Concerns Over Long Term Yields and Oil Prices

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcasts. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your. podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. We're going to pause here with Stephen Anglinder and we can do this with standard charter bank and just look at the larger view. Paul, I'm going to go to 70,000 feet on this, on the dollar. The single number on my screen which screams flight to quality is a DXY of 99 yen back to a 159 handle. Just a remarkably resilient dollar. Stephen England there's been a student of this since time began.

Are you shocked at the resiliency of the dollar? We're not shocked because we've been dollar bulls in a market that's overwhelmingly dollar negative. But you're always a little bit surprised at the timing. What seems to have happened is a combination of U.S. interest rates finally going up, reflecting some positives in the sense of U.S. economic growth and earnings resilience. and, you know, as well as some negatives, which is the inflation picture, but the market is responding. Explain this right now. I got to get this academics in. What's great there, and I think of John Riden, iconic at Bear Stearns with Breen as well, is Paul, in every dynamic, there's an ambiguity,

this word ambiguous. So if a dollar goes up, everybody's like gloom, gloom, gloom, boom, boom. But on a second order condition, it's about economic might, isn't it? Yeah, because the causality is always important. And, you know, if the dollar's going up for some arbitrary reason, yeah, it's not competitive. But if every quarter you're always surprised at how resilient earnings are and how they surprise to the upside, and you're surprised at productivity growth and how strong it is, that tells you something about the return to capital. And that's why money keeps flowing into the U.S. that, you know, their risk-adjusted return to capital estimates seem to be, you know, keep going up,

and that attracts capital globally in a world that's slowing down. We have a new chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. What's he going to do? I mean, presumably he's got some pressure to cut rates, but the data doesn't really support that at all. You know, we just put out a piece today and addressing that question. And the title was, he won't cut, but hook cap. that, you know, and we say outright that if it was, say, a Yelen or a Bernanke, you know, we'd probably have rate hikes in our forecast, as it is, we're flat,

because the chair does have a certain amount of power, and unless things really fall apart on the inflation side, he can certainly delay hikes for a period of time. So how pronounced is your concern about inflation here? How do you think about that? You know, your kid has a 9.000. 99 and a half degree, you know, temperature. Yep.

And you think it's going up a little bit, but, you know, you don't see any sign that's going to 105. So you sort of say, yeah, I got to watch this, make sure that, you know, it stays kind of at these levels. And, you know, we're not a defcom one on inflation. It's higher than it we want it to be. And the best indications are that it's sort of going up very slowly. Plus, he is right that the productivity story. puts downward pressure on unit labor costs. So it's not like everything is falling apart.

There's sort of, there's concern, but not despair. Stephen Englader with us, the Standard Charter Bank, all of their heritage of the Pacific Rim and around India as well. It's off your remit, but I've got to go there, given your team at Standard Charter Bank. Is there a tradable currency opportunity, given the difficult energy template for the Pacific Rim and around to India?

Is there an opportunity? Well, some of it's already priced in. And, you know, that's part of the world that's been hit the worst, that the energy prices, most of that region doesn't have energy. China is a bit aside because of the huge stocks that it has on the energy side. But if you're looking at places like India, it's a real problem. And we've seen the currency adjust downward. Where's value out there in the currency markets today, do you think?

You know, I think there's always a problem in that I can say that I think the dollar is value and that, you know, it's going to go up and that, you know, our forecast for the euros 112 a year out. But there's a lot of in-betweens where you kind of say, is this the right timing to go long dollars, short euros, could something happen? And that's always the art of trading to get the timing right. Thank you so much for coming in today. Thank you.

Really, really appreciate it with the Standard Charter Bank, Stephen Englander with us as well. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions, buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash,

putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AIA. agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500. Or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined.

An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokred services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.

Hey, it's Amy Brown here from Feeling Things with Amy and Kat. Okay, quick break. This is for any parent or caregiver of a child that experiences allergic reactions from food, medicine, insects, or other allergy triggers. This time of year can feel like a lot. Summer activities, camps, travel, and getting ready for back to school. You're doing everything to make sure that your child is safe wherever you are. Educating coaches, teachers, other parents on your child's allergy. Scheduling doctor's appointments, filling out camp and school forms and the million other things that come with managing your child's allergies. But at some point, you have to trust that they'll be okay if an allergic reaction happens when you aren't there.

Which is why I want to tell you about Nethy. The only needle-free epinephrine nasal spray for those who weigh 33 pounds or more. It's used for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Neffi works as well as a needle injector and delivers the same trusted epinephrine. It's designed to be safe and easy to use at first sign of symptoms. So in a high-stress moment, your child or someone else can act quickly to treat an allergic reaction, even if you're not there. Neffi is also small, discreet, and easy to carry, including in a backpack, lunchbox, or sports bag.

So your child is prepared anywhere the day takes them. Pay as little as $0 for at least four Neffi devices. Two packs. Through the co-pay savings program with commercial insurance, if eligible. Patients should not pay more than $199 for Neffi. If you have medical conditions or take certain medicines, your condition may worsen. Tell your doctor about nasal, heart, thyroid, or kidney issues. High blood pressure, Parkinson's, diabetes, if you're pregnant or breastfeeding, and all medications.

Side effects include nasal discomfort, headache, runny nose, shakiness, and throat irritation. These are not all side effects. Does your child need a new epinephrine prescription or refill? Don't wait. Ask a doctor about needle-free neffy today. Visit neffy.com or call 877 my neffy. to learn more. That's n e-f-fy.com. Cashflow crunch. OnDek's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds

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You're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app or watch us live on YouTube. We now start a three-hour conversation with Paul Sanky. He's founder of Sanky research, absolutely definitive in his independence within the petroleum analysis of the world. So I see Ed Morris out doing all sorts of stuff. He's like holding courted, you know, 69 years old. Curry's out doing microeconomics out of Chicago, price theory and a price of oil. Away from the headlines in the zeitgeist that we're living

every day. What is your curiosity right now? What is the odd thing you're studying? Well, we got into group three base oils. Do you know about that? Please help me here. Is that like, no, it's very striking. I'm thinking last week, this is quite a big deal, actually. Last week, Walmart and Costco warned that they didn't have enough base oils to put on their shelves. You know, the stuff you put in your engine was running out. And the reason for that is basically we're heavily dependent on base oil from Hormuz. So it's a very interesting end of the chain story.

And this is not, you know, some deli down the road. This is Walmart, Costco, Toyota, Exxon, then warned they don't have enough motor oil. It's a physical shortage here in the U.S. right now. thought that was pretty fascinating. Are the physical shortages in the Pacific room as well? Francisco Todd Blanche was in saying by far and away, the Pacific Rim, Indo-Pacific, is affected. Yes, absolutely. But I think compared to where we were when this started, we immediately looked at Australia.

And it's interesting that Australian inventories are actually higher now than they were when we started this crisis. So there is crisis management being successfully employed. And I think you can see that around the world. I've just been in Mexico. All the planes are flying. The place is basically booming. going into the World Cup. And the joke that I had in my research this weekend is that the

malls are all buzzing, and these are high-end malls. They're all buzzing with kids buying Mexican World Cup tops, you know, because the Mexicans always have the best strips. The other name for that is Asian petrochemicals. So, you know, there is a petrochemical major issue that's about to emerge through the chain as well. You've shut down, you know, 40% of Asian petrchemical capacity. So the straight of Hormuz, I mean, I'm speaking for most of our listeners and viewers here, we couldn't find that on a map before. Now we all know about it. Is it ever going to go back to where it was in January? No, no, but you know, what's happening today is a couple of tankers have passed. So you're going to see, you know, the oil industry will

work out a way to smuggle. You can be sure of that. And I think that the U.S. announcement that they would allow Russian oil sales tells you that there's going to be, you know, that kind of a move where they probably you, you, you turn and start turning a blind eye to the Iranians moving stuff. And that would come out of the China meetings. The other huge thing, by the way, which is huge, is after China, Trump, you obviously saw China Vladimir Putin. And that's a big deal in oil, believe me.

So if we're 20% of our oil and gas comes out of that part of the world, did they just build more pipelines? But pipelines are also susceptible to stuff. I mean, what do we do in the straight-oomoo? You've got to open that thing up, don't you? Well, I think we've characterized this is an incredible time where it's Oax versus U.S. So it's the U.S. potential, you know, the U.S. Treasury's global power against drones. And drones have totally changed the shipping, you know, entire future.

It's just changed. Pipelines, you have 250,000 miles of pipelines in North America. You have 40,000 in the Middle East. So pipelines are totally a solution. And it's just that, you know, tank has never had a problem previously. And so you didn't worry about it. And actually, it's the Houthis that showed. You know, that's what was so scary to me when the straight shutdown is, by the way, we haven't opened the Suez Canal properly, and it's been three years.

Is that right? Oh, yeah. No, no, no. The Seas Canal throughput volumes are 50% of where they were before the hooty showed up. I got a different question, but let me get to it then right now. What's your gallon of gas gas? Yeah. Out a year.

I mean, are we getting used to $5 a gallon? You know, Midwest Radio always want me on when the gas price goes crazy. So I go on those shows, and I told them the other day, you're going to six. I don't think there's any doubt about $6 a gallon here this summer because we're just going into summer. Now, you'll get big data from the DOE today. Last night, the API data had one huge number in it, which was 10 million drawer in the SPR.

So you're running the SPR and obviously over a million in a week a day. You know what I mean? So you're going to run into a question with 390 million barrels in the SPR. You're going to run into a question now. Do you just keep allowing that to come into the market? And it's material. So there's a lot of inventory data. coming. Alexis, should I ask about the Wawa or the Caspian Sea? Which one? Oh, I go, I vote Wawa.

Wawa? Okay, it's a gallon of gas. You're telling me, John Tucker Carlson, at the Wawa, it's going to be six bucks a gallon. Well, of course, that's nationwide average. So that would be like eight, nine in California. Yeah, so I'm talking nationwide average six. I looked at Berlin the other day. They're going to go to 11 or 12 bucks a gallon. Yeah, they will. Oh, yeah, no, I don't have any doubts about that. And what's happening is that because the refiners are really pushing hard to make jet fuel. So a fascinating thing here is our jet fuel in between. trees are a record high. Absolutely fascinating. Because they're straining to do that. They're going to make less gasoline into driving season. And the other thing you've got to watch, I was talking about

base oil, is Alki, which gives you octane as short in California. So they can't make their grade. They can't make the fancy stuff. No, they can't get the same. Okay. You know, Paul and I say risk, folks. When we're done with the show, Paul comes off at 12 noon, and we're usually playing a board game of risk. I would guess 105 of 100 Americans don't know where the Caspian C is. I would say right now, It's fascinating, that transport, that dynamic. You're encyclopedic on something like Baku to this pipeline or that. Tell us, give me a 40-second, one-minute critique here of how we should look at the Caspian Sea. Well, I think the difference between playing a board game and going to the Caspian.

I've been to Tenghis, where the huge Chevron project is a million barrel a day, giant reef that was discovered from space by the Soviets. It's so huge. The tide there is eight miles daily. That's how flat and how far the water moves and how difficult it is to develop oil there. But generally speaking, yeah, the Caspian has unique position as well because Kazakhstan is sat right between Russia, China and the U.S. with Chevron and now Ukraine and the drones. So it's a fascinating and huge potential. Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of non-OPEC oil that's going to be developed here, no doubt.

Oh, excuse me. I'm so wound up. I forgot my mic. I'm thinking about John Tucker Carlson in six bucks. Again, so to Paul's question about the Hormuz is what's really going to happen here is all this non-OPEC is going to come on. Oh, no question. Yeah, over time. I mean, you know, one country I'm very interested right now is Argentina going to grow massively. Brazil has huge incremental sales to China of oil. And of course, Venezuela hopefully will boom. You know, Venezuela can easily supply. Can you imagine is Paul? Like the Hormuz doesn't matter. I'm not there yet.

I mean, Paul, you're energy guy, supply, demand. You get that. If I'm a politician, I can't allow $6 a guess. That can't happen. No, that's right. And that's going to be very interesting. And so my notes on Sunday was called watching the frog boil without blinking. And that, I think, is the outlet.

I think that's what will trigger a crisis response is actually going to be the U.S. gasoline price when it comes down to it. You've got the NASDAQ at a record high. Everything seems fine. The Knicks are on a great, you know, Nix have got a great crumbach. The world is just simply not ending in the United States, and I think that's affecting the president's sense of the crisis. But, you know, as oil analysts, we've almost, you know, gone quiet

because we were screaming so much six weeks ago. It's continued to progress on exactly the screaming path. Right. And you'll see it in the DOE data today, you know, big draws. Eventually you'll get to a point where the U.S. has to compete with international export sales. So the export sales are going to start fighting our domestic on price, and that's going to make U.S. domestic prices go vertical, especially as we don't really know where operational limits are.

So there's a point in inventory where you can't run the system, and we're going to hit that. And that's when prices go nuts, and we haven't hit it yet. Interesting. You lead a romantic life. It's like out of the price by Daniel Juergen. Where are you going next? Give me some romantic location.

Dude, you know, Shoreshick Resert, Demption, one of the great Wall Street films, and they dream of going to Zee Watanahoe in the Pacific is where they want to escape to. in fact, do escape to, and that's where I'm going next, June the 11th, to watch the World Cup. I got my Mexican shirts ready to go, and yeah, I'm really looking forward to that. Really looking forward to the World Cup. I mean, I'm a soccer game.

Do you think America can pull off the World Cup? You know, you always back the host, so I love here, you know, and traditionally do awfully, obviously Mexico, US, Canada. I really think you typically you do, and it's a traditional way of looking at it. You always get a run, you know, of the host nations. and so we'll see Mexico's got a tough group and they don't have that much talent. I don't understand why the U.S. They can get health from Tottenham.

Oh, yeah. Paul Sanky, thank you, thank you so much. Legendary on O'Helsenkie at research. We'll have them back soon. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio,

you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500. Or, if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies

exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by public investing. Rokered services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered advisor. Complete disclosure. Complete disclosure. available at public.com slash disclosures. Hey, it's Amy Brown here from Feeling Things with Amy and Kat. Okay, quick break.

This is for any parent or caregiver of a child that experiences allergic reactions from food, medicine, insects, or other allergy triggers. This time of year can feel like a lot. Summer activities, camps, travel, and getting ready for back to school. You're doing everything to make sure that your child is safe wherever you are, educating coaches, teachers, other parents on your child's allergy, scheduling doctors appointments, filling out camp and school forms and the million other things that come with managing your child's allergies. But at some point, you have to trust that they'll be okay

if an allergic reaction happens when you aren't there, which is why I want to tell you about Nethy, the only needle-free epinephrine nasal spray for those who weigh 33 pounds or more. It's used for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Neffey works as well as a needle injector and delivers the same trusted epinephrine. It's designed to be safe and easy to use at first sign of symptoms. So in a high stress moment, your child or someone else can act quickly to treat an allergic reaction, even if you're not there. Nephi is also small, discreet, and easy to carry, including in a backpack, lunchbox, or sports bag. So your child is prepared anywhere the day takes them.

Pay as little as $0 for at least four Neffi devices. Two packs. Through the co-pay savings program with commercial insurance. if eligible. Patients should not pay more than $199 for Nephi. If you have medical conditions or take certain medicines, your condition may worsen. Tell your doctor about nasal, heart, thyroid, or kidney issues. High blood pressure, Parkinson's, diabetes, if you're pregnant or breastfeeding, and all medications. Side effects include nasal discomfort, headache, runny nose, shakiness, and throat irritation.

These are not all side effects. Does your child need a new epinephrine prescription or refill? Don't wait. Ask a doctor about needle-free. Neffy today. Visit neffy.com or call 877 My Neffy to learn more. That's N-E-F-F-Y.com. On-DEC is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, On-deck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes.

at on deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by on deck or Celtic Bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app or watch us live on YouTube. We start strong here. He's a wonderful perspective out of being. Andreas Uderman has always given his great perspective with Vontable, chairman of their board of directors, and of course, venerated across finance in Europe as well. Just what's the mood into the summer in Europe? I mean, I know everyone takes a month of August off on like the ugly

Americans, but just what is the continental zeitgeist right now? Well, thanks for having me on, by the way, Tom Paul's great to be on. The sideguides is really one of questioning, you know, what's going to happen politically in Europe? There are a lot of elections coming up that look a bit dicey. And we saw Hungary swing in the pro-European camp, but there's a lot of concern about France, about Germany, going forward, the UK. People are concerned about competitiveness with the United States.

They're concerned about the trade war. They're concerned about their auto industry. so there is a lot of questioning of the future. Well, let's go there because you've got some visceral knowledge on it. Is the auto, is manufacturing done in Germany? Is it so messed up, particularly with the China, manufacturing at any price, that the Germany is under threat of losing that iconic image? No, I understand the question.

I think it's a relevant question, but I don't think, I think it's way too early to say Germany is done. We've seen waves of competitiveness in the past. If you recall, you know, the Japanese auto manufacturers getting into Europe in the 70s. Initial response by the Europeans was, again, import restrictions, chariffs, as a matter of fact, people don't remember that. But they sort of adapted and survived. There is a renaissance of the defense industry, as everybody knows. Some of these car plants, idle car plants are being repurposed to grow the defense industry in Europe.

So, yeah, I think it's too early to say, but certainly a lot of work ahead for the Europeans and particularly the Germans. Talk to us just about how Europe thinks about their energy dependence or their energy policy, energy strategy. Because first you had the Ukraine war and the challenges with Russia in that supply. Now you've got the mid-east. How is Europe thinking about its energy policy? Well, it's certainly thinking it needs to be more independent. Though I think the market's making too much of the dependency. If you recall, I think we even talked about this last time I was on the show in March.

Four years ago, when the Ukraine war broke, everybody's saying that the Germans wouldn't be able to heat their houses in the following winter. And nothing like that happened. So I think the Europeans are quite adaptable. I think it's going to push them more towards renewables, but certainly also, and that's an increasing discussion, certainly more towards going back to some form of nuclear as well, to ensure the base load of the grid. What's your view, or what's the view of Vontonamo about global markets here today? Where do you want to be given some of the geopolitical risk? Are you thinking geographically, U.S., non-U.S., Europe, Asia?

How do you think about just the geographics of Al-Qaeda? I think overall emerging markets look attractive. I think fixed income looks attractive. The risk to the capital that you invest in fixed income, with yields being much higher than there were four or five years ago, even if rates continue to back up is fairly low. So the roll-down will make that good very quickly. So I think fixed income security is certainly attractive.

I also think, funnily enough, that equity markets are quite reasonably priced for the majority of them. I mean, you've said this on this program. The rally has been very, very narrow. And a lot of stocks, a lot of sectors, consumer durables, are actually modestly valued. Right. You are as qualified as anybody I know to take this train of thought. I hope you're compliant. Can you see Andreas Uderman having to deal with compliance?

Oh, yeah. He can handle it. Jamie Dimon wants to come into Europe with a digital banking model. Is it a threat to the European complex of the financial system? How do they adapt to the idea that J.P. Morgan wants to come over to Europe? I don't think that's a concern for anybody. by the way, I do deal with compliance a lot increasingly. It's certainly a huge concern.

Also particularly for Fontobel. I mean, Fontobel has a very large US person's client base, and as you know, that's a pretty tricky thing to deal with. No, but I think the real threat or the real risk to the European banking sector, the competitive threat comes from the revolutes, the N-24s. These are proper indigenous native digital startups. And I think they can do most things better than even the mighty JP Morgan. See how he did that.

He dodged the question. He's just like polished. It's skilled to say, why don't you save the interview post? How do the investors in Europe think about AI? And how big of it? Because here it just seems to be everywhere. And that's all people want to talk about.

What's you from your, when you talk to your investors? I think it's a concern for a lot of people, similar to the United States. I think people in Europe particularly are concerned about the job market, employment, what it means for graduates, what it means for the education system. Do we need to retool the education system? Do we need to shift more towards vocational training, which is perhaps slightly less impacted by AI? I think the investors, by and large, the private investors that invest in our certificates

and our structured solutions, they do pretty much the same thing as in the U.S. They go for these big Nvidia's and so on of the stock market. Should I put some money on Belgium in the World Cup? Certainly a dark horse. Dark horse. Dark horse. As always.

I mean, I got to, you never, I'm always looking at these guys. They could always pop out. It's always like, you know, you think about Holland as well. That part of the world produces some soccer players that I don't know where they come. Totally. And remember we, You asked me about that last time in March?

Yeah. Won the league after 22 years for the first time. There you go. I'm looking at it. We got to go here. But Andrea, group G. Belgium, Egypt, Iran. Iran's going to have a team.

New Zealand. I mean, basically, is Egypt like a threat to Belgium? No, I think Belgium will go through the first round, for sure. Absolutely. That's my sleep. Do you sense any enthusiasm in America for the World Cup? This is a huge issue. I haven't heard anybody.

You're the first one to ask, yeah, on you, U.S. Seoul, to ask me about the world. And the final is going to take place just across the river there in the swamps of Jersey. If you ask the man on the street or the woman on the street, probably wouldn't even know it takes place, right? Yeah, it's a big worry right now. You know, I mean, our Jersey is our World Cup correspondent. We've got to run. Andreas, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks for having me on.

With Vontable, Andreas Uderman, you're the chairman and a great student of what's going on in Europe. Stay with us, more from Bloomberg's surveillance coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions, buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents

that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500. Or, if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks.

You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by public investing. Brokridge services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member Finra and SIPC. Advisory services by public advisors, LLC, SEC registered advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.

Hey, it's Amy Brown here from Feeling Things with Amy and Kat. Okay, quick break. This is for any parent or caregiver of a child that experiences allergic reactions from food, medicine, insects, or other allergy triggers. This time of year can feel like a lot. Summer activities, camps, travel, and getting ready for back to school. You're doing everything to make sure that your child is safe wherever you are. Educating coaches, teachers, other parents on your child's allergy, scheduling doctor's appointments,

filling out camp and school forms and the million other things that come with managing your child's allergies. But at some point, you have to trust that they'll be okay if an allergic reaction happens when you aren't there, which is why I want to tell you about Nethy. the only needle-free epinephrine nasal spray for those who weigh 33 pounds or more. It's used for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Neffi works as well as a needle injector and delivers the same trusted epinephrine. It's designed to be safe and easy to use at first sign of symptoms. So in a high-stress moment, your child or someone else can act quickly to treat an allergic reaction, even if you're not there.

Neffi is also small, discreet, and easy. Zeta Carrey, including in a backpack, lunchbox, or sports bag. So your child is prepared anywhere the day takes them. Pay as little as $0 for at least four Neffi devices. Two packs. Through the co-pay savings program with commercial insurance if eligible. Patients should not pay more than $199 for Neffi. If you have medical conditions or take certain medicines, your condition may worsen.

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OnDec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. With us now to get our Nvidia coverage started, we wanted to start strong. What matters is not only the Berkeley parchment and onto Chicago, but he spent a decade in China.

Jay, what's the street going to be looking for within video? earnings tonight. I mean, you know, three years ago, this Nvidia shocked the world with their big revenue guidance upside, which really crystallized the AI story for a lot of investors. What are investors looking for now? I think the main thing we're going to be looking for is the impact of the Vera Rubin upgrade to their numbers. They have a new, every year they have a new generation of chips, and this one is called Vera Rubin, and it's rolling in the numbers now,

and we're going to be looking for how big that impact is. is and how big, how much upside there can be to numbers. Jay, you look at ANR on the screen. Boy, I'll tell you, Jay, Goldberg, you're a lonely voice. You've got to sell on Nvidia. Do you maintain that now? And what do you need to capitulate and go long at 420 this afternoon? So just, I've always thought of this as an underperform.

I've never told anyone this short Nvidia. I've always told my clients, like, you have to be careful. But I think the way our rating structure works is we don't have underperform. We have buy and sell. And I think that that thesis has played out. It is underperformed pretty much since I launched coverage last year. If you look at it versus most of the rest of the semiconductor complex, it's underperformed, you know, the SMH ETF. It's underperformed.

Certainly this year is underperformed pretty much all the major large-cap semis. And there's like, just to be clear, like, I think Nvidia is a good company. Like they have good products, I think highly of Jensen Huang. But they've just gotten so big, it's hard for them to excite expectations the way they used to. Where is the competitive threat for a company of the size of Nvidia? Everywhere. Yep. Everywhere now.

So what are the names that you look at as real competitors to Nvidia right now? So right now the biggest competitors, you know, right now the biggest competitors, editor is Google's TPU, which is produced in large part through Broadcom. Right. Anytime in video loses share today, it's to someone making chip with Broadcom. But then that's just the start coming on stream. We have AMD is looking really, really good with their MI450 series, which is rolling out later this year.

Right. Numbers next year. Sarah Bross. And then all the hyperscalers are making their own chips as well. Right. Jamie, before you go, you've done 4,300 roadshow lunches doing IPOs. No one's had more rubber chicken than Jay Goldberg. The IPOs that are coming, you've never seen, I've never seen, Paul Sweeney's never seen.

Are these items sellable? How do you do a SpaceX IPO of that magnitude? That's a very good question. I think there is a lot of enthusiasm for tech right now. I mean, I think that goes without saying. So I think Elon Musk and his complex always attract enthusiastic followers. I think the demand story for the AI IPOs that could be coming later this year, like Anthropic and Open AI, those will have some incredible.

revenue numbers and some incredible operating losses. There'll be wild to see those numbers. So I think people just, I think that's the big story. Certainly in tech and probably across the broader economy is the rough of AI. Paul, get one more in here. Jay, what did you make of the IPO of Cerebrus last week? Just a massive, massive IPO, huge price above the, you know, the trading above the IPO price.

Yeah, that's one more Nvidia competitor out there. I think the story this year is for inference, which is like getting AI to actually do useful things for people. It's in very, very tight supply. There's not enough of it. And so everybody who does that for a living is scrambling to get supply. And Cerebrus came out right at the right time. Jay, don't be a stranger. Love to Avion again.

Legendary, Jay Goldberg, with us, Seaport. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the IHeartRadio app, tune-in, and the Bloomberg business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube, and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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