The Trump-Xi Summit in China: Trade, Taiwan, AI and More

I see health care as probably the greatest opportunity for AI systems to be useful in lifting humanity up. That's Greg Carrotto, Ph.D., distinguished scientist and senior research director at Google. At the break, join him and his colleagues to learn about Project Ame, an innovative collaboration between Google and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center designed to improve the natural flow of information from patient to physician. Can we build an intelligence system that supports conversational interactions? From the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch. President Trump arrives in Beijing for a two-day summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and with a long list of items on the negotiating table, from imports and exports to geopolitics to leading-edge artificial intelligence. But what's particularly worth keeping an eye on as this diplomatic meeting begins? Welcome, I'm Kyle Peterson with the Wall Street Journal. We're joined today by my colleagues on the WSJ's opinion pages, Kate O'Dell, a member of the editorial board, and Matt Contonetti, a columnist for the journal's new free expression and newsletter. President Trump landed in Beijing on Wednesday, descending from Air Force One at about 8 p.m. local time. He was greeted there by China's vice president, as well as a military honor guard, and Trump accompanied by quite an entourage, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and a delegation of business leaders, including Elon Musk, Tim Cook of Apple, and Jensen Huang of Envidia. Let's listen to a clip of President Trump explaining his focus for this meeting before leaving the White House on Tuesday. I think more than anything else says we have massive relationships with China with the two superpowers. We're the strongest nation on earth in terms of military. China's considered second. Who knows? I mean, who knows? But we are. There's nobody even to come close. And you see that whether it's Venezuela or whether it's Iran's military is decimated. I have a great relationship with President Xi Jinping, and I think it's going to remain that way. We have a lot of things to discuss. I wouldn't say Iran is one of them, to be honest with you, because we have Iran very much under control. We're either going to make a deal or they're going to be decimated. So one way or the other, we win. What about we're going to be talking about, we're going to be talking with President Xi Jinping about a lot of different things. I would say more than anything else will be trade. The formal meetings were expected to begin on Thursday morning in Beijing, which will be late Wednesday night, U.S. time. Kate, let me go to you first. How would you set the table for this important meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping? Well, it's the first in several years. And I think there are three broad categories of topics under discussion. The first one being trade. Second one being technology, particularly artificial intelligence. A third, potentially being Taiwan, an arm sales to Taiwan. And then a number of things looming in the background here, particularly the Iran War. I think at a very high level, we'll get into some of those specific topics, but at a very high level.

I expect very little from this summit. And I think most of what could be announced would be bad. And so I think the best case scenario here is a discussion between the two leaders, a agreement to kind of ratify the status quo, particularly on trade, keep the tariff guns down. Not China agree, okay, we will continue not holding the world's. rare earth supply chain hostage. But I don't expect much more than that. And I think the meeting has more risks than potential upsides. President's going to ask potentially on the trade front for purchases of American soybeans or aircraft. But in the grand scheme of things, I don't expect those to have either a really substantive economic impact or a substantive political impact. And so the theme of the summit to my eye is really... whether Trump understands Xi Jinping's anti-American purposes and how hard he is working in so many domains to undermine the United States. And whether Trump can avoid some of these traps that Xi Jinping is setting for him, particularly most at the core on Taiwan and its status as a free self-governing island. Before we dig into some of those specific agenda items, Matt, let me get your overall read of this. Again, just an important summit, an important meeting to the world's biggest nations, most powerful nations, with many points of disagreement. Right. And the U.S.-China rivalry will define the 21st century. So this is the first time Trump has been to China since his first term. This will be the first of four meetings that the two heads of state will conduct over the course of this year alone. And it occurs at a kind of fragile moment in U.S.-China relations after the tumultuous 2025, which experienced a trade war, where at one point early in 2025, U.S. Chinese economies were essentially embargoing each other. We had absurdly high tariff rates on both countries that brought trade to a standstill. And then in the fall of 2025, we had another showdown between the United States and China over tariffs and rare earth minerals that come from China. And the status quo that emerged from that conflict in the fall, I think, benefits both parties. America has leverage over China. The tariffs have largely worked to cut the share of trade that comes into the United States from China and now flows through other countries, mainly Southeast Asia and Mexico. But there's no question that the Chinese economy is in a precarious state. At the same time, of course, China has things that we need, including the processed rare earth minerals that are essential to high tech and essential to our defense capabilities. At the same time, the military balance of power, I think in the Indo-Pacific, continues to favor the United States, despite this major.

Chinese defense buildup that's been going on for years. And so what Xi Jinping wants is for America to essentially side with him on the Taiwan issue. He wants Donald Trump to publicly oppose Taiwanese independence, which would be a shift from America's 50-year precedent of saying that the status of Taiwan is ambiguous. right, and that we oppose any unilateral action to bring about the unification of China, both mainland China and Taiwan. So I think the administration is right to lower expectations, Kyle. I think this is a status quo summit. And I think Kate is right to say that if we have any big headlines, more likely and not, they would be bad ones. Hang tight. We'll be right back in a moment. Earlier, Google's senior research director Greg Corrado spoke about Project Ami, an AI-driven voice technology. The idea is to find a setting where AI is genuinely helping a clinician in a conversational interaction that involves patients. And the first area that we wanted to explore is patient intake when you're first getting information about the medical situation in front of you. The research is critical, Carrado says, because more comprehensive intake frees physicians to spend more time with patients. It's not meant to be flashy. It's meant to be... foundational. I'm Matthew Hennessy, the editor of Free Expression, the new daily newsletter from the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal. Free expression is a little different than what you get in the print paper's opinion section. We've expanded things out a little bit. We have a great mix of columnists, including Matt Continetti, Louise Perry, and Kyle Smith. You also get frequent sharp contributions from my editorial colleagues. And we publish outside contributors, too, from rock star economists like Tom Sol to real rock stars like John Androsic and David Drayman. You can sign up for free expression by going to the journal's homepage and looking for the free expression tab. We're also on substack. Twitter, Instagram, threads, and TikTok, if that's your sort of thing. Sign up for free expression today, and we'll see you in your inbox tomorrow. Welcome back. Kate, what's your read of the dynamic on Taiwan? This is a point that the journal's editorial on the summit under the headline, the stakes of the Trump Xi Jinping summit also takes up. It says that President Xi Jinping is expected to press the U.S. to formally oppose Taiwanese independence as opposed to the current posture of not supporting Taiwanese independence. And what is the difference, what is the distinction between those two since that is a bit of diplomatic speak? A lot of Americans look at the U.S. relationship with Taiwan and see it shrouded in a lot of diplomatic mystery and that we've maintained some careful wording around it to maintain relationships with Beijing while also maintaining our interest in Taiwan. That dates back 50 years when we passed Taiwan Relations Act.

Basically, what she wants is for the United States to repeat some of his chivalets about Taiwan. And one of them being, okay, Taiwan is a rogue province. It broke away from China. And so we have a right to get it back. The U.S. has never endorsed that view. I thought Matt laid out very well that we oppose changes to the status quo that are done by other than peaceful means. And that... the language in the American law says, you know, that includes boycotts and embargoes and other types of coercive action toward Taiwan that aren't just a military invasion. And so what she is looking for is for Trump to validate his worldview about Taiwan. And I don't think my base case is that this does not happen from this summit. And there are a couple reasons for that. One, just practically being. this would be not a wise time to disrupt 50 years of U.S. policy toward Taiwan. Matt is right that the balance of military power in the Pacific still favors the United States, but I would argue it's going the wrong direction and has for several years now. It's tilting too far than the other direction. And as you get closer to mainland China in the Pacific, the military balance of power for the United States. gets worse. I think Trump wants to be able to say, no crisis in Taiwan on my watch. Now, when we talk about Taiwan, we talk about, you know, U.S. has a huge economic interest in it because it's a hub for global semiconductor production. It's important for its physical geography and what we call the first island chain. But also, it's a free people. It's a democratic island. It shows that a Chinese prosperous democracy is possible. And so those are the real reasons to support Taiwan. But I think even on a practical level, The president here doesn't have an appetite for giving Xi Jinping a big concession that might give him reason to believe that he could move on Taiwan in the next few years and that Trump wouldn't defend it. I don't think Trump wants to invite that crisis on his watch. What about trade and those really eye-watering tariffs last year that you mentioned, Matt? I think they were up to 145% at one point, which, as you say, is basically a do not send any imports here sign. I tend to agree that no news would be good news because we have gotten to a bit of a trade detente. And part of what is difficult to figure out from my perspective sometimes is what the Trump administration's real motives with these trade wars has been. Because I think that the read of the first term Trump trade actions is exactly what you said. It resulted in some supply chains shifting. More U.S. products coming from neighboring countries, countries in the region, Vietnam, for example. Many of the Trump administration seem to view that not as a success, that we are less reliant on China as a... a manufacturing hub, but they view that as a failure because they want those jobs brought back to the United States, back to Ohio. They're imagining the Apple assembly plants, making AirPods and so forth in the Rust Belt states. And so it's difficult to figure out exactly what their motivation is, because if it's just to set the trading terms and set them on U.S. grounds, that was the argument for the old...

Trans-Pacific Partnership. TPP trade deal where you would get together with other friendly countries in the region and say, this is how we're going to do business. And it's our terms. It's not China terms. But Trump doesn't like that. And he seems to like these one-on-one personal diplomacy deals where he gets some kind of promises where China's going to buy a whole bunch of soybeans or something like that. And sometimes those promises don't pan out. I think that was the record of the first Trump term. Although, you know, as we get here. closer to the midterms, President Trump eyeing some of these races, House races, Senate races, and some of these farm belt states, maybe that will be, again, attractive to him if President Xi Jinping puts it on the table. Yeah, the way it's being described in Washington is that Trump is looking for some trade wins on beef, beans, and Boeing. So there's the hope that out of the summit will get some Chinese promises to buy more meat products from the United States, from our ranchers, to buy more soybeans from our farmers, and then to buy some more jets. from Boeing and aircraft manufacturers. That would be a minor win for President Trump, of course, because there's always the caveat with Chinese promises that they rarely deliver. That was the administration's experience with the phase one trade deal back at the end of the first term. I see us in a strategic competition with China, Kyle, and so we have to look at how America's performing across various domains. With trade, it's a question of, in my view. reciprocity. That is, China enjoyed almost unlimited access to our markets for decades, and yet we rarely have access to Chinese markets, which are very closed. And, of course, the consumer market in China is not what most people think it is. It's extremely small, right? Consumer spending counts for a huge part of our GDP and a relatively small part of Chinese GDP. The real question to be on the different fields is AI. Here's artificial intelligence, which is the one field of competition where America is ahead. And some experts say our elite is actually increasing over time because of various export controls that have been put in place on our highest, most advanced chips going to China. And so I think it's very important to watch this summit for any actions that might actually erode America's advantage. in the AI domain, because I think AI, as we've seen from the recent GDP report, has given America a tremendous boost economically and is, in fact, compensating in some ways for the damage done by the Trump tariffs. I think we should also look at other places where we have some leverage, and one of them is our fossil fuel advantage. And, of course, that advantage has grown with the operation in Venezuela, Operation Absolute Resolve, kind of flipping Venezuela from pro-China orientation to a pro-American orientation. And even though it's, as always complicated, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is drastically increasing fuel prices in China, even to a greater extent than, of course, the pain that we see at the pump here in the United States. And so I would expect President Trump to go in and say, look, China should help America get some resolution to the Strait of Hormuz that would be beneficial to both countries since most of the oil is flowing there to China. And yet at the same time, I'd be looking at any...

last minute. I do think that speaks to a theme of this summit being that Trump really thinks his personal rapport with Xi Jinping can smooth over a lot of very large differences in worldview and interests. And I think, you know, inviting Jensen Huang to come along on the trip or getting him on Air Force One at Anchorage at the last minute is a testament to kind of how Trump is the decider. And he is surrounded by people who are more skeptical of China. But Trump himself is using that language like we're going to open up China or we're going to bring them in better before. He is really the chief dove of the administration and thus. We can't know for sure what he does over the next day when he gets into the room. Hang tight. We'll be right back after one more break. Earlier, Google's Greg Carrotto explained how the tech company is using language-based AI and Project Ami to help deepen communication between doctors and patients. Carrado's colleague, Dr. Michael Howell, Google's chief health officer, explains why this research system is designed to focus not just on accuracy, but empathy. I think that is one of the big promises of how technology can support the relationship between patients and... clinicians in ways that lead to more engaged patients who understand more about their health, which is what every physician wants. Don't forget, you can reach the latest episode of Potomac Watch anytime. Just ask your smart speaker, play the Opinion Potomac Watch podcast. From the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch. Welcome back. We've covered a lot of ground already, but let's save a few words, Matt. And I hope President Trump saved some words for Jimmy Lai, the former publisher in Hong Kong. sentenced to 20 years in prison after a 26-month trial recently and kept in some reports, say, pretty severe conditions, especially for an almost 80-year-old with diabetes, very limited contact with family, denied regular access to Catholic communion, according to many reports. Matt, it seems that the leverage of the United States might be one thing that could get this political prisoner out of China's jails. Yes, I mean, I think it's very important that President Trump bring up the case of Jimmy Lai, as well some of the other cases of political prisoners held in China, including Pastor Ezra Jin, who's one of the leading Christians in China and who's been under arrest now for several months imprisoned. Jimmy Lai, of course, much more famous figure because of his status as a media mogul and a supporter of the free press in Hong Kong before mainland China, the People's Republic, absorbed Hong Kong and transformed it a few years ago. President Trump is aware of the case. He said multiple times he intends to bring it up with Xi Jinping, but I hope that it just doesn't end with, hey, what about Jimmy Lai? You know, could you do me a favor and release him?

I think the experience of the Reagan administration shows that in order to use American support for dissidents as a lever against these totalitarian regimes, you have to bring up the cases consistently, and you also have to speak on behalf of the ideals for which these imprisoned prisoners stand. And so I would hope that there be a concerted effort. not just in one conversation, but across the two days that President Trump will see Xi Jinping to obtain Jimmy Lai's release. It's undercover, Kyle, but in this competition with China, we've been talking about freedom is America's competitive edge. Why is America leading? in the AI domain. It's because of our free society, because of the innovation and adaptability that you can only find in the United States and that our encouraging attitude toward entrepreneurialism and innovation. And that same idea of freedom also connects to our ideals of free speech and freedom of religion, neither of which is respected within the People's Republic of China. So I hope President Trump understands that and I hope he communicates that to Xi Jinping over the course of the summit. in Beijing. Okay, we'll give you the last word for our summit today, but anything else that you would add on the negotiating table in Beijing? I'd say just two things briefly. The first one would be on nuclear weapons, which in the background of everything else going on in the world right now. We're living through an age of nuclear proliferation, and that's because of the Chinese Communist Party is on really a rapid sprint to build out their nuclear arsenal. And they keep going faster than we expected. It's beyond what they would need for a minimum nuclear deterrent. And they're building discerning capabilities for different types of nukes to maybe back us into a corner on Taiwan. The Trump administration has actually done some important things on that front, particularly declassifying some intelligence that they detected a Chinese nuclear test in 2020. So one question I have is if Trump is going to bring this up because China has refused to discuss arms control at all and to basically want to be at parity to the United States. Trump himself has a unique hatred of nuclear weapons in the world that he talks about frequently. And if he were to... try to get them to discuss their nuclear weapons program, that that could be an achievement that he is uniquely positioned to bring some good on if he could drive that conversation. And then lastly, the last thing where I think he has a... an opening is to be direct about the Chinese Communist Party's relationship with, particularly Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Mark Montgomery, the retired Navy admiral, suggested last week, you know, why doesn't Trump just ask Xi Jinping directly, are you giving Iran intelligence support? Are you faring in fuel precursors to Iran? Because the truth is that behind this entire summit, China is...

the financier and the industrial base for the world's bad actors. I don't think it's an overstatement to say that the war in Ukraine as well continues because China feeds in the legacy chips and commercial equipment that allows the Russian industrial base to exist. And so that's my parting word and it really goes back to the theme that we're talking about, which is does Trump see China the way he did in his first term as a strategic competition, an adversary that is competing with us on militarily and economics? Or is he leading the country into it? a new, potentially more dangerous chapter of kind of managed detaunt without seeing that competition for what it is. Thank you, Kate and Matt. Thank you all for listening. You can send your own diplomatic cables to PW Podcast at WSJ.com. If you like the show, please hit that subscribe button. And we'll be back tomorrow with another edition of Potomac Watch. The effective application of AI in healthcare requires trust. That starts with transparency, including peer review, expanding use only when evidence allows. Here's Google's Dr. Michael Howell. We think it is very important to show our work. This collaboration is a great example of what we feel is doing it in the right way. And as Howell's Google colleague, Greg Carrotto notes, Project Ami reflects a vision of how AI should be used in this space. Technology, when used appropriately, is something that expands our capabilities. And I think that in health and in medicine, we're going to see that this is an environment. where we can really agree that AI can add value if it's done well. For more, search for Google's new series, a new era of American innovation, wherever you get your podcasts. This content was created by custom content from WSJ, a unit of the Wall Street Journal Advertising Department.