Can Mark Carney keep the provinces happy?

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For a limited time, go to Stamps.com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift. Taxes and fees apply. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. In Alberta, there does need to be a demonstration that Canada can work. And I think that we've demonstrated a couple of things over the last number of months that we can work well together. We've changed course on a number of things.

And Alberta wants to continue to build major projects in partnership with the federal government. So we're looking forward to seeing if we can make some progress and get this to the finish line. Track record is there. I'm sure we will. That was Alberta Premier Daniel Smith, voicing some skepticism Friday ahead of a meeting with the prime minister, asking if a deal between the federal government and Alberta around a potential new pipeline will actually make it to the finish line.

Well, it seems that the prime minister provided more reassurance during the meeting. Daniel Smith emerged, saying she felt more confident than before. The province and the federal government are still tied up in negotiations over carbon pricing and carbon capture. Meanwhile, Alberta is grappling with divisions of its own. own over questions of separatism, and those are just some of the many pressing matters of national unity on the prime minister's plate as Parliament takes two weeks break before a key final four week sitting before the summer. Our National Affairs panel is here to stitch this

all up. Aaron Wary is a senior reporter with the CBC's Parliamentary Bureau. Stephanie Levitz is a senior reporter in the Globe and Mail's Ottawa Bureau and Ryan Tumelty, a parliamentary reporter for the Toronto Star. Good Monday morning to you all. Good morning. Steph, let's start with Alberta. Daniel Smith said it was a meeting of the minds. The meeting must have gone very well. Yeah, she was in an ebullent mood, to say the least.

When she addressed reporters a little while after this meeting, she didn't give any specifics. She didn't explain sort of how they come closer together, but I've reported in the Globe and Mail that part of the issue is where the province wants to go on industrial carbon pricing and how fast they're willing to get there. But it seems like they might have shown. shortened that timeline and they're inching ever closer to having the conditions in place for

Daniel Smith to get her pipeline. Ryan, why is it taken so long for Alberta and Ottawa to negotiate the remaining agreements? Daniel Smith said Albertans are getting impatient. When we were in Calgary, we heard from industry saying that it was beginning to lose confidence in some ways in the ability of Ottawa to land this deal. Why is it taken so long, do you think? I think it's taking so long because the piece that they are trying, that the piece that seems to be, be the sticking point is this carbon price. So they agreed on $130 as the target. They didn't agree on when they would get to that target. And everything flows from that. So the Pathways Carbon Project, which is part of this deal, depends on a carbon price of a certain level. And it depends on it

probably escalating to make the economics of it make sense. And the government isn't going to do a pipeline without that pathways project in place. And without a pipeline, it's hard to justify expanding in the oil sands. And, and, and, and. So, you know, I think what's taken

so long really is that this one last piece will have all the other dominoes fall into play, really. So it becomes central and getting it right from both sides' perspective becomes essential. Aaron, once those final details

are announced, how likely is it that everyone, including the prime minister and the Premier of Alberta, but also others in the Liberal Caucus, the other provinces, those who are watching this, you have people in the climate world who are paying close attention to this as well. How likely is it that everyone will be happy or anyone will be happy with this? I think it'll be hard for everyone to be happy. You know, look, whenever this MOU lands, the next question will be who's, going to build this pipeline, if there is agreement on a pipeline, who is going to be the private proponent? Then the question, you know, the question from the environmental side will be,

you know, has this meaningfully advanced climate policy in terms of the carbon price, in terms of the pathways project, are those, you know, actually going to move forward now? And it's going to land in the midst now we know of a larger discussion about the regulatory reforms that the Carney government is pursuing that they announced late last week that have stirred up a lot of criticism and concern amongst environmental communities. So yeah, I think it's going to be very hard for everyone to be happy about this. I think there is a path for Carney to say that he's meaningfully advanced climate policy here, but it's a very tricky balancing act. Those regulatory reforms, Aaron, do you just want to give kind of the thumbnail sketch on it? In

some ways, it seems like it's about reversing the process in some ways that you give the green light to something before you check the boxes on the approval side of things. Yeah. So he's laid out, I guess the thumbnail sketch would be that they've put out a discussion paper late last week for consultations on kind of a larger reform to the way they review and approve major resource projects. And it's an attempt, I think, to kind of dial back some of the Trudeau reforms and make it easier to advance projects.

but as we know from now successive governments, whenever you start kind of fiddling with this area of policy, you're likely to anger someone. And so it's going to be very tricky. It's going to be very interesting, I guess, to see how they deal with the feedback they're getting because at this point they are still officially consulting on it. But the MOU is going to land presumably in the middle of all that,

and that's just going to add to, I think, a lot of attention on this government's environmental and climate agenda. Steph, two things on this. One is you and I have spoken before about the fact that it's a year since Mark Carney became the prime minister. And so there is pressure, presumably on him to get things moving. Is that why there has been this revision, if we can put it that way, to how these major projects would be approved? Yeah, I'm curious about that, right? And I don't actually have an answer because this seems like something, you know, critics have been raising concerns about the broader regulatory process for natural resource development outside this idea of these big, nation-building projects forever. And there's no doubt that this regulatory reform that he's proposing, I think he could have gotten it done in a minority government. You know, I don't know that the conservatives wouldn't have backed

whatever might need to happen here legislatively or otherwise. So it's curious to me that they're proceeding now. It's curious that they're not necessarily doing what a lot of folks in industry and also the opposition and benches have called for, which is rip up existing legislation. Like just start from scratch. rip up the bills that people say get in the way of development, as opposed to forging like another path here?

Like it's sort of, you know, a knock against the Carney government has been since it has taken office, that instead of going with the systems that are in place, it keeps setting up new systems. So you have the major projects office, and you have Build Canada Homes, and you have a new defense procurement industry, and now they're tackling a whole new approach to regulatory

for national resource development, they're shifting things around. I don't know why they keep trying to reinvent the wheel. Obviously, our wheel, I don't know, has gone off the road. That's bastardized the metaphor. But from their perspective, but is really just inventing a whole new car the way to drive forward the national economy? Or is there not a simpler and cleaner way? The other part of this is, will this actually get things built in an expedited fashion, I suppose? because you have now environmental groups that are very upset with this.

British Columbia, I don't know where the BC government is going to stand on this. If it's about a pipeline, if you're trying to move things through, because the Premier of BC has said that this is a fantasy bitchement pipeline, in his words, that there's nobody behind it, and he's not happy with the route such as it is. You have the Assembly of First Nations that's been calling for more consultation. So, Steph, where does that leave the goal of this? Possibly before the courts, which is the other part that nobody talks about, right? I mean, they haven't written any of this legislation or done anything in such a way as to streamline the judicial review process for all of this stuff, right?

And so they could be locked in the courts for all time. And, you know, the cynical among us might say, well, wasn't that the plan all along, right? Oh, we never really intended to get anything built. We'll say the conservatives. They just knew they'd be locked in the courts. I am, if we put on our good faith hat, we say, okay, we have all of us, like, you know, have heard from these companies and resource development projects that have. a ton of buy-in from First Nations. Maybe they're not the big, major, national things,

but they are small things that can make a meaningful difference, one, to the economic health of communities, two, to Canada's natural resources exports. And those things are the things that they could get done more quickly if they take this approach. So we have to go from the macro-thinking about these projects, maybe to a million little micro ones

that could make a real difference to the economy. Still waiting in line? Again? That's time you'll never get back. Save time and money with Stamps.com. Over 4 million businesses have skipped the line with Stamps.com. Join them to save up to 90% off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now. Print postage for certified mail, registered mail, and packages in seconds.

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And we had the head of the International Energy Agency with us here in studio last week. One of the things that Fatibiro said is that the world, in his words, the world needs Canadian energy badly. But he was worried or concerned that the way that he kind of described that the multi-layered governance system in this country could be a barrier. And that Canada might miss its moment in terms of providing that energy. What are the risks and the rewards of trying to speed up a project like this? I mean, the risks are multiple. You know, you run the risk of doing serious environmental damage. You run the risk of fracturing the consensus about other projects.

That's something, of course, that David E.B. has brought up a lot. The idea that there is a consensus, a bunch of, you know, investment-ready projects and pushing through a Bichstumin pipeline could destroy that consensus. That said, you know, the world does need a lot more Canadian energy. You know, we're seeing it, obviously, because of the war in Iran. but there are a lot of European countries who would much more likely would much more willingly buy Canadian energy than have to rely on Russian energy, which is this situation that they're often in now. So, you know, there is a diplomatic international element of this, not just a commerce element, but the idea that selling what we have to offer, not getting in our own way in the efforts to do that. that can make us better international partners to countries around the world. I mean, there are countries across Asia that are looking at, you know, widespread fuel rationing,

jet fuel shortages, all of that. And Canada can help, not immediately, but we can help in the long term of that, you know, as long as we don't spend another 10 years not building things. Aaron, just final word on this point. And it goes back to what we heard from the Premier of Alberta, Daniel Smith at the beginning, which is that she said Albertans are looking for signs that this country can work. You have a national unity issue that is simmering there. The petition that is trying to push for a separatist vote in the fall, goes in with 300,000 plus signatures.

What sort of pressure does that put on the prime minister here? Yeah, I think it puts a significant amount of pressure on him because the pipeline is going to be viewed in that way, right? If a pipeline happens, it's a, you know, a victory for Canada. it's proof that Canada can work. If a pipeline doesn't happen, then it potentially reinforces all of those arguments that separatists in Alberta have been making. I think that's altogether too much emphasis to put on a single project,

Luis Arbor, former Supreme Court Justice, who's got a glittering career here in Canada and around the world. There were people, Ryan, who were calling for a Western Canadian, perhaps somebody specifically in Alberta to be appointed to Rita Hall. What sort of message do you think the Prime Minister was sending in picking Louise Arbor? You know, I think he was looking for a pick that was safe. You know, I understand the push for a Western Canadian governor general, an Alberta governor general. But Alberta isn't the only province talking about leaving the country right now. So there's lots of reasons to pick someone from Montreal as well. And I would say, you know, the last two governor generals, let's be frank, were problems in some way, political problems.

Julie Paiet, for a variety of reasons that were well reported. And then Mary Mae Simon was an excellent governor general, but didn't speak French. And while she was bilingual with a nooktuk. And that was, I think, a very important symbol. I think it was also a symbol that she didn't speak French and she got the job anyways. And I think there are people in Quebec who were bothered by that. And so I think, you know, in this instance, Mark Carney went with the safe pick. Louise Arbor's resume and reputation is Sterling.

She is fully and completely bilingual. She is not going to be a political problem, probably, for the Carney government. She was a safe pick. Steph, do you want to pick up on that to Ryan's point? Mary Simon was bilingual in English and in Noctitut, but did not speak fluent French, was learning French over the time that she was Governor General, but that created a number of political headaches for the Prime Minister's office. And so what is the message that that office is sending and picking Louise Arbor? You can take it sort of a step back and look at, again, the juxtaposition between Mr. Cros. Carney and Justin Trudeau who picked Mary Simon, right? So Justin Trudeau made Indigenous reconciliation. I think it'll end up potentially being one of his legacies as Prime Minister. And Mary Simon very much became the face of that. She seized that issue. That was what

drove her mandate. And there were a lot of positives, I think, in that for the country. And the French was a significant weakness. In Mr. Carney's decision with Luis Abouar, you almost can see a knock-on of his Davos speech. And talking about... the need for the respect of the rule of law. And he has taken someone who has built her entire career, her entire life, has been devoted to the cause of upholding the rule of law. And when you look at what is the governor general, right, is the oldest continuous institution in this country. It is meant to signify the unbroken tradition I could go on and wax eloquent. But the point, I think, from Mr. Carney, is choosing someone who speaks to that, that institutionalism, that

that makes us our own country, that thing that defines our sovereignty, and that is encapsulated in the personage of Louise en Bour. Is it great that she's from Quebec and speaks fluent French? Absolutely, that's great. But more broadly, I think that's what he's looking for, is a symbol of stability, and certainly in her career, she presents that arc. We have just a few minutes left. Steph, why don't you kind of help us wrap things up here, in part by talking about what the prime Minister needs to do. There's this couple week break and then a problem at his back for this one last sitting before they rise for the summer. What is the Prime Minister under pressure to to accomplish before the summer? Tangible action. Something needs to be done that is tangible that

he can take to Canadians. Mr. Carney is going to be now moving in, edging ever closer into the second year, I suppose, of his mandate. He now has a majority government. I would anticipate some clearing of the decks before the House breaks for the summer. And then, you you come back in September with perhaps a new front bench, perhaps you have new staff in your office, perhaps, you know, you're signaling, okay, now we're really moving ahead. And he is going to forever be deviled, as we have talked about so many times, Matt, about not always looking like he's 30,000 feet above every Canadian's everyday life. And he can pick, do big things like pick Louise Arbour, but for the everyday, you know, folks who are just trying to make lunch,

get out the door, get to work. He needs to start delivering a bit more tangible to them. Ryan? Yeah, I mean, I think he has to, I definitely think he has to show tangible results. I also think he has to recalibrate. He has to think about what he wants to do now that he has the time.

This was a government that was in a minority situation. Minority situations are always running on borrowed time. And he has to think about what he wants to do now that he's not running on borrowed time. our time. He has to make sure that he keeps every liberal in the tent, which some of these environmental moves might jeopardize, as well as some of his moves on, you know, social policy. He's got big issues ahead with health care, with medical assistance and dying, with child care, all sorts of agreements that have to be renewed. So, you know, before the threat was from without,

now the threat for the next few years is going to be from within. It's going to be from a liberal MP who decides I'm tired of moving to the center. So that's going to be his challenge, I think. Aaron, we just have a minute left and we haven't even talked about Kusma, which is, I mean, the deadline is the 1st of July. It continues, but that's the big giant target, presumably. What does he need to show getting closer to that? I mean, it's hard to know what you need to show because it's hard to know where these negotiations are going or how much longer they're going to go on for. I think he needs to sort of, I mean, deal with the idea if they are kind of trying to.

to play this out and not rush into anything, I think he's going to have to deal with the impacts of that and the hardship that people are going to face in certain sectors. And I think he's going to have to kind of draw some, you know, kind of arguments out of exactly where he's going on these negotiations. But I think the biggest, I mean, it's hard to imagine that there's something bigger than Kuzma, but I do think the biggest thing to come back to where we started the conversation is that potential referendum in October. I don't think there's anything bigger. for him to get ready for than the possibility of a sovereignty referendum in Alberta. And I think that is the big focus he has to have over the next six months.

I've let you go. But do you expect him, the prime minister, to put that Captain Canada cape around his neck? It's hard to know because, like, it's, you know, he will say I'm from Alberta, but I suspect you would rather have someone from Alberta leading the federalist cause. And so how a prime minister engages with that, I think, is a very big question for him to answer and something he's going to have to put a lot of thought into. We will talk more about that as it gets closer. In the meantime, thank you all for this for this morning.

Thanks. Thank you. Thank you. Aaron Wary, senior reporter with the CBC's Parliamentary Bureau. Stephanie Levitts is a senior reporter in the Globe and Mail's Ottawa Bureau, and Ryan Tomlty, a political reporter with the Toronto Star. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway.

Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.