Fear and hope in the Iranian diaspora as the war continues

continues in the Gulf as well, which is really bearing the brunt of Iran's retaliation. It's not Israel this time. It's the Gulf states that are on the front lines of this. There has been some reporting, and I mentioned this in the introduction, that Israel has been targeting the Iranian police state. This is the body that suppressed protests, killed tens of thousands of Iranians earlier this year. And the hope, if you follow that reporting, is that this may spark a popular uprising in Iran. What do we know about that? And I think there's a lot of question about whether that is a viable strategy. It's correct that Israel is striking at headquarters of the siege, which is the paramilitary militia that has often been used by the Iranian regime to quash protests. They're striking at police stations, at domestic intelligence gathering facilities. There clearly is an aim to undermine. the repressive capacity of the state. But there's only so much you can do bombing from the air. At the end of the day, you're still going to have thousands and thousands of members of the security forces that have weapons and presumably are willing to use them on behalf of the regime. And that's something that's very hard to tackle via air power. And so the idea that Iranians are just going to spontaneously rise up in large numbers and take the streets and somehow... overthrow a regime that still has largely a monopoly on the use of force on the streets of Iran. It's just, it's hard to see how that works in practice. There's also reporting that the CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces to spark an uprising in Iran. Would that answer some of those questions that you have just raised? I think that would raise more questions. And I think even many critics of the Iranian regime, many opposition activists who would like to see this regime gone, are very nervous, if not outright, opposed to that idea. There's a real fear in Iran. There has been for years now that as the regime becomes more embroiled in conflict with Israel and America, as it suffers from increasing economic and political problems at home. that Iran might break up, that you might start to see ethnic insurgencies forming in corners of the country. There's a history of that in Iran. And I think for the United States or anyone else to try to foment such an insurgency, I think it would anger a lot of Iranians who, at the end of the day, are nationalists and don't want to see the country. dismembered. So I think it's a very bad idea if that's what the Americans are planning to pursue. You hinted at this on social media yesterday, saying it's not a binary between regime change and regime survival. It's a spectrum. And there are scenarios in which the regime survives, but as a husk. What is that husk? Well, I think it's a lesson we learned from the wars of the past few years in this region. You can look at Hamas or Hezbollah in Gaza and Lebanon, respectively, which survived but are greatly diminished. You can look at the Bashar al-Assad regime, which made it through a 10-year-plus civil war, but was so weak that once a credible foe ultimately emerged at the end of 2024, it was swept aside in a matter of days. And I think there's a question about whether that happens in Iran.

As well, if this goes on for weeks, you can certainly imagine that its ability to project power in the region will be greatly diminished. Its missile arsenal, its drones, its navy, all of these things are coming under very heavy American and Israeli bombardment. Its ability to control the country might also be diminished, whether through continued strikes on its repressive apparatus or through these. I think somewhat hairbrain schemes to foment insurgencies or arm ethnic minorities. And then remember the backdrop to this is we came into this because of mass protests two months ago. Iran has been suffering through economic crisis for years. The currency is all but worthless. People are struggling to afford basic goods. So even if the regime survives, if it is not able to project power and menace its neighbors anymore, if it is not able to... provide the basic necessities for Iranians because the economic crisis has been so acute. At that point, it's a regime, but in name only, and it's possible to see Iran headed for a scenario of state collapse. Donald Trump talked about this being an opportunity for the people of Iran to take to the streets and take their country back. How is that complicated by the images that were released? from the bombing of an elementary school where apparently 168 children were killed. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has called for an investigation saying that this could about to a war crime. The UN has been saying that the forces who carried out the attack need to investigate as well. How do those images complicate what you're talking about and the possibility of the people of Iran seeing this as an opportunity to rise up? You know, it's hard to generalize about how people feel in a country of 92 million people, a very diverse one. I mean, I've been speaking past few days messaging with, you know, opposition activists or opposition supporters outside of Iran who are in touch with people inside. You speak to some people and they tell you the mood is really souring, that people might have supported the assassination of the Supreme Leader. They might have supported the aims of this war when it first began. after days of heavy bombardment with no end in sight, with horrific scenes like the one that you described. people might be souring on the war. Then you talk to other people who say, actually, the big fear in Iran is that the war will end too soon. And the regime will be left intact. And then once the war ends, it will turn its guns on its own people. We will see a crackdown, you know, perhaps even more fierce than the one that killed thousands of protesters back in January. So I think there are very mixed emotions in Iran right now. And it's complicated by the fact that... No one even really knows at the end of the day what the Americans want to achieve here. What is Donald Trump's ultimate goal? How long is this going to go on? Those are all open questions for all of us. Right now, the Iran Assembly of Experts says that they are close to choosing a new supreme leader. Yesterday, Donald Trump said that many of the people that they had pegged to be possible leaders were already killed. And he said that whoever ends up in charge, in his words,

could be worse than the people that were already killed. What do we know about who may end up leading Iran? I think there are two parallel discussions right now when it comes to leadership. One is who will the assembly of experts, as you say, pick to be the new supreme leader. There have been some reports overnight that they are leaning towards Mosteva Khlamini, the son of the previous Supreme Leader. Those are not. confirmed reports, I should say. If he were to be chosen, it would be a sign of continuity, I think, on the part of the regime. He's someone who was very close to his father. Obviously, it was his father's aid for many years. He has good ties with the Revolutionary Guard. He's not popular at all. And even some supporters of the regime, I think, would not like to see power pass from a father to a son. The thinking would be, you know, we overthrew a monarchy in 1979. Are we really replacing it? with another one. But I think you would choose him to signal. continuity to signal that Iran is not going to change course. But then there's this other question around leadership and how much power the next Supreme Leader will actually have. Will we see in Iran where power shifts away from the Supreme Leader's office, the clerical establishment, where it shifts more to the Revolutionary Guard or to other factions inside the regime? And I think there's a real power struggle going on right now involving people like Ali Larijani. who is a longtime regime apparatchik, Mohammed Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who's the Speaker of Parliament. They are power brokers within the Iranian system. They are not clerics, so they are not candidates to become the supreme leader. But I think they are trying to amass as much power now for themselves as they can when there's this moment of vacuum in the hope of changing how Iran is governed going forward. We're almost out of time. Let me just end with... This is a conflict that is spiraling. You said that in many ways it's Gulf states that are now bearing much of the brunt of Iran's response. You had this spokesperson for the foreign ministry in Qatar saying all the red lines have already been crossed. What sort of response are you expecting from those Gulf states if the attacks on infrastructure, whether that's civilian or military continue? There's a real debate going on in the Gulf right now about how to respond. And there are some officials unexpectedly, I wouldn't have imagined this a few days ago, pushing for direct involvement. Maybe that starts with allowing American warplanes to use bases in the Gulf to carry out attacks on Iran. And then maybe that extends to using their own militaries to carry out strikes on Iran's missiles, Iran's drones. They could frame that as being active defense. So they're not. necessarily getting involved in trying to topple the regime or anything like that. But they could say, we are working to defend ourselves because we have been attacked now thousands of times. And so I think there's a possibility that they will jump into this war, that they will feel like we've been dragged into it against our will. We didn't want it to start in the first place. But now that we're here, we need to get off the sidelines.

It's a lot to wrap your head around. I really appreciate you walking us through what we know at this moment, a moment that keeps changing and changing. Greg, thank you very much. Thanks for having me. Greg Carlstrom is the Middle East correspondent at The Economist. He was in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Your team just added its 67th AI tool and also your 67th security blind spot. The good news? The Vanta agent works like a GRC engineer in the background, finding every app your team uses, scoring the risk, and drafting fixes for you. Vanta is the platform used by over 16,000 fast-moving companies like Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey, who are shaping the future with AI and staying ahead of AI risk. Get started at Vanta.com. Hey there, I'm Kathleen Goldthar, and I have a confession to make. I am a true crime fanatic. I devour books and films and most of all, true crime podcasts. But sometimes, I just want to know more. I want to go deeper. And that's where my podcast, Crime Story, comes in. Every week, I go behind the scenes with the creators of the best in true crime. I chat with the host of Scamanda, Teacher's Pet, Bone Valley. The list goes on. For the insider's scoop, find Crime Story in your podcast app. As I mentioned, Canada has one of the largest Iranian diaspora communities in the world. The current's Shilofagan sat down with three people at the Persian restaurant Ashland in Richmond Hill, a city north of Toronto. We aren't using their full names because of fears for the safety of their family members in Iran.

I'm very sad and I'm fearful because of the attacks on Iran. I think the people there are kind of caught between the brutality of the regime right now and the brutality of the aerial attacks that are destroying. the country's infrastructure and killing civilians. My name is Sid. I am a Canadian who was born in Iran. I still have my sister, my aunts, my uncles, and my cousins who are back there. I had the chance to speak to one of my aunts. The call was dropped three times, but she was able to call back. They are all very afraid. They don't see this ending well for... Iranians in Iran just because of the continuous bombardment. The state of things right now in Iran, I'm nervous. I am uncertain. Not at all sorry. that a dictator is dead. Happy, a dictator is dead. I think he had it coming, but now the future of it has me nervous. My name is Arzu. I am the daughter of two Iranian immigrants who immigrated to Canada in high school. I live there in my middle school years for about five years. I've spoken to extended family over there. They are safe, which is all I can ask for. Mostly conversations are just, are you okay? They sort of fall in line with where I am. hopeful for change, they feel a bit of a burden that they've been carrying for the last 47 years has been relieved. I really think it's important to remember that Iranians who are still in Iran ultimately should have a say in what happens to them, that us expats who are living in the comfort of the West, we can't fully understand what they have endured for the last five decades. And at the very end, all the different factions in Iran need to be able to live together for a peaceful and democratic nation. And this is a very unpopular thing to say, but that includes the current supporters of the regime. I hate the regime, but I have to recognize that there are people who revere the regime and respect the regime. And at the very end, we all have to be able to live together. I'm Sinai Zabokro. I'm singer and songwriter. War is not a good way for achieve freedom. Can I speak Persian? Iran is a

Sina says that Iran has a deep and long history and a very rich culture. You can best know Iranians through poetry, the poetry of poets like Hafez and Sadie. And that's the best way to get to know Iranians. My last wish for everybody here, I guess, for everybody living in the diaspora is to please, please take care of yourselves. This is not a short thing by any means. This is going to be very lengthy, even in just rebuilding. So just take care of yourselves, honestly. Iranians have always done of soul. Sina says that Iranians at their heart are a peaceful and fun-loving people. That the current war-mongering that you see is because of a religion that's been imposed on us. And that at our heart, we believe in the saying that goes back to ancient times, which is think well, speak well, and do well. The current also spoke with Iranians in other parts of this country. Here are some voices from Ontario, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan. There's a darkness was in Iran, and he's already gone. The daylight is coming. We don't want to see war, but these are evil people. I have an uncle who is there. My mother has several uncles and family members there. We're not able to get a hold of anyone. The phones, whether they're not working or people, obviously, they're living through incredibly treacherous and frightening times. We're not able to know who's alive and what's happening there on the ground. We really appreciate Trump for what he's doing for our country. All those years, like they're killing our people. They're killing their own people and they're dangerous for the world, not just for Iranian. They're dangerous for the whole world. Imagine if they have the nuclear bomb, what they're going to do. Just before the attack, the day of attack, my mother-in-law had the doctor appointment. She's just like... took a fall and she just was hoping to go get a surgery. But when attack started, now she has to shelter in home with the little mobility that she has. We had like under one minute a phone call because internet is shut down. And we just heard as simple as saying, like we had a siege base hit at the end of our road and our home shook, but we are alive. I often get asked by my friends here in Canada. How is it possible that your country is attacked and you're optimistic about that? And I have to mention that the people of Iran have tried many venues to create change. But I get messages from my family and my friends in Iran that we're hostages in our own country. We can't even say anything about a change or...

improvement in the system. If you have any kind of widespread, even social activity, not even political, you would end up in prison or worse shot on the street. Those are voices from the Iranian diaspora across Canada. For more CBC podcasts, go to cBC.ca slash podcasts.