With war in the Middle East, what is Carney’s foreign policy?

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As I mentioned in the introduction, Donald Trump, the U.S. President last night, he has been calling on Iran to let ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and last night said that NATO members need to step up as well, that NATO would face, in his words, a very bad future if its allies don't back the United States. What do you make of that and what do you make, being in the region, what do you make of this bottleneck in the strait? It's interesting. I mean, I remember Gulf War II, and we talked about Coalition of the Willing. This is starting to feel like Coalition of the Coerced. You know, Trump demand help from the NATO countries has gone further than help us open the strait. He's also said, they need help. These are his words, knocking out bad actors on the shore. His argument is, you know, you need the oil, so come help us. Or NATO is in big trouble. He wants China's help as well. No country has said yes to this so far. And it's interesting that he looked at China because China doesn't have a problem getting oil through the Strait of Hormuz. India doesn't have a problem getting oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said, The country, you know, aligned with us, want to talk to us, will help them get their oil through. So it is interesting that this tiny patch of the earth is so difficult for the Americans with all their military might to keep open. The Gulf analysts say they were warning about this for a really long time. But they weren't hurt. This country, Saudi, is in the process of moving its oil differently. It has this pipeline that goes from east to west. So it's... taking the oil to it through another way through the Red Sea and out. That will make a difference for the world eventually when that supply gets out there. But in the interim, this is not what Donald Trump referred to as sort of a small excursion or small endeavor. This is a big problem. And so far, it is not getting any better. It's not NATO that's just being threatened. Last week you had the Republican Senator Lindsey Graham warning. In his words, of consequences, if Saudi Arabia doesn't join U.S. strikes against Iran. How is that being received? And what sort of position does that put? Saudi Arabia in? Well, the Saudis don't seem to be biting so far. Like, there's a saying here in Saudi Arabia that the living don't fight the dead. And it was sort of explained to me that you don't get into a fight with people who think they have nothing to lose and will fight to the death. It's just counterproductive. And that in some ways may be how Saudi Arabia sees this decision about whether to sort of get engaged directly in the war. It knows Iran's fighting this war of survival.

And it's interesting, you know, again, the Iranian ambassador is only a few kilometers away. He hasn't been asked to leave. So there's still this effort to try to walk the line delicately. But I do find that I was given a message by an analyst yesterday in the course of an interview. He said, you know, if we ever were to get involved, we would trigger our bilateral relationship with Pakistan. Why is that interesting? Well, Pakistan is a nuclear nation. And so I said, are you saying that on purpose because of the nuclear? And he said, absolutely, it would be a nuclear umbrella. That is a very serious warning to Iran. But right now, Saudi wants no part of fighting. Just before I let you go, the sense... from abroad is that it's unclear exactly what Donald Trump's endgame is as president when it comes to this war and how this war could end. And it feels to a lot of people like things aren't winding down at all. What is your feeling there? What are you reading there in terms of where this could go in the next few days and weeks? It doesn't feel like it's ramping down. Again, this phrase, small endeavor, small excursion. We keep hearing this from the U.S. President. Surely doesn't feel like that on the ground here. I think who blinks, who talks are the things we have to watch for next. Will any of these countries key Donald Trump's call for help in opening the straight? You know, we're really talking about another Gulf War here. Will this coalition of the coerced, if you will, actually develop? You know, and it's interesting. Every day that goes by to his president seems to get angry about this and more aggrieved, saying it. Here's more proof that NATO doesn't help. So how is that going to unfold? Does the U.S. hit the Iranian oil infrastructure? And if it does, what does Iran do? And if we're worried about oil, hold your horses because if Iran hits water. In a region like this, in a country like this, that doesn't have a single river, you know, you don't want to see what happens if water is threatened. So that's what makes us everyone here very nervous. Adrian, good to speak with you, as always. Thank you very much for this. Take care, Matt. Adrian Arsenal is the CBC's chief correspondent. She is in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Hi, I'm Nick co-host of the best one yet. You optimize your workouts, your portfolios, and that rando startup idea that hit you in the middle of the shower. But if you're not hydrated, you're already playing catch-up. So, we keep a stash of liquid IV in our studio. One stick mixed into 16 ounces of water is clinically demonstrated to hydrate faster than water alone with three times the electrolytes of the leading sports drink, plus eight vitamins and nutrients. Whether you're traveling, exercising, or podcasting the best business news ever, Liquid IV makes it easy to stay hydrated wherever life takes you. So shop now at liquid iv.com. Liquid IV hydration. That goes wherever life takes you.

I mean, I think symbolically, I think the focus, no matter what is definitely economic as evidenced by where he's visiting, really looking at countries that have economic opportunity, which, by the way, tend to be global South countries. And they're not necessarily economies that are thriving on the democracy scale either. I mean, that's the sort of hard part of this for all of us to fathom is just the reality that the growing global cells don't tend to have thriving democracy. So this shift away. And I think this diversification strategy, let's say, you know, shifting away from the U.S. is smart, but it's not necessarily with like-minded allies. And it's going to be a slow process. You know, diversification for businesses to switch clients and markets takes a long time. This is a perennial problem for Canada. It's not like the first time we've had this conversation of being overly dependent on the U.S. But I think now we really do have to put our money or our mouth as and go to these places. which, by the way, is not going to materialize in a huge swing. I think if we're lucky to go from, let's say, 85% to the U.S. to 80%, that's progress. But it's really, really going to be a slow shift. A diversification is hard. And I think, you know, Carney's approach is the right one, but it's going to take a long time to materialize. Roland, what is Canada's place in the world under Mark Carney? Well, we've, I mean, part of the shock of this, of the last few years has really been shattering certain assumptions that we had about our place in the sense that we were largely secure, surrounded by three oceans and our neighbor to the south. The idea that although we've always had disputes with the United States over specific trade issues, the assumption that the United States would never use its disproportionate power to harm Canada. The assumption of Canadian sovereignty, the assumption of a world in which countries that Canada's allied to could at least manage the stability of large portions of it. All of those assumptions are out the window. And so quite naturally, a lot of the attention has focused for Canada on attending to our very immediate need, security and economic security. And that has really kind of overshadowed questions about what Canada's larger role in the world is. Now, Carney hinted at some of this in his Davos speech when he talked about the role for middle powers working together. And he did so again visiting the Nordic countries where they reiterated that the Canada and the Nordics will be part of a new middle power coalition. But it's really unclear what the middle power immobilization. will look like when most of those middle powers are just as focused on scrambling to protect their own immediate interests as Canada has been. Do we have a more coherent foreign policy now, do you think? I mean, part of the criticism of Canada under Justin Trudeau, this is the whole idea of Canada is back, but nobody actually knew what that meant and nobody knew what it actually achieved. So, are things more coherent now? I think they are more coherent because the urgency is just that much greater. You know, Canada, for a very long time, for decades after World War II, had a certain amount of luxury in its foreign policy to be able to focus on issues that you might say are not core security and international economic issues. Well, those days are over.

And that kind of urgency does bring clarity. And I think that, to his credit, that Mark Carney has very much focused on those goals. Although... you know, as Bessma suggested, we're going to be dealing with some very complicated partners. And Mark Carney, in his initial reaction to the Iran invasion, showed that he himself has to work on that balance between the principles and the pragmatism that he's talked about. Bessma, just final words to you. I mean, one of the things that people are going back to are the words that Mark Carney delivered at that Davos Beach and elsewhere, we take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. What does that mean in terms of where Canada sees itself in the world and where Canada is in this world? Yeah, well, that's a great question because I think a lot of folks have taken what they wanted out of the Davos speech. You know, some seeing it very much as a pragmatic view of the world, as you said, but also there was this tone of idealism almost there, you know, lamenting the death of the rules-based order. And I think a lot of countries, as we know, the... The speech was very popular. It got a lot of global attention. And partly because everybody got to take something out of it that they really needed to hear at a time when all we're hearing is just, you know, frankly, a lot of global misery. So I understand why people... interpret different ways. But, you know, for Canada, I think we've got, we do have an opportunity here. It's not loud, unlike the previous government, which was a little more on the, more on the rhetoric, less on the action. I do think, as Roland noted, this is a more pragmatic approach that I think comes with more action and thankfully a little less rhetoric. And so I really appreciate the quiet diplomacy of, you know, going around to different capitals and trying to just say we're here. ready to be a partner, a better trading partner. And I think in this world where, you know, relying on trading partners has become so fraught, Canada does have something positive to offer in that sense. Quiet diplomacy in a very loud time, it feels like. We'll speak more about this, certainly, as those times unfold. In the meantime, thank you both for being here this morning. Thank you. Thank you. Best Momomani is a professor of political science at the University of Waterloo and a fellow at the NATO Defense College. Roland Paris is director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.