Midterm Elections: Focus on Michigan 8-20-26

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fascinating because the incumbent is the progressive champion here. And that's kind of a different playbook, a different storyline than in a lot of these democratic races. And the other key thing at play here, of course, is the democratic push for generational change, which has been very successful up until now, but it doesn't seem to be working. That's one of Seth Moulton's big cases, as he makes against Ed Markey, who's been in Congress. A lot longer than a lot of people have been alive. Indeed, and longer than most people have been alive. Boston Globe had it at 14% the lead for Ed Markey. 28% was the UMass Amherst lead for Ed Markey over Seth Moulton. And Mikie Sherrill had an interesting point in that folks are, in Chen Herview, are just looking for candidates that are promising. change and are promising to shake up the establishment and that it doesn't really matter in her view what their what their politics or even you know policies are to a large degree but this situation in massachusetts shows a little bit different because at the end of the day um Ed Markey and set Seth Moulton are going to probably vote the exact same in the united states senate And I thought that there would be more of a impetus for there to be new leadership, for there to be some sort of a change, but that has not been, you know, the case so far in the polling. And, you know, we shall see, obviously, how that race progresses. What are we seeing in terms of polling out in Michigan? And again, we talk about polling, and I don't know how much stock we should put in it given what we've seen. recently, but what is the sense in regard to the polling, but also what's going on in the ground in Michigan between Abdul El-Sayed and Rogers? There have been two real, I think only two polls in the last week or two since the primary two weeks ago. Our Fox News poll came out last week and it had Rogers up by four points and it indicated that Abdul El-Sayed was struggling. I put a piece out on this struggling to unify Democrats, which was understandable because it was a very divisive primary, obviously on the Democratic side, whereas Rogers had no real opposition in cruising to the GOP nomination. But another poll from Susquehanna just came out yesterday and it indicated that El Cyanne up by seven points. So, you know, scratch your head, right? I don't know. I don't know. The only poll that matters, of course, we always say this, is the one on primary day or election day. And stay tuned for that. We spoke about two months ago, a little over two months ago until the midterms. But early voting, of course, in a lot of states, we'll be kicking off next month. Yeah, it feels like a close race. And I feel that in this election cycle more than that any other, you kind of have to throw the polling out. And because everything has been all over the place, we don't know what the turnout is going to be. Pollsters are trying to, in my view, figure out the turnout and the election environment and, you know, what's going to be a Republican voter intensity versus Democratic voter intensity, what are dependents going to do?

are they're going to be more progressive voters than non-progressive. There's a lot of different scenarios out there, and polling has been off for a period of time. So to me, you know, you've got to kind of throw it out at this point in time and get a sense for where things are on the ground, candidate strengths and weaknesses and all that and try to make a determination as to where things are headed. To me, this is one of the harder races that's, since I've been doing this, to try to determine what is, in fact, going on because you have a sense about voter sentiment and that voter sentiment is frustration with the status quo as a whole and frustration with this president. Absolutely. Absolutely. We've been talking about this for over a year and a half now. Republicans are facing a really tough political climate, traditional headwinds, the unpopular war in Iran, persistent inflation, and President Trump's very underwater approval ratings. But, you know, Republicans think they have some new ammunition, and that is the Democratic, far-left Democratic and even socialist victories in some of these primaries over the past couple of months. I interviewed Mike Johnson, the House Speaker. up in Maine earlier this week. And that's one of his big themes now as well. And he tries to save the House majority for Republicans. So they think they've got the, you know, the magic ticket for November. We'll see. Paul, always appreciate your time before we're talking soon. That's a great day. Paul Steinazer joining us this morning from Michigan on the HRC, your neighbor credit union guest line. Coming up next hour on the program, we're joined by the U.S. Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, who is in New Hampshire. We'll talk energy prices with him, the U.S. war in Iran that coming up at 720 this morning. So I'm sure you tune in for that. I am Chris Ryan. Thanks for being with us here on this Thursday morning for the mill yard in Manchester. This is New Hampshire today.

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