Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 3rd, 2026

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramwitz and Anne-Marie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are large. on Bloomberg television, weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business Out. We begin this hour with stocks looking to build on a record-breaking 9-day winning streak.

Cameron Dawson of New Edge Wealth, writing, You Can't Stop the Beats, with earnings beats and raises continuing to be the justification for new highs in equity markets. Cam joins us for more. Cameron, good morning. It's good to see you. Look, the fundamental story I think is well understood at this point. Yeah. super powerful. Where is the more speculative story emerging for you? Oh, well, we've seen an incredible

rally in the most speculative portions of the market. Look at the Goldman Sachs Unprofitable Tech Index, up 15% in last week alone. It's up 65% since the March lows. You look at the cohort of space names. Most of them are unprofitable. They're up 100% year to date. If you look at the Russell, 2,500, the leaders in that index are all coming from very unprofitable names. If you take out, or if you look at the names that are actually generating profit and up of in and trading at a discount, they're only up about 8%. So if you're a high quality name, you've been sitting out on, you've been sitting out on this rally. So the question is, how much can this speculative portion of markets continue? So we've got some froth. You've identified it. Technical's a stretch. People

have talked about that endlessly over the last two months or so. Is that enough reason to sit this out? No, it's not because the earnings picture is so very strong. But I think what we have to appreciate with the earnings story is two really big things. The first one is the upside in the hyperscalor capex. This time last year, we were expecting hyperscalor capx to be up 10%. That number today is 80%. So you remember that one man's capx is another man's profit, and that brings you to the other really important point about this earning story, which is that we are in an operating leverage boom driven by the semiconductors. These are typically high operating leverage businesses, which just means that a little bit of sales growth generates a lot of earnings growth.

And you've seen that because margins for semiconductors have expanded from 30% just nine months ago to 45% today. So because we're seeing this increase in sales, it's causing a huge boom in profits. But what we have to watch is that if sales slow down a little bit, what you could see is this de-leveraging of operating profits that could cause earnings growth to not be as robust as we look into 2027. I feel like we should have a bell that dings every time someone says earnings. Earnings, ding! Or do you think drinking game?

Wrong show, Brammer. Okay, well, we could change things. But you never know. You know, drinking coffee. There is an ultimate question. Is it just going to be an earnings deceleration that's going to potentially drive some sort of correction to this? Or could it just be by virtue of the supply that's coming to market? Oh, I think that's a really interesting and important point because we've been in a world for the last few years where we've seen equity supply effectively.

falling. We've seen much more buybacks than we've seen any new equity issuance. At the same time as equity demand has been very strong simply because we push so much liquidity into the system during the COVID era. So we learn in economics 101 when supply drops and demand goes up, prices go up. So now we're in an environment where supply is certainly going up, whether it's from the IPOs or the Google issuance. And that just suggests that there's a lot of supply for this market to take down. And the question is, is there the incremental demand to absorb all this incremental supply. So it very much is what we'd think of as a Shakespearean sea change when it comes to that supply demand balance for the equity market. How do you clear space to participate in some of

these IPOs? Do you, I mean, how do you sort of understand what to sell in order to play ball right now? Yeah, well, the indices are forced to, and I think that that's probably one of the most important points is that the indices are now being forced to put a weight in these names. And mostly for the NASDAQ, where there's going to be a multiplier on the float for a name like SpaceX. I think the question for us is that we will stick to our knitting when it comes to valuation, discipline, and quality. And you look at name like SpaceX trading at what could be 80 to 100 times sales. On sales that have been growing about 30%, they've decelerated to 15% back in the first quarter. But when you traded at 80 to 100 times sales, even when those sales actually become something that becomes reality, the problem is you have to grow into that fulsome multiple.

Palantir is a great example of this. Palantir traded to 90 times sales in the middle of last year during that big huge rally we had. And then the sales came. Sales are going to grow 72% this year. But the stock has been flat because we've had to grow into that high price to sales multiple. So for us as quality investors will always stay balanced with that valuation discipline. Cameron, though, do you think it's uncomfortable that, I mean, the Bank of America Fund Manager's survey show this record inflow, most overweight position since 2002, into equities? Is it uncomfortable that everyone is there? Well, what's fascinating is that we are seeing those inflows because people are having to chase. If you look at the Deutsche Bank Consolidated Equity Positioning Index, it's only in the 61st percentile.

And that has gone into the danger zone. If you go back to late 2021, you were in the 90th percent plus. So there are signs that institutions have somewhat sat on the sidelines of this rally. I don't think that you can say the same thing for households, household equity allocation, are still at all-time highs. If you look at things like the put-call ratio, that speaks to some of that complacency and already there.

Put-call ratios are incredibly low, which just means that nobody is caring about downside protection right now. So the balance of overall positioning is that it's not enough to be a tail-end of this market, but it's probably not quite enough to be an absolute headwind like we got to back at the end of 2021.

To Lisa's point, though, where are people selling? Is it other equities, or are they just maybe selling things like crypto, treasury, to make sure they can get into some of these high fires? The fact that crypto is sitting out on this risk on rally does suggest that people are potentially using that as liquidity to chase other areas of the market.

Because look, we know that there are a lot of momentum traders out there that are just chasing strong returns. So potentially that is the area where people are using that as liquidity to chase into something like SpaceX. Stay with us. More Blenberg surveillance coming up after this.

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If there is a greatest hits of topics that people on Wall Street do not want to talk about, the Stradiformers is up there, and this is too, the Trump administration fighting back against the Supreme Court's tariff defeat with a fresh wave of levies, including a 10% charge on imports from 60 different trading partners. Libby, Counselor Pimco, joins us now for more. Libby, good morning. I'm here to talk about this. I'm here for it. You get the short straw.

We can change the topic. pretty quickly, your thoughts on this action. Where's this going and how big is this wall going to be? Even though I think this was sort of in the rearview mirror for Wall Street, this is actually very much expected. As a reminder, when the AIPA tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court, the president of the USTR moved forward with something called Section 122 tariffs, the sort of blanketed 10% tariffs across the board. Those expire, though, on July 24th. So those have sort of a limit to this. So we were expecting that they would be using some of these other tools that Congress has actually provided to the president to move forward to try to rebuild

that tariff wall, as you said. I think some of the interesting things is that this tariff rate is maybe a little bit more benign, a little bit more reasonable, certainly than those that we had seen on Liberation Day, but even those that we had seen kind of post-liberation Day. So I think probably the effective average tariff rate, this might actually landed at a lower rate, you know, at the end of the day. But again, none of this is surprising. I also think, and there's a deficit angle here, which I know Lisa does like to talk about. Of course, this is revenue that the Treasury likes, that the U.S. is sort of getting, you know, addicted to it, if you will. It's one of the reasons why we think tariffs are going to be sticky, sort of regardless of who wins in 2028, because this is

something that is generating quite a lot of revenue. And again, sort of politically is salient on both sides of the aisle. Where does this put some of the trade deals, though, that they have with Switzerland, the European Union, his massive summit with Xi Jinping? Yeah, I mean, that is, I think, an open question, Amory. I think we've been a little bit skeptical of some of those pledges around those trade deals. Anyway, you haven't necessarily seen some of those investments come to fruition, for instance. We'll see with sort of the European trade deal in particular, just given that that is, you know, sort of pending in the EU. So, yeah, I think it's an open question for, you know, for sure. Obviously, at PIMCO, you're tracking the mortgage market and what is going on with

FHFA. And the director of FHFA now is... the acting director of national intelligence. What was your reaction to Bill Pulte moving over to this space? Yeah, I would say, you know, I think we would argue that second to the treasury market, the agency Mohammed bin Salman market is probably the most important market, particularly to us, but I think, you know, just sort of writ large because, of course, that sets the mortgage rate that, you know, consumers access. You know, this is, I mean, it's an interesting choice. Obviously, Bill Pulte, as been said, doesn't necessarily have the traditional background for an, for a DNI director. I think the one thing that is important, though, is this is an acting position.

And just as a reminder, something called the Vacancies Act, that allows the president to move somebody in a vacant position, which is a Senate-confirmed position, only if that other person is Senate confirmed, only for 210 days. So I think it was very, I think the president was very specific that this was an acting position. He hasn't actually nominated him for the permanent position. That would, of course, require Senate confirmation. So I think my view we'll see is that this is probably a temporary post, not a permanent post.

I do think, though, as it relates to the mortgage market, this takes the chances of an IPO for Fannie and Freddie very much off the table. That has been our view at PIMCO for many years. We think that risks actually increasing the mortgage rate, not decreasing the mortgage rate, which is anathema to what the administration wants at this point anyway. We think this is sort of the death now for the IPO of Fannie and Freddie. This is actually incredibly important for a lot of people in the market. and they actually might view this as a bullish sign because there won't be more at risk introduced into the privatization

of these particular agencies. Do you have the same kind of view? Yeah, and I think we've been, you know, engaging with policymakers and we said one thing that they could do was clarify the future of Fannie and Freddie and sort of take this idea of privatization off the table. I mean, they are, you know, for better or for worse, they're functioning incredibly well in conservatorship

in terms of providing liquidity to the secondary mortgage market. And if you do anything to sort of, upset the relationship between the government and Fannie and Freddie, you do see that risk premium come back into mortgage yields. And so, you know, we think that there's an argument to be made that maybe some more clarification can actually decrease mortgage yields. Of course, that's what the administration wants. I find it fascinating. You're right. Tariff's not that exciting to me right now, just because it seems to leave us in the same place. The Strait of Ramos isn't necessarily

analyzable, but this particular administration in Washington, D.C., has had more direct influence on markets than any of I can remember in recent and modern history, whether it's personal sign off by the president on specific transactions, whether it's job-boating specific companies that are doing different things. How big are the lobbying bills? I mean, do you see all the lobbyists just sort of gathering around there to try to make sure that that deal gets in front of the right person? Well, yeah, I think this is sort of interesting about this president is that, you know, a lot of what he is doing in terms of private industry is very much more indicative or in sort of with what Democrats have done, right? Sort of the state capitalism, industrial policy. This used

to be sort of the purview of Democrats, picking winners and losers. Now, you know, President Trump is doing it. So yes, absolutely, our lobbyists kind of lining up. I would say just going back to this discussion of the mortgage market, something important that Fannie and Freddie have done, is that they've been in the market. They've been buying agency Mohammed bin Salman to try to decrease that mortgage rate. We think that's actually been quite effective. Now, that was sort of upset by the Iran war. So I think in some ways it was negated by that. But it will be interesting, I think, just in terms of the Bill Pulte discussion, will that continue? Will they continue to be in the market trying to decrease yields? But yeah, I mean, broadly, this administration, obviously much more

interventionist than a traditional Republican administration. You've got to really think through about what we're normalizing care. Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions, buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English, like if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500, or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk.

Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by public investing. Brokridge services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member Finra and SIPC. Advisery Services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC

Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. When you own your own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. The Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business Card brings the best Sapphire Reserve benefits to business owners who expect hardworking rewards. Designed to meet the needs of business owners at scale, this pay-in-full card elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits and value toward business services that will take your business to the next level. Fuel your business and maximize rewards with 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, annual partnership credits, and more.

Make every journey more rewarding with a $300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges, whether you're looking for pre-flight productivity or time to rest and recharge. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business. It's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more at chase.com forward slash reserve business. Chase for business, make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval. Restrictions and limitations apply.

Cards are issued by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank NA, member FDIC. Any team that's tested AI tools for data has seen the pattern already. AI gives a different number than your BI tool. Metrics don't match across teams. and inevitably, users lose trust. It turns out turning on AI is easy, but making it work on data is not. Hex AI was built to solve this.

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because it knows your business and its data. Because that's what an AI analytics platform should do. Join data teams from cursor, lovable, ramp, AWS, and over 2,000 more at hex.a.I. The former US Vice President Mike Pence, warning of threats to the Republican Party. in his latest book, what conservatives believe rediscovering the conservative conscience, Mike Pence writing, quote, Trump has not always governed as a conservative. The result is that many Americans are confused about what it means to be a conservative. I'm very pleased to say the 48th vice president of the United States. Mike Pence joined us now for more. Mr. Vice President, welcome back to Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg TV. Thank you. Great to be back on. It's good to see you, sir.

I'll ask that question to you. What does it mean to be a conservative? Well, for decades, The Republican Party has really been the home of conservatism in this country. It's a commitment to limited government, free market economics, strong defense, American leadership in the world and traditional values, has really guided the Republican Party since Ronald Reagan came to the White House. And it's why I and millions of Americans were drawn to the Republican Party over the years. Our principal contest was against the liberal Democratic Party over those decades, but as the Democratic Party has been overtaken by more progressive left policies, including socialist policies, not just in New York, but all around the country, I wrote the book because I wanted Republicans to know that there's a new threat to that conservative agenda from within our movement, from a populist right that would really challenge. challenge our commitment to limited government, to free enterprise, challenge America's role as leader of the free world, marginalized values. And I do think, as you quoted, from the book that many are confused about what it means to be a conservative. So that's what inspired what conservatives believe.

Well, you served alongside him, of course, in the first term. Was he a conservative then? Well, I think, look, I say this in the book. You know, I know Donald Trump better than his most ardent offenders. We work together every day and spoke every day for four and a half years. And in fairness to the president, he's actually never said he was a conservative. In fact, I lost count of the number of times that I would say in conversations in the Oval Office, well, that position is a conservative position. And he would wave his hand and say, well, conservative, it's just common sense.

And so, but in our administration, I will tell you, I think we were very faithful in most cases to the traditional conservative agenda, appointing conservative judges, upholding the rule of law, and particularly in the area of free market and economics and free enterprise. You know, we cut taxes, rolled back regulations, unleashed American energy. But on economic issues, I think it's becoming more apparent, particularly in the big of the business. business community across this country. With the advent of broad-based tariffs imposed on friend and foe alike, that while they were turned back by the Supreme Court, we saw the news this morning of a new round of tariffs attempted by the USTR.

The nationalization of American businesses was something we never countenanced in our administration. It's much more a part of traditional socialist thinking around the world. price controls on pharmaceuticals and credit cards. I think these are policies that come out of the populist right, Anne Marie, and they represent a real shift. Now, let me, can I just say, I think the second Trump administration has gotten a lot right, standing up to Iran, standing with Israel, extending those tax cuts,

securing our border. But on some key issues, we've seen those populace right policies take hold. And I want conservatives around the country to know that. These are ideas that you would hear from a Senator Elizabeth Warren or Senator Bernie Sanders. It is. But the issue in Washington right now is there's not a lot of people speaking out against this in Congress. Do you feel that Trump has gotten a lot more carte Todd Blanche this time around? Well, I think so. I mean, the president is the leader of the party and with majorities in the Congress. I think there's been a tremendous amount of deference to the president. But

But you put a fine point on it. In fact, in my book, I point out when the president first announced a nationalization policy, it might have been the golden chairs in U.S. Steel. Elizabeth Warren said memorably, Donald Trump has come across an idea that I came up with years ago. And John might argue whether nationalization was something Elizabeth Warren came up with. There might be a deeper history in other parts of the world. But I honestly believe that there's a... not been a great deal of awareness broadly among grassroots Americans about some of these shifts,

but people are starting to wake up to it. And I hope my book is a part of that awakening. Not just because I think conservative policies are good for the Republican Party. It's because I believe freedom, free market economics, commitment to limited government and American leadership in the world. It's good for America. To build on what Amory was talking about, though, we've seen recent primary elections and the people who are considered a bit more populist have been the winners of the Republican primary process. Those are the ones that have been backed by President Trump. He still has quite a bit of clout in getting those to Congress, to Washington, D.C. He is, in many ways, the Republican Party. Do you think that the Republican Party that you're talking about

still exists? Oh, I do. And don't leave out his influence in primaries in Louisiana and Kentucky and Indiana, some state Senate races in Indiana. Look, the president enjoys tremendous support among Republican primary voters. And I think it derives from the fact that from the time he came down that golden escalator here in New York City, he has been willing to fight the radical left. He did it during our years together. He did it since, battled through lawfare, won back the White House. And I think there's a great appreciation by,

Republican voters for his continued fight against the radical left. But what I wrote the book for was just to make sure that we don't conflate the loyalty to the president with, as some on the populist right would have, an embrace of a new agenda for the Republican Party. I think the Republican party has to be a party committed to free market economics and limited government and all the ideals and principles. I'm particularly troubled at Anne-Marie. with your background on foreign affairs, particularly, I'm particularly troubled about the stops and starts on American support for Ukraine. It was the populist right voices inside and outside the administration that actually argued against striking Iran's nuclear facilities a year ago

and even launching Operation Epic Fury. And even more troubling to me is voices on the populace writer questioning America's support for Israel. And with that rhetoric, actually descending at times into the dark hallways of anti-Semitism, look, that's not who conservatives are in this country. It's not what conservatives believe. And I try and call it out in the book. Let's finish on one particular policy debate that I think will be a defining policy debate for the next decade, perhaps, and that's AI. I've sat here wondering at times, what is the conservative position? What will the conservative position be? I know what the left will do and how they respond. Tax redistribute. Tax redistribute. What's the conservative position on that technology?

What's it going to be? How will it evolve in the next 10 years or so? Well, I encourage you to read my book, John, because you'll see. I just got a copy, sir. I'm only halfway through. I'm not the national death. I think there is a, look, the conservative view would be that technology is neutral. It's neither good nor bad. I greatly admire the former chairman of Intel who's written a wonderful book entitled AI for good. And I think it's imperative that as we move into this, that we trust the marketplace, but that also we ensure that artificial intelligence work for us in the way that we want it to impact our economies in our workplace. And most importantly for conservatives is that it respects the values. the universal values of the overwhelming majority of the American people

who believe in and cherish freedom and cherish the importance of family. You know, when you see troubling stories about chat programs that actually assist teenagers in finding ways to take their own life with tragic consequence, I think it's absolutely important. imperative, the conservative step forward and say, let's create the guardrails around AI so that consumers will have places to go for AI that really reflects our goals, our objectives,

our values, and let the marketplace work. Yeah, that's what I'm kind of getting at. I can trust the market. We're on Bloomberg. I think there's a great tradition of support for free markets and limited government, in our audience at least. Can we trust the leadership of these companies? Well, I think that's the real question today.

And what we want to do is facilitate the emergence of alternatives within the marketplace. Look, I think the American people have understandably have concerns about AI, but have given the opportunity to spend their dollars and spend their business resources on AI that works for us and respects those universal values. I trust the American people will choose well. The one thing on AI, to Jonathan's earlier point about what the left is going to do, Bernie Sanders says he wants to tax these companies 50%. Steve Bannon, which you know well from Trump's first term, one of his key architects of his rise and how Trump would speak, doesn't think Bernie Sanders goes far enough. Is that going to be the Republican position, whether you agree with it or not, in 2028? Republicans don't raise taxes. Republicans cut taxes.

And I would caution you against giving anybody too much credit for Donald Trump's rise other than Donald Trump. I mean, President Trump understood. That's where the base is right now. Well, you know, I honestly think that when you talk about the base, which is one of my least favorite terms in politics, we talk about our core voters. As I said to Lisa, there's great, great appreciation and affection for the president. It's totally understandable for the fight that he's waged against the radical left the last 10 years. But on the populist right, there are voices that want to take that loyalty and permanently change the direction of the Republican Party to a big government party that embraces protectionism, isolationism, marginalizes values. And to put a fine point on it, I don't think that's what conservatives believe.

When did you last speak to each other? You know, we spoke shortly after he won re-election. And we had a warm exchange, John. What did you talk about? I just congratulated him. Yeah. And I could tell he was moved by that, as was the first lady. Look, I, you know, the president and I served together very closely.

He wasn't just my president, he was my friend. Our administration didn't end the way I wanted it to, but I'll always believe, by God's grace, I did my duty that day. But, you know, for me, it's, I want this president to succeed. I love this country. And I don't talk to the president as often as I used to, but I get the distinct impression that he still listens to me. And so I hope he gets a chance to go. I listen to you as well, and I promise you I'll read the book.

It's going next to the Thatcher biography on the bedside table, all right? Let's see you, sir. This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. watch the show live on Bloomberg TV, weekday mornings from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

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