Trump Reportedly Weighs War Exit; US Fuel Prices Soar

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Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Alexis Christophers. Here are the stories we're following today. Alexis, the first full month of the war with Iran is coming to a close, and President Trump is ramping up threats, even as he considers his options. The Wall Street Journal is reporting the president has told aides he is willing to end the U.S. campaign against Tehran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The report says the concern is that a mission to pry open the choke point could extend the conflict beyond the president's four-to-six-week timeline. House. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says President Trump still wants a deal with Iran. The president is focused on achieving the objectives of Operation Epic Fury with respect to forces that are on the ground in the Middle East. It's the job of the Pentagon to create maximum optionality for the commander in chief. It does not mean the president has made any additional decisions. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt at the White House and we get more from Bloomberg's Jumana Bersetchi in Dubai. To be clear, this has not come from President Trump himself. This is reporting in the Wall Street Journal. And actually the latest from President Trump is a true social post that he put up yesterday, suggesting that they are in discussions with a more, quote, unquote, reasonable regime in Iran, that a deal will be probably reached shortly. After which, and then he says, if this rate is not immediately open for business, we will conclude our state in Iran by blowing up an obliterating power plants, oil wells, and Karg Island. Bloomberg's Gemana Bersetschi reports in the meantime, an Iranian drone struck a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker docked in Dubai early this morning. Kuwait's state-run oil producer says the Alsalmi was in an area packed with ships waiting to leave the Persian Gulf. It says the strike damaged the hull and started a fire, but no oil was leaked and all 24 crew members are safe. And Nathan, Annel. say if Iran ends up taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will be a major military miscalculation by the U.S. Paul Wallace is managing editor for the Middle East for Bloomberg. It would be very difficult to argue that it's not a strategic disaster for the U.S. This is a waterway choke point that was obviously very much open before this war started. And if the U.S. ends this war, having lost control. over that, over that straight to Iran, that's, that will go down badly in like a major strategic error. Bloomberg News managing editor Paul Wallace says Iran would take in billions of dollars if it were able to take control of the straight. And Alexis gas prices in this country have officially topped $4 a gallon. AAA says the nationwide average retail price for regular unleaded roast almost 402, the highest since August of 2022. One energy consultant warns that oil will skyrocket even further if the war goes on. The prices will go through the roof. It doesn't matter what President Trump says. What is going through the roof? Are we looking at $200 oil? We're looking at 151 and 200 and maybe even more than 200. Beyond eight weeks, it could go anywhere. Chairman Emeritus Faradun Feshireaki of FGEE NECCA made those comments to Bloomberg's Husland Amin. A new United Nations study finds the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran could wipe out nearly $200 billion worth of economic growth across the Middle East. The report says the overall loss could wind up costing some 3.6 million jobs and push as many as 4 million people into poverty.

No, Alexis Fed's chair, Jerome Powell says it's too soon to know what kind of economic impact will come from the war. Speaking at Harvard University in remarks heard live here on Bloomberg, Jerome Powell said the central bank can afford to wait out the crisis. You know, it's one of those times where you get a series of supply shocks, first the pandemic, then the much smaller one from tariffs, and then we're getting now an energy shock. No one knows how big it will be. It's way too early to know. As I mentioned, we do think our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see. Fed Chair Jerome Powell says the labor market remains challenged, but the economy remains dynamic and productive. We now turn to the markets, Nathan, where futures are higher on that Wall Street Journal report that President Trump had signaled he was willing to end the military campaign against Iran. Checking futures right now, S&P futures up nearly 1%. Dow futures now up 444 points with NASDAQ futures, climbing 205 points. But it has not been a good one for the Bulls as we close. out the first quarter. Rob Hayworth is Senior Investment Strategy Director at U.S. Bank Asset Management. It's been challenging because there hasn't really been any place to hide. The one place we liked. To start the month that has actually worked out for us a little bit is global infrastructure with master limited partnerships in that component doing fairly well. But otherwise, unless you owned energy this quarter, there's not been a lot of places to hide. U.S. Bank asset management's Rob Hayworth. So far this year, the Dow is down almost 6%, the S&P 500, off by 7.3%, and the NASDAQ down 10.5%. Alexis, we may be closing in on a deal in the food industry. The UK's Unilever says talks to sell most of its food business to McCormick are advanced. and could be announced later today. Maker of Hellman's mayonnaise would offload most of its food unit, excluding some parts like its operations in India, for $15.7 billion in cash up front and the rest in McCormick stock. Unilever is prioritizing its personal care and beauty divisions, which include brands like Dove Soap. Last year, it spun off its ice cream division, which included the Ben and Jerry's brand. I remember that. And a programming note, Nathan, markets may close on Fridays, but the world does not. That's why we're bringing you a new live radio and TV show. Bloomberg this weekend is looking beyond the daily headlines to the bigger themes driving politics, business, and culture. Join David Gura, Christina Rafini and Lisa Mateo for smart conversations and in-depth interviews that help make sense of the week that's been and what comes next. Get Bloomberg this weekend live, Saturdays and Sundays from 7 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg Radio TV and the Bloomberg Business app.

Time now for a look at some of the other stories, making news in New York and around the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker Carlson. Good morning, John. And good morning, Alexis. The head of the FCC, under fire from both Democrats and Republicans. Let's get more from Bloomberg's Matt Piper. The ranking members of the Senate Commerce Committee questioned the head of the Federal Communications Commission, criticizing his approval of Next Star's merger with Tegna without a vote of the full commission. Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Maria Cantwell jointly told FCC Chair Brendan Carr that he improperly allowed agency staff to greenlight the merger. According to a copy of the letter reviewed by Bloomberg, the merger involved waiving major anti-consolidation rules. The senators say significant questions of policy must be addressed by the full FCC in a vote. Matt Piper, Bloomberg Radio. TSA workers speaking out after receiving their first paychecks in more than a month. Agent and union leader Cameron Cocham says they're still struggling to keep up. It's been nice that we got these paychecks, but at the end of the day, you know, we are still going to be behind with our, you know, late fees and all these different things. The continuing DHS shutdown has lent to mass resignations and a record number of sick calls at airport lines still persist. Zohran Mamdani was elected mayor of New York City in part on a promise of free child care, and now the city has announced its first free child care pilot program for municipal workers. A $10 million renovation project currently underway to build a 4,000 square foot child care facility in the city's municipal building. It's expected to be completed this fall and serve about 40 children. Global News 24 hours a day. Whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm John Tucker Carlson. This is Bloomberg, Alexis. Thanks, John. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update, and for that we bring in John Stash Hour. It happens fairly off for the NCAA women's tournament. The best teams prevail. So when they get together Friday and Phoenix to start the women's final four, it'll be the four one seeds, undefeated Yukon, joined by UCLA, Texas and South Carolina. The Longhorns obliterated Michigan 77 to 41. The Gamecox beat TCU 7852. This will be their sixth rate, final four. NFL owners have awarded the Super Bowl in... 2019 to Las Vegas. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this. Amazon Health AI presents painful thoughts. Why did I search the internet for answers to my cold sore problem? Now I'm stuck down a rabbit hole filled with images of alarmingly graphic sores in various stages of ooze. I can clear my search history. But I can never unsee that. Don't go down the rabbit hole. Amazon Health AI gets you the right care fast. Health care just got less painful.

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Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on SiriusXM, and around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager coming to the end of the first full month of the war with Iran. President Trump may be weighing his options for an exit. The Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that the president is considering winding down the U.S. fight, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Here's White House Press Secretary. Karoline Leavitt. The president, commander in chief, the Pentagon has always stated four to six weeks estimated timeline for Operation Epic Fury. We're on day 30 today. So again, you do the math. It was White House spokesman Karoline Leavitt in comments heard live on Bloomberg Radio. Joining us this morning from Jerusalem is Bloomberg News reporter Dan Williams. So Dan, we have this Wall Street Journal report coming after the president renewed his threats to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure if it doesn't reopen the strait. What do we know this morning? Good morning. Good morning. Very little. We do know the president is voluble. We know he's unusually available, available to members of the press who managed to reach him on the phone. We know that much of what he says is contradictory, sometimes within the same day. There is some evidence that this has been in the past an effort to create successfully tactical smoke screens, perhaps to calm markets, perhaps to muster support. As you noted, his comments about potentially... making do with US achievements, US and Israeli achievements in this war, despite Iran's de facto control of Hormuz, that has very much energized, or should we say, worried many in the Middle East. It could be an effort to bring Arab partners militarily into this fight. However, it is worth remembering, and one can easily find his opening speech, his statements. on February 28th when this war began. There is no mention of Hormuz there among the US objectives in this war. The objectives, as stated, is to destroy, counteract imminent threats by Iran to the United States, by demolishing its nuclear program and its missile program, and its navy. The Americans are sticking to what they say is success in this matter. The president has said previously that just 3%. of US petroleum products come through Hormuz. That's as opposed to the fact that the Hormuz Strait accounts for around 20% of energy for the rest of the world. So it would appear that the United States did not set out looking at a change in Hormuz. It did not set out looking to improve its energy status given this war. And I imagine, by his own account, Trump can walk away. saying that he satisfied his own objectives. That is not something that his partners in the Middle East would agree with. Certainly Iran would hold up a profitable, lucrative de facto control of Hormuz as a result of this war as a major strategic success. So I think time will tell in the coming days. We already know that the US are mustering ground forces for potential threatened actions on the ground in Iran, including potentially a takeover of Harga Island.

which is of great importance to the Iranians in terms of energy output. So we will find out very soon whether that was yet more smokescreen, whether the rubber will now hit the road in terms of a ground operation by the Americans to try to take the fight to the enemy and win this, at least when it comes to freeing up the whole move straight. Well, where would this potentially leave Israel, those objectives, those early objectives you mentioned, do they line up with Israel's objectives? I think they do. We have the Israeli Prime Minister saying in a Newsmax interview yesterday that the Israelis have achieved or passed beyond their halfway point of this war. The Israeli military this morning saying it can continue sustaining those operations in Iran for weeks. It has the targets remaining for that. Keep in mind that we are now in week five of a war that the partners, the allies said from the outset, could last four to six weeks. We're still within... the framework, the time envelope they gave from the outset. And it could well be that the Israelis who apparently this week, in fact in these very hours are shifting targets away from what they describe as vital defense industry targets in Iran toward economic targets are now looking at second tier targets, basically destroying whatever they can against an enemy of almost five decades standing before Trump. calls an end to this war. If he does call an end to this war, keep in mind there may be parity on the ground or in the air in terms of the military mission sharing, but it's clear that it's the United States which calls the shots of this war quite literally and also figuratively in terms of when it will end. Should it end in Iran, the Israelis will still have their hands full with a second front in Lebanon against Iran's allies in Hezbollah. that is likely to continue, and that's likely to be a preoccupation of Israel, no matter what happens in Iran. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning, starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street Time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York. Bloomberg 991 in Washington, Bloomberg 929 in Boston, and nationwide on Sirius XM Channel 121. Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg business app now. with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces. And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Alexis Christophores. And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

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