3/19/26: Energy Infrastructure Burns, Trump Wants $200 Billion For War, Energy Prices Spike, Mearsheimer Exposes US Disaster

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Good morning, everybody. Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal? Another monster show. A lot, a lot, a lot going on. Israel and the U.S. massively escalating the Iran War. Now energy infrastructures throughout the Middle East is on fire. Predictably, the economy is tanking and oil prices are spiking. So we'll get into all of that. John Mearsheimer is joining us this morning to break down his view on what is happening and where things are headed. Tulsi Gabbard testifying yesterday, pretty revealing and not a great... way. Joe Kent. having just resigned just did a bombshell interview with Tucker Carlson, we will bring you all of the highlights of that, some absolutely earth-shattering revelations. So a lot to break down there. And then Professor Pape is going to be back with us to explain where we are now in the escalation trap. So truly a massive show today to get through. That's right. Thank you to everybody who's been supporting us at breaking points.com. As of now, the current plan is that I will be doing an interview with Joe Kent tomorrow. that's tentative and who knows considering now that the Trump administration is potentially trying to indict him whether he's even able to do that. But as I said, that's current plan. And we're going to have a section on locals. We're going to post some suggested questions where you can suggest some if you would like. You can comment there and leave anything that you think you would like to get from Joe Kent. So please go ahead and do so to all of our premium subscribers. And if you want to participate in that and you can, breaking points.com. Thank you again to everybody who's supporting the show at this time for all this incredible growth that you have. given to us your trust in this immense and very, very difficult and dark time, I think, for the entire world. But yeah, Crystal, with that, what do we have? So the U.S. and Israel escalating massively yesterday in the Iran War. We can put these images up on the screen. They struck Israel specifically, but apparently with the U.S.'s cooperation in sent, struck Iran's South Pars gas field. Drop site says this is the world's largest natural gas field. It is a core pillar of Iran's energy support. You can see some of the images of the smoke rising there on your screen. They go on to say the major escalation comes alongside reported impacts on other oil and petrochemical facilities. According to multiple reports, IRGC-linked Tasneem News, issued an urgent warning urging people to immediately leave major oil and gas sites in Saudi, the UAE and Qatar, saying they had become direct and legitimate targets that could be struck within hours. And then they followed up on that threat. striking in particular in Qatar. in Saudi and in Kuwait. Let's go ahead and put the Qatari images up on the screen here. This is Qatar Energy's Roslifan Industrial City to the north of Doha. This is their main site for the production of LNG, which is gas to liquid as well as the largest export terminal for LNG in the world. So that is a massive deal. Let's go ahead and put this next one up on the screen. This is the strike in Riyadh.

you can see here. And according to drop site news, they say four injured in Riyadh after debris from an intercepted ballistic missile fell near a refinery in Saudi Arabia. Four foreign Asian residents were injured, limited material damage. But so you have strikes here in Riyadh, which is pretty extraordinary inside of Saudi Arabia. You also had some strikes inside of Kuwait. And then this is the big one. Let's put this next tear sheet up on the screen from the AP. Saudi Arabia said a drone hit the country's Sanraf Refinery in the port city of Yanbu on the Red Sea. And there is a reason why I say this one is extremely significant. You know, we've been following Rory Johnson, oil and gas analyst. Arno Bertrand has also been talking about how significant this is as well. If you can put this map up on the screen, you can see. So on one side, we have the Strait of Formuz, which of course Iran has locked down. So that's one way to ship oil out of the region. On the other side, you have the Red Sea where so far the Houthis have not engaged. And so Saudi has been shipping oil in this east-west pipeline to the Red Sea so that they can continue to export some proportion of the oil there. And now that area, that port and right where that pipeline is, that has been struck as well. Yeah. Last thing, Sagar, before I get your reaction here, because Rory Johnson was tweeting about this, so he was warning this is a really big deal when the reports were unconfirmed. Now this Saudi Ministry of Defense, he says, now confirming that one ballistic missiles were launched at the port of Yanbu, which were intercepted. A drone has fallen on an oil refinery in Yanbu, knew the lack of denial was weird, not great that Iran is turned. turning its attention to the Red Sea. So we don't have full information about the extent of the damage. But if you're looking at cutting off both of those pathways to export oil from the region, this is an earth-shattering move. Right, exactly. For everybody who took a look at the map, the Red Sea, where Saudi Arabia, the East-West pipeline, is able with that pipeline to get about 70 to 80% to 80% of the oil that previously would go through the Straits of Hormuz. So 70-80%, by the way, is still a catastrophe for global oil supply. But 70 to 80... is a lot better than zero. So the striking of that refinery is a message. Not only are we going to be able to try and target the pipeline, the refineries, and some of the loading to be able to get all of that out. Now, don't forget, this was an Iranian state action. This was not yet the Houthis, who also have the ability with Yemen to be able to close and choke off the Red Sea, which is what would be a genuine catastrophe for oil. Returning to LNG, Rass-Lafan is 20% of global LNG. Even more important about Roslifan is actually the amount of LNG and gas that it provides to Europe and to Asia. Already, European markets are panicking as of this morning. 25% increase in natural gas. I saw a British analyst who are predicting genuine catastrophe for their economy. 2,500 pounds they're looking at in terms of their heating bills next winter. If things continue to go on the track that they are, and remember, they're not a rich country, right? Their GDP per capita is like 33,000. So that would be a disaster for the average British household.

Pakistan gets the vast majority of its LNG from Qatar. You're going to see rolling blackouts in that country if you continue to see this. The Rastafan facility has had, quote, extensive damage, according to the Qatari authorities. Remember, I used to live in Doha. I drove past Rassafan up a dozen. It's shocking to see the images like this because I know not only the amount of Americans, the amount of investment that went into that. I mean, we're talking about tens of billions. I think the current price tag on Rasslopan was $70 billion, and it went up. like this in flames, not to mention that they had an evacuation. Qatar has declared force majeure on a ton of its contracts out until April. Taiwan is the number three recipient of Katari-LNG. Qatar also, let's not forget, that Rasupon and the facilities around it produced about 30% of global helium supply, critical to chips manufacturing. The Taiwanese economy, this is earth-shattering. I mean, for all the- I saw China put on a statement say, hey, your energy problems will be over if we just have a peaceful reunification. I also would be remiss if I didn't just talk about the climate situation here. What do you think the entire, all of Asia is doing right now? Burning coal. They're saying, okay, well, you've got to have electricity. So what are you going to do? They are going to burn more coal as a result of this energy crisis than probably at any time in the last 20 years. That's what they're currently turning towards. And even with that, we are predicting a massive spike. So here in the United States, we're largely insulated from this for now. We have produced a ton of our own LNG. This is part of the reason for those who are wondering why there is a discrepancy between Brent Oil prices and West Texas. oil prices. So West Texas oil is not yet at 100 a barrel. Brent is currently trading around like $115 per barrel. I've had to learn a little bit about the differences. But I don't think we can adequately explain the consequences of taking this Katari facility and the Red Sea action together to show that genuine oil energy catastrophe is here. It's here. Now it's only a question of, can we roll... any of the SPAC. And considering the initial reaction of the President of the United States and the Israeli authorities, I am not optimistic to say the least. Well, and that Iran matches their energy, you know? They're like, okay, you want to escalate. Game on. This is our whole goal is to make you suffer and bet that we can withstand more pain than you can. I just want to read Arnaud's analysis here just to underscore the severity of what we are waking up to this morning. He said yesterday, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if infrastructure like this, and he's talking about the Qatari facility specifically, gets blown up, as of this moment, it will take at least a decade to recover from this war.

Already, he's saying, with what's already been done. It will take a decade to recover. And the truth is the world's energy picture is probably changed forever. This single facility produced roughly 20% of global LNG supply, and as of 2011, had taken $70 billion to build. What makes this even worse is that Iran's strike on this was retaliation after Israel attacked their South Pars gas field, which draws from the same natural gas reservoir, which is the world's largest. reservoir by far. It's about the size of Qatar itself. Heck, on the list of the 25 largest natural gas fields, this single reservoir holds roughly 40% of their combined recoverable reserves. It is nearly six times bigger than the second biggest field in the world. Unlike many of the others on the list, it's only at 10% depletion, meaning 90% of the gas is still there, which means that... Probably for many years, a huge share of the gas from the world's largest reservoir simply will not be extractable as infrastructure on both sides, Qatar's and Iran's, has now been blown up from a global energy supply perspective. We are deep into worst-case scenario. So that is from Arnaud, to your point about the president and the Israelis. So immediately we get the Axios reports. Let's put this up on the screen because, you know, the question is, Did was Trump down with this, right? Was this just the Israelis freelancing? Was this Trump's idea? Was this Israel's idea? Did they work in concert? I mean, you always have to assume they're working in concert hand and glove. But in any case, that was what was giving to axios here. Israel strikes a raw natural gas facility in coordination with the U.S. The Israelis said basically, yeah, we executed, but we're sending an American message that was their language that you have to reopen these straight of hormones or else we are going to continue to decimate your domestic energy supply. So they said explicitly the Israeli officials who spoke to, Brock revealed that the strike was coordinated with and approved by the Trump administration and a U.S. defense official confirmed that as well. So then let's put A2B up on the screen here. So now you have this. wild post from Donald Trump, which seems to be a reaction to the fact of him realizing like, oh shit, this thing is escalating out of control and the impact on the economy is going to be devastating. So he says, Israel. out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gasfield in Iran. So here he's shifting the blame to Israel that they lashed out. He says a relatively small section of the hole has been hit. The U.S. knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. He's talking about Qatar because Qatar was the first to get hit in response. Unfortunately, Iran did not know. this or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, an unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LNG gas facility. In all caps,

No more attacks will be made by Israel pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent in this case, Qatar, in which instance the United States of America with or without the help or consent of Israel will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars gas field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long-term implications that it will have on the future of Iran. If Qatar's LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter saga. Your thoughts on that. This is the closest evidence that we have right now of a person who is genuinely spiraling. This is an actual crisis because the current... I mean, look, somebody's lying, right? So the U.S. officials who talked to Axios, the Wall Street Journal, and the Pentagon and everybody else said that they not only knew... of the strike, they basically asked Israel to do it, or were okay with it, if they had advanced knowledge, which according to them they did, it's pretty obvious why this happened, because the world freaked out as a result. The Qataris were putting out statements obviously at the beginning. This is the thing about Qatar. They expelled those Iranian diplomats. Do you know who the first person they blamed was? Israel. They were like, Israel has unleashed this. They have struck the South Bar's Gasfield. We know that we're going to get struck as a result of this, and now they have brought hell upon the region. descending it all into chaos, destroying our economy, destroying Iranian infrastructure, and basically leading us farther up the escalation spiral. It's very obvious, and this is what I've talked about with magical thinking. The way that presidents like this who are in a bunker mentality, they are very susceptible to magical thinking of miracle strikes, LBJ, this is the classic LBJ model for anybody who's ever read any history. Sir, if we just take out this Viet Cong facility, if we just take out this North Vietnamese corridor where the weapons go, then the entire war will end. He goes, okay, let's do it. Roll in thunder, right? We're going to go, we're going to do this massive operation, and that is going to break the back of the North Vietnamese and of the Viet Cong, and then they'll finally surrender. And what ends up always happening is that deepens the existentialism on the other side. They always find a way around it, and then what happens? We're deeper into the war. That's exactly what happened with this strike. At least in that instance, it was our own military and intelligence that was pushing. I mean, according to not just Joe Kent, we'll get to that later in the show, but Marco Rubio and others, I mean, It is the Israelis who are pushing this direction. I mean, think about how stupid, how absolutely insanely stupid this action by the Israelis, I mean, from a U.S. perspective, from their perspective, it's great. You know, they want the chaos. They're down for all of it. But from our perspective and from a global perspective, like the developing countries around the world, they're going to be the ones who are already suffering the most. It's completely insane. Iran's whole thing. is to make us pay economically. The economic warfare is the whole point. They're not shy about it. They explain it quite clearly. We need you to feel pain. We need you to understand that we have a chokehold on the global economy. We have a chokehold on these Gulf Arab states. We can destroy their economy. We probably already have destroyed their countries in large part because nobody's going to be going back to Dubai and thinking the same of it after all that has happened. So you play right into their hands. Yes.

It's going to hurt them that this, you know, that the South Parsfield was damaged. That is going to hurt Iran, no doubt about it. Who do you think is willing to take more pain? The country that is in an existential battle for its life or Americans who don't even want this war to begin with? Who do you think is going to be able to accept more pain? So you have given them the green light. Who can really justifiably complain about Iran striking this oil infrastructure now throughout the region? Of course, Western countries will do so, completely ignoring who started this war, completely ignoring who ignited this round of escalation. But everybody who is looking at this knows that it is completely reasonable response. And it was telegraphed in advance. It was utterly, utterly predictable. You knew that when you took this step up the escalation ladder, how they would respond. And so now, you know, you have markets that are falling. You have the oil price continuing to go up. And you have really opened Pandora's box here. We have more reporting about, you know, what Trump thought about this in advance, blah, blah, blah. You can put A3 up on the screen. The Wall Street Journal has similar report from Barack Ravid saying he wants no more strikes on Iranian energy sites after Israel's Wednesday attack. But... Trump did know about the Israeli strike on South Pars in advance, supported it as a message to Tehran over its block of the Strait of Hormuz. President believes Iran got the message, lappable, and is now against attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, but Trump could once again be open to targeting more Iranian energy facilities depending on Tehran's future actions in the strategic waterway. So, yeah, so he is scrambling. is concerned about putting boots on the ground. but also has this conundrum of the Strais of Hormuz, which are not going to be reopened without a major fight. It's going to take more than, you know, sending a message through another bombing campaign for that to go in your direction. Someone convinced him, oh, well, this will send him a message. Then they'll really buckle. Then they're going to be able to negotiate with you. Then Steve Witkoff will have his text messages answered or whatever. And so they go forward with this. And of course, it only leads to more escalation. Can put A6 up on the screen because this speaks to, you know, how he's thinking about this conflict right now. Apparently, there's a consideration of sending Americans in to seize nuclear material, something we had talked about before, hasn't made up his mind on that yet, whether he wants to send American forces into Iran to seize that nuclear material. We can also, you know, look to there as a report that there are more Marines, some 5,000 more Marines that are being...

sent to the region as well. They're evaluating options about, you know, Karg Island, could we seize that, what could we do to be able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? The UK isn't sending any ships, but they are sending some military advisors to help game out what could possibly be done here. None of these are easy answers, Saga, whatsoever. None of these things would be easy to accomplish, and all of them would lead to American service members being put at grave, grave risk and in massive numbers. A good friend of mine asked me. yesterday said what's the best case scenario and I said the best case scenario is that we leave today which would mean several things number one The Iranian regime remains totally intact with a bloodlust and a desire to become North Korea yesterday. As in, we will never make a deal with the United States. We don't care about economic sanctions. If our population must be emiserated, starved, and famine, so be it. We will destroy or we will have the capacity to establish a credible deterrent to hit the continental United States. And that is all in. That's all we can possibly do to guarantee their security. And there is no point in negotiating. with these people, that's the best case scenario. Yeah. Because they would... maybe temporarily stop, and in the interim, some oil would flow. Katari, LNG, Rastafon, God only knows how much time it's going to take to rebuild that facility to get the months of oil and LNG and helium and fertilizer, the backlog that's already been created, back to normal. But we could survive it. We could all survive it. We're a very rich country. We'll be able to support it. The third world, everybody's going to suffer as a result. And of course, there's all the missile stockpiles, interceptors, et cetera. That's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario, we're not even close there. But you can see it, and we're all starting to see it. Qatar, LNG, closure of the Red Sea, oil at $2 to $300 a barrel, a broad export ban here in the United States, lines for even and odd numbers like the boomers had to live through during the OPEC crisis. That's really what it's going to look like, $8 a gallon, $7, $8 a gallon, $10 a gallon in California, no missile interceptors, boots on the ground, boys coming back home in coffins. And by the way, the problem is, is that the more of a crisis point that we reach for the U.S. economy, that means the more of an extreme that the president and his team will reach for. Because the amount of courage it would take at this point, courage cowardice, you could call it whatever you want, but I think courage to say, we're done here. We're done. And yes, Trump made this of his own making, but I promise you if he finally hands this, I will give one of those. Thank you, you know, the most, I'll go on Fox News and say this is the most courageous decision. And it would be true. Yeah, I'll do it. I wouldn't really mean most of it, but like, I would say it, Joe, fluff his own ego and to provide the support and all that that they would need. But that is what it would take. And we, from, look,

We're going to talk about Jo Can. Look, it would be the end of his presidency if he did that. And it is also the end of his presidency if he continues. Exactly. I mean, that's the problem. That's where it is. Right. So you might as well fight. That's the logic. That's the logic. You might as well fight. This is the gambler at the table. I'm already down. I'm in the hole. You know, my house is going to be taken. I have to put it all in the line. That's the mentality that exists now. And let's say, too, Sager, let's say, let's say that he does that. Let's say he walks away. you know even gives the iranian some kind of concession or i will do a little sanctions reliever something right so that they stop as well yeah What is going to stop Israel? Nothing. Nothing. And you're so right, and this is something we've been warning about, and we're not the only ones, that the logic for Iran is to pursue a nuclear weapon now. You know, and you've taken out the guy, you killed the Ayatollah, who issued the Fadu, and said, we're not going to do this. That guy is gone. The old, cautious man. So can I, let me expound on that. So, for example, everyone said, oh, well, they never closed the straight before. Because of the Ayatola! Everything you were told about the Ayatollah was a lie. He was a cautious, dottering old man. He couldn't commit fully to the nuke, and he couldn't commit fully to peace. He had to try and do some... Look, he's old. He was 89, right? And we all know somebody like that. They're literally dottering. Well, guess what? He's dead now. We created him in a martyr. His son literally has got scars on his face and is hiding in a bunker. The IRGC people, we have killed every, you know, Ali Larijani. We just killed him. Apparently, he was... Look, he was an asshole. Yeah, he definitely wanted to... kill a lot of people, definitely hated America, highly educated. You know, his daughter was a professor, I think down at George. At Emory University. At Emory University. Until recently, they made a leave, but yeah. But my point is just that's who what we, that was one side of the ledger. Guess what? He's dead. So who do you have left? At every turn, the modern IRGC has said, we cannot negotiate with these people in good faith. And Rohani, all of these people, they said, no, we can. Let's avoid the war. And remember, the Ayatollah backed that decision. He said, well, let's do diplomacy. Let's do this. Even though they would still chant death to America, great state and all. That's over. It's over. The Kim logic. The Kim family's logic is the only logic in the world that makes any sense. And like I said, that's the best case scenario. That's why we should never have done this in the first place. So now. Let's say Trump walks away. Let's say he tacos, he does it, he manages to excrucate for the moment. Well, guess what's going to happen down the road? Israel's going to come back and they're going to say, oh, they're building on nuclear water. What are you going to do? And this is, you know, this is what we mourned about with the 12-day war, wherever. Oh, this was so great. And we got in, we got out. And you guys were such haters and you didn't understand that, you know, the glory of our president, et cetera, et cetera. What did we warn? And again, not just us, right? This was many, many people who could see the writing on the wall. You have now opened up Pandora's box. And it is almost inevitable that we end up back in a hot war with Iran.

And that is exactly, exactly where we are. And now, yeah, I mean, it's hard to see. how he walks away. It's hard to see how this end. The off ramps are being murdered by the Israelis with the assent. Again, I always want to put blame where it belongs with the assent of Trump. It's not like he objects to any of this. He's happy to see, you know, these assassinations, happy to see the escalation, happy to greenlight it. So the off ramps are literally being murdered. The Iranians have been very clear. We are going to make you pay. And you are going to come to us. and beg for mercy. And you are going to accept our terms of your defeat. That has been their message. And now, where do we go next? I mean, very likely boots on the ground. I think, you know, he's reluctant to do it. But I think that's probably what's going to happen next. And you're going to have a lot more dead service members, God forbid. And, you know, we're going to continue to have oil prices go up. The global economy crash. I mean, the bottom is, it is truly bottomless how bad things could ultimately get here.

I'm Emily Oster. I'm an economist and data expert. And I'm Perry Wilson. I'm a medical doctor. And this is our new podcast, Wellness Actually. Because you're getting a staggering amount of health and wellness information nowadays, and some of it is awesome. And some of it is, well, actually bullshit. Fortunately, we're both people who know how to read studies, parse data, and can tell you what's worth trying out and what you can safely ignore. Each episode, we tackle the health news of the week and then take a deeper dive into a misunderstood health and wellness topic like... What's the deal with peptide? What's the deal with GLP-1s? What's the deal with creatine? What's the deal with cupping? What's the deal with sleep? So join us for a weekly dose of sanity. It might actually be just with the doctor. Or the economist. Ordered. Listen to Wellness Actually on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Bill, why is my eye twitching? Does this mean I'm in perimenopause? Maybe I have adult ADHD. I need to look this up. Where's my phone? Juliana, your phone is hot to the touch. I think it's asking you for a break. You know what? Maybe I should just ask chat GPT. Or maybe we can ask an actual human. Yes, like a couple sex therapist. Whoa, that escalated quickly, but... Okay. Because I have questions. We have questions. And I bet everyone has questions. Like, is it normal to sleep in separate bedrooms? We do that. How about this one? Is bribing your kids bad parenting or just negotiating? Oh, and I still do need to know why was my poop green that one time? Hypothetically, right? Okay, well, instead of letting the internet guess, we've got actual people answering these exact questions. And laughing with us has got to be better than spending three hours down a rabbit hole online. Listen to Bill and Juliana. The podcast. On the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts.

In 2015, teenager Joy Morgan discovered strangely compelling YouTube sermons from the religious group Israel United in Christ, or IUIC. Her initial curiosity developed into devotion. She distanced herself from friends and family, embraced new identity, immersed herself in the IUIC, and believed she'd found the truth. IUIC is the best family that I've ever had. In fact, she had found what many called a cult. And on Boxing Day 2018, Joy disappeared forever. In the new six-part investigative podcast, The Missing Sister, Charlie Brinkhurst Cuff and Freiturn, explore Joy's story, the family she left, and the religious group she found. You know when you get out of freedom, I don't want to be here. I want to get out. I want to go ahead now. It's a story about truth, lies, a young woman yearning to belong and a family still waiting for answers. All episodes available now to binge. Listen to The Missing Sister on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's go ahead and move on to this next part because it's, you know, the economic damage is already showing up. And it's not like the U.S. economy was in a great spot to begin with, guys. Let's put a eight up on the screen. So something Trump has been desperately wanting is for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Well, guess what? We just had a hot inflation report come in. Now you have oil prices skyrocketing. That is going to not only increase prices at the pump, it's going to increase all prices because... That is the way our economy runs on fossil fuels and the reverberating effects. We got a little taste of that during COVID, so it's not too hard to imagine where we are headed with all of this. Not to mention, and again, this is all before we even started this war, Jerome Powell says we effectively have no job creation. None. Let's go ahead and take a listen to what he had to say there. But the thing that I think... good number of people on the committee are concerned about is just the very, very low level of job creation. If you adjust what has been the trend job creation over the past, let's say, six months, if you adjust that for what we think, our staff thinks, is the overstatement due to overcounting, effectively there's zero net job creation in the private sector. But actually, that looks like that's about what the economy needs in terms of dealing with very, very low. non-existent really growth in the labor force which of course we've never had in our in our history so you've got a sort of a zero employment growth equilibrium now that's that's balance okay but you know I would say it does have a feel of downside risk and it's not kind of a really comfortable balance So zero net job creation in the private sector. Zero. This is a literal nightmare because this is literally the 1970s. Oil shock. Yeah, this is stagflation. High inflation, high unemployment, oil energy shock. We lived through it. Take a look at the mortgage rates. Continue to take up. Take a look at the bond. The yields, I mean, they're climbing as of this morning. And then...

Let's talk about deficit spending. Now, you know, me, I'm not a deficit hawk or anything like that, but I do believe in efficient allocation of resources. Let's go ahead and put A10 up here on the screen. Last story from our great friend Jeff Stein for the Washington Post before he begins his new job over at notice. Look at this, guys. The Pentagon has now asked the White House today for a more than $200 billion supplemental for the Iran War. Some White House states think Congress won't support because it is so big. It will tee up a giant battle in Congress. Let me remind everyone. that the way that they currently think they'd have to pass this is through reconciliation. To do reconciliation, you have to be revenue neutral. To be revenue neutral, you have to cut. $200 billion. That means something, $200 billion. And they've already cut this thing to the bone of discretionary spending of what they've been able to, Medicaid, SNAP, et cetera. Well, how are you going to find $200 billion? Also, for all the Doge bros who have come up to me now over the last year and told me that I'm being unfair to Doge, even by Doge's own math. by Doge math, which is like bullshit math. We all know. Which is fake, yeah. Doge's most maximal math. How much you think that they're claiming to save? 150. 215 billion. So we would net net 15. And that is if you take their in top, all of their claims. Everything that they ever said. You can go to doge.gov right now and you can look at it. 215 billion. So we would net 15 billion after you pass this. Now, here's the, now I want to prepare everybody for the tag and they're going to specifically come after people like me. They're going to say, you've been bitching and moaning about interceptor stockpiles. This is what this bill is about. Because it is, the vast majority of the spending would be to replace many of the munitions that we've just sent. And you know what my logic would be? I am with you 100%. Let's end the war with Iran and then we'll do that. And when we do that, we will make sure that there is specific language that this will not be used for a war of choice, for a regime. That it will be congressionally authorized and that we will be an established credible defense for the United States and for its allies in a war where the nation itself has been bought into the war and we agree that this is a proper use of our resources. But in the interim, We will not be gaslit that we need a ton more munitions to continue the war with Iran. The war in Iran is a drain on the munitions. And we're definitely not going to be paying Lockheed and Raytheon top dollar, you know, beyond top dollar. Because what? You think they're not going to gouge the shit out of you whenever they need, when you need those weapons the most? No, no, no, no, no. We're not playing this game because this is what they did with Iraq. We got into a quagmire. By the way, you know, this is two years of spending in Iraq and Afghanistan. I remember those numbers. The total, the total amount that we spent on the Afghan National Security Forces was 100 billion. I sat here, how many times I sit here and preach against Ukraine? This is more than Ukraine. This is not... Total Ukraine is 180. This is not funding for a little excursion, as Trump describes it. This is funding for a long...

war. So you are being lied to, not that you're surprised at this point, but when Trump's, oh, we already destroyed them, we can declare victory at any point. And in fact, we've already won. Lies, lies. Don't listen to what they say. Look at the actions. Look at the budget request. 200 billion. To your point about the Interceptors, the Pentagon budget is already a trillion dollars. Pass an audit and find some money if you need to replace your munitions. Like, this is insane. Think of all the good that could be done with that money. And instead, we want... to take this $200 billion so that we can, what, bomb more elementary schools and continue to sustain in a legal war that is plunging us into deep economic crisis and potential World War III, that's what we're going to spend our precious tax dollars on. It's absolutely sickening. And you know the talking points that will come out too. You've got to support the troops. And if you don't, you're unpatriotic, blah, blah, blah. So just wait. But in terms of a political reckoning, can you imagine anything that will be more disgusting to the American people than $200 billion. And by the way, we're going to pay for it, not by raising taxes on the rich or the contractors who are more profiteering, like none of that. It's going to come from your health care. It's going to be levied at the gas pump when you pay more. That's who is actually going to pay and suffer. There's people in this country who already pay and suffer the most. And those are also the ones who are sent over. you know, into the meat grinder to fight the guy. It's already starting. Or put on some ship that's on fire and the toilets don't work. Exactly. Let me read you a quote from this morning while we're recording this Pentagon is doing a press conference. Secretary Pete Hegseth, my 13-year-old son popped in my office last night while I was editing these remarks. He asked about the war and the families I met at Dover. I looked at him and I said, they died for you, son, so your generation doesn't have to deal with a nuclear Iran. You could copy and paste that out of what I used to hear in 2003 and in 2004 in Bush. country. We're back. We are back. That's what they're going to do. Oh, you got to support the troops. You got to support the war. I also just have to say, let us not forget, we had a nuclear deal with Iran that they were following that the first Trump administration took and tore up. We had new negotiations with the Iranians where they were willing to give even more concessions than they had originally given in those negotiations. And guess what we did after we got that offer diplomatically from them at the table? We bombed them and murdered their leadership. So Pete Hegseth can kindly shut the fuck up with your lies and your deceit. And you know what's even worse? is that this, you know what else he said? Today will be the largest strike on Iran to date. It just, this is the trap. We're going to talk about this with Professor Paid because he literally wrote the book on it, but it's like, you know, and nobody like, I don't, people are like, oh, you must be loving. This is a nightmare. This is a literal nightmare. Yeah, we're a rich country. We're going to be okay. But everybody else?

And now the people who have to fight in this war, the Pentagon said yesterday that they're considering thousands of troops to be sent to the Middle East. There's already 50,000. There's 2,500 on their way there. You and I could easily see some cockamamie scheme about, you know, oh, we've got to seize the shoreline. And then once you seize the shoreline, you've got to seize the rear if those guys are going to be attacked. I mean... Do we even know the last amphibious assault the United States did under fire? It was the Korean War. It's been since then Douglas MacArthur that anything like that has happened. Just think about it. Like that's the territory that we're currently, that's the territory that's currently that we're considering and that we shouldn't even have to consider it. We should just get. out. $200 billion also is nothing compared to what will happen if this has to continue on. We spent, I don't even know, what, $6 trillion in Iraq, a trillion or so in Afghanistan. So $200 billion, that's just a down payment. Not even a down payment. It's a 2% down payment on what we could be looking at in the future.

I'm Emily Oster. I'm an economist and data expert. And I'm Perry Wilson. I'm a medical doctor. And this is our new podcast, Wellness Actually. Because you're getting a staggering amount of health and wellness information nowadays, and some of it is awesome. And some of it is, well, actually, bullshit. Fortunately, we're both people who know how to read studies, parse data, and can tell you what's worth trying out and what you can safely ignore. Each episode, we tackle the health news of the week and then take a deeper dive into a misunderstood health and wellness topic like... What's the deal with peptide? What's the deal with GLP-1s? What's the deal with creatine? What's the deal with cupping? What's the deal with sleep? So join us for a weekly dose of sanity. It might actually be just with the doctor. Or the economist. Ordered. Listen to Wellness Actually on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Bill, why is my eye twitching? Does this mean I'm in perimenopause? Maybe I have adult ADHD. I need to look this up. Where's my phone? Juliana, your phone is hot to the touch. I think it's asking you for a break. You know what? Maybe I should just ask chat GPT. Or maybe we can ask an actual human. Yes, like a couple sex therapist. Whoa, that escalated quickly, but... Okay. Because I have questions. We have questions. And I bet everyone has questions. Like, is it normal to sleep in separate bedrooms? We do that. How about this one? Is bribing your kids bad parenting or just negotiating? Oh, and I still do need to know why was my poop green that one time? Hypothetically, right? Okay, well, instead of letting the internet guess, we've got actual people answering these exact questions. And laughing with us has got to be better than spending three hours down a rabbit hole online. Listen to Bill and Juliana. The podcast. On the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts.

In 2015, teenager Joy Morgan discovered strangely compelling YouTube sermons from the religious group Israel United in Christ, or IUIC. Her initial curiosity developed into devotion. She distanced herself from friends and family, embraced new identity, immersed herself in the IUIC, and believed she'd found the truth. IUIC is the best family that I've ever had. In fact, she had found what many called a cult. And on Boxing Day 2018, Joy disappeared forever. In the new six-part investigative podcast, The Missing Sister, Charlie Brinkhurst Cuff and Freiturn, explore Joy's story, the family she left, and the religious group she found. You know when you get out of freedom, I don't want to be here. I want to get out. I want to go ahead now. It's a story about truth, lies, a young woman yearning to belong and a family still waiting for answers. All episodes available now to binge. Listen to The Missing Sister on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, let's get to oil. You know, it's a disaster. What else can we say already? You can start to see a lot of the oil markets are really beginning to wake up to what is happening. So let's start first with what's happening here at home. Very viral clip of a woman being interviewed. Who is it? Jonathan Allen over at NBC News. Ask the three-time Trump voter at the pump what she thinks about him. Let's take a listen. If you could say something to President Trump and he was going to hear you right now, what would it be? You're a worthless pile of shit. And you voted for him how many times? Three times. That was my bad. Apparently, I'm an idiot. So that's the sentiment. Pennsylvania, is that an important state? I forget. I got to go back and check my notes on that one. Anyone remember? Can anyone tell me about Pennsylvania? Anyone want to know the price of gas today in Pennsylvania? 382 a gallon. National average right now is $388. It will be $4 a gallon probably by the end of the week. Diesel is around $5 a gallon right now. That's just here in the U.S. Again, as I said, globally, Japan, many other countries far surpassed already. $4 a gallon. Let's continue then for the price of oil. B2, guys. Let's go ahead and put that one up there on the screen. The current West Texas crude oil price is about... $95 per barrel. And then the Brent oil price is about $106 a barrel as of this morning. It's actually down a little bit from where it was. Jumping, I think, to an 11-year high is what somebody was saying here in some of the oil analysis. But what we are watching is basically happen is that oil... Sword, past $110 has come down a little bit. This is the Brent Oil price. Then the West Texas one continues to hover right around $100 per barrel. What is also happening is that gas prices, European gas prices, this morning went up to at least 25 to 30 percent in their spike. So that will be a...

disaster for a lot of the European economies. And this is just the beginning. Because remember, they were very reliant on Russian gas. Now they're actually trying to buy Russian gas as a result, you know, through a pipeline. Then most of what they did is they booked long-term contracts with Qatar. Now the entire Katari facility is offline. God only knows how long. You know, that's going to continue in the extensive damage that's been suffered. Then you combine what we talked about earlier with the potential strikes in the Red Sea. And then I also think, you know, we have to really figure here on the notion of like global energy markets itself. Because we're all, we're about two weeks from export band conversation. And I've been, you know, looking into the Biden administration floated it. And a lot of Americans may fairly say, hey, we are an export of oil. Why don't we just not export it? Why don't we just keep it all here? From what I have learned, reading and talking to a lot of the oil experts, even though I would theoretically support an idea like that, you basically don't want to do it because of refinery capacity. So what I've learned is that the oil market, because it was set up to be truly global, is that even though the United States is a net exporter of oil, we are not fully capable of refining all of the oil that we produce. Various different refineries and various different parts of the region are set up for very specific types of oil. And redoing that would take a long time. It would be incredibly difficult. It would basically break the oil market as we know it. You don't really want to do it unless you are in a World War II, like catastrophic total war type of situation. To do it would basically destroy the current global commodities market. it would undermine U.S. oil companies, not that I care that much about U.S. oil companies, but more importantly, it would put immense strain. You would effectively have to nationalize the oil industry at that point with an export ban, try and get some private partnership. And in the interim, the prices would just go sky high because of refinery capacity could have total shortages. I think we're not that far away from an oil export ban. So especially in the short term, doesn't really solve the problem because the refineries here are already pretty much maxed out with regard. to domestic crude, our allies would be totally fucked throughout the world, Europe, Asia, et cetera. So, you know, in terms of their appetite to, right now, it's not like they're like super excited about this war, but they're not overtly, like, you have to stop this and we're, you know, and doing whatever they can to get us to stop. If we did an export ban, then you would very quickly get to that place because they would be so screwed. Domestically, like I said, it doesn't really solve the problem because you don't have the refinery capacity. So prices will continue to go up here. In terms of our domestic oil production, you know, Trump, he was trying to say drill baby drill the other day, and instead he said, dig we must. But anyway, dig we must is his policy. Well, how motivated do you think oil companies are going to be to... dig when they have this massive constraint on their ability to export this oil capacity. So they're going to cut back on their, you know, their drilling and their, you know, their extraction activities. So, yeah, then I guess the next move is you nationalize them. Okay. I'd be okay with that. But so that you, you know, you get to force them and compel them. But, I mean, we're just in, we're in wild territory there. And then again, to the core point, it creates a whole bunch of problems in the world.

and does not really solve the problem here. But I think you're right that we, I'm sure those conversations are already happening in the White House. There's no doubt about it. And Trump has already taken some actions recognizing, you know, what a big problem this is for him. We can put B4 up on the screen. So he's issuing some waivers for the Jay Jones Act. This is a little bit esoteric. We talked about it here before. But basically the idea of the Jay Jones Act is you have to use U.S. ships. in order to, you know, in order to... Entry U.S. transit. Exactly. Yeah, entry U.S. transit. And so this was meant to bolster the U.S. shipbuilding, domestic shipbuilding capacity. It hasn't really worked, but it still has a lot of supporters in Congress, and it is the way things are set up. So they are issuing these waivers specifically for, they say vital resource like oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and coal to flow freely to U.S. ports for 60 days. Again, the analysis I saw saga is this is probably not going to be. make that much of a difference because we just don't even have that many of these U.S. ships that could do this work. And foreign flag. It's complicated, but basically, look, the Jay Jones Act is one of those wonk things that people like Ezra Klein and them involved and obsessed with for like 10 years. And I sympathize. I actually do get it. It's one of the only areas of protectionism where I was like... Yeah, it doesn't really make sense. Well, it hasn't really worked just because our shipbuilding is so much more expensive than, like, you know, China. And it really screws over California and Hawaii, in particular, Hawaii especially, they get destroyed by the Jay Jones Act. But the point... beyond, like above, is we are grasping its draws. You want to know what the Secretary of the Treasury said just this morning? They are floating, lifting sanctions on Iranian oil that is currently at sea, just to pump more oil into the system. So the country, imagine you're at war with Nazi Germany, all right? The Nazis have a lot of oil. The Nazis have oil at sea. You're so worried about energy prices. You're like, you know what we're going to do? We're going to let, who's in neutral country, Switzerland, something like that. We're going to let say Switzerland, go ahead and just buy. That is how screwed the oil market is. That's how bad things are. Also, for the Kremlin, just so everybody understands, I think India yesterday just purchased like $30 million barrels of oil from Russia, which was all just floating at sea. They are floating more oil sanctions relief. The Kremlin is rubbing their hands together like that they haven't made this much money in years. You already have the geopolitical situation on the continent changing the Belgian prime minister being like, listen, maybe we've got to normalize relations with Russia. I don't really see a way around it. So, you know, for all the neocons who cared so much about Ukraine, congratulations, you just bought the Russians five, six more years on the front to be able to pay all the people who are currently fighting. That's kind of a disaster, allegedly. We also should not rule out. the immense variance that's happening in the oil market. So, for example, let's put B5 up here on the screen. This was a very, this is one of these analysts who I follow. He said the current spot price for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel on the West Coast appear unhinged at $147 a barrel, $162 a barrel, and $186 a barrel until one considers.

that refiners in China, India, Japan, and South Korea face physical crude costs that top 150 to 155. Basically, what a lot of these oil traders have been talking about is about the actual physical price and then the future price, which is what we're all looking at, right, with the crude oil futures, et cetera. So if the physical price is now currently trading at $150 per barrel, the expectation is that without any change is that the future price will catch up with what the actual physical price is trading at. And again, just to put things in perspective, 150 a barrel. I mean, it's roughly $5.50, $6 a gallon nationally, something like that, you know, depending on where you live. That's catastrophic. The highest price reached under Biden was 505. And that was a nightmare. I mean, I know you remember that as well. Consumers were getting nuked by that one. And the Biden administration, they tried everything. What did they say? Vladimir Putin's price hike. Well, and they also tried. We had like more in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at that point, too. We had more room to wiggle, you know, wiggle. There was an SPR release, I think, after that. We've already done the SPR release. And that's, you know, so the market is taking that into consideration. I just, I think everybody really should prepare for. for future, like, especially if these attacks continue, which we should take the secretary at his word, today will be the biggest day of strikes. He basically says that every day, so I don't know. But he said today will be the biggest day of strikes on Iran. Let's take the man at his word. What does that mean? What are you striking in conjunction with the Israelis? Maybe they learn their lesson not to hit... The South Paris gas field, are you going to hit other oil refineries? Or do we have any real expectation? These Israelis are going to fight that way? I mean, we are in a genuine crunch. And I think global, if we have a global depression, it will begin in Asia because they are so, so heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil and on Middle Eastern gas. The Chinese are going to be okay. They have an immense amount of capacity, of strategic reserve. They plan for things like this. And they have their own domestic oil. They have their own domestic capacity. They have solar. They have, by the way, no compunction about burning as much coal or any of that if that they need to. They will be fine and they will start to think about it. The countries that will really suffer, who also, I will be fair to them, they have their own reserves and they plan for this, but they're more relying on us. Japan and South Korea. South Korea is a number two buyer of Katari, LNG, the Japanese prime minister, she's here in Washington today. Her entire meeting, their whole meeting with them, which was planned months in advance. only supposed to be about trade and our trade agreement and what that was all going to look like. The whole thing is now about Iran. And Trump berating her for being not sending their limited navy to the Straits of Hormuz. I mean, their economy is seriously, is very precarious. They've only got 200 days or so of oil that's in their strategic reserve. They're going to have to be buying an immense price. I checked yesterday the front page of the Yomiri Shunbun, and it was like 415 or something a gallon.

in leader price. It's the biggest story in Japan that's happening right now. So like, and that's our number, what, number three trading partner? Like, this is the most important allies in the world. Well, Japan and South Korea. Pete Hegseth said that the European should be telling us thank you this morning. I'm sure they're feeling really grateful for the fact that we've completely once again destabilized their countries and upended their economies. One more update on Mr. Pete Hegseth and his briefing this morning. So we were talking earlier about how Jeff Stein reported the recording. to Congress was likely to be $200 billion. Well, he says that's actually the, that's like the low end. He says, we're going back to Congress and our folks there to ensure we're properly funded, quote, it takes money to kill bad guys. And he said that that war funding request, quote, could move. Meaning it's not moving down, guys. It's only moving in one direction. So $200 billion, I guess, is the optimistic estimate of what they're going to be asking Congress for. I mean, this is just a catastrophe. What else can you say? It's an utter catastrophe. Yeah, 200 billion. I mean, this is how it starts. This is why you don't get into these situations in the first place. And the logic of it all, it's so, I'm so excited to talk to, not excited, but, you know, in a way depressed to talk to Professor Pate because his, Framework and logic and steps, it all makes sense. And once you can put that framework and evaluate events through that, you're going to see exactly where things are going. And that's why, oh, panic in, catastrophe. I remember, so Rory had a tweet on, I think, maybe day three, four. And he said, oil is going to $200 a barrel if the Straits of Horm moves are closed. And, you know, people ridiculed him. They ridiculed me and us whenever we had him here on the show. I actually got multiple mess. because oil dropped a little bit after that. And I said, did you not read it? He said if it remains closed for a prolonged period. He's right. Look at where things are currently trending. He was totally vindicated on what that happened. So the initial expectations of every single one of these people that were saying, listen, if this goes on more than three weeks, we're here now. What is it, day 19? It's day 19 of the war. We got two more days and we're at three weeks. Nobody thinks that this is going to end. All of those initial weeks conversations, they were correct. And that was with the best case that they were laying out. We already know that we're not in the best case scenario. They're not surrendering. There's no evidence whatsoever ever. Yesterday, the Iranians actually fired more missiles than they have in a long time in like two or three weeks. And the penetration rate appears to be higher as well because they're running out of interceptors. Interceptors are running out. Oh, shocking. We're getting, I mean, the Raslifan Gasfield. Does nobody think about this? Qatar, there's 10,000 U.S. troops station at that base at the Al-Aid Air Force Base. We're supposed to have a ton of air defense. Nobody thought that this was going to be a target? You can't shoot it down? What happened? That's a seriously, a serious problem, which apparently nobody's even talking about. We weren't even able to shoot it down. What a nightmare. Not to mention one of our carriers having to limp back to Crete for repairs because of the fire, which they're also investigating whether crew members actually set that fire because they were so desperate to get off of the ship. Yeah, you didn't see that. I mean, that's one possibility and other possibilities we're being lied to about the source of fire. In any case, whatever action.

happened there. You know, it's being removed from the region because it has to go and undergo repairs. You know, the other carrier that's in the region, you know, they have to stay a good distance away because they are worried about Iranian attacks and being able to actually strike them. So in any case, the landscape is pretty dire here, and none of this was difficult to anticipate. None of it was difficult to anticipate at all. But, you know, you had a president who decided that, you know, he... He knew better and chose who he wanted to listen to. He decided he liked the lines that the Israelis were giving him and effectively continues to follow their lead based on what we're seeing in the battlefield. Yeah, there you go. All right, we have Professor John Meersheimer standing by. Let's get to it. I'm Emily Oster. I'm an economist and data expert. And I'm Perry Wilson. I'm a medical doctor. And this is our new podcast, Wellness Actually. Because you're getting a staggering amount of health and wellness information nowadays, and some of it is awesome. And some of it is, well, actually bullshit. Fortunately, we're both people who know how to read studies, parse data, and can tell you what's worth trying out and what you can safely ignore. Each episode, we tackle the health news of the week and then take a deeper dive into a misunderstood health and wellness topic like... What's the deal with peptide? What's the deal with GLP-1s? What's the deal with creatine? What's the deal with cupping? What's the deal with sleep? So join us for a weekly dose of sanity. It might actually be just with the doctor. Or the economist. Ordered. Listen to Wellness Actually on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bill, why is my eye twitching? Does this mean I'm in perimenopause? Maybe I have adult ADHD. I need to look this up. Where's my phone? Juliana, your phone is hot to the touch. I think it's asking you for a break. You know what? Maybe I should just ask chat GPT. Or maybe we can ask an actual human. Yes, like a couple sex therapist. Whoa, that escalated quickly, but... Okay. Because I have questions. We have questions. And I bet everyone has questions. Like, is it normal to sleep in separate bedrooms? We do that. How about this one? Is bribing your kids bad parenting or just negotiating? Oh, and I still do need to know why was my poop green that one time? Hypothetically, right? Okay, well, instead of letting the internet guess, we've got actual people... answering these exact questions. And laughing with us has got to be better than spending three hours down a rabbit hole online. Listen to Bill and Juliana. The podcast. On the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Hi, my love. Starting your day can be tough. You wake up. maybe hit snooze, and then scroll on your phone for a while, checking your emails, all before even giving yourself the chance to really open your eyes and breathe. And I want to help you break that cycle. My name is Ryan Bari Weiss, and for the past 15 years, I've been an emotional intelligence coach and spiritual guide, and I'm here to share with you my new podcast, Waking Up with Ryan. Waking Up with Ryan is a daily audio video podcast to interrupt the inertia of your fear, your ego, and judgment. Here to help you connect with yourself before the noise of the day takes over. So let's start our days together with a moment of calm, a moment of reflection and meditation, a moment that's just for you. Listen to Waking Up with Ryan on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Joining us now is Professor John Meersheimer of the University of Chicago. Great friend of the show. We're honored to always to speak to him. Thank you very much for joining us, sir. My pleasure to be here. So, Professor, we haven't been able to speak with you since the outbreak of the conflict. We have been reading quite a bit and looking at some realist scholars. First, we've seen this piece from Foreign Affairs. So let's put this up here on the screen. Curious for your reaction. He says, how America's war on Iran backfired and Tehran will now set the terms for peace. Your general reaction, not only to the war as where we are stand now, but how, if any way, that this actual conflict could come to a close. Well, I think that starting this war was a colossal mistake. And it's hard to believe that President Trump did this, not simply because he had promised that he would not start any more wars and certainly not get us into a forever war. But if you're going to go to war, this is the last war that you want to start. And the reason is that the Iranians hold most of the cards.

If you think about where we are today, and you think more importantly about further marching up the escalation ladder, Iran can do enormous damage to the international economy. And there's nothing much we can do to prevent that. So we're in a precarious situation right now, and I would argue we don't have an exit ramp, but as we move forward, things only get worse. We've been talking a lot this morning on the Israeli-U.S. attacks on the South Pars gas field in Iran and then Iranian retaliation, both in Saudi and Kuwait and in Qatar. What do you make of the significance of these developments and this escalation? I think it's hugely significant. And I think the fact that President Trump issued this post where he made it clear how angry he was at the Israelis for doing this is evidence of that. Look, President Trump is doing everything he can to keep oil prices under $100 a barrel. And that is not easy to do. And I would note... that he has taken sanctions off Russian oil, and he has allowed Iran to sell its oil. It's very important to understand that Iran is selling its oil on world markets. Iran has been allowed to send oil through the Strait of Hormuz. And the reason that Trump is allowing this is because he wants all the oil he could possibly get in the world oil markets. And he's been quite successful, at least at keeping the price of a barrel down under slightly less than $100. Well, what happened yesterday when the Israelis hit this natural gas field in Iran, and then the Iranians retaliated first against Qatar, and now apparently they're attacking Saudi Arabian sites as well. is that the price of a barrel of oil is going up. I saw it was up around $115 this morning. This is disastrous for the United States and for the world economy. And if things continue to escalate, which is a real possibility, the economic situation will only get worse. So what happened yesterday really mattered. And that, again, is why President Trump made it clear to the Israelis, don't ever do this again. Well, Professor, what do you think the best and worst-case scenarios are at this point? Start with the best. The best case is that we work out some sort of negotiated settlement, but I don't see how you can do that. The fact is that... get Iran to stop the war, you have to make major concessions to the Iranians. And I find it hard to imagine the United States and Israel making the sort of concessions that are necessary to get Iran to stop. So I see the war going on. And the worst case scenario is that you continue to march up the escalation ladder.

And the consequences for the international economy are devastating. And, you know, we were just talking about oil, but it's not only oil. One third of the world's fertilizer comes through the Strait of Hormuz. And it's quite clear that what's happening is that without fertilizer, farmers all around the world, including in the United States, are beginning to have major problems, planting and... and harvesting food. And what this means for the future is that the price of food is going to go up. So not only is the price of gas going to go up and the price of oil going to go up, but the price of food is going to go up. And this is going to create major league inflation, which is going to slow down growth and result in the deaths of many people all around the world. So the potential for disaster here is just not to be underestimated. Yeah. Well, and to your point about the unlikelyhood of a negotiated settlement, you know, not only do you have the Iranians that are like, no, you haven't experienced enough pain yet, so we would demand significant concessions in order to come to the table at this point. They don't seem interested in talking right now at all. You also have the Israelis that want this thing to keep going. I wanted to get your reaction specifically to the assassination of Ali Larijani. There's been a lot of speculation that the Israelis are effectively trying to make sure that any potential off-ramps are taken off the table, that anyone who could have been an interlocutor could have been a negotiator is assassinated, so they are no longer available, that you have more hardliners who are in place within the Iranian government. I wonder if that's your assessment as well. It certainly looks like that. I mean, anybody who is moderate inside of the Israeli government is taken out. But I think the Iranian government. Excuse me, the Iranian government is taken out. But I think it's quite clear that more generally the Israelis have this theory. that if they can decapitate the regime, that's a quick way to victory. And this is a fallacious strategy. It just doesn't work. So the idea that they can kill Iranian leaders, and that's going to bring the war to an end, is not a smart idea. And again, I think you're right that what the Israelis are trying to do also is take out the moderates and see them replaced by more hardliners, making it more. difficult to get a negotiated settlement. But I would argue, Crystal, that no matter who's in charge in Iran, it's hard to see how you get a deal. And the reason is that we would have to make major league concessions to the Iranians to put an end to this war. And that would involve things like ending sanctions or taking at least most of the sanctions off the table, maybe paying reparations, and also just working out a deal. where Iran is guaranteed that it won't be attacked in another six months. You want to remember that there was a war in June where Israel and the United States attacked Iran, and here we are, not even a year later, and we're back at it. The Iranians want this to be the last attack by Israel and the United States, so we'd have to give them some sort of guarantees. I find it hard to imagine the United States and Israel doing that.

Right. You know, Professor, what do you also make now of US alliances? And so I've been talking ad nauseum here on the show about the punishment that we're giving to the Japanese, the South Korean, the Taiwanese economies, about the GCC nations, which are... projected to contract 14, 15%. Qatar now, I mean, their literal lifeblood is natural gas. Who knows how long it will take to rebuild their own facilities, even if the war were to end today. And we magically, you know, gave them sanctions relief and somehow miraculously convinced them not to pursue a nuclear weapon, which I think they would probably want to do at this point. Let's say all of that happened. If everything ends today, What are the state and strategic logic of actual U.S. alliances, which are far more important to the U.S. than Israel after this war? Well, we've done significant damages to our allies around the world. There's just no question about that. If you look at what's happening in Japan and in India and in South Korea, this is disastrous. And the same thing is true with regard to Europe. By the way, there have been all sorts of reports that instability is returning to Iraq, that the Iran war is spilling over into Iraq. We could go on and on. I mean, the negative consequences of this war are extensive. And the fact is, we're not going to get a negotiated settlement anytime soon. This war is going to go on, and the Iranians, of course, have a vested interest in keeping it going until the United States is willing to make the concessions that they demand. Let's go ahead and put C4 up on the screen here. Israel has also used this as an opportunity to, it appears, annex additional territory in Lebanon, certainly to attack within Lebanon. Here they are, you know, downing a complete apartment building in central Beirut. They, you know, are just... Also warning residents saying that they want to remove them permanently from portions of South Lebanon. Here's another image of the apartment building being destroyed and demolished in the middle of a major city here. So can you talk to us about some of Israel's larger goals and what they're up to not only Lebanon and West Bank in Gaza and what the project is? Well, the Israelis, I think, have two goals in Lebanon, one which is to permanently defang Hezbollah. And then, two, I think they want to control all of the territory in southern Lebanon up to the Latani River. Before this war started on February 28th, the conventional wisdom in the West.

was that Hezbollah had been defanged and was no longer a serious threat to Israel. Well, we've been watching Hezbollah lob missiles into northern Israel, lob rockets into northern Israel, and all the evidence is that Hezbollah is very much alive. I would also note to you that the Iranians are coordinating with Hezbollah, according to all the reports I've seen. And the Iranians are lobbying missiles into northern Israel, where Hezbollah is firing away. So in northern Israel... The Israeli citizenry is getting bombed quite regularly, which is disastrous for Israel. Furthermore, with regard to invading southern Lebanon and going up to the Latani River, if you look at... the number of Hezbollah forces in that region, you look at the terrain, I think it's extremely unlikely that the Israelis are going to be successful. And again, I've been reading reports that the Israelis are losing lots of Merkava tanks, as you would expect, in their attempts to conquer more territory in southern Lebanon. So from an Israeli point of view, what's happening vis-a-vis Hezbollah in Lebanon is not good news. They are not doing well. against Iran and they're not doing well against Lebanon. Then why? Why do they continue to do this? Benjamin Netanyahu is bragged about becoming a, quote, global superpower. I believe he said that in Hebrew. Is that really just about fulfilling his ambition to destroy any potential regional threat, even at the cost of becoming a global pariah and co-opting the United States of America, which itself may abandon it sometime in the future? Why would they continue to expend this much blood and treasure if it's really not in their interest? Or is it? Well, I'd make two points. One is the Israelis are addicted to war. The Israelis believe in a very profound way in big stick diplomacy. They believe that they can pound countries into submission. They don't believe that you need political settlements to solve wars. They think that you can settle wars with the mailed fist. This is a foolish way of thinking, but it is the way they think. And that explains a lot of what's going on. The second thing is that it's quite clear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

is in political trouble and legal trouble inside of Israel, and that his best strategy for surviving is a constant state of war. So many Israelis believe that as long as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in office, he's going to go to great lengths to keep the war machine in action, to keep... fighting wars because that's the best way he can achieve political survival. So I think it's those two factors together that account for what Israel is doing. I wanted to get your reaction to some of the allegations of Joe Kent, who just resigned from the Trump administration over the Iran war. And in his telling, effectively, you know, Israel came in and tricked effectively. Trump into pursuing this path. He told Tucker Carlson yesterday and clips we're going to do a more fulsome review of this interview later in the show. But he told Tucker Carlson effectively they would bring in what appeared to be faulty intelligence to try to manipulate the president and his advisors. And that is ultimately the reason why Trump launched this war. What do you make of those allegations and how does that match with the reporting and the, you know, thinking you've done about the way that Israel... operates in the U.S. I have no doubt that Joe Kent is correct, that it was Israel and the Israel lobby that led us into this war. I mean, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, and Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, said as much immediately after the war started. They made it clear that it wasn't the United States that took the initiative in starting this war. It was Israel that took the initiative, and Israel, in effect, dragged us in. Furthermore, you want to remember that Lindsey Graham has admitted that he went to Israel and he coached. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on how to convince President Trump to go to war against Iran. You just want to think about that. Here's a US senator saying that he was coaching Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on how to get President Trump to go to war against Iran. In other words, President Trump needed coaching. because his basic inclination was not to go to war against Iran. And then if you look at what was happening inside the United States, all you have to do is look at the two principal individuals who were advising Trump on whether or not he should go to war. They were Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. who are passionate Zionists. In fact, Jonathan Jerome Powell, who is Britain's national security advisor. This is Britain's national security advisor. He was present that the negotiations that were taking place between Iran and the United States right before the war. And he describes Jared Kushner.

and Steve Witkoff as Israeli assets. Just think about that. The two principal advisors to President Trump. And remember, President Trump said that he was going to take his cue from those two individuals as to whether or not he should go to war against Iran were seen by the British National Security Advisor as Israeli assets. Truly remarkable. This is just the tip of the iceberg. I could point to all sorts of other evidence that it was Israel and it was the lobby that pushed President Trump into this war. And why do you think they succeeded with this president with other presidents? Obviously, I mean, Benjamin Netanyahu talks about, he was one of this war for 40 years, is fulfillment of his greatest fantasy. Trump is not the first U.S. president to get pressured towards a war in Iran. What was it about? him or his administration or the tactics that they used that allowed them to succeed here where they had failed in the past. Well, first of all, there's the possibility that they have information about President Trump's past behavior that they're using to blackmail him. We have no hard evidence of that. I want to make it clear. But just watching this unfold, it does seem like that might be the case because President Trump is so beholden to the Israelis. It's really quite amazing. But I think... The two other arguments that you can put on the table are, number one, that the Israelis actually convinced him that Iran was a paper tiger and that it could be easily brought to its knees. You want to remember that before the war started, when President Trump had moved the armada into the Middle East, Steve Witkoff said that President Trump was surprised that the mere presence of the armada and the threat that that armada might be used against Iran didn't bring the Iranians to surrender. He thought that the threat, the mere threat of force, would coerce the Iranians into surrendering. That tells you he thought that this regime was very weak. He thought it would fail quickly. And this, by the way, is why President Trump didn't accept the arguments that this would be a long war and that the Iranians were likely to shut the strait of Hormuz. He has said that he was told that the Iranians were likely to shut the strait of Hormuz. But he just didn't believe it because he thought we would win a quick and easy and decisive victory. So I think... President Trump was primed, mainly through the Israelis, to think that this was going to be an easy victory. Then the other thing is, I think the Venezuela precedent gave him the impression that he could float like a butterfly and sting like a bee, that what he did in Venezuela, he could do in Iran.

I don't think he fully realized, despite the fact that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was telling him that this was going to be an extremely difficult operation, and we really didn't have a good military option. President Trump just disregarded that. He thought that the naysayers said this before Venezuela, but I went out and proved that we can do magical things in Venezuela, and I'll just do magical things again. against Iran. And I think when you put Venezuela together with the stories he was being told about how weak and how vulnerable the Iranian regime was, I think it was easy for him to pull the trigger. Last question for you, sir, about the Straits of Hormuz. It appears that some sort of ground operation is, you know, I wouldn't say it seems potential with the deployment of all these troops. It would make sense in terms of the escalation ladder. I believe you've compared it before potential to Gallipoli. What would that look like? What would that draw us into? Any sort of ground control operation on the Straits of Hermuz or on Carg Island. Well, Carg Island is different than the strait, because you have to get through the strait to get to Carg Island, unless you want to launch an attack from Saudi Arabia across the Persian Gulf onto the beaches of Carg Island, which I don't think we want to do. I think it's almost impossible to get through. the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, it's very clear that you can't use naval force alone to get through. The U.S. Navy won't even go near the strait, and all the precedents in this regard say stay away. Ground forces, it would require a major operation. And even if you brought ground forces in and you controlled the terrain around the strait, the fact is it would still be exceedingly difficult for the Navy and for tankers and other kinds of ships. to cargo ships to get through the Strait, in large part because there would still be mines at the bottom of the Strait, lots of mines, which are easy for the Iranians to lay. And furthermore, the Iranians have all sorts of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones, both sea-based and air-based, that they can use to attack any ships that come near the Strait. So I'm not sure that even if you... wanted to commit large-scale ground forces to try and surround the strait that that would solve the problem. And most importantly here, once you commit large-scale ground forces, you're in a quagmire. I mean, this would be disastrous. Trump clearly understands that, that, you know, putting ground forces...

anywhere inside of Iran, whether it's Karg Island, whether it's around the strait, whether you're talking about putting ground forces inside of Iran to try and capture that enriched uranium that they have is a prescription for big trouble. Well, thank you so much for joining us, sir. As always, we appreciate your analysis. You're more than welcome. It was my pleasure. Thank you. My first guest is Karas Hilton, Shakira, Luke, and Yerrin. You have surprises? Many surprises. Welcome to the Sweet 305 podcast where the group check comes to life. What on? You're the only person I know that loves a yellow starburst. It's lemonade. This is Sweet 305. Here, oversharing is encouraged. Listen to Sweet 305 with Lele Pons on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody, I'm Tariqa Foster Brasby. What's up, y'all? I'm your girl, Cheryl Eric Swalwell. When you tune in to a new episode of our podcast levels to this, you're definitely going to get some spy CWNBA analysis. But we're more than just hoops. And the real conversation is what we actually breathe. It's been really, really cool seeing kind of these women just really step into their power off the court and understand that they aren't basketball, right? And they're not asking for permission. Listen to levels to this with Stroze Spooops and Tarika Foster Brasby on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I'm Munga Chitigula and I'm back with a new season of my podcast, Skyline Drive. This time I talked to scientists, biopunks, curmudgens, blues owners, super seniors, and Goa's top cryotherapy lab to try to understand this obsession with living forever and what it means for all of us. And I get into a bit of trouble along the way. I'd say probably start bone smashing. That doesn't work. To make it look more defined. They say it works. I don't know. Listen to Skyline Drive, How to Live Forever on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.