6/22/26: Iran Talks Nearly Collapse, Neocons Try To Tank Deal, Americans Want War To End

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We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com. Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. I have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Pristle? Indeed, we do. So, rocky start to the negotiations yesterday, but JD Mans this morning is claiming that progress was made.

Jeremy Scahill is going to join us to break down what we know. Hawks, of course, still out there doing their thing, Lindsey Graham with some interesting comments, which we are forced to take note of. Polling shows the American people correctly believe that the Iran war was a completely disaster, which we lost, so they are in touch with reality there. New frightening revelations about anthropics mythos, also Trump weighing in on their decision to effectively block their latest release, Fable Five. National Guard has been deployed to the reflecting pool.

Make sure there's no savateurs, figure out what's going on. Trump is saying now they're going to have to drain it again. He's like making up all sorts of conspiracy theories about Antifa, you know, messing up the reflecting pool. Anyway, it's a silly story, but we have to pay attention to it because he made such a big deal about it. So here we are. And then there are big primary elections in New York City this week. Zohran Mamdani has endorsed a number of candidates in their primary races. Two of those candidates are going to join me and Ryan Live.

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Rate us five stars. It really helps other people find the show. But let's go ahead and kick it off with this morning, literally just minutes ago, the vice president giving a press conference updates from these high-level negotiations between who is it, Pakistan, Qatar, the Iranians, and the United States. So it was a little bit touch and go yesterday. We'll get to that in a moment. But the vice president this morning is claiming some significant progress. Let's go ahead and play A1.

Yesterday was a very, very good day. We made a lot of good progress. We did exactly what we wanted to do, which has accomplished four things for the American people. First, we wanted to build a mechanism for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. It is open. We've seen, of course, gas prices and oil prices come down, millions and millions of barrels of crude and natural gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz that weren't flowing before. But we also wanted to make sure that we actually set up the coordination mechanism so that we could demine the Straits of Hormuz so that when there are the conflicts that inevitably come up, we can make sure we work through them rather than that leading to escalation, and that is exactly what we did yesterday. Number two, we also wanted to build a mechanism, a similar mechanism, for deconfliction for the regional ceasefire.

As the President of the United States, as himself said, sometimes these ceasefires just mean you're shooting a little bit less, but we wanted to make sure that we had the proper coordination set up so that if there is shooting, if Hezbollah fires at Israel, or if Israel responds, if there are other conflicts that arise in the region, we're actually talking to each other and figuring out how to stop the shooting, how to make the region safer, our allies, and everybody else. We set that up as well. Number three, we, and this is probably what we're most excited about as Americans, the Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country. That is a major milestone for the American people and the first step in permanently denuclearizing or permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran.

So the vice president, they're selling the Iranians' willingness to allow IAEA inspectors in as a big win for the U.S. Of course, this was the sort of thing that was on the table before all the bombs fell. But nevertheless, let's put that aside. The other piece that he really elaborates there is this deconfliction process in what he describes as a regional ceasefire. Of course, that centers on Israel and Lebanon. And there are continued bombing of Hezbollah and of Beirut and the southern Lebanon area. He was asked to elaborate further on that, obviously that being a very key piece of whether or not this deal will go forward. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

Would you describe the progress on Lebanon? I know Mr. Abbas Araghchi said it was very good progress, but what's your characterization of it? Yeah, I would describe it as very good progress, too. I mean, look, we want a regional ceasefire, right? We want Hezbollah to stop firing at our friends in Israel. We want Israelis to be able to live in peace. We also want to make sure that, you know, when things happen, they don't spiral into a broader escalation. And so we've been, I think, very good at setting up what we're calling a deconfliction mechanism,

but what it really is is to say that when things happen, the sides are actually talking to one another. Sometimes, you know, you've got a bit of a chicken and egg problem, that you've got a junior guy who fires a drone that didn't have approval from the high command. Okay, of course, Israel has to respond to that. But then sometimes that response, we could actually have a better and more peaceful situation if Israel, Israel responds in the context of a conversation that's ongoing between Hezbollah, Lebanon, Israel, and other partners in the region. There really hasn't been a mechanism to have those discussions until basically around 4 p.m. yesterday, Bergenstock time, when we set that up. So that is the U.S. side. The joint mediators, Qatar and Pakistan also put out a statement.

We can put a zero up on the screen. A lot of this is, I'll read a little bit of this, The first session of high-level talks under the framework have concluded with the participation of representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran, United States of America, and the two mediating parties was conducted in a positive and constructive atmosphere, encouraging progress has been made, including the creation of a mechanism for further technical talks. A lot of this is sort of like the first day of class when you like get the syllabus and establish the rules of the road. That's sort of what we're talking about here. Let's put the next element up on the screen. This is the reaction from the Iranian side. They are also, this is ARAC, foreign minister, also touting progress here. He says tireless Pakistani and Qatari mediation is delivered major progress to end the

Lebanon war. Oil and petrochem exports are waived. Blockade lifted. Some frozen assets released and major reconstruction and development plan launched for Iran first real test, Lebanon deconfliction cell, which I think is probably spot on. So you can see Sagar both sides sort of touting the things that they see that they're getting out of these negotiations after the first day. Yeah, my immediate reaction, actually, first of all, obviously, the vice president,

the American side really needs positivity for the oil market, especially considering all the chaos that we're about to go through. But from the Iranian side, you know, setting things up for, quote, deep confliction cell, the way that the vice president, I'm reading some more of his comments by text this morning sold it is basically like that hotline that the U.S. and the Kremlin have to avoid nuclear conflict. It allows a formal mechanism through which if something kicks off in Lebanon, the United States, Qatar, Pakistan, Israel, and Hezbollah, or presumably Iran as well, are all in some sort of mechanism thing to be like, okay, here's how we're going to work out. Now, this requires an immense

amount of trust to say that the Israelis will be doing that properly, and we'll show you all here in a little bit the way that they're sounding the way that they will approach this in their own country. So don't trust them for a single second. But it does show a couple of immediate, at least in the interim, an actual dedication to wanting to reign in the Lebanon conflict. But that remains the single biggest problem. I will say on the technical side, one detail that's very important from what you read there about the actual way that this is going to be worked out. And actually, this should give you more of confidence in this. Is it effectively right now, the United States is delegating the technical responsibility of the details to Qatar and to Pakistan,

who actually have worked genuinely tirelessly over the last 100 days or so to get us to this moment. If it was just up to Jared and Steve Witkoff, we're screwed in terms of the seriousness of whether that's going to happen. However, when you have the Pakistanis and the Qataris, who over the next 60 days will actually be negotiating a lot of this stuff and you get the IAEA back involved, then it is very possible that we actually could end up with some sort of technical deal. So that's actually a very positive development, in my opinion, from the U.S., but overall, I mean, this is the vice president. He's not the president. And as we're all about to show you, you know, I have no doubt in my mind.

If JD Vance was the president of the United States, we wouldn't have much. First of all I don't think we'd be in this damn war. But second, I don't think that we'd be having all this, like, will they, won't they, or any of this? He has made repeated statements about Israel is just like in any other country. They have a right to self-defense. So does everybody in the region. You're like, oh, what was that? You know, in terms of self-defense.

But Trump can change his mind at any moment. same guy who got us into this mess in the first place, and as we're all about to show you, nearly destroyed the talks. I mean, do you think that JD in the middle of the talks would lean across the table and threaten to kill the negotiators? Probably not.

But that's what Trump did. Literally while the negotiations were in route, which kicked off this whole will-they-won-wet mess as it starts. So that's the problem, is Trump is the wild card on top of all of this, and ultimately he can very easily kill this entire thing. He's the leader, he's the president.

We're looking and trying to analyze the words, the vice president, I have no doubt that he actually wants the deal. Where's the Secretary of State? National Security Advisor, the most powerful national security official in 50 years. I'm cool with him taking a backseat for the moment. You and I are too. But he's still there. You know, right now he's on the phone to Columbia, you know, like, but maybe he'll turn around and he'll take a look over there. You know, we're going to do an entire segment soon about all the hawks and their plans. So I, like, do not count these people out. Yeah. Not just the Israel lobby, but a lot of the elements in the Trump administration too. Absolutely. The two big confess

Founding factors here are Trump's ego and Israel and Trump's ego really reared its ugly head yesterday and threatened to blow up the talks before they even began. He did an interview with Fox News, Trey Ginkst and threatened the Iranians that understandably caused a lot of upset from them. It actually is in violation of the terms of the 14-point deal, the first element, I believe, of which is, hey, we're not going to threaten each other anymore. Trump violates that immediately. So let's go ahead and take a listen to A2.

President Trump tells Fox News he spoke with Iranian officials overnight and said, you close it and you won't have a country. He went on to tell these officials, you won't even make it back to your effing country. Now, earlier today, Iran's president, Masoud Pasekian, said this about Iranian enrichment of uranium. The president's also reacting to that. Take a listen. We will not give up our right to enrichment. And they, too, will be forced to accept You all know what the so-called president of the United States was saying.

He had made a complete 100-degree turn. He was saying that Iran must surrender unconditionally. Iran has no right to do this. It has no right to do that. President Trump, during our call, responded directly to those comments by Iranian President Masoud Pazekin. President Trump told Fox News, he better watch his mouth. He better shape up or will take over the rest of the country.

Better shape up. Threatens to literally murder them before they leave the negotiations. So obviously not helpful. He also posted this to true social. I can put this up on the screen. Iran must immediately stop their highly paid proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don't, we will hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week only harder. So threatening them also over Lebanon. Iran appeared early on to walk out. And actually there were multiple news reports and Wall Street Journal and other, you know, mainstream outlets and in Iranian media, claiming that they had walked out of negotiations all together before they even commenced. We can put a four up on the screen. You can see the moment when that's a Abbas Araghchi on the screen there. He's meeting, you know, he's speaking with a Pakistani official, and then he exits the room. There was also a whole thing about, you know, they didn't do the photo op. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf didn't do the photo op that they were supposed to do in Possack as well.

But it appears that after this initial situation, you can see JD Vance getting the word. They're like, what is happening? What's going on? And he comes over and speaks with one of the officials to figure out what is happening. But apparently, after this initial walkout, they did come back to the table and continue the discussions. We can also put a five up on the screen here. This is over the Lebanon issue, which continues to be a major problem because Israel refuses to withdraw. from Lebanon, which also appears to be in violation of the terms of the memorandum of understanding

that was signed that says that Lebanese national sovereignty will be respected. I would think that would require an invading army to withdraw from the territory. In any case, Iran said that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz over Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Let's put a six up on the screen here just to take a look at the tanker traffic. American officials are really trying to tout out the straits back open and, you know, vessels are transiting through. You can see that we, are nowhere near back to the levels that things were at prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So we're in a bit of a Schrodinger's straight of Hormuz situation right now. Is it open as it closed? Hard to say. But perhaps Jeremy Ska-Hil can illuminate the situation

for us, as he always does. It's open-ish, you know, kind of open, depending on how you look at it. But as you said, we got Jeremy here. I'm sure he's been on the phone overnight. He's going to update us on the Iranian side. their understanding, so let's get to it. OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews,

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Thanks for having me back. So what do you make of the on again, off again, nature of the talks yesterday, JD Vance's positive comment. this morning? What do you think came out of the first day of negotiations? I think it's important to remember there's a really ferocious debate happening right now in Iran among the kind of most important political echelons in the country. And there's a very vibrant debate among the broader public in Iran about whether or not the Iranians should even be meeting with JD Vance or certainly with Donald Trump, given that they assassinated the Supreme Leader of Iran and were responsible for more than 3,000 deaths.

of Iranians during the course of this war that began on February 28th. So even before their plane landed, there was a lot of pushback on the idea that they would have any sort of a photo op with JD Vance or potentially Donald Trump if he had decided to attend. At the same time, you had Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israelis doing their best to try to preemptively sabotage this by expanding their massive bombing of Lebanon, their ground operations in Lebanon. And so even before the Iranian plane landed in Switzerland, the Iranian military had announced that it had closed again the Strait of Hormuz. And so you had that as the kind of backdrop to all of this. And so when Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the two lead Iranian negotiators, walked out of that

photo op and then marched down the hallway, it was multifaceted rationale as to why exactly they did that. And, you know, I was told when there were reports emerging that the Iranians had canceled the talk, a senior Iranian official told me right away. That's just simply not true, that this was an action that our delegation needed to take. The Iranians still very much view themselves as having leverage. You know, you mentioned also Donald Trump's, like, sociopathic threats to assassinate the Iranian negotiators if they didn't sort of capitulate to his demands. This has been Trump's behavior for a very long time. And you can contrast that with the kind of level nature of 80 JD Vance is talking. And part of the reason why they have JD Vance there is probably because

JD Vance is able to keep his cool here. And I think there are real questions. You know, we talked about on this show before. The Iranians brought in senior psychologists to assess Donald Trump. And they felt that when the psychologists got involved, that the messaging started being received in a much better way with Donald Trump. They were talking about it clinically. When Trump behaves like this and he's basically saying, we're going to assassinate you, it makes perfect sense why the Iranians would believe that it's necessary to have, you know, psychological professionals involved with these kinds of talks. And remember, too, the Israelis did try to assassinate the Hamas negotiators late last year in Qatar while they were gathering to deliberate over a proposal that Donald Trump

had delivered to them. So it's not just sort of empty threats being hurled out here. So I would say that the current situation is like this. The Israeli. Israelis may be forced to cease their fire for some period of time in Lebanon. It does seem from what Vice President JD Vance said that the U.S. position is that the Israelis are going to remain entrenched, at least in some portions of southern Lebanon, if not in all of the positions they're in for the time being. They're talking about doing some experimental zoning of a ceasefire. But the Iranians, I think, have made it very clear to the world and certainly to the United

States that they consider Lebanon a red line. whether the Iranians will allow the sort of negotiations to proceed even while Israeli troops are entrenched in Lebanon is another question. Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, did indicate last week that in communications to Hezbollah, he said that this would be something that would be addressed in the context of the bigger negotiations over a broader deal. So Benjamin Netanyahu clearly is going to want to try to sabotage this. As for the sort of particulars, yes, technical teams are negotiating. but it appears as though the United States, again, didn't actually bring its own high-level nuclear experts. You know, the Iranians, again, they show up with a suite of individuals with PhDs, multidisciplinary, and the U.S. largely shows up with JD Vance and a couple of guys

carrying last week's golf scores. So it's, you know, the idea that JD Vance has to be calling international nuclear experts at 2 a.m., as he indicated in his press conference today, that should really raise a lot of eyebrows. Why isn't the U.S. sending very serious negotiators on the nuclear issue if, as Donald Trump says, that was the most important point of this at all? Well, all you need to do, they can just dust off the JCPOA, get quad to go through, update the dates, change a little bit of language. And there you go. Yeah, if anything, Jeremy, we already did it. So maybe we don't need to worry too much.

I had said earlier in the show, I'm curious for your reaction. It appears my reading is that they've just given up on the technical details. and they're going to allow Qatar and Pakistan to negotiate them with the IAEA, then deliver it, signed sealed, and delivered. This kind of gives them a little bit of removal from the process. Also, frankly, easier to just delegate much of this. Curious reaction to that. That was my reading of the Pakistan memorandum. Yeah, I mean, again, let's remember, too, that the Omanis were really the expert mediators between the United States and Iran,

and because of Steve Witkoff's behavior and the White House's behavior, they toxified the relationship with the most knowledgeable force that the U.S. had been working with for decades on this issue. The Qatari's have really emerged as the primary mediators right now. Yes, Pakistan gets to put its signature on these documents, but it's quite clear that Qatar is now in the prime position taking the lead on all of this. And I think we have to remember, again, a concession that President Trump made that is very important is that he basically said, we don't actually need the enriched uranium to be taken outside of Iran. We can deal with it inside of Iran. That's been the Iranian position going back a year, going back many years when they're talked

about potential framework for negotiation. So the Iranians also feel that they won a coup of sorts because Donald Trump is no longer saying they're not allowed to do any enrichment whatsoever if they reach a deal with the United States. That's a massive concession if you just go back a few months or even a few weeks to what Donald Trump was saying. But I think your suspicion in part is true. not be limited to the Qataris or the Pakistanis. It also seems like the U.S. wants to kind of co-op

the IAEA, which is supposed to be a neutral international body, into effectively being the U.S. enforcer of this. That's why they're pushing for IAEA inspectors or monitors to go into Iran very soon. But, you know, if you go back and you look at the roster that the U.S. brought, just from an American perspective, it doesn't matter if you're Democrat or a Republican, just look at it from a purely technical perspective. It's good diplomacy and responsible statecraft to bring actual experts that also have security clearances in your country, that also know how to prepare information that can be brief to the president of the United States. When you're outsourcing these core issues that the president has defined as the single

most important issue to the IAEA or to Qatar or to Pakistan, then you're sort of saying, well, we don't need American expertise in the room. And it just goes to show you, again, it's another indicator of how kind of fraudulent the entire architecture of justifiable. this war was from the very beginning. Yeah, that is so well said. Let's talk a little bit more about Benjamin Netanyahu in Lebanon. As you indicated, you know, they do not seem like they are willing to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

Let's go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of Benjamin Netanyahu's recent comments on that front. As long as we need to protect our people, we will remain in the security zone in South Lebanon. And the reason, the reason is perfectly understood. No country would be asked to do otherwise. Now, you imagine the United States across the border. You have thousands, an army of thousands of terrorists who pellet your cities and your towns with rockets and ballistic missiles and killer drones.

They kill your soldiers, they kill your citizens, they kill your children. And they threaten them every day. Well, what would America do? Would it say, well, there's nothing we can do? Jeremy, the memo of understanding explicitly talks about Lebanese sovereignty. Is this going to be acceptable to the Iranians? I suspect it won't. I mean, it will be if, if in fact, Donald Trump and JD Vance are able to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu

and the Israelis genuinely do stop firing, then I think there is a window open where the Iranians can then say, okay, there is a quote-unquote cessation of fire happening right now, and now we need to address the issue of the withdrawal, and that may by some time. And again, Abbas Araghchi has indicated that that may be the reality the Iranians would be willing to accept. On the flip side of this, Benjamin Netanyahu in particular, has a real expertise in violating ceasefires. You know, Rafat al-Aarir, the Palestinian poet and writer from Gaza who was assassinated by the Israelis during the genocide, often remarked that the Israeli definition of a ceasefire is that we, fire and you cease. And we're certainly seeing that in Gaza, where the Israelis have killed more

than a thousand Palestinians since the so-called ceasefire was signed in October. And so I would suspect that if Benjamin Netanyahu tries to replicate that definition of a ceasefire, that this is going to become a potential deal breaker every single time there's an incident. There's a parallel track happening, which if you listen to what President Trump and JD Vance have said, they're a little bit contradicting each other over the weekend in the messaging. Donald Trump is supposed to claiming that he's going to get Ahmed al-Sharaa, the president of Syria, that he claims he personally installed in power, that somehow a former al-Qaeda leader is going to lead the charge to dismantle and destroy Hezbollah in another state inside of Lebanon.

Ahmed al-Sharaa gave an interview to Lebanese TV, where he seemed to push back against that and talked about respecting the sovereignty of Lebanon and then saying that he's willing to engage with leaders of Hezbollah and others. So at least publicly, he's indicating that that's not going to happen, even though Trump was sort of saying, oh, the final touches are being put on this new war. We're going to start involving the Syrians going into Lebanon, which would be an utter bloodbath and an insane bit of lunacy even by Trump standards. But then you have JD Vance saying some interesting things. He says that the agreement talks about the territorial integrity of Lebanon. Now, the Iranians say that means you can't have Israeli occupation forces there.

JD Vance seemed to indicate that it needs to be aimed at resolving the issue of Hezbollah. And this is why there's this other track where they're trying to co-opt, the United States and Israel are trying to co-op the Lebanese government under President Joseph Aoun into essentially serving as the Lebanese counterterrorism force that's going to go in and crush Hezbollah. So I would imagine what JD Vance is kind of trying to prepare the public for or what indicates the U.S. position, behind closed doors, is that they're going to try to say, we can get the Israelis to leave as long as the Lebanese army, which is trained in part and supported by the United States, and this is what Israel has been calling for. If we can get the Lebanese army to come in and take over Hezbollah positions, that also is reasserting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon.

That, though, raises questions of civil war, civil strife, civil conflict in Lebanon. when you don't have a political resolution in a Lebanese context to the question of Hezbollah, which is not just an armed actor in the region. It also has members of parliament affiliated with it. And up until recently was actually a crucial part of the government before it was sort of forced out of it. So it does seem like JD Vance's track on this is to try to merge this secondary peace, so-called peace process that the White House has been orchestrating with this MOU. and the idea is that the U.S. could sort of pick two flowers with one hand by saying,

oh, we're stopping the Israelis from firing. And by the way, the Lebanese army is now going to take up positions in the south of Lebanon, which will be resisted by a lot of supporters of Hezbollah. So this issue is going to get very, very complicated. It's the single greatest issue that has the potential to blow the entire deal up, in part because the Iranians have made it abundantly clear that they view Hezbollah as their ally, that they view Hezbollah as a party to this, and that they view the United States and Israel in violation of the deal as long as that war continues.

Right. Yeah, it's not like they're just going to surrender, you know, their own, like you said, look, this is a decades-long problem inside of Lebanon. They're not just going to cede all of their own authority, hard fought in this particular case, to the Lebanese government, especially if it's under control of the United States. Last thing, I do want to clear up something I said earlier where I mentioned that the deconfliction cell would include Israel. Currently, the initial report, Jeremy, is it actually won't include Israel. I'm not sure. I mean, maybe that's a good thing if the United States would actually to tell Israel what to do and what not to do. At the same time, per Benjamin Netanyahu's comments, they're not going to stop the number or the types of strikes that are continuing to do in Lebanon. So it does

seem as if that may not be useful, this so-called deconfliction cell, if it is not going to actually be able to restrain Israeli behavior, which I feel like is a common theme. I mean, it also speaks in part. Again, we don't know what what's happening behind the scenes between the United States and Israel at this point. But the Israelis are also ferociously trying to resist themselves being partied to this Iran deal. I mean, that's Benjamin Netanyahu's messaging, is that Donald Trump, as president of the United States, has a right to make a deal with Iran, but Israel is not bound by those terms. It's what he's using to justify their continued presence in Lebanon. He's going to try to spin any sort of agreement that he makes that clearly is related to the

MOU as having to do with the bilateral relationship between the United States. and the bilateral relationship Israel has with the Lebanese government, and to avoid it being that they're making some deal that's an omnibus package. But in the issue of this deconfliction, you know, when they implemented a similar monitoring mechanism for Gaza, the fact that they didn't include the Palestinian side sent a very clear message that this was just a U.S. Israeli project that was operating under the veneer of being some kind of a monitoring cell.

I think in this case, what JD Vance is talking about with the establishment of this is literally to try to stop the Israelis from blowing up the deal and to try to have a mechanism to speak directly to the Iranians. They also opened a line of communication that has to do with the straight of Hormoz. But in the broader picture, if we zoom up to 30,000 feet, I think we have to look at this as kind of two separate but related tracks. On the one hand, we have the short-term realities that the Israeli war in Lebanon has the potential to really blow up this deal. And I would also add to that Donald Trump's erratic behavior. The Iranians are fed up with him making these public threats, and they're under pressure from their own government. Remember, the supreme leader of Iran did not wholly endorse this MOU.

He simply granted consent for Iran's political leaders to move forward with these negotiations. And there are a lot of Iranians, including prominent members of the Iranian parliament, who are adamantly opposed to what Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi are doing, meeting with JD Vance, So all of those things together create very unstable terrain that this is operating on. But then in the longer term, yes, the Iranians do seem to be succeeding in getting some of their assets unfrozen. JD Vance said this thing about they need to import American soy, American corn. We'll have to see what the Iranians say about that deal. But in the longer term, if this moves on and the Iranians are not getting substantial sanctions relief and the nuclear issue, Donald Trump could blow the whole thing up and say, oh, wait a minute, no, we do.

need to go in and take the nuclear dust. We actually have to send the Marines in to retrieve this. The whole thing could go south very, very fast. The Iranians, the most important thing to them in terms of the war is they feel that they've succeeded in restoring deterrence, that no matter what Donald Trump says or Lindsey Graham saying, oh, the next step is Donald Trump's going to go in and seize the Strait of Hormo's, good luck with that without losing a substantial number of American soldiers. I mean, that's lunacy. The kind of lunacy Lindsey Graham has put his banked his entire career on, But just to show you how the neocon nut cases in Washington think about this, you just need to watch any comments from Lindsey Graham.

But I think the Iranians feel like they have a win-win in a sense. Yes, I think they would prefer comprehensive sanctions relief, a state of non-aggression with the United States, an ability to sort of allow their society to thrive free of suffocating sanctions. I think all of that is true. But it's also true that there is political support at the highest levels of power in Iran for taking a much harder line and saying, if the. The United States doesn't learn its lesson. We keep slapping them back. And by slapping we made using the option of military force or asymmetric tactics to shut down the global economy

as it depends on the Strait of Hormuz. That was actually the last piece I wanted to get from you. We could put A6 back up on the screen. This is the tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. You know, Trump, in what I think was an honest moment, said that it would be Bedlam. If we kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, the oil markets would be a disaster. We know that oil executives came to him and basically like, listen, buddy, we've kept it together here so far. Basically, China has saved our asses by reducing their imports of oil significantly, but this can't go on forever. What is your understanding of the current state of play of the Strait of Hormuz? Because we talked earlier about how Iran has said that they have closed it again

or limiting traffic again because of Israeli violations of the MOU in Lebanon. I mean, I think this is another staggering admission off the cuff by Donald Trump. And it just shows the hubris. You know, he thought, oh, this thing is all sewn up. I have it. The stock market's going to be celebrating me again. And we're going to have the, you know, price of oil is going to plummet. And the Iranians.

And I think they also understood the market manipulation tactics at play here. I think they timed their closure of the Strait of Hormuz in sync with Trump's constant recurring attempts to manipulate markets by making certain. decisions public on the various stages of the negotiations. But I think it's quite clear that Iran has a very firm handle of control over the Strait of Hormuz. This was something that the Iranians had contemplated doing for many, many years. It's not like this was just something they cooked up when the United States and Israel bombed February 28th. They understood the global impact that was going to have. And they stopped short of doing this during other wars. I think because they felt like this

is going to be a tool we'll bring out when we feel we're facing an existential threat. And now that they've done it, and now that they've emerged with their state intact, with their government intact, and with the world being quite nervous about the idea of another war in Iran, and combine that with Donald Trump's admission about the actual cost of this and how close the United States came to an even further catastrophic economic situation, I think it ultimately puts cards back in the hands of the Iranians. Well said, Jeremy. Thank you for your analysis, man. Really spot on. Appreciate you guys. Thanks for all your work.

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Okay, not so fun fact. Autoimmune skin conditions are actually on the rise. Cases are climbing nearly 20% every year. I know. Terrible opener for a podcast ad. But here's the thing. I'm Holly Fry and our skin exists precisely because of stats like that. Because more people than ever are living with conditions like psoriasis and hydrodinine. separativa, and most of them are doing it alone, without answers, without community, without

anyone to tell them what the heck is actually going on. You know, not that many people knew about it, and I felt kind of alone, like, am I an outcast? That's where we come in. We talk doctors. We talk appointments that are, well, a disappointment. We talk about the flare-ups and the breakthroughs. Then we dive deep into the wild, occasionally gross, always fascinating history of how humans have tried to understand our skin over the centuries. Spoiler alert, we did not always get it right. Listen to season three of Our Skin, a personal discovery podcast on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Aging is real, and so are the benefits of adding vital proteins, collagen peptides to your daily routine.

New vital proteins, collagen, sparkling water. Your daily clover. up now in three fresh flavors. Strawberry blossom, lemon, lime, and blood orange. Improved skin health in as little as 30 days thanks to collagen peptides? Cheers to that. Or go with our classic collagen peptides. So you can stay vital, stay you. Visit vital proteins.com to learn more and where to buy. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. As Jeremy said, we really got to watch out for Lindsey Graham, and that is exactly the plan that is being hatched out in the open here. in Washington, where many of the Hawks are quasi endorsing the diplomatic process that we just ran through.

But they have an alternative plan, an alternative plan that perhaps Trump has already opened the door to. Here is Lindsey Graham on Face the Nation this weekend advocating for this new plan of just taking over the entire Strait of Hormuz. Let's take a listen. Let's try a diplomatic solution. I think it's going to fail. What happens next? I spent four and a half hours with President Trump Friday. Here's what I think will happen next.

If this deal fails, President Trump is going to take the Strait of Hormuz over by force. The United States will control the Strait of Hormuz. We'll charge a fee for all those who go through to pay for the operation. And we're going to expand the Abraham Accords in calendar year 2026. We're going to get Saudi Arabia joined to Abraham Accords, which is the biggest change in 5,000 years in the Mideast. And if Iran contest control of the Strait of Hormuz by. the United States will obliterate them. So to all the people listening, if this diplomatic effort fails, President Trump is going to take the Strait of Hormuz, we're going to run it.

We're going to try to get Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham, of course, into Arab-Israeli conflict in 2026. And if Iran continues to attack Israel and Lebanon, the new policy will be, we'll hit Iran. The new policy will be we'll hit Iran if Hezbollah continues to hit Israel, and we'll just take over the Strait of Hormuzon. Now, obviously, this is just completely nuts, taking over the straight by force. They act like it's going to be some sort of weekend adventure. This would take hundreds of thousands of troops. Also, once they're there, if the rest of Iran's not conquered, they can use these little

things called drones that we all just saw to fire them from the inland to the troops that are all stationed there. Brandon Weikert actually laid all of this out initially when we were discussing much of this. It would be Gallipoli. It would be a complete military disaster. But this is still something that Trump is. considering. Let's put B2 up here on the screen. He said it just yesterday. There will be no tolls

in the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days during the ceasefire period. There will be no tolls after the 60 period has expired. Unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed for services rendered as the guardian angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs. Thank you for your attention. for our involvement in the region over the past 26 years. Yeah. It's been great. Yes, we are the guardian angel, the guardians of the strait of Hormuz.

They can make a Marvel movie about it. All of it would be funny if this is not, you know, this is the thing about Trump. This is what we warned about earlier is, yeah, right now he's silent. If we were to think about Trump, Trump is ultimately, you know, from the apprentice, which is probably the, you know, sole reason why he's president of the United States. What does he do? He auditions different things. So you could think of the Iran War.

as an audition for the Lindsey Graham and for Marco Rubio and for himself, of course, because he bears responsibility, Benjamin Netanyahu. They obviously failed. So now he's like, okay, let's shelve Marco Rubio, let's shelve that, and let's break out the alternate cast for The Apprentice, the JD Van. But the problem is that he is hovering on top of it,

and these nefarious actors, BB and Lindsey Graham, and the entire Hawk Commentariat class, which is seriously pushing this option, and is telling him, sir, you gave up too early, you can easily go back to it. This is, you know, I gave an analogy in our last show about this, about the First World War, where, you know, a lot of Germans were shocked when they surrendered because Germany had never been invaded. So they're like, how can this be possible? And that's where the Israeli idea, which they're borrowing from, ironically, from the Germans of

1919, which eventually became the Nazis, is the stabbed in the back theory. And they were, the only conceivable reason that they had to surrender was that they were stabbed in the back. And there were all these fantasy military options that they had on the table, which were all bullshit. But, you know, they could, 20 years later, they could be like, no, we could have done this. It's kind of like lost causers who, like, will analyze General Longstreet, Gettysburg.

If you had just done this, they would have won. Oh, my God. Yeah, I've met too many of them. But the point is around this, is that they're creating a mythos in real time, and the power of that is really strong because thereby propping that up with Fox News, and you will never hear a defender

of the deal on Fox News. You'll never hear a deal, defender of the deal, even on CNN, honestly. It's insanity. Like, did you see that Kaitlan Collins thing where she's like, whoa, what? Iran has a right to self-defense? You're like, yeah, all nations do. Is that so crazy? But as this starts to bubble itself up, and let's say things start popping off in Lebanon,

and the Iranians, oh, I don't know, walk out because they're like, hey, that's our red line. How easy do you think this will be to cement into Trump's mind? It's going to be nonstop. Remember, Fox and Friends, Brian Kilmeade, he's against. this thing. He's been trashing it every single day. You got Sean Hannity and Jesse. Jesse Waters seems to be somewhat on board. I don't know. His IQ is low enough. But then the rest of these guys, they're very, very smart political actors. So I'm just, I'm watching this very, very closely.

This is why we must protect Treata Parsi at all cost. Because he's one of the few reasonable voices just because he is so, like, impressive and elegant of a person that they allow on to CNN, at least in the mainstream press. But the thing I note most about Lindsey Graham's posture here, which is really we have to pay attention to. As he says, sure, let's try the negotiations. They're going to fail. And he is invested in that failure. He will be involved in doing everything he can to make sure that that failure comes to pass.

We covered last week. Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing, you know, Mark Levin and Ted Cruz and their other sort of like bought off or influence peddlers here in the U.S. to make sure they're doing what they can to undermine this deal. So when he says they'll probably fail, it's not like he's just. just some disinterested observer, you know, guessing what's going to happen here. He is going to be doing everything that he can to make sure that is going to fail. We did have to bring you this, though, because this is an incredible turn of events for

Bacha Ungar Sargan, who has been one of Trump's fiercest defenders, you know, saying that he truly is this, this warrior. Yeah, this warrior for the working class, et cetera. But, you know, she's also very pro-Israel. And so she has been really critical of the deal and the possibility of negotiations here. Let's go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of her commentary talking about what a terrible week JD Vance had because he went out and actually said some honest things about Israel for once. Let's take a listen. JD Vance implied that all opponents to this terrible MOU are warhawks who want a forever war and boots on the ground, who have some kind of bloodthirst for endless Iranian deaths. just an appalling straw man.

I don't know anyone who wants boots on the ground. The whole point of the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was that we didn't need boots on the ground. And while JD Vance spent all week talking about how cool the IRGC is, he repeatedly blasted Israel, Israelis, and Israeli politicians, inventing bizarre scenarios in which he fantasized about how many Iranians Israel wanted to kill. Here's how he ended his press conference.

Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time. And he happens to be the head of state of the world's superpower. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have. And anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation. that country is in. Apparently, according to our vice president, you've got to hand it to the Iranians for negotiating in good faith. It's Israel that's the real impediment to peace.

Trust the plan. This woman sucked up to them so aggressively. We internally nicknamed her Baghdad Batchie, because she was always on the pro-Trump talking points going on CNN to make the case. That's how she ends up with this news nation gig, et cetera. And after all of that, the moment she criticizes them on one thing, they turn on her and say she is a moron who needs an additional brain cell. Well, in some way, look, how can you not love it, right?

Because currently the entire, this is the thing about Trump and the entire ecosystem, which genuinely makes this all fair in 1984, because a month ago, she and the entire neocon industrial complex who were defending the deal were being celebrated, really, by these same White House accounts. And the people like us who were criticizing it, we would be the ones under attack. But in the same way that it's like, you know, Oceana has always been a, at war with Eurasia or whatever. It's like now that the deal is Trump's policy, now you're doubting the president.

But that's part of why I love it is because these same people, for literally months, made it, I've said this, like, have made a whole show about Trump is so independent. He cannot be controlled. The idea that Israel controls him is preposterous. He makes his own decisions. And then he did make his own decision. And he was like, actually, the war that you guys wanted was a total disaster. So we're going to try something else.

So they cry about it. And he can use the same logic. You can actually see many of his own allies now, our proponents of the deal, using the same language of police. They're like, why are you distrusting Trump? Why don't you trust the plan? You sound like a panicking.

Why are you not? Why are you doubting the wisdom of our great commander-in-chief? And he's the one who selected our vice president, right? And so, look, this is why, you know, trying to engage in this, like, who is the true, you know, speaker for the czar is ridiculous. Just say your ideas. Like, say your ideas on what they are.

And if you don't, you know, sometimes they'll align and sometimes they don't. That's mostly where things stand right now. But, I mean, Tucker Carlson made a good point. One of the danger, Tucker Carlson made a good point, I think in his prelude to his interview with Trita, where he's like, look, here's the thing about Trump. Trump betrayed basically all of his own voters except for these neocons. And so you almost can't blame them for being mad when he also does the same thing that he did for everybody else. At the same time, you know, if we're being honest, everything they're saying about the deal is correct in the sense that, yes, it was an American humiliation, but it was American humiliation because of you. And the humiliation is still somehow preferable to 150,000 ground troops who have to seize the Strait of Hormuz.

But again, I do think all of this stuff, palace intrigue, is really interesting in the sense that they were the last fierce defenders of the Trump administration. And as we're all about to show you with the polling, they could not. Maybe this is the final good thing about this. At least we can see that the vast majority of the people who support this war, support this war, who are the loudest defenders of Trump, are so deeply out of touch with the American people that it is laughable when you actually look at the polls. Nothing could be said, nothing further from the truth could be said that Americans are like crying about that.

The only people crying are the neocons here in Washington and all over television. I literally long for somebody to be able to go on Fox or see. CNN or any these plays. Just tell the truth for once about the deal. Not just treat it on a weekend show. I'm talking about actual prime time for one of the. Not that anybody's going to watch it, but the people who do watch it are the members of Congress and all these others. Like some honesty needs to be injected into the system. That's why when JD Vance just says the basic stuff about Israel, be like, yeah, they're just like any other nation. They're like, oh my God. They have a total meltdown. Yeah. Well, I mean, and here's the thing too. Trump five seconds ago was aggressively trashing

Megyn Kelly and Tyler Tucker Carlson for being on, you know, against the war now that he wants a deal, you know, the people who are on the other side are now suddenly the villain. So, I mean, there's no, there's no through line here, right? It's all just about where is he today? And do you support that or are you critical of that? The only way that you can stay in his good graces is if you support the original stupid position and the new better position, like you can't have any principles or consistency because at some point you're going to end up on the wrong side of him because he has no principles and consistency, as evidenced by the fact, that we, you know, literally play it free in the earlier block, how he is threatening to murder

the Iranian negotiators in Switzerland before they even return home. So that is the nature of what you sign up for when you decide to defend this man and try to be, you know, in the inside of the court and be one of the favored commentators at some point. If you stick to any consistency at all, you will end up being completely humiliated by this man because that's just what he does. That's right. All right. Let's get to polling. Cash flow crunch. OnDex's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat.

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I know, terrible opener for a podcast ad. But here's the thing. I'm Holly Fry, and our skin exists precisely because of stats like that. Because more people than ever are living with conditions like psoriasis and hydrodinitis superiative. And most of them are doing it alone, without answers, without community, without anyone to tell them what the heck is actually going on. You know, not that many people knew about it and I felt kind of alone. Like, am I an outcast? That's where we come in.

We talk doctors. We talk appointments that are, well, a disappointment. We talk about the flare-ups and the breakthroughs. Then we dive deep into the wild, occasionally gross, always fascinating history of how. how humans have tried to understand our skin over the centuries. Spoiler alert, we did not always get it right. Listen to Season 3 of Our Skin, a personal discovery podcast on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Or go with our classic collagen peptides. So you can stay vital, stay you. Visit vital proteins.com to learn more and where to buy. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose treat cure or prevent any disease. Turning now to polling, as we just mentioned, about how wildly out of touch the neocons are. CBS News just ran a new poll.

And even for them, remember, this like, Zionist media outlet, at least tried to do a bit of a survey and found 78% of Americans want the Iran War to, and now, as in right now, here they are confronting Mike Waltz, the U.N. ambassador to the United Nations about this. Let's take a listen. The war is unpopular, as you just heard, but how it ends matters, as you know. CBS's Olivia Gazi is reporting that senior members of Trump's national security team, including Marco Rubio, remained doubtful Iran will comply

with this deal's terms. The CIA director presented Trump with intelligence, indicating inconsistencies with Iran's commitments. So if even the president's own team doubts this is a win, how do you sell this to the public?

Well, Margaret, I'll go back to other polling that shows that the American people absolutely agree with, President Trump that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Of course, we all want lower gas prices. They are lower below $4 and falling with more work to do. They're cheaper than under the Biden administration. We'll remember just a few months ago when analysts were saying oil would be upwards of $150 to $200 a barrel. And it is not. It's now under 80. Of course, everyone wants cheaper energy. But what President Trump is doing is striking that balance.

with also ensuring that a genocidal regime that none of us trust can never have a nuclear weapon. And that process is underway right now as we speak. Well, the American people also don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. We see that in our polling. But they're unconvinced that this interim agreement achieves that. So you can see then, you know, even in terms of the, this is the problem that they set their goals so maximalist whenever it came to what they wanted to accomplish. And then the deal itself, this is why I was saying earlier. You almost can't blame the neocons.

Like, you said unconditional surrender. You said you were going to do all this. And then now we're like, okay, well, just maybe don't charge a toll just for 60 days. Maybe in the future you can. And then let in the IAE inspectors who were already there and who were on the table for being admitted back in June. And all the just, let's just go right back to when you bomb you in the first place over a year ago. We could have just, we could just do that. Maybe, please, pretty please, you know, just for the price of oil.

So that's the problem, you know, that they face. But this polling is just so stark for them. Let's put it up here on the screen. We have some of the slides. The conflict with Iran, what should the U.S. do now? End it now. Only 22 percent, continue the conflict until Iran gives up more. Let's go to the next one.

What do we see here? Was the conflict with Iran worth the cost? 31% worth the cost. 69%. No, not worth the cost. Let's go to the next one, shall we? Did the conflict with Iran, quote, solve more problems and it created 21%. I don't really know how so few people came along.

just with that one, but then create more problems and solve 57%. And then neither was 21. Let's go to the next one. This is the most important one to me. Among Republicans, what should the U.S. do now? All Republicans, 60%. Even self-identified MAGA Republicans is 56. Continue the conflict until Iran gives up more, 40% and 44% with all Republicans versus

Maga-Republicans, respectively. So Péter Magyar Republicans, probably the most propagandized group to even potentially, say, that we should continue this conflict, mainlining Fox News into the bloodstream for the last 100 days. Even they are like, yeah, I just need this thing to end. I need it to end now. And that's even with Trump, I mean, you know, he's selling the deal, but not really. Like, is he really selling the deal as he was the war? Not even close. You just have JD out there. You have no real media support for it. And yet the 56% of the MAGA Republicans are there. So for the botias and for, you know, for all the neocom.

and the free presses and all of them of the world who self-identified speak on behalf of MAGA, nothing can be further from the truth, at least in this one particular case. Even all your bullshit, they're not buying it. And the Israelis actually see it even more clearly. The loss, there was a new poll there that found 92% of all Israelis believe

that the Islamic Republic of Iran won the war. Among supporters of Benjamin Netanyahu, it was 93% that believe Iran won the war. So, you know, they're looking at this. They're like, this was a disaster. I mean, I would love to have a chart of the emotional highs and lows. Oh, I know. Of the neocons and the Zionists over this period because, man, remember the beginning of the war and they were going on TV. They were so happy. Trump's threatening to murder their entire civilization. They're so delighted. He's calling for their Iranian people to rise up. There's all these rumors about we're going to

arm the Kurds and send them in and start a civil war. They were so happy about all. of that, delighted. And now that we actually have a possibility at ending this utter disaster, devastation, humiliation, et cetera, now you could not see a sadder group of people if you tried. All they want is to go back to the war, the promises of unconditional surrender, the delusions of regime change. They want to go immediately back to that fantasy land. Exactly. Let's put this last one here, C3 up here, just because this is where that Maga Republican line where we should end it now. This also comes, though, on the other side of, can you come back from the war? And I support, and in the war, I'll support and I'll attack all the people who want to

continue it. But if we're all being honest, for a lot of the people who were burned by this, and especially economically, can you come back? And as Washington Post writes here, for cash-strap farmers, the deal to end Iran fighting comes too late. Some of the president's strongest supporters hurting as the midterm elections approach. And they interview, many of them, costs of outrun sales all of this year, mostly because of Iran, especially with the fuel and the fertilizer bills that continue to rise. Diesel, quote, has not been cheaper since mid-March. Urea fertilizer in recent days sold for less than it did before the fighting began. However, the financial damage has been done.

And they specifically point to the Iran War as the number one reason why they saw those costs skyrocket in the interim from Eurea, which we covered some of those charts, fertilizer, or many of the other things from the early days in the war. But over and over again, they point to soybean, cotton, sweet potato, tobacco, corn, sunflowers, which is many of the places where Tyson farms there, one of the people that they interviewed here, and he says he runs the operation from, you know, his own property, and he just goes into detail about the damage that they have taken.

And this was already after the tariffs that had hit in June. So you have two successive, what I would say were real crises for the, the American farmer in their market with no requisite relief or anything from Congress. And I mean, look, I mean, are they going to vote Democrat? Probably not. But they're definitely just not going to vote whenever it comes midterm election time. And even in 2028, is it going to be that easy, you know, to go on board what Trump, Donald Trump says is going to be a good thing to be? Maybe. I could be wrong. But I think this is going to burn people. I really do. Yeah, I feel bad for these guys. They're not only so you've got the tariffs or disaster, the Iran war, an utter

disaster. COVID and Ukraine had also been a disaster. And then on top of that, they've been experiencing many of them a horrific drought, which is also caused problems. So you've really got like a perfect storm of both Mother Nature, partly caused by the climate crisis, and then Trump's disastrous decisions where they're just taking losses year after year after a year. One of the guys they interviewed was like, I long ago told my kids, don't do this. Go do something else in the world. So yeah, I mean, it gets to the point of, let's say it all goes smoothly over the 60 days. Seems unlikely, but let's say it all goes according to plan at the end of 60 days. We announce some deal. Rons getting their sanctions relief. We're, you know, the strata hormones is

open. Oil is flowing. Like things in the economy go relatively back to normal. There's been a lot of damage that's been done over this time period. And as we've learned before, it takes a while before things go back to normal. And if you're, you're just going to normal. And if you're someone who's living, you know, hand to mouth, which is close to a majority of Americans, you know, you're being set back in this period in a way this can be very difficult to recover and that you're not going to forget. So I think the, you know, both the economic and political fallout of this is incredibly, incredibly damaging. National price of gas today, 392 a gallon. Glad to see it, you know, under $4 a gallon. Diesel still look about $5 a gallon. And as you said,

you know, the other wild card to all of this is China, which, remember, the only reason that we didn't hit a genuine crisis in the oil market was because of Chinese imports. But those same analysts that we were looking at who talked about that 50-some percent cut in overall imports from China is saying, look, at a certain point, they are going to have to start importing. At some point, again, they can't just continue to sit there and eat up all of their own reserves. So when they restart at least some of their imports, price pressure will stay there. They're waiting for the price to come down to be able to continue, but they will have to do it, you know, sometime in the next month or two. And so no, no nation in the world,

especially one of some 1.4 billion people, can just sit around and not have any oil import, or very little oil import for months on end. So when it restarts, that could keep the price, you know, continuing high, especially with all the slack currently cut out of the system, not even to mention the strategic petroleum reserve. If we have another crisis after this one, we're dead. Yeah. And there's no guarantees in the negotiation process. Let's say we get 60 days down the road, thing falls apart. We've got 60 more days of oil traffic having been, you know, interrupted and not back to ordinary times. And the SPR has been dramatically, you know, drawn down. So you're in a much more precarious position starting out at that point. Well, we, you know,

we always make this fallacy. We're pointing to the current conflict. But the lesson of history is that you don't know. I mean, right now, I mean, we're going to cover this tomorrow with John Mearsheimer. What Russia, what's happening in Russia and Ukraine is out of control. It's absolutely out of control. They are blowing the shit out of all of these Russian oil refineries. Russia's oil production is actually dropping. They're hitting all these. Look, I get it. Ukraine is a right to self-defense, but this is still a nuclear arm nation and all of that.

And so will they take drastic measure? That sounds like a recipe for disaster in the oil market, right? Or you never know, India, Pakistan. I mean, North Korea, like the Straits of Malacca, Taiwan, anything can happen all over. That's why you have a strategic reserve. But at the lowest level here from 1983, we are, that's why. Why the precarity, it's like the munitions. We knew it would be a problem.

You didn't know we were going to bomb Iran, but you could foresee it a mile away. And, oh, that's exactly what happened. Now that we've come out of this war, we have a very, very low stockpile. So you can see it. The script is written here for a petroleum reserve. We used it in the current crisis. We don't have, you know, nobody's going to want to refill it because it'll cost hundreds of billions or whatever.

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