US & Iran Weigh Truce Extension; Stocks Extend Record Highs

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all backed by your actual business context as defined by your data team. Start saying yes to more data questions at hex.a.I. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, momentum is building in the market for a possible longer ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. A source tells Bloomberg News, both sides are considering a two-week extension to allow for more talks around contentious issues like reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says the U.S. has not asked for a formal extension yet.

We've remained very much engaged in these negotiations in these talks. You heard from the vice president directly and the president this week that these conversations, are productive and ongoing, and that's where we are right now. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt at the White House. We get more from Bloomberg's Jamana Bersetschi in Dubai. No date has been set. There's no official confirmation yet that these talks are happening. Actually, the White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said yesterday

that the U.S. had not put in a formal proposal to extend the ceasefire by two weeks. But she did say if another round of talks are going to be held, they would likely be held in Islamabad in Pakistan. And Pakistan, for their part, I will say, are working the diplomatic channels aggressively. The Army chief site Asimoneers in Tehran for ceasefire talks, meeting with some of the chief negotiators on the Iranian side. The Iranian state media reporting that the U.S. have relayed a message via the Pakistani mediators to the Iranian side. So we'll see what their response is going to be. In the meantime, Bloomberg's Jumana Bersetschi reports the U.S.

naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues. Iran's state television reports the Iranian military sees prolonging the blockade as a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire. Well, Nathan, former Secretary of State John Kerry played a key role in the nuclear deal with Iran that President Trump rejected in his first term. He tells Bloomberg's Francine-Lakwa the war could have been avoided if the president had stuck with the deal. What's happened is a war that had been certainly postponed and probably avoided, most likely, It was made inevitable almost when the president pulled out and we are where we are.

But now Secretary Kerry says the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could be a smart decision to pressure Iran, but only if the U.S. is willing to compromise. McCarrin talks are scheduled to continue now between Israel and Lebanon. And Israeli official says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Ayun will speak today following ambassador-level talks in the U.S. earlier this week. Those were the first direct discussions between the Middle Eastern countries in more than three decades. Well, Nathan, a series of suspiciously well-timed trades in the oil futures market during the war has caught the attention of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Bloomberg's Amy Morris has more from Washington. Investigators are looking into instances over a period of about two weeks where trading volumes surged just before major announcements and policy pivots by President Trump. That raised alarm bells about the potential misuse of non-public information tied to Trump's shifting stance on the war in Iran.

The CFTC wants to see the data from the exchanges, including who was behind the trades. That investigation is now focused on trading of oil futures contracts on platforms belonging to CME Group and intercontinental exchange. In Washington, Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio. Amy, thanks. Back on Wall Street, the global, stock market rally continues this morning. Stocks in Japan closed at an all-time high. The MSCI All-Ccountry Index, which had dropped as much as 9% since the start of the war, has erased those declines. And the S&P 500 closed above the 7,000 level for the first time,

while the NASDAQ 100 also ended the yesterday's session at an all-time high. Wall Street veteran Ed Yardinney says investors are looking past the war and focusing now on fundamentals. When you look at the history of geopolitical crises, especially as they affected the S&P 500, history shows that geopolitical crisis turned out to be great buying opportunities. So just when everything looks the most dire and grim, that's when investors come in and conclude that the war will eventually end and peace will follow. Ed Yardini with Yardini Research notes the S&P 500 reached its bottom on March 30th.

Well, Nathan, despite the market optimism, voices at this week's World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington are more cautious. IMF managing director Kristolina Georgieva says investors may be underestimating the economic damage from the war. Why are markets so optimistic? I think part of the reason is because there is a high concentration of financial assets in the United States. The U.S. economy is doing well. It is relatively not so impacted because the U.S. is a very important. an oil exporter, not importer, and that creates that picture of dynamism and vibrancy,

but I can tell you that's not the story of the rest of the world. In the rest of the world, already there is a lot of pain. IMF managing director, Kristallina Georgieva, made the comments in an interview with Bloomberg's Francine Lakwa. Catch our full conversation with Georgieva and former Secretary of State John Kerry and our new video experience on the Bloomberg business app. All right, let's check some stocks in the news this morning now, Karen. Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing is raising its revenue outlook for the year. The upbeat forecast underscores the resilience of AI chip demand, despite concerns about the economic fallout from the war.

TSM is the main chipmaker for Nvidia and Apple. It expects revenue to grow more than 30%. This afternoon, Nathan, we get earnings from a streaming giant Netflix, and Bloomberg's Tom Busby has a preview. Well, this is the first earnings report from Netflix since it walked away from an ugly battle to acquire most of Warner Brothers Discovery. Analysts expect the company to report a 15% increase in revenue thanks to live sporting and concert events and from advertising.

Raising its subscription fee in March to $20 for the standard plan without ads also helped. Bloomberg Consensus calls for revenue of $12.17 billion on earnings per share of 76 cents. Tom Busby, Bloomberg Radio. Okay, Tom, thanks. And a federal jury in New York has found Live Nation entertainment illegally, monopolize the live events industry and overcharged fans. The verdict marks a major win for a coalition of 33 states and Washington, D.C., that pursued this case, despite the Justice Department's recent settlement that allowed Live Nation to keep its ticket master unit. Jennifer Ree is a senior

antitrust litigation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. I think this ruling is significant because, honestly, it's been over the years very, very difficult for plaintiffs to win monopolization suits against big companies, and in particular, a suit like this one where the federal government is no longer in the case because they settled, and it's a group of states only going out on their own. And it just shows that plaintiffs can win these monopolization suits where they have compelling evidence, even where it's really hard fought by the defense. Bloomberg intelligence analyst Jen Rees says the states are now seeking as much as $700 million in damages and possibly additional penalties. Live Nation says it will appeal.

Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning. Good morning, Karen. Today, New Jersey voters will pick Governor Mikie Sherrill's replacement in Congress. Cheryl had to give up her 11th district seat after being elected governor. Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway is the Republican nominee. One of my big platforms is to freeze taxes for first-time homebuyers. Home ownership in New Jersey is more challenging than ever.

Progressive Annalia Mejia is the Democratic nominee. We lost the health care tax credits because of the Republican Party, and now health care costs are up 175% in one year. We lost energy tax credits, and that's why energy prices are up. Audio courtesy of ABC 7. New York City doorman and other staff voted to authorize a strike, which would disrupt operations at co-ops, condos, and apartment buildings as soon as April 21st. The workers are pushing back against possible reductions in health care coverage, advocating for pay hikes and demanding that building owners strengthen the pension fund. The fallout continues after Vice President JD Vance made comments about Pope Leo's criticism of the war in Iran.

The vice president said Pope Leo should be careful when he talks about matters of theology. Yesterday, House Speaker Mike Johnson weighed in on the comments. It is a very well-settled matter of Christian theology. There's something called the Just War Doctrine. There's a time to every purpose under heaven. The Pope criticized President Trump's rhetoric about destroying a civilization. New Yorkers have been soaking up some sun. As some parts of the country deal with damaging severe storms,

the East Coast is enjoying 85 to 90 degree days. This woman was out in Washington Square Park. It's pretty hot. The UV is eight, so trying to tan. We got some ice cream. Today, once again, it will be mostly sunny. and hot. Global news, 24 hours a day, and whatever you want it. With Bloomberg News now, I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg, Karen.

Thanks, Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update, and for that we bring in John Stashauer. Thanks, Karen. Two more NBA play in-game. Philadelphia had to play without Joe L.M.B. due to his appendectomy, the Sixers still beat Orlando 109-97. That makes Philly the seven seed in the east. They'll play the Celtics in the first round. It means the Magic will play again on Friday at home against Charlotte, and the winner will be the eighth seed and play Detroit. Golden State led by Steph Curry, 126, 121 over the Clippers in L.A. That moves the Warriors to a game tomorrow in Phoenix

to see who'll be the eighth seed in the West. The season over for the Clippers. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this.

Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on SiriusXM, and around the world on Bloomberg. and the Bloomberg business out. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. There's some optimism now that the break in fighting between the U.S. and Iran could last a little longer. Bloomberg News has learned both countries are considering a ceasefire extension. The White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says the U.S. hasn't asked for one yet. I saw some reporting. Again, bad reporting this morning that we had formally requested an extension

of the ceasefire. That is not true at this moment. That was Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt at the White House yesterday. Joining us this morning from Dubai is Bloomberg Middle East correspondent, Jumana Bersetschi, the anchor of Bloomberg Horizons. So Jumana, just to pick up on what Karoline Leavitt was saying, what is true this morning? What do we know about the prospect for further talks? Good morning. Yeah, well, Karoline Leavitt there is saying that the U.S. had not formally requested a ceasefire extension, but she also went on to say that if there were going to be if there was going to be a second round of talks, it would likely happen in Islamabad. And we know that the diplomatic channels are being actively worked over the last 24 hours.

The chief of army of Pakistan made a visit to Tehran. Apparently, he is conveying messages from the U.S. And those messages have been relayed back and forth. So Pakistan also acting as sort of a message go between the U.S. and Iran here. At the same time, the Pakistani Prime Minister alongside a delegation, is making a trip through the region. Yesterday, he was in Saudi Arabia. today he's heading to Qatar and then he's going to Turkey.

And again, all of those three countries, increasingly more so Saudi Arabia as well, looking to play some form of a diplomatic mediation role should these talks go ahead. But I should say at this point, no time and no venue has been confirmed. Okay. Well, we've heard from President Trump saying that the next two days could be key toward getting potentially a big deal. I believe that was two days ago. What's the prospect of that at this point? Well, there is a clock that's ticking in the background,

and it's less to do with Trump's deadline and more to do with the ceasefire expiry, which I guess that goes back to President Trump. But technically it expires on the 22nd over here in the region, 21st in the U.S. And so we do have a couple of more days before a decision has to be made about whether that ceasefire expires or whether it continues.

Remember, yesterday we were reporting that at the same time as we're speaking about the big efforts on the diplomatic side of things, there has continued to be a build-up of military assets in the region as well. So perhaps from the US perspective, looking to continually apply pressure to the Iranian side to come back to the table. But at the same time, you've got all of those mediators. And even I would say, and I should have mentioned this before, even the UAE received the call from the Iranian Speaker of the Parliament yesterday. the first time that UAE has spoken to Iran since the inception of the war. So there is a feeling

from the region that there's momentum to de-escalates, what shape or format we just don't know yet. Okay. Well, in the meantime, of course, we have this trickle moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade of the blockade, as it were. How does that potentially complicate things? And are Iran's leaders and Iran's military on the same page when it comes to enforcement of the blockade? Yeah. So what we understand is there are a couple of sticking points still. when it comes to those negotiations. One of them, of course, still the fate of the straits, so to speak, the Central Commands are saying,

and they've reiterated this overnight, that they have full superiority over maritime shipping, that there have been around a dozen merchant vessels that have been forced to turn back and go back to Iranian ports. As you say, there's still a trickle of vessels coming in. They're being closely monitored, and it's quite difficult to monitor, because many of them just turned their signals off

as they're passing through the straight. But the point is we're very far away from where we were before the war even kicked off. And now half a dozen vessels going through the street today isn't going to move the needle on energy. I think the objective, as we spoke about yesterday, is really for the U.S. to apply increasingly economic pressure on Iran to cut off this key lifeline for their oil export

so that when they do come to the next round of negotiations, they potentially would be more open to give concessions. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning, starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 991 in Washington, Bloomberg 929 in Boston, and nationwide on Sirius XM Channel 121. Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg business app now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces. And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes or less.

Search Bloomberg News Now and your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

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