Why do some companies wait to IPO?

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In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizzo. It is Thursday. Today, this one is the 21st of May. Make it as always to have you along, everybody. I am just going to read from the SpaceX S-1 that came out last night. That's the first form that companies have to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission to start the process of going public. Our mission, it says, is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life

multi-planetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars. So Elon Musk and the gang are taking a big swing indeed. This is the first look under the financial hood of the Rocket Company, which also owns the social media platform X, as well as XAI. It's coming before its expected IPO next month, which could wind up with a $1.75 trillion with a T-dollar valuation. This is the first in a string of mega IPOs that are lined up. Open AI as soon as this fall, perhaps Anthropic after that. Point is, this hasn't happened before.

Companies hitting the public markets for the first time with such enormous valuations. Marketplaces Megan McCarty Carino starts us off. When the web browser Netscape went public in 1995, it was barely a year old. At 11 a.m. this morning, the company's stock went public and Wall Street went bonkers. That kicked off the dot-com boom, says Jay Ritter, an economist at the University of Florida. There were lots of startups that went public at a very early stage where it wasn't at all clear who their survivors were going to be. That created a risk for retail investors, but also opportunity to get in on the ground floor of tech companies that would build unimaginable fortunes like Google and Amazon. In the last few decades, they've been delaying going public.

SpaceX is 24 years old. Open AI is 10. Anthropic is only five, but all have mature businesses generating billions in revenue. It means gains have accrued to a smaller group of private investors and venture capital firms. And that important details about these companies' business models have been less transparent, says Minmo Gang, a professor of finance at Cornell. Once you go public, companies can no longer cherry pick what pieces of information. want to disclose. While these companies have booming revenue, Gang says they're not likely to be profitable in the near future because they're spending so much on hardware. But there's a lot of pent-up demand to invest in the technology. People are increasingly using every day, says analyst Daniel Newman at Futurum Group. These are companies that could legitimately take almost all of

the market's liquidity for a short period of time because there's going to be so many funds, institutions, and retail investors are all going to want to participate and all be part of this. A lot of individual investors have already been trying to scoop up shares ahead of the IPO on the secondary market, not always through official means. One investment banker offered his Bay Area home for sale in exchange for anthropic shares. I'm Megan McCarty Carrino for Marketplace. Wow, that is a big swing indeed. Wall Street today, stocks up, oil down. Stop me if you've heard that one before, we will have the details when we do the numbers.

The average price of a new car in this economy at the moment sits right around $50,000. So the news from Stalantis this morning was interesting market share-wise. The global carmaker with more than a dozen brands, Fiat, Pujo, Jeep Dodge, and Chrysler among them, says it's going to introduce nine new models that'll sell for less than $40,000. Daniel Ackerman has more now on cheaper new cars. A little history lesson from auto analyst Glenn Friedrich Merz. If I go back to say 1965 or 75, car quality was poor. Which means there was a strong,

incentive to buy new cars. A used car was a lemon, a junker was about to explode. So automakers offered new cars at every price point. But Friedrich Merz says car quality has improved so much that customers who want something affordable can now safely buy used

higher-end models. So the entry-level competition is no longer Corolla versus Versa. It's a corolla versus a used Camry. Why when I buy the bigger car

in pretty much equivalent shape for the same amount of money. And so some automakers have abandoned their most affordable models altogether, says David Wiston, an auto analyst with Morningstar. There's a lot more profit in selling a Highlander than there is a Corolla. And there's been more demand for that Highlander, too, says Aaron Keating of Cox Automotive. We do continue to see a consumer that is looking for the larger, more technologically advanced vehicles. But major price increases on those big new SUVs are starting. to push some consumers to the brink, says Tyson J.D. Power. Plus, automakers are eyeing the possibility

of lower-cost competitors hitting the market. They're thinking, you know, what happens if Chinese automakers enter the U.S.? What happens if a lot of the competitors build plants in the U.S. and can start avoiding tariffs or, you know, future tariffs or whatever it is? Jomini says Stalantis may want to acquaint American consumers with its affordable models before any of that happens. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

We're going to talk about trade quite a bit in the second half of the program, big picture trade war kind of stuff. But the reality is all that big picture stuff is made up of a whole lot of more granular stuff, which for us right now is element number 74. on the periodic table, tungsten. It's a metal that's critical to all kinds of industries, especially manufacturers that need to cut other kinds of metal. Most of the tungsten used here comes from China, which controls, give or take, 80% of the world's supply, and the trade discontent between the two countries

has sent tungsten prices up 300% over the past year or so. That's according to the CRU group. As Marketplace Justin Ho reports, though, that tungsten inflation has less to do with tariffs, And it does with another weapon in the global trade war, export controls. A big reason why tungsten is unique is that it has a very high resistance to heat. And so that makes it ideal for handling the temperatures required to melt other metals without it melting itself. That's Chris Blench, CEO of Mavericks Manufacturing Partners,

a company near San Diego that makes components for the energy and defense sectors. Blinch says tungsten is commonly used as the electrode when welding parts for those sectors. All of our aircraft, missile systems, nuclear, right? So the nuclear power plants for submarines and aircraft carriers, they'll use a lot of this particular kind of a process using tungsten. About once a month, Mavericks Manufacturing Partners will order a 10-pack of tungsten electrodes, which are the thin rods that go into welding tools. But last fall, the company noticed that prices were starting to rise.

So Joe Thompson, the company's chief operating officer, loaded up on a year's supply. Because at that time it wasn't really a huge cost, right? But we can stock it. Thompson says that ended up being the right call. Prices of those 10 packs have more than tripled in the time since, in part because there's a lot of demand from the defense sector. Tungsten's used to make torpedoes and armor-piercing ammunition. Nicholas Anasi with CRU Group says that's partly because of the Iran War and because Europe's spending more on defense.

If we look at the particular example of Germany, we see that Germany is reconverting part of the war. the manufacturing operations into military projects. But the reason why prices have skyrocketed this year also has to do with supply, since China controls so much of the market. China has implemented export restrictions, meaning that only those who get a license can actually sell tungsten overseas. China is trying to hang on to its tungsten, along with other critical metals,

to safeguard its own interests, says Leah Fahy, senior China economists with capital economics. But equally, the other key thing is that it's being used as a bargaining tone, a way of causing pain to the U.S. and the U.S.'s allies. That's partly because of the Trump and Biden administration's tariff policies, but it's also because the U.S. has been using its own export controls on China. One of the key things that the U.S. has been doing to restrict China in recent years is restricting China's access to U.S. semiconductors and the products used to make those semiconductors. There are efforts in the U.S. and elsewhere to find more sources of tungsten.

But Damien Ma, with a think tank Carnegie, China, says that mines are a risky proposition that would require more than the private sector. This is why China has succeeded, is that they've applied basically economy-wide industrial policy to get these strategic metals because the markets were not really going to be investing in these areas. The U.S. has awarded money to companies to study the possibility of domestic tungsten mining, but any new source would be at least years away. And until then, companies are beholden to whatever China decides to do.

I think the world's waking up to the fact that if any one country controls a commodity, it's a high risk for the whole world. That's Brendan Moore, co-owner of Wolftooth Components, a company near Minneapolis that makes bike parts. It uses tungsten tools to whittle down blocks of aluminum into pedals, gears, and other components. Moore says the company spends a few thousand dollars a month on these tools. And over the past year, prices have nearly doubled. A few thousand dollars isn't life-changing for a machine shop, the size of ours,

but it's significant, significant enough that you see it in the numbers. Moore says the company can resharpen the tools, so they last longer. But beyond that, there's not much else he can do. It's just another one of those things where, like aluminum prices going up or anything else, electricity going up, we largely just have to eat it in the short term. Moore says he really doesn't want to pass the cost onto his customer. But if Tungsten stays expensive, he might have to. I'm Justin Howe for Marketplace.

Well, let's see. We've talked about spaceships with SpaceX. Cars 2 with Stalin. Now, how about boats, fishing boats in particular, in the, say, 20 to 30-foot range? Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy. My name is Matyash Kydler. I'm the owner and operator of a small-scale fishing company on Oahu, Hawaii.

I'm still somewhat in the transition to it. I started about five, six years ago. going out for fun on the weekends. I was in the Army for about eight years, and then I got out of that in 2019, and I was teaching middle school. Last year, I moved more toward full-time fishing.

Originally, the goal was just to cover expenses, and then make a little bit of money, and then last year I was trying to at least pay for the money, mortgage. And then my wife is a teacher, she pays for the rest right now. Right now is the very beginning of Ahi season. A lot of what I catch I sell to local families. Sometimes when I have more than I can unload myself, I take it to the auction block over in Honolulu. There are lots of other fishermen who go out and try to make a living. by fishing commercially.

A lot of them have other jobs too. Contractors, or they'll do construction or kind of whatever work they can to supplement fishing because as fun as it is and as good as it can be, lots of times when the fish are biting good, then everybody's catching, which pushes the price down. And then other times, there's not much biting. and you have to put a lot of time and a lot of resources into just getting a few.

I've gotten a master's in diplomacy and military studies and in cybersecurity. But I don't really want to do either of those things after having studied them. Being able to sell your catch is super satisfying. I don't know if I'll ever get to the point where I'll be able to like make a full living off of it and definitely won't ever get rich doing it but as long as I can get by doing something that I love, that's kind of all I need.

There you go, right? Maches Cridler fishing for a living in Oahu in Hawaii. This series only works with your stories.

You know, so share them with us, if you like. Marketplace.org is where you can do that. Coming up, we have to fight a trade war. You're not allowed to say, I don't want to play in this game. So how do you win? First, though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrial's up 276. Today, 6 tenths percent, 50,000 285. The NASDAQ added 22 points, a 10th percent, 26, 293.

The S&P 500 gained 12 points, 2 tenths percent, 74 and 45. The federal government is going to be investing $2 billion in companies developing quantum computing. The money is coming from the Chips Act, signed by President Biden. International Business Machines will get a billion dollar investment for new quantum venture, accumulated 12.4% on the day chipmaker global foundries. It gets roughly a third of that. It added almost 15% today. Deer & Company reported its second quarter profits were down.

Thanks to sluggish demand for heavy farm equipment. We talked about the farm economy the other day. Deer down five and two-tenths of one percent. You're listening to Marketplace.

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This and other information can be found in the fund's perspectives at fundrise.com slash flagship. This is a paid advertisement. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdal. It's a week now since President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The results of those talks were honestly a little vague, but more talks do seem to be in the offing. As of right now, we have been in a trade war with China for eight years, and we cover it a lot. Today, though, we're going to do trade policy writ large, and we're going to do it by talking about a book by Summae Keynes.

She's a columnist at the Financial Times and Chad Bown. He's a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. And their book is called How to Win a Trade War, an optimistic guide to an anxious global economy. Welcome to the program. It's good to have you on. Good to be here. Thanks for having us.

Would one of you please, just so we all have the same definition here, tell me what a trade war is? Yeah. Well, that's a big question. I think most people think of trade wars as Trump-style tariff attacks. And what we are saying is that trade wars are much broader than that, right? So trade wars involve parties weaponizing trade flows, using trade to coerce other actors, make others do what they want. It's a scary world out there. I was told, Chad Bound,

that one cannot win a trade war, and yet here you and Smey are having written a whole book about it. Help me out here. Well, I was actually one of the people who used to say such a thing. I think you said it's me on this program, actually. I think I have. But that was the old world. And unfortunately, we're in a new world now where we have to fight a trade war. You're not allowed to say, I don't want to play in this game. And given that, the way to win is to do the best that you can. Sometimes that's to minimize your wounds. But we think there's actually more opportunities there than that, that you can actually do better if you actually learn how to fight.

Well, go on, one of you, because we all know that trade wars are not great, and it's not going. great. Yeah, so there are essentially two big trade wars happening right now, right? You've got the trade war that President Trump started on everyone, but then you've also got the slower burn trade war that China is essentially fighting with the rest of the world. And this is essentially what Trump is distracting from, right? By fighting trade wars with everyone else, he's distracting from that big problem. So step one of winning a trade war is identify the right trade war, but also logistics win real wars, right? And so winning a trade war means doing the prep, means identifying where you're weak, identifying where you're strong, considering all the weaponry. So stockpiling, you know,

giving companies handouts in this world of economic conflict, we have to consider these weapons because that's the world we're in. Everyone else is fighting dirty. And so unfortunately, we've got to learn how to as well. Chad, does it ever strike you or does it ever occur to you how amazing it is that we're here. You're a guy who spent his whole life on trade and trade policy, right, in academia and in the government. And here you are now, literally in the middle of a trade war. It really does. It's at some level a little bit surreal. We've thought so hard about how it is that you actually do need to use things like subsidies in industrial policy, stockpiling, and tariffs to get yourself out of these situations. It is a little bit weird to realize that

yeah, I'm now saying this. But it's the reality that we're now in. And China is really a big part of this story. And these are some of the tools that you have to figure out how to use effectively when you're going to engage with China in a trade war. The thing is, though, Sumaya, you know, so let's go back before Trump won, right? Before the original steel and aluminum tariffs in the previous 40-ish, maybe 80-ish years. It's not like global trade was great, but there were rules and there were things that people did and didn't do. And it kind of seems like they don't apply anymore, right?

Yeah. And I think that's for a couple of reasons, right? I mean, the obvious one is that President Trump is not a rule-abiding guy, right? It's not his personality type. But also, we've got China's system, and there are certain aspects of it that are just not really compatible with the rules that we have. have now. The rules of the trading system are supposed to constrain the way that governments give money to their companies, to give them handouts, to give them a competitive advantage. Now, the problem is that the way China gives out subsidies is incredibly opaque, incredibly hard to pin down.

And so those old rules just didn't work. And for a while, we tried, but we just have to accept the world we're in right now. Chad, I don't want to go too deep on the Great Man theory of history, but you and Smey had a piece in the New York Times the other day about the recent summit between President Trump and President C. And you do basically, I'm paraphrasing, you correct me if I'm wrong, this is never going to work with those two guys in charge, basically. They're not seeking to get to a solution, I think, on this problem. And so what we argued is you probably do need to have a different approach between these two economies. And one of it is to recognize the, especially on the things, case of the Chinese side, they have built up so much market dominance in manufacturing sectors.

We all know now these examples of rare earths and permanent magnets that U.S. companies are reliant on to be able to make things here at home, that you have to do something about that, right? You need to reduce those dependencies somehow. And right now, those two players, really, they've got a short-term truce. We're not going to raise tariffs on you if you give us some of those rare earths and permanent magnets, but they haven't come to a resolution between themselves allowing us to reduce that dependency on the United States side. And what we would propose is a way to actually tackle that kind of problem to prevent it from spilling up and escalating in a way that it did really

last year, which was the root of some of the problems in the, in the relationship between the two countries. Just to jump on that, you know, in an ideal situation, the U.S. would say, look, we are going to, you know, we're going to borrow less money. We're going to, we're going to do policies at home that means that the trade deficit would fall. The Chinese would spend a bit more themselves. They would import a bit more. But for that to happen, both Trump and Xi Jinping would need to have personality transplants, I think was the line in the New York Times piece, right? It's not going to happen. And so, again, we can't wish that we were in that perfect world. We've got to be pragmatic.

And maybe the best we can do is manage the fallout as these two leaders or, you know, countries really, thinking about the longer term, are trying to reduce that over dependencies on each other. Okay, so look, not to quibble with the choice of the sub title here. The book is called How to Win a Trade War, an Optimistic Guide to an Axis Global Economy. When do we get to the optimistic part? Yeah, this is my confession. Okay, so I think it is optimistic in that we're really not trying to throw up our hands. and say, oh, isn't it all terrible?

And, you know, woe is, woe is me. There are things you can do. There are ways to fight a trade war better. Where we are a bit pessimistic is how long it's going to take to get some, to get to something stable, right? And that could take a really long time. If you look back at the 20th century, it took decades. It took the Second World War to persuade people that actually we need some kind of stable system.

And, you know, fingers crossed that we don't need that again. Chad Bown, you get the last word. Decades and decades. That's a bit daunting. It is. But again, I'm with Simea. We have to be optimistic about this. We do have a lot of lessons from economic evidence, from history, about how to manage the challenges that we are facing right now, how to do things better.

And that's where some of the optimism comes from. Right now, I think we're in a place where we're not doing that well. We can do it better. Here's a guide to show us the way. Chad Bounds, Mayor Caines, their book is called How to Win a Trade War. Thanks, you too. Appreciate your time. Thanks for having us.

All right, we got to go. Too much talking trade. Not enough time for a final. Our daily production team includes Livy Burdette, Andy Jeremy Corbyn, Maria Hollenhorst, Sarah Leeson, Sean McHenry, Michaela Sea, and Sophia Terenzio. Will Storrexio. Will Storri is the supervising senior producer. And I'm Kai Rizdaul.

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