520. Orbán Ousted: Is The Tide Turning Against Far-Right Populism?

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Hi there. Welcome to the rest of the politics. With me, Alison Campbell, Rale is still away. He's back in action tomorrow, but I felt we couldn't really let the events of the last 24 hours passed without reflecting on just how big a moment this is, the end of Viktor Orban's rule of Hungary. 16 years, four terms, enough time to create what many people have called a mafia state, and where Viktor Orban had become so much more than the leader of a country of fewer than 10 million people.

It becomes a symbol of far-right, kleptocratic, authoritarian nationalism, which, because Donald Trump is back in the White House, pursuing much the same agenda, and often citing Viktor Orban as an inspiration, many had assumed it was the winning formula for modern politics and modern campaigns. Viktor Orban has lost and he's lost big, so big that he had no option but to throw in the towel long before all the votes were even counted. But he's not the only loser. Trump lost. Vladimir Putin lost. Millie, Maloney, Benjamin Netanyahu, plenty of fellow right-wing leaders broke that basic rule of not interfering in other countries' elections to say, vote or ban. And they lost two, because in so doing, they put themselves and their politics

on the ballot alongside him. And that's why this election is not just about Hungary, which is a landlocked country that could fit inside Indiana, a single American state. It's seven times smaller than Texas and 180 times. smaller than Russia. This is about what it says about what happens when the politics and policies of far-right nationalism are actually exposed to real challenge and real scrutiny. And it shows they can be beaten. Now, Trump went further than most. He sent Secretary of State Marco Rubio to campaign for Viktor Orban, and then the vital final week he sent Vice President JD Vance, who seems to have been as effective at driving up the Viktor Orban vote as he was at leading the talks in 18.

Islamabad to end the war with Iran. That guy is turning out to be quite a loser. On election day itself, Trump and his family and friends who, like Viktor Orban's friends and family, are getting very rich on the back of their guy being in power, posted relentlessly on social media, urging Hungarians to vote Viktor Orban to have a direct line to the White House. And guess what? The Hungarians' cue from dawn voted in record numbers, 80% turnout, to say, no thank you, Trump, no thank you, Elon Musk, no thank you, Mr. JD Vance, take your interference elsewhere. What was it, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in our interview that was out early this week, I'm not sure sending JD is a good idea for Viktor Orban. Well, how right he was.

As for Vladimir Putin, he sent in money to burn and agents galore, where once the Kremlin enemy to be plastered all over Viktor Orban's election posters was George Soros, now it was President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Ursula von der Leyen. Anyone in Budapest in recent weeks would have thought that they, not Viktor Orban and Magyar, were the candidates. And guess what? It seems a lot of Hungarians seem to think that Ukraine is a country worth backing, Russia is a country worth fighting against, and the EU a body worth being part of and worth supporting. So the money spent on bribing voters has been wasted. The wind that was so big that the Kremlin's planned operation to claim that Magyar had stolen votes. Get this, they were even going to announce the setting up of a democracy protection

unit was not even fully activated. As in Moldova, where they launched a similar operation against Myasandu, the Russians head home defeated. For now, they'll keep going. So Trump loses, Vladimir Putin loses, Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen. Alice Vidal and the FD, they lose because the playbook they thought would see them close to power, it looks a lot less solid than it once was. Closeness to Trump, fondness for Vladimir Putin, love of money and using politics to get rich, all now exposed as real handicaps, not assets. And it's about time their opponents understood,

they are there to be taken apart with greater confidence than thus far shown. What Magyar has shown is that with the right strategy, with confidence and conviction, these people can not just be beaten, they can be thrashed. Now, don't get me wrong, Péter Magyar is a very unlikely hero for anyone on the progressive left of politics. He himself is a former leading light in Viktor Orban's Fidesh party. He's well to the right of some of the European political figures who have been rejoicing at his win. But he matched the strategy to the needs of the time, and he did. deserves all the plaudits coming his way for that. Now, the hard part begins, though the scale of the

win means he should be able to undo most of Viktor Orban's egregious changes. I hope some of you have listened to the first part of our mini-series on populism in which we've been talking to Labour MP Liam Byrne about his book on why the populace are winning and how to defeat them. Now, we delayed part two for a week because of the Volodymyr Zelensky interview. That'll be out on Friday. And Magyar's campaign fits with some of the advice that Liam gave in last week's episode. You have to listen to voters and you do not condemn them because of their different views. You respect the differences and you try to persuade them to your side. Fidesh, for example, thought that they had a monopoly on Hungarian nationalism.

Magyar developed a language and a style that spoke to a more inclusive version of it. Like Trump, Viktor Orban portrayed his own politics and his own supporters as the country, casting all critics as outsiders. Magyar sought to appeal to Fidesh voters as part of a shared political and national community, and it worked. I often talk, as you know, of the three P's populism, polarisation, post-truth. Liam Byrne says the populace rely on three A's, appeasement, autocracy and avarice. appeasement means making people feel you can't beat them, so you may as well join them. Sit it out. Magyar refused to accept you couldn't win. No to appeasement, no to doing deals. Civil society, despite massive pressures on them, never gave up. And they and Magyar exposed the

autocracy and the avarice, not to claim some kind of moral superiority, but to show that the living standards of ordinary people were harmed by the corruption. of the ruling elite. And this is where Viktor Orban really screwed it up for himself. I talked to Dominic Sandbrook about this on the podcast last week when he stood in Ferroari, pointed out that if you win power by posing as a man of the people fighting a corrupt elite and you become the corrupt elite yourself, don't be too shocked if the people turn against you. Now Vladimir Putin could get around that by going full on dictator. Viktor Orban, not least because Hungary is in the European Union, more constrained. But the more EU resources seem to be landing in the hands of his inner circle,

his best friend, a former gas fitter, becomes the richest man in Hungary, the more Magyar was able to relate the industrial-scale corruption to people's everyday lives. A part of Viktor Orban's hubris was that because he developed a near-Vladimir Putin-like grip on the media, he assumed that their 24-7 propaganda on his behalf would work. But real public opinion, much of it stopped listening ages ago. It's why when I tried to talk him into coming on the podcast when I met him at the Germany-Skotland game in the 2024 euros, I said to him, you can't spend your whole time just preaching to the converted. You need to be challenged a bit. He was very charming about it as the film of our chat recorded, but he didn't agree.

I have to say, Victor, the offer still stands. I suspect the same hubris made him think that Hungary would be proud that the leader of their little country was so admired by Vladimir Putin and all the rest. But no, it turns out they were ashamed of it. Trump is so narcissistic, he cannot see what is plain to most of us, that among all but the true believers, his brand is truly tanking. Anthony Albanese in Australia, Mark Carney and Canada, and Magyar, Trump has helped them all win. Might I suggest, Keir Starmer, that he leans a little harder into the opprobrium

Trump keeps sending in his direction. Embrace it, wear it as a badge of pride. Check out Mark Carney's speech at the weekend, no missing. Check out Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish Prime Minister. Is he backing down in the face of all the threats and the insults? Far from it. The Trump illusion of omnipotence like the Viktor Orban myth of invincibility is wearing thin. Now, as with Dolov Tusk who defeated the far right in Poland, so Magyar will now find and considerable resistance from the forces Viktor Orban has cemented into all aspects of Hungarian life. But the scale of his victory really helps. Viktor Orban conceding defeat so quickly, whatever the motivations was a signal of that.

It means Magia might actually be able to deliver on campaign promises, including systemic institutional change to unlock more than 6 billion euros of EU funding. And the other big winner, thank heavens, is Ukraine. Viktor Orban has been doing Vladimir Putin's bidding for too long. The leaked conversations recently between Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and his Hungarian counterpart exposed that for all to see. Viktor Orban has sought to block and undermine EU support for President Volodymyr Zelensky at every turn. It's now likely, definitely possible, probably probable, that the long-promised 90 billion euros of support will begin to flow. That could be a lifesaver at a time that Russia.

is benefiting from the oil prize rise and Trump's indifference to Ukraine and frankly what looks like loathing of Europe. If you haven't listened to the Volodymyr Zelensky interview yet, please do. As he himself admits, no leader is perfect, but when you compare his leadership skills, courage, the values, honesty,

consistency, dare I say, perseverance against the leadership values of Trump, as a retired diplomat messaged me on the back of listening to the interview, Trump is not fit to lace Volodymyr Zelensky. boots. Trump's election wins, sending him back to the White House, was a big blow to liberal democracy and a big blow to Ukraine, and so to Europe. The ordinary people of Hungary have shown there

is another way, which is why the celebrations are taking place well beyond the country's borders. And just on that, we got lots of emails from listeners. We do seem to have plenty of listeners in Hungary, and I want to close by reading one out that we got this morning from somebody by the name of Doreena. She says, my name is Doreena. As of a few years, And as of a few hours ago, I'm a 32-year-old, proud again Hungarian. I wanted to give you an insight into what we're feeling today in Budapest. It's like New Year's Eve. People are lighting fireworks.

Everyone is on the streets. We genuinely cannot believe this has happened. We're having the biggest party of our lives. We're not going home anytime soon. I wanted to thank you for your coverage of the elections because it helped me illustrate its significance when I was speaking to non-Hungarian friends. We already felt the wind of change on Friday when we went to a huge regime change concert, but we didn't dare hope.

Now we can. We're optimistic and looking forward to the future. Peter Maggiar is not perfect. I never would have voted for him under normal circumstances, but he's our best chance, and I really, really hope he will not let us down. Thank you for all you do and for rooting for us now. Let's get on working to get the UK back into the European Union too. All the best.

from an extremely happy Hungarian. So there you go. That's how she's feeling. That's I'm sure how others are feeling. It's frankly how I'm feeling as well. Back for more later in the week when Rory's back from his holiday. Lots to talk about. Hungary, of course, Ukraine, Iran, elections in Scotland and Wales

and local councils on May the 7th. So much to talk about in the main episode and in question time. See you then. But for now, well done, Hungary.

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