6/2/26: Trump Says Everyone Hates Israel, Anthropic Pushes For IPO, Trump Hesitant On JD 2028
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Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. Bro show people live for the pound. It's good to see you, Ryan. Thank you very much for joining me here on this great Tuesday. Oh, my God. What a difficult job setting up the elements. Iran.
We're going to start with Iran, an explosive, alleged new, phone call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu where he cusses him out. And what is it, what else does he say? He cusses him out. He says, I saved you. Everybody hates Israel. All of this allegedly. What the F are you doing? Yeah, what the fuck are you doing? Allegedly, allegedly, Benjamin Netanyahu and his proxies are denying. And all of this, of course, on the heels of this fire that from the Israeli side onto Lebanon after some Hezbollah rockets over Israel. Trump says, allegedly it's all over. We'll see a little bit about that in terms of the ceasefire. We're going to talk about AI Anthropic filing for its IPO. Their stocks skyrocketing trillion dollar
valuations. Stock markets are literally at all-time highs. Meanwhile, the Florida Attorney General actually suing Open AI for harm to children. And we're basically just going to spend some time on this. The backbone of the entire U.S. economy is AI, I guess. Hope it works out. And I guess hope it doesn't work out. Kind of screwed either way. I'm going to talk about JD Vance. There's a New New York Times story saying Trump is hesitant on him being the 2028, fund the frontrunner asking and polling some people as Marco Rubio Stock apparently is rising behind the scenes. Dave Rubin, we just, we had to do it. I mean, we don't usually do these types of segments. No, that's true. We do. But, you know, he traveled to
the Jubilee set. He did surrounded. Right before he went on Surrounded, there was actually a mashup of all of his failed predictions on the Iran War. And it's one of the rare cases of these, like, 20-year-olds, just absolutely schooling this dude to its face. It's just fun. Let's all revel in it together. Good forward to that one. And then finally, David Dayan of the American Prospect. He lives in California. He's going to join us, actually here in studio.
We're going to break down the California governor's race and then the L.A. mayor's race, the two highest-profile race. in their jungle primary system, which starts today. But, right, I believe we're not going to know the results for quite some time because of the mail-in ballots and the way that things get tabulated. And we'll see. And I'll probe Dane about some of the key House races out there, which reminds me, are there no House Republican contests other than Thomas Massie? I can't think of one.
I haven't heard of which, well, Troy, there are a few, like, little ones. Democrats have half dozen races around the country and are growing, like, where there's a real contest, like, for the direction of the party. It doesn't seem like that's happening. No, it's all just about Trump. right now in terms of the Trump endorsement. There's a few. Because they all vote with Trump, so what's the... Exactly. So there's really nothing to be said. Part of why it's so boring,
having even really spent that much time on it. Thank you to everybody who has been subscribing to the show, breaking points.com. This is going to be a big month for us. Yesterday was actually a five-year anniversary. We didn't even mention it. So here we go, five years here of breaking points. Now we have Ryan, we have Emily. We have a new big thing launching this month. So you're going to want to get in for that. Breaking Points.com become a premium subscriber.
If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe. And if you're listening to this is a podcast, please share an episode with a friend. It really helps other people find the show or rate us five stars. But let's go ahead and start with the alleged big bus phone call. Let's put it up here on the screen from Mark Caputo and Barack Ravid, the dynamic duo over at Axios. What the fuck are you doing? Trump lit into Benjamin Netanyahu over the Lebanon bombing. You are fucking crazy.
You'd be in prison if it worked for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this. Now, Ryan, this allegedly happened in a Trump Benjamin Netanyahu phone call yesterday afternoon. Okay? It came on the heels of that dramatic announcement from Benjamin Netanyahu that they will be expanding their operation in Lebanon to include issuing an evacuation order in the Da'eah district of Beirut. And so what it signaled was renewed in massive strikes on the Lebanese capital, all in the midst of these alleged ceasefire negotiations and things that had been happening.
We did report yesterday that there was some ceasefire talk and all of that going on. Trump, by the way, has now said that Hezbollah has agreed. We'll get to that here in a second. But let's throw the next element up there on the screen just to show you what the reaction is like from Neocom. cons here in Washington, Mark Levin, saying that the leak in Axios was a violation of federal law and provided support to the Iranian regime and its Hezbollah proxy. Whomever leaked that story to Barack Ravid at Axios did a grace disservice to our country, to our president, to Israel, to Israel's prime minister. Wow, to Israel's prime minister. It must be treasonous, right?
The Iranian regime will benefit from that leak, viewing us as weak, desperate for a deal. Yes, true. Even coming to Hezbollah's defense, the Israeli people, will be furious. The missiles are aimed at them, not Washington, for 100 other reasons, what was thought to be a devastating political hit in that in Yahoo by the leakers, about a private phone call has done much damage to us in our military and our diplomatic strategy. If the leakers or others believe Israel should abandon its survival, for some deal, they will have a hard lesson to learn. If the substance of the call is accurate, it is bad enough in my view. You know, I mean, what I think is just really shocking,
Ryan, is in any way that this phone call where he curses him out is indicative of real policy. Right. We have seen this time and time and time again from five American presidents now who curse Benjamin Netanyahu in private, sometimes they even curse them in public. And yet, when it comes time for the dollars, for the bombs, for the Iron Dome, and for the fad, man, it sure does seem like they get every single thing that they want, doesn't it? Yeah, right. We can talk about, like, how.
it happened, what precise words he might have used, the severity of his anger, the number of cuss words he threw at him. But you're right, like, what matters is what's on the ground. And that is that Trump is still stuck in, and I hate the glaze, so Professor Pate, but stuck in that escalation trap. He's stuck right in there. And, okay, so, you know, it does look like he got him to not bomb Beirut right now, which, you know, probably saved him. He's stuck in hundreds of lives in the you know for the for now for the near term they've killed Israel has killed thousands of people in in Lebanon in southern Lebanon they continue to encroach forward they they've pushed across the Latani River at this point and you know the the
agreement that Benjamin Netanyahu is saying he's reached is that okay well we won't shoot at them as long as Hezboa doesn't shoot inside Israel what Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be trying to do is lock in the kind of territorial gains that they have made to this point to say like, okay, now we're, we're everywhere that we are, you can't shoot your FPV drones at us anymore. You can't attack us. We're just claiming all of this. Right. And Hezbo is like, no, no, no, no. Here's an idea. Like, leave Lebanon. Like, go back to Israel. If you don't want us to shoot at you in Lebanon, don't be in Lebanon anymore. And they are taking significant casualties. Like, yesterday they took that stupid Beaufort Crusader Castle or like took it a couple days ago. Yeah, we cover that.
And then yesterday, it looks like three Israelis were killed with FPV drone attacks in that castle, or right outside of that castle. And according to my colleague, Maz, what Hezbo was saying is that because Israel celebrated their conquest of this crusader castle and put up videos, Hezbo was able to study exactly where they were and just quickly sent a drone swarm and killed several of them. And it's also a pointless fort to be holding. Right. Which Griffin told me there's actually a film from like 2007 about the futility of taking the last time. The same castle.
It's almost like these religious crusader wars don't usually have a point and don't particularly work out for anybody. I guess for the people who are in charge. We'll get a sequel. We'll get a sequel of that film. Hopefully. Let's put this next one up here on the screen. Benjamin Netanyahu's proxy Amit Seagal of Israel says,
According to a very senior official on the PM's team, I wonder who that is, the late-night Benjamin Netanyahu call. The access report is inaccurate. Trump did not make personal remarks about jail or claim Benjamin Netanyahu is hated globally. Instead, he focused on the conflicting social media posts. Trump fell Benjamin Netanyahu implied that the war was continuing at full intensity, while Benjamin Netanyahu felt Trump implied a total ceasefire. Trump did note that defending Israel's global position is difficult and breeds hatred. Ultimately, the call ended with an understanding. Israel will hold off on striking Beirut as long as it's not attacked within its own borders. So that last part actually makes a lot of sense because what Benjamin Netanyahu currently has been trying to do is saying that every time Israelis who are occupying southern Lebanon, IDF soldiers get attacked, that is then itself a pretext. However, remember, they are occupying almost half of the entire country, not just occupying saying we're not leaving. Like you don't take cats. You can't be here. You have to leave. Like literally, I mean, the craziest thing, I think you guys reported this, was when they were contacting, what was it, Sunni and Christian families and being like, hey, if you've got any Shia
people, they got to go. Right, yeah, Christian villages. Yeah, going to the Christian villages, any Shia residents, they have to go. And if you shelter them, we're going to kill you. They're checking the attics. Wow. Yeah, it's like, bro. Bro. Really? Yeah, exactly. Very, right. You can draw the historical parallel there for yourself. Let's put A1 up here on the screen. This is Trump's readout of the call. I had a very productive call with Benjamin Netanyahu. There will be no troops going to Beirut. Any troops that are on their way have already turned back, which, by the way, was a real breaking news because that's not even originally what was being told. They said they were going to bomb them. We didn't know that they were going to
Beirut. I mean, they may be, though. They may have actually been on their way. Likewise, through highly placed representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah. They agreed that all shooting will stop that Israel will not attack them and they will not attack Israel. Remember, Hezbollah has already come out and said, no, that's not true. We will definitely attack Israelis who are in Lebanon. In terms of striking Israel, sure, if they don't hit Da'ia in Beirut, then yeah, we won't hit them in Israel. But in the interim war in Lebanon is still on. Let's put A2 up here on the screen just to show you some of the video, Ryan. It came out in the Lebanese city of Tyre. I apologize from saying these incorrectly.
Several buildings, including a hospital, was struck. I know there were multiple casualties that were reported. So, yeah, you can see, I mean, this was literally just yesterday in terms of the Israeli strikes that were on this city, allegedly, again, always a Hezbollah stronghold. So you can see why in Lebanon you have already had, what, hundreds of thousands of people displaced, IDF soldiers occupying a significant part of the country issuing evacuation orders, which thousands
actually abided by in the Daiga district of Beirut. They're like, okay, hey, we got to go. They're about to level this place. Now, Trump did hold back on those strikes. However, we all know it's just a matter of time before anything like that happens again. Let's put A3 up here on the screen. This seems to have been the precipitating event behind Trump calling off the strikes and calling Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran had suspended all diplomatic communication and messages with the U.S. According to Iranian state media, the decision was reportedly due to Iranian opposition to the Israeli strikes against Hezbollah. And so, again, to bring it back, I think, to Professor Pape's analysis here on the show,
he said two things. First, he has his framework of the escalation trap. But the second was about how Iran has turned into a world power. And what you have watched now is this great strategic folly of Israel. Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and over the nuclear issue and the ability to not surrender to the United States has enabled them to use the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic talks, which Trump desperately, desperately wants, as leverage to obtain restraint on Israeli action in Lebanon.
And so whenever they say, hey, we're pulling out of the deal or we're suspending all talks, if these strikes are going to continue, Trump immediately has to pick up the phone and restrain Israel. First of all, it shows why this is probably a doomed effort in the long run because Israel is there and constantly wants to be pushing these things. But it demonstrates Iranian veto power. And this is really what Mark Levin and others are freaking out about, is that for them, it's intolerable because they created this monster with Iran able to shut the street of Hormuz, able to have all this leverage in diplomatic talks, while also having literal Israeli action, even yes, extreme Israeli action, be restrained. I'm not going to say they haven't
one, you know, in the near term with all their occupation. But the fact that Iran has that ability, literally, to just come in and say, nope, the entire thing is off if this continues. And then the president has to pick up the phone and call them only demonstrates their power in these negotiations. Yes, absolutely. That's the key point. Iran said, as a result of all of these Israeli attacks on Lebanon, we are cutting off contact with. the American mediators, the mediators between us and the United States. And Trump immediately called... Immediately. Yes. That is the key point. But Trump does not seem to want to take that to the next step. Exactly. Which is, okay, if that is genuinely the power relationship that exists
here at this moment, certainly given oil prices and the global economy, like approaching freefall, then I need to do something about this. He gets that. But the something he just can't. can't get himself to it because there's just no way to thread the needle of resolving this without it being utterly humiliating. I mean, I would sign on to some type of thing. I won't make fun of him for two weeks a month. Like, what do you need? You put A4, because this is where I really want your analysis, because it's really complicated. Let's put A4 up here on the screen. The Lebanese embassy issued a statement yesterday. They said, with the framework of the efforts undertaken by the Lebanese state to preserve stability and spare Lebanon,
following communication, etc. Under the proposed arrangement, Israeli strikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut would cease in exchange for Hezbollah refraining from carrying attacks against Israel, with the scope of the ceasefire subsequently being expanded to encompass the entirety of Lebanese territory. So they're claiming that Hezbollah has agreed not only to cease attacks on Israel, but also to cease attacks on all IDF soldiers in Lebanese territory, as a request of the Lebanese government, which again is not Hezbollah, but they have some sort of back channel.
How much faith should we put into this? Because, again, Hezbollah had denied, at least some of this in part. We don't know yet how much of it is true. But could you explain those dynamics of Lebanese government, Hezbollah, the current ceasefire talks? Because it doesn't actually include Ms. Bola. That's what's so confusing. The key line here, and the way it's phrased is with the scope of the ceasefire, subsequently being expanded to encompass the entirety of Lebanese territory. So what that means is
it's going in phases. So first, Israeli strikes on Beirut have to stop, and then Hezbollah strikes on Israel will have to stop. Then some other things have to happen. That's what's left unsaid in between the comma and the width here. And then subsequently, there would be a ceasefire across all of Lebanon. So then that's where the, that's, those are the, that's where the devil resides in between there. What else, what is Hezbo asking for? Um, a full agreement with Iran and that includes Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, which is Iran's demand. Uh-huh. In which case, subsequently not firing within Lebanese territory would make sense because there would be no idea of troops there.
Uh, they've, they withdrew last time. Um, there's, there's, as well is hoping that they will withdraw again. Israel clearly doesn't have any intention of doing so. So this is a very difficult, like difference to bridge here. Yeah, and let's put A5 up there on the screen immediately after his Benjamin Netanyahu call leaked Trump truths. Talks are continuing at a rapid pace with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Thank you for your attention to this matter. And so, look, all of this was market-related because what happened is Benjamin Netanyahu, as we covered yesterday, announced we're going to strike
Beirut. And immediately, you had Iran cutoff talks. So oil spiked. And then, oh, right, that's right. They also threatened the Babel Mendeb straight. Trump picks up the phone. But in the meantime, Brent crude surges by 8% stock futures drop. After the Trump phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu leaks and his true social post goes up, then the stock futures went up. And I believe some oil went down. But let's not forget. I mean, what's the Brent crude currently at? Let's see. $93 a barrel. I mean, it's still high. And if I were to look at gas prices nationally, it's still $4.29 a gallon.
And diesel is still sitting around $5.43 a gallon, which is only $0.40 or so off of the all-time high back in 2022. All of this together, it's not like anything is really happening. I mean, last week. Inventories and strategic reserves, like depleted. Yeah, yesterday, I believe that the SPR. will reach its lowest level ever by next week. Total oil inventory is near record lows. We were going to cover this yesterday.
The Chevron CEO was talking about how it's basically inevitable for oil to go to 140, 150 a barrel, which to translate it to gas terms is roughly $6 a gallon, simply because he's like, look, we don't have any more oil. It's like we don't have to oil. It's like... You want it, you got to pay. Yeah, he's like, somebody's going to have to pay for it. It's a global commodity.
The straits close. Japan, Korea. You have multiple months now where, you know, it takes a long time for these tankers to move across the ocean. So a lot of the orders place in the middle of the war. Some of them are already just now either arriving here or are on their way to their current destination. And, you know, it takes a while for all of this stuff too empty. But the bills come and do, and I mean, basically already do with gas at 429 a gallon. Let's go to A6 here from Trump. This was also his immediate reaction. By the way, just to show you how flailing this entire thing. When the news initially broke that Iran was going to cut off talks, he told this to an NBC news reporter.
I think we've been talking too much, if you want to know the truth. I think going silent would be very good, and that could be for a long time. It doesn't mean we're going to go and start dropping bombs all there. We'll just go silent. We'll keep the blockade. Blockade is a piece of steel. I think I can wait as long as they want.
They're losing a fortune. The Art of the Deal author, he said, also seem to have been some grudging respect for negotiators. When I first asked about reports or suspending talks, quote, it's an appropriate thing to say because they're better negotiators than they are fighters. You know, I mean, Trump is beginning. Pretty good fighters too, apparently.
Yeah, not bad. I think what they are seeing is the futility of this Gordian knot that they are in. He can either buckle or he can escalate. And that's the escalation trap, ultimately. In the meantime, they're trying to have everything half-ass. And even just with Israel, can we all ruminate for a second that, you know, the Titanic phone call is over, Israeli strikes on Beirut, not the occupation of half of the country, which they claim will never be given back to the residents ever again. They literally say it. They, like, what do they say about Lebanon, southern Lebanon?
They're like, you will never return. You will literally never return. They just say it out loud. And that's the ceasefire position. If anything, by the way, the Hezbollah and Iran and all of them not willing to fight while half of their country is occupied is nuts, I mean, from their perspective. And it's also crazy that the sticking point between two countries, the United States and Iran, when it comes to reaching a deal, is what Israel wants to do in Lebanon. Like, if you just came to this cold, you'd be like, well, that sounds like a separate thing because the war is between the United States and Iran is. We're told, and it's like anti-Semitic to say anything else.
So then why is it being hung up by this other conflict that doesn't have anything to do with us? Yeah. If you were to say, hey, we could all pay less in gas and we can negotiate bilaterally tomorrow. But Israel just has to withdraw from a country, which is literally not theirs. Everyone would be like, okay. Yeah, yeah, cool. The only people who wouldn't sign that deal are the Israelis, right? Who are for them intolerable.
Yeah, we're like, okay, cool, yeah, fine. We should still reach a deal with Iran. Yeah, we could just reach a deal with Iran. You guys just have to leave Lebanon. You know, it sucks for you. And if not, Iran can deal with it. It's not really a problem. Exactly.
But ultimately, that's why, you know, maybe we can edit this in posts. I've just been thinking about this all day. So what are my friends sent it to me? This is the mindset of Mark Levin, who basically is a traitor to the United States for doing something like this. We will soon celebrate the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. We're off to a good start, Ryan. The declaration was in essence a declaration of war against the most powerful military force on earth, the British Empire.
He ruminates on the patriotism. Every delegate who signed that document had signed their own death warrant. Here's where it gets good. Let us remember this when we listen to the debates about whether or not we should defeat the Iranian regime. So we have a full paragraph here, which is all about the courage of the American Revolution and how much everything was on the line. and now he goes, all the arguments and even excuses against it, despite 47 years of its killing, maiming, thousands of our fellow countrymen, 47 years of lies and deceit, to decades of developing nuclear and missile technology to obliterate our nation and a far more dangerous and biological
agenda than that of the British monarchy. Yet, George Washington and the brave founders of our country personally risked everything. Ultimately, the British forces surrenders. The Iranian regime will never surrender. They will never abide by a deal any more than they have abided by a cease I am mindful, only 35% of colonists supported war with Britain. My view may be similarly be a minority view today. I hope not, but if it is, so be it. So he links the pluckiness and the courage of the founders of the American Revolution to his support for the war with Iran, which he now says is unpopular by his own view,
but it's just of a cause as the American founding was. Imagine the psychology of that. The irony, of course, which I bet a bunch of viewers have picked up on, is that the Iranian revolutionaries were inspired by the American revolutionaries. We both threw off the British. Like the Iranians threw off the British. Like the Shah was an American and British puppet. Like, we installed the Shah because Iran had nationalized British petroleum, like a British oil company. And the Brits wanted us to take it back for them.
And so then the Iranian revolution threw them back off. And I don't even that powerful. In retrospect, when you read it, you're like, why do we do this? Yeah, why do we do this? They wanted to be our allies. They were a democratic government. They just wanted, like, control over their oil resources, which is a completely reasonable thing to want. And we're not talking about 1912 or when the British Empire is at its peak.
We're talking about, what is, 1950. Yeah, and they were already getting cooked in the Suez. They were on their way out. What are we doing? Like, why are we fighting for these people? Yeah. So, yes, there are parallels to the American Revolution. and the overthrow of the British monarchy.
But it doesn't go in the direction that... It's just, I mean, reading this and seeing, I mean, but you could only read this and say, and to compare support for the American Revolution, to support for war with Iran, which is existential in no way whatsoever for the United States, but is existential for one country to Israel, you should ask, okay, who are you loyal to?
Literally. Like, if you believe that it's so existential, then that means that you seem to be much more loyal to Israel than to the United States. Because you know what's more existential to the U.S., oh, I don't know, $6 a gallon gasoline, which, by the way, he even says, is not that big of a deal.
So, yeah, he's willing to sacrifice all of you, you know, for his war and to try and tell you that you're just like George Washington if you support it. And that's a level, though, in some ways it's good. If that's how reductive the propaganda has gotten, then it shows how untenable support the war is for itself. Because this is what the Iraq war was like,
and I remember it well. As the Founding Father said, we must always go in search monsters to destroy. I think that's what it said, right? George Washington famously in his farewell address said, we must go abroad in search of monsters to destroy. So well said. All right, let's get to AI.
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Turning now to AI, huge news in the markets. Let's put this up here on the screen. Anthropic has filed to go public in a blockbuster year for IPOs. The filing could put the company behind Claude on a path to go public. this year, they currently, I believe, have just raised a series H, which I didn't even know was possible. Yeah, I'm like, A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H. Okay, so there's eight rounds of funding valuing their company in nearly one trillion
dollars. It also comes on the heels of Sam Altman, Open A-I, Open A-I wanting to IPO, and also SpaceX, which, by the way, SpaceX, we know as a rocket company, but whose current deals that they're inking with Anthropic and others are mostly behind compute and creating companies, which would be able to have chip infrastructure and others, cloud storage, et cetera, for AI. So AI is at the backbone of all of these different things. And I think what is crazy about it is, I've really been thinking a lot about what Derek Thompson said when he was here on our show, is that the simultaneous IPO of Anthropic SpaceX and Open AI all in the same year will create more buildings.
billionaires in a single year than at any time in history. And the distorting effect, in modern history, too, we will have literally hundreds of people worth, I mean, a collective, you know, several trillion dollars very likely just based on their stock valuations. What is that going to do to our society? First of all, in San Francisco, yeah, you're never buying a home. Unless, like, if you're worth a measly 10 million, brother, you bet you're getting your ass to Marin County or something like that. Yeah, right. You're driving, you're driving two hours over the bridge. Slum it up there in Marin. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, sorry. I'm probably wrong. I think Marin is actually really nice. But I'm just coming. This is my limited knowledge of Northern California. It's the most
spectacular place. Oakland. Okay, how about Oakland? Yeah, it's like you're living in a slum in Oakland. If you're worth a mere $10 million, you will never buy a house in San Francisco. That's number one. Number two, the state of California and its politics will become even more billionaire influence than at any time. The number of all podcast copies is skyraising is going to skyrocket. The number of... The number of AI Twitter posts about... Oh, my God.
Lake Tahoe, yeah, it might forget about it. It's just going to turn into even more of a billionaire playground. But to be actually serious, what he was pointing out was the distortionary impact that that will have on politics and political spending will be immense. I mean, almost undescribable. And one of the things that makes that really... dangerous is that all of these people, all of these people will have their wealth directly tied into these AI companies and they will need it to function, which means a couple of things.
Number one is it will become too big to fail. It probably already is, which we'll get into in a little bit, requiring government bailouts and, you know, all kinds of stock manipulation or regulation incentive to keep the companies at the valuations of their need because it's just too much money being sloshed around. But the second thing on that is then it, it's fuses, you know, their political power with this technological power and genuinely, you know, sets the ground. I don't want to be hyperbolic, but for like genuine techno-feudalism. Like that's where things currently seem to be going. Yeah.
We've talked before about the variations in public attitudes in China versus here when it comes to the advent of AI. And in China, people generally have much less anxiety about it and feel like it's going to be deployed, you know, Here in the United States, people feel the opposite, that it's going to lead to enormous numbers of job losses and yawning inequality and just produce a whole bunch of new billionaires and make life much more miserable. And none of this, you know, none of this, I think, is going to disabuse people of that feeling. The only possibility that I can think, well, two possibilities. One is what we'll talk about later with Bernie. And two would be that it runs into a wall of like arithmetic. and that it just, they just can't compete with the Chinese products.
Because they are, their valuation is built on the idea that they are selling something of serious value. The Chinese are basically giving it away. And maybe some, some of the U.S. ones are a little bit better. But if, if it's free versus like super expensive and a little bit better, you're going to go with the free one. It's possible. Yeah, I mean, this is kind of like the Apple and Microsoft debate. Obviously both massively. Anthropics said recently that, you know, they're, you know, they're going to be able to be.
they're really losing a lot of market share to Gemini among the public. And it feels to me like it's becoming similar to how a lot of kind of, you know, if you have a master's degree or something, you have an iPhone. But most normal people have an Android. Is that true? I didn't know that. I mean, I've looked at it. I think it's like 40, 50 or something like that.
Yeah, for a very long time, like the Android's are more of a regular person. I don't know if that's the case. But they're spreading out a little bit. it's becoming normal people are using Gemini because it's it's there right in front of them it's just right there probably already have a gmail account right and it's free to start and like and so that is going to really hurt because claude can't be a trillion dollar company unless it's you know unless you completely block the chinese from competing just difficult to do but maybe they can pull it off and it's somehow not a mass consumer product because it has competition i think they're
point is about the frontier model, you know, with their ability to sell to these enterprise, because that's where they make all the money. They should just say our business model is we're going to hack the Federal Reserve and steal all the money. Did you see that, what was it, some company forgot to set spending limits and they spent half a billion dollars in a single month on Claude? So that's what shows you a little bit about how they're making money. I am interested also. Let's put B2 up here on the screen just to highlight again how, look, look, we're all in. Like, we're beyond all in. So April and May of 2026 is one of the best two-month bull runs in the history of Wall Street. So they show here that you have got January
to February 1975, January, February, 1987. Can't think of anything bad that happened for those years. March to April 09, famously a phenomenal time in American history. April, May 2020. Wow, yeah, who I remember that one. And now April and May of 2026. And actually, in the journal, they write, it suggests the gains will keep coming. However, of course, you know, some sort of crash is inevitable. We just don't know when or where. They write that chip stocks have powered the S&P up 16% just across May and April matched only four other times since 1950. And the index six months later, each time was higher by a median of 17%. However, skeptics remain with those troubled by the sheer scale of the moves. For example, Micron Technology, an Idaho-based
memory chip maker has increased roughly tenfold in value over the past 12 months to a market cap of one trillion. Samsung is up around 465% in South Korea over that period, and a semiconductor index just posted its strongest performance through its first 100 days of any year ever on record. Even some of the companies involved recall the tech bubble era. Intel has tripled to 26 for its first record since 2000, Cisco and Qualcomm have both surged 50%. Many on Wall Street are all riding the wave. And so, look, you know, obviously this is not financial advice or anything like that. But what I do think is that it surges a level of froth and of confidence at the higher levels of the economy. I'm talking about very, very rich people who on paper are worth extraordinary
amounts of money in terms of the gains that they've had. But we've also seen the inverse now in consumer confidence. And I think that's exactly what's putting downward pressure on quality of life. What's interesting, too, is to see the existential risk for a political level. So let's put this one up here, and we can talk about this. The Florida Attorney General is now suing OpenAI, seeking to hold Sam Altman personally liable for alleged harms. The 83-page complaint says that ChatsyPT has helped mass shooters in deadly rampages, driven some people to suicide. The complaint said that the harms are the result of open AIs insatiable quest to win the AI arms race and amass large fortunes. I mean, that's kind of inarguable.
But the big question is about, well, what exactly is his responsibility? And I think this is like a bigger question. It just tells us all there's no regulatory oversight on this whatsoever. They can just do what they want. And Sam Altman was this close to doing pornography, like to doing, literatica and sexy. He only didn't do it, I think, because of some advertiser or business pressure, but one of the reasons they wanted to do it was to get you more hooked on chat GPT, to siphon even that part off of the internet. I mean, their desperate desire is to get everybody to use this thing,
and then not just to use this thing to put all of its data in it, amass all of that knowledge, and then to create frontier models, which will make it so that you don't have to work anymore, or really so that you won't work, and they will do all the work for you and capture all that value, from Anthropic to Open AI, all of these frontier model companies. Like, everything is based on making the human less important in the workplace. They claim otherwise, but what gives it away is every single op-ed and public utterance that they have is just about mass AI job loss. Like, that's the entire thing.
Yes, and if you put a B4, I think this is the key development here. This is comparing public sector transportation infrastructure. spending versus spending on data centers in the United States. And as you see with this chart here, they're now equal. And I'm sure they looked for a bunch of different things to compare, but this is a useful one because this is, you know, roads, bridges, like everything we need to like basically live in a civilized society versus like dirt roads in the backwoods. And it's now equal to data center spending. And I'm trying, I've been doing news for 20 years. I don't remember covering any debate over this, not a presidential level debate. It just happened so quickly. Yeah, not a,
there was, there was no vote in Congress. There was no presidential campaign that was run on, I think our national priority should be building data centers to develop AI. There was no Senate race. where that was even asked it. Yet, we are considered to be a democracy, and yet we made this extraordinarily pivotal decision. Somebody made it because it's happening. But it certainly had nothing to do with democracies. People were like, okay, well, this is,
the business community and the market signals just decided that this is what we could do. okay, that is a system you can have, but that is not self-government. And I think- We're governed by something else. Yeah, I mean, you're effectively governed by disparate market forces, but it's not all that disparate. It's really like 100. Yeah, it's six guys. We're all in the same podcast.
We're all in the same podcast. We're all in the same podcast. We're all in the same podcast. ! Yeah, many of whom are on the same podcast and also work in the government. What I think is really scary, though, is just about their explicit desire and public utterance about how, yeah, there's going to be mass social dislocation and, job loss. And this is actually a big debate right now in Silicon Valley. I like to go on the
TVPN show with my friend John Coogan, and we talk about this all the time. And from their perspective, they believe that a lot of it is marketing, is that the anthropic and Open AI and all them use these talking points as marketing because it shows how transformative their tech is. But at the same time, there's only so many times that the CEOs of the companies themselves can in all seriousness be like half of humans aren't going to work. And Elon Musk being like, by the way, all of you will just get UBI, that you're like, maybe there's something to it. And I've seen researchers and others. We've had so many of them here on the show talk about, no, like, they're not lying to you. They're actually telling the truth because, hey, it makes them phenomenally rich,
but they want to have some level of, you know, they want to prep the ground for what that type of thing is looking like. To the data center point, I mean, and the level of CAPEX spending, that is the only reason why we're not in a full-blown recession. I believe, Canada is actually in a formal recession. One of the reasons they are is they don't have AI. They don't have endropic and open AI. Almost any company which is living in the real world of manufacturing, of goods, of agriculture, of oil, is facing a massive downward pressure.
The only reason we are not, and that stocks are literally at all-time highs, is because Micron and other companies are worth the trillion dollars. If we were any other country in the world, it wouldn't be that way. And I think that that demonstrates, you know, the reliance on this tech. And that's why I kind of said, you're screwed if it doesn't work out because then it's a bubble and then it's dot com all over again. It took, I think it took 13 years to recover the same market top from, yeah, I think it was 2000 and 2013. 13 years for the market to return it, which is insanity for the people who invested at that time. But I think it also shows how if it does work out, well, then yeah, if you're an asset owner, oh, then
great. But if it doesn't, you know, there are all kinds of problems. And then, you know, we, you know, Ryan, you and I, we were there for the phone revolution. We similarly didn't have a debate. It was just all of a sudden, we all had phones. This time, because we just went through that experience, we have enough knowledge to be like, well, let's hold on a second. Social media. Right. Like, yeah. Let's put this next one up here, which I, it's a great story. And it's about how the University of California system went all in on AI. And now it's just tearing itself apart. They said, newly admitted students to San Jose University received an unusual message from the institution's president. They said her cameral curls were tucked behind her shoulders,
her hands were neatly classed, dressed down in a royal blue hoodie, she appeared composed and approachable. She said, congratulations on your admission. You'll have opportunities to dive into technologies, shaping the world, and redefine what's possible. That was not actually her addressing them, but a brand new custom AI avatar. The avatar, the avatar, said, I'm thrilled to share this special moment with you. It's only fitting. Technology is now a cornerstone of what makes the university such an incredible place to learn, innovate, and to grow. This is now the AI Everywhere strategy, which aims to integrate technology across all campus life. And the story, I mean, again, it's very, very long, but what it does is it just
goes into the way AI has gone into every single facet of this organization and how it's, you know, basically ripping the community apart, et cetera. But I mean, for even that, it's like you don't have the time to film a video. Sorry, my parents are in academia. All right, like, let's be honest here. In terms of, in terms of all summer. Yeah, it's like, sorry, no shade, but some shade. You know, university president, like, what is your job?
Like, you're dealing with tenure bullshit and cutting ribbons and talking to donors. You can film the damn video. You can, you can film the video. It just shows you how they're basically trying to come up with use cases for it for everything. And it is extraordinarily useful, but it's also destroying a lot of student life and homework. And it's like everything is becoming AI. And the students, as we all saw at those graduation ceremonies, they don't even like it. They're booing it at these commencement addresses.
Yeah. No, yes. And you're also seeing a lot of companies that are starting to say, wait a minute, like, it's costing us a lot of money to have these agents doing the work. They're not doing it as well as the people were before. And now we've run through our budget, our AI agent budget. And now we don't, so we don't have them anymore because we're out of money there. And we got rid of our employees. And the agent doesn't actually know where things are.
Like there's there's a there's a knowledge base that you have to have to like keep things to keep things going and you got rid of all those people So that is the other hope that that that's the math that's the the wall of math that this might run into But if that in that scenario like there is just a river of tears Yes that flows from this entire structure kind of collapsing But the other idea from Bernie Bernie saying well, introduce a bill to have the public take 50% ownership stake in the country's biggest AI companies. The American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act would have the government take AI companies 50% of stock and put it under public control. And I think before people freak out, it's like, hey, look, if we're allowed to nationalize TikTok because Israel doesn't like the way that, you know, the slaughter of Palestinians is getting, is allowed to be, you know, posted on the app.
If we can literally go ahead and seize that, then I think for something that is much more significant to the United States, we should consider this as well. Because, and speaking of, we talked about Troy Cacobardi earlier, one of the unusual things about him is that he has an actual AI plan. And one of his ideas that he's running on, he says, if something is free to provide or effectively free, to provide using AI, then it should no longer be the realm of kind of private profit. And the government should just make it available to people. Like if it really is free to produce or effectively free to produce a small amount of energy and running on an open model, just let people use it. And then they can build businesses off of it.
They can use it in their own lives to make their lives better. And if the U.S., if the government owns half of it, then you can actually start to make those decisions as a society. Right. And look, Trump has already laid the ground for this. Trump took stake in TikTok, this took stake in Intel. I supported all those. They get Cisco too or something? Yeah, one of them. I mean, you know why? I support it like with Intel. I'm like, yeah, Intel is a vital manufacturing, a high-tech piece of the U.S. economy, period.
Yes, the government should have a saying it. I mean, how can you look at TSM or any of these major Chinese conglomerates and not say that it's obviously the best way for it to work? Same here with AI. If we're to say that this is going to have a national and massive import on our quality of life, our way of life, our ability to work, on our wealth, et cetera. Not only should the government have stake and or ability to guide it from a shareholder perspective, but it's actually, you know, an old Republican value of like, fine, let's take a stake in it to from a value perspective and actually make something out of this. not just tax some of the actual dollars that it will create later on in the economy. It's actually, I think it's a good idea. At the very least, somebody's thinking about it, you know, as he has in the past.
So I like it. I like it. But anyway, a lot of new billionaires. We are about to see, there will be more billionaires in 2027 than any time in human history. And 2026 may even go down. Yeah, probably. Which a lot of may watch it. Congrats.
Based on my ideas. But there are actually, there are a lot of good people that work inside these companies, too. who we're like, look. Well, some of them are like we want to guide this to as the least bad or a good possibility. Others are like, hey, I got to have a job somewhere. Right. Got to become a billionaire somewhere.
You got to become a, how else can I buy my house in Marin County? Second home in Marin. That's fair. Yeah, my, yeah. Who's going to buy a yacht at the Newport Yacht? What is it, the Yacht Club in Newport, Rhode Island? No, no, I'm thinking of the one in California. This is my property.
I don't know. I don't know my California geography, which is what they all. always say to me. They're like, you're not even from here. Like, why are you talking about this? All right, let's get to JD Vance. OnDek is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, On Dex loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A Plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews. On Deck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com.
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Turning now to JD Vance, in the new long profile in the New York Times. Let's put this up here on the screen. Is JD Vance is the 2028 frontrunner? Trump has questions. Quote, in recent conversations with AIDS and allies, Trump often interjects with a question. Does JD Vance have what it takes to go all the way? He usually answers his own question. He's not so sure. It's not that Trump is abandoning JD Vance. He involves him in major decisions, has given him high-profile opportunities. for partisan warfare and trusts the 41-year-old to wage partisan warfare on his behalf. Trump recently compared him to Elliot Ness, the mob-busting federal agent. Trump has long conducted running focus groups on his closest aids and appears to enjoy needling them and keeping them off balance.
When it comes to JD Vance's stakes are higher, as the default frontrunner, JD Vance's fortunes ride to a substantial degree on the enthusiasm and support he gets from Trump, and Trump's regular polling of people of whether they prefer JD Vance or Marco Rubio has become one of the most closely watched early indicators of how power in the Republican Party might pass to the next generation. When he conducts these polls in private, Trump often compares JD Vance's performance to his own achievements. He has told several allies, JD Vance has never won a tough race without his help.
He has brought up the number of vacations that Trump has taken as vice president. Here, I just want to do a quick fact check. They write, Mr. Trump generally does not take them. Oh, really? That would be news to every single weekend of Mar-a-Lago, which I guess is apparently a word. Yeah, literal life is living on Air Force One in Bedminster and Mar-A-Lago. But whatever, I'll move past that one. But this was the key line.
He has repeatedly mentioned the Vice President's initial opposition to starting the war with Iran and has done so in front of JD Vance, quote, I'm more of a peace person than you are, but I had to do it. The president has also questioned his decision to send a JD Vance-led delegation to a negotiation session in Pakistan that failed to end the war. And I think what this does is it combines with Trump's obvious preference, or at least more recently, with Marco Rubio, because basically all of what Trump has done in the second administration, on a foreign policy level at the very least, it's Marco Rubio copy and paste, War with Iran, Venezuela, Maduro, Cuba being our existential
threat. And so, I mean, this just demonstrates, like, the sheer futility, which I think, you know, really I've realized here, where Trump demands absolute loyalty, even internally if you were to oppose or, you know, marginally opposed, let's say in the case of Iran, where publicly you're making them be clowning yourself by, you know, comparing Iran to a suicide bomber or something like that. Even that is not enough. Like, you need to be so enthusiastic of a bootlicker, both publicly and privately. And yeah, I mean, for him, he made the devil's bargain. He said, okay, I'm going to be the vice president.
But the theory behind that, which I have a spouse here, and I've said publicly, I did know him in a previous life. And the theory of the entire policy project was, we go, we work for Trump, and in exchange, because Trump is effectively tabula rasa, blanks, you push from the inside to have better policy. It's been a total failure, an abject in a total failure. Now, there's a lot of reasons for that. And really what I think it ultimately comes to is there's no forcing mechanism because even in this case, let's say you did oppose war with Iran. Nobody will ever know the truth, even if that's true. And even if you do so internally, Trump still demands absolute contrition in public, which neuters any ability that you have because in public you have to go out and defend this very nonsense as it is happening. So it just creates a mechanism where Marco Rubio would be the more honest succession at this point for MAG. What is MAGA? Like Trump. Okay, so Marco Rubio.
Let's do it. Low taxes, war with Cuba, war with Iran, war with Venezuela. All right. I guess that's mega. Yeah, that's MAGA. And what's crazy is that in this article, it suggests that Trump privately makes fun of JD Vance for opposing the Iran war, which blows my mind because you would think that at this point in the war, that Trump would be like, you know what, J.D., you actually, should have listened to you? No, dude, it's bunker mindset. Have you ever watched that movie, Downfall?
Not yet. The German movie about Hitler and the bunker. Yeah, it's the bunker. Yeah. This is fear of bunker mindset. It's like you've got to be all in. If you're even marginally off, and to that extent, this is where I don't even want to portray that there's some marginally off.
Maybe behind the scenes, maybe. To the limited extent of what I know, there has been, you know, he went to Islamabad and all that. But even then, Trump set him up for failure. I was saying, you remember, we talked about this. JD Vance had no ability. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi at that table, they had some scope to negotiate that they've been given from the Supreme Leader. JD's getting up from the table every five minutes called Trump and BB.
To say, okay, what about this? Or Jared was calling BB. Yeah, exactly. Like, they had no discretionary authority. He spent 18 hours in Islamabad. Nothing happens. Literally nothing. And from that, you know, J.D.'s also, I mean, Trump has put him out.
And this is Jaddy's fault as well. He's the attack dog. So what does he do? He goes out and defends the. stupidest shit possible that, you know, this is my segue. The absolute stupidest shit possible that later on, they have to rugpole and say, yeah, no, actually, it was a bad idea. So here he was a couple days ago being questioned about this, you know, slush fund that Trump
was setting up. Let's take a listen. I want to ask you about that $1.8 billion fund set up, weaponization funds is being called. Why should taxpayers be paying to settle a $10 billion lawsuit? that was brought by the president of the United States. And should people that attacked the Capitol building and assaulted police officers, should they be eligible? Should they receive money?
Should they receive money from this money? Well, let me say a couple things about that. First, John, I think in some ways the media has misrepresented what this is actually about. This is about compensating Americans for the lawfare that we saw under the last administration. And by the way, anybody can apply for it. Republicans can apply for it. Democrats can apply for it. you know, the President of United States has pardoned a number of Democrats who he felt were actually subject to this lawfare.
I mean, if Hunter Biden wants to apply for this particular fund, he is welcome to. It's going to go through a normal process where we vet everything, where we try to identify whether people's claims are actually legitimate. But here's the question. You say, why should taxpayers fund this? Whenever the United States government incurred legal expenses, it pays out those legal expenses. When it's settling a lawsuit, it pays out money to say. settle that lawsuit. And the question is, is a dollar of this money going to the Trump administration? No. Is a dollar of this money going to Donald Trump personally? No. Is a dollar of this money going
to Donald Trump's family? No. The people that would get the money are people, some of whom have been prosecuted completely disproportionate to any crime they've ever committed. So he gives us passionate defense to the fund. And now what happens? Let's put this one up here on the screen. Oh, oops. Trump is now having to drop the whole fund. because they're blaming the DOJ for, or sorry, they're blaming a judge for ruling against it. Here's what really happened. The entire Republican Congress rallied up against,
so this is what I'm talking about. He's forced to go out and defend the Iran War. He's forced to go out and defend the weaponization fund. He was point man on, um, on the shooting. What am I thinking of? René Good. Yeah. I mean, he was just out.
He was out in like my replies. He was out in my replies about the Renee Good thing. My God. I forgot about that. I mean, yeah. So he's like, dude.
And actually, allegedly in this New York Times story, there was this meeting, there was this moment where Susie Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, allegedly tells him to give up social media. He said he gave it up for land. He gave it up for lent. I don't know. I mean, again, who knows how much of this is true. Who knows how much this is like a Marco Rubio op also as well? Probably a lot of it. You know, look, I don't care. But my more, my point behind this is this demonstrates, I think, the failure of a project, which again, I believed it, was Trump tabular rasa. He's a good politician, whatever. But what happens is you have a bunch of people who work for him. They have a specific ideological
worldview. They'll use his presidency to push that said worldview, in which Trump ostensibly agrees, although Trump says a lot of different shit. It hasn't worked. It simply has not worked. The pro-Israel lobby and the rest of these people rolled that entire faction of the administration. To this point now, Iran is what Trump will be known for as of right now, for what, you know, know, in terms of his presidency, it really has what has pushed his polls in a dramatic new and a different direction. It's changed and shifted the culture dramatically, I think. And already things were not going so well for the administration, but this really put things over the edge. So in a certain sense, I'm like, why would you even want to be the successor
of Donald Trump now at this point? Let Marco Rubio have it, you know? And then maybe, you know, you're a young guy. Maybe you can make a case sometime in the future. But yeah, I don't know, I'm curious for what you think. Put simply, the bums lost, dude. But the blurbals lost. Yeah. Yeah, they were up against, they were outmatched. Yeah.
The neocon and pro-Israel and business lobby AI guys, they beat the bums. I was rooting for the bums. It is a remarkable story. In this intramural fight. It really is a remarkable story, like to think about how that happened. And what I've really seen is that because Trump ultimately is just a cult, like a personality, at the end of the day. for the vast majority of his supporters, that if you cannot oppose him on any ground,
you have to publicly support, and that removes any function to push things in a different direction when he is easily influenced or decides of his own accord, Iran war, massive amount of corruption. I mean, can a single MAGA Republican, a real elected official,
say what he has done with the pardon system or personally enriching himself is massively correct? They can't even say that. Can't even say that. Look at the Jubilee thing with Glenn Greta. Greenwald. They're sitting there just barking at you. They're barking at you. But what about Joe Biden? Or but what about it? And we're like, yeah, that's bad. What did Glenn say? Add a zero. And that's Trump. Multiple zeros. Multiple zeros. And that's Trump. And it's like their brain short circuits.
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