6/3/26: Iran Bombs Kuwait, Hezbollah Hits IDF In Lebanon, Elections In California
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All right, good morning and welcome to Breaking Points. Emily, how you doing? Doing great. Glad to be here. Yeah, big show today. We're going to have three different guests coming through. We have a huge show. We're going to start the show talking about the Iranian attacks yesterday.
Well, U.S. attacks on an Iranian ship, Iranian retaliation kind of across the region. But it seems to have calmed back down, but it's kind of set a new status quo. I think, which we'll talk about. We'll talk about the latest back and forth between Israel and Lebanon and Hezbollah. We're going to be joined by Josh Paul, who has a new look at the way that the U.S. is helping the Israelis use their antiquities laws to effectively annex the West Bank.
Huge story. Huge story. And then we're going to do as much as we can on election results, California, because it is a failed state, takes 10 days at weeks to count its votes. But we do know enough that we can, I think, confidently forecast some significant results. I like that we agree on California's failure as a state. We talked yesterday with Sagar and I with Dave Dayan.
I know Democrats want to break it up so they can get more senators. I think they should just break it up because it's a failed experiment and just start fresh. Start over. Like new rules, all those props. that you passed. Those are out the window. Direct democracy, man. It's got some problems. Do new props. Yeah, let's see what happened. Or don't do any props at all. Also, we have interesting, I agree with that. Interesting election results outside of California too. Some really interesting stuff in Iowa. Interesting stuff, Ryan, in New Jersey,
where, that's right. We interviewed him on last Friday's show, but he won last night. So we're going to break down all of those election results as well. Yeah, Bill Pulte is like Marco Rubio, adding a job. He is the head of the FHFA, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, where, as everybody knows, he sifted through loan documents to try to find Democrats who didn't fill their paperwork outright and then prosecuted them. They're putting him in charge of national intelligence. Why not?
I'm sure that will be fine. Why not? Yeah. This is a man you can trust. He's currently under investigation of what he did at FHFA, which he's not leaving. Oh, he's going to do both. He's going to do both. That little detail I hadn't picked up on.
Good, good. He'll have access to everything. The acting DNA we deserve. Yes, yes indeed. Wallabal Gay, who is running for Steny Hoyer's seat in Maryland's fifth district, which is Southern Maryland, taking a little co-host prerogative because that's my district. There you go. Went to college there and also grad school of Maryland, which is also in that district.
Steny Hoyer is trying to put an Oracle lobbyist in the seat as he's stepping down. He's been in office since like 81 or something. Unbelievable. And he wants a Larry Ellison lobbyist to replace him. The absolute state of the Democratic Party. And Bill Pulte is the state of the Republican Party. And Walla Bagley and Harry Dun are running against him, plus another dozen candidates. And then the other co-host prerogative, Orrin Cass.
That's right. Orrin Cass, fresh off interviewing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last night. He is going to be here. We're going to talk a little bit about all of the chaos in New Jersey outside Valaney. but also how the right now with the powers in its hands is handling the issue of labor, migrant labor, as it attempts to chart a course for the future. Yeah, and we have not... In the shaky economy.
And we have not covered the conditions and the protests at Delaney Hall enough at all, so I'm glad that we're doing this. Yeah, so lots to get to, as we said, big show, big show. All right. Let's kick it off with Iran here. So the IRGC last night launched strikes on both Kuwait and Bahrain in response to an Iranian ship being targeted as it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The attack, and you're seeing some of them being intercepted here, the attacks were much more, I think, severe than the U.S. the U.S. expected.
The U.S. statement was, we intercepted everything, but they have previously said there was this great statement that they put out. They were like, yeah, two MQ9 Reaper drones were destroyed and five service members were injured as a result of an intercepted ballistic missile. It's like, I don't know if that's what intercepted me. You're not supposed to intercept it with the MQ9s.
with your base. You're supposed to intercept it in the air. Yeah. Not when it hits the ground. That's not an interception. It doesn't count. So we have no idea because we can't, we will find out in days or weeks,
you know, how significant the damage was and what got through. We put up A2. This is what the Iranians were responding to, a dissentcom put out this footage. You're about to see a hellfire missile slam into the engine room of this ship. and it blows up it blew the video into pixelated form and so this is what the IRGC
then responded to with its fusillade back at them and the understanding that's coming out of from Iran analyst is that Iran is trying to say we're not doing
tit for tat stuff anymore like you do a tit we're doing 10 tats that they're trying to say, no, you're not going to degrade us back into the pre-February status quo. We're trying to lock in the gains that we have established here. And if you don't want to reach a peace deal, we're going to make it painful, not just economically, as fuel inventories are like, people are staring at the bottom of these barrels. We're also going to make it more damaging for you militarily if you hit us. Yeah, I mean, this is all just totally unexpected because I was under the impression, two impressions, first. We had a ceasefire.
There is no war right now. There's a ceasefire, so everything is right by Congress. There was no need to actually get Congress's permission here, no ongoing need. And second, that the war is over because Secretary of State Marco Rubio was testifying in front of the Senate yesterday. And he told us the war is over. Let's watch A3. Iran has lost a substantial percentage of their missile launchers, and they're, economy is far worse today, and I mean far worse today than it was six to nine months ago.
And they are looking at hundreds of billions of dollars of reconstruction costs just to get to where they were. Mr. Rubu, you keep telling us how we're winning this war. The president keeps saying, well, the war is over now. Completely annihilated. The war is not over. You heard that. Straight from the Secretary of State testifying in front of Congress yesterday on the split screen,
basically, with what we just showed you. The war very much not over. War is over if you want it. Yeah, that's right. It's a vision. It's a peaceful. He's vision casting. It's pretty incredible.
So what are we talking about then? If the war is over, yeah, what? We just said the war is over. All right, let's just skip to the next segment. Yeah, right? Yeah, we're done. This is good. You will never hear us talk about Iran again, except in the context of peace.
War is over. Our new peaceful ally. All right, well, also, Marco Rubio is getting tons of questions in front of the Senate yesterday on everything from where he was during negotiations to keep. Cuba. Let's stick on Iran for the moment. This is A4. I was shocked to see that you were at a party with President Trump in Miami instead of accompanying Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan for negotiations. What party was I at? I was at a party?
It's publicly reported and there's photos there. But what party? No, no, no, no. But you're going to say that. I'm going to answer it. I'm going to answer that question. That's an absurd statement. I was not at a party. If I finish my paragraph, he can. He is the second in line of the presidency, United States. He was president. President. Mr. Steve Witkoff is the president's envoy for negotiation for peace deals. Mr. Jared Kushner is a private citizen that serves as an advisor on these functions. They were the team that we sent to Pakistan. I was not at a party. Where I was is next to the president because in the midst of those negotiations, I was in communications with them. And in fact, I think there is media
reporting from that evening on how multiple occasions I went into a back room, I came back out and spoke to the president and was constantly updating him. On that evening, I spoke to Mr. Jared Kushner and negotiating team and Mr. Woodcoff on at least six occasions, including twice on a secure line from the phone they had access to over there. So you don't know what you're talking about. Well, let's just bring in his response on Cuba for good measure while we're on the secretary's testimony yesterday, A5. For the misunderstanding about Cuba, Cuba's actually not controlled by the government. Cuba's controlled by a military holding company named Gaesa. And Gaesa virtually owns anything.
They are on the tourist sector. They own mining. They own the gas stations. They own everything. They generate about 70% of Cuba's GDP is under the control of this military company. And they're sitting on between $14 and $17 billion in assets. So you have people literally starving, people literally like power grid that hasn't been maintained in 10 years. And yet you have this holding military company sitting on these assets. And by the way, not a penny of the money in the military holding company translates over to the public treasury. So the fundamental challenge we have here is that Cuba needs to be, in order for it not to continue, to continue to be a failed state, which poses a threat to the United States, they need systemic
and serious reform. They need to have economic reforms. And the question is, can they possibly reform, given the people who are currently in charge both of Gai and of their government? And I think the answer is they can. I really don't believe this system is capable of reform unless new people take over or a new mindset takes hold. Now, we've engaged in conversations with them. We've offered them what I think needs to happen in order for their economy to recover. And that's the last point I would make is I think somebody raised this issue of oil blockade. Cuba was having blackouts well before January 3rd of this year. They were having blackouts for years.
And they were having blackouts for two reasons. Number one, no one will give you free oil except Maduro. That's what's changed here. What's changed here is they're no longer getting free oil from Venezuela. What do you think, Ryan, reading the tea leaves there, are we closer to two pieces? We've got two. Some people may say we would have two wars, but there is no war on it's over. So maybe we'll also be closer now to a peaceful transition in Cuba.
Yeah, it's so wild to hear him talk about Cuba. So, yeah, Guyasa, which in New York Times has done a bunch of recent reporting on this, so people are hyped up. He's kind of cooking on Guyana. So, okay, $14 billion. Like, we have spent at least twice that in the last couple weeks attacking Iran. Like, $14 billion does not really make the most threatening, intimidating kind of, like institution. like this is we're supposed to be we're supposed to be scared of this and yes there is there is it is a communist government and and gaesa is the kind of economic engine that you know the that the government
uses to like national you know run its national economy there's a huge swath of the economy is yeah yeah and in the last you know several years they often also opened up private businesses and so now there's this like actual competition on the island between private businesses and in public businesses and a bunch of private ones are actually outperforming the public ones, then the public ones will then use like socialist, like anti-capitalist arguments to try to get people to come to them, even though the other ones are kind of outperforming them at times. But yes, like, okay, this guy Asa is a thing. Marco Rubio's point there that they only want free oil, that's all it's about.
No, the U.S. has blocked Cuba from getting any oil, even if they pay for it. I don't know why he keeps lying about that. Yeah, the pressured Mexico, not to give Cuba oil. Right, and sell even. Like, if they have $14 billion, as he's saying, they can buy oil. Mm-hmm. And then, but he, we won't let them. It's such a flagrant lie that he just keeps telling it.
Like, just, it's so bizarre. And, yes, like, there were blackouts before January 2nd. Yeah. Okay, that's true. Yeah, we've had sanctions on them since the 1960s, and we really tightened them in 2019. They've been poor stewards of their own economy, and we may disagree on that in some ways, but the bottom line is, does a military intervention make that problem better? Does that military intervention make that problem worse?
And that's the real question. And also poor stewards of... Or is it more? Poor stewards of the economy that have produced better education and health outcomes than the United States. States, like over the, now, not recently, because now they're really getting smashed into the ground. But we should reflect on that. How is it that a communist government under these intense sanctions that Marco Rubio says is horribly mismanaged, how are they outperforming the United States on health and education? It's a bit of a statement on all of those conditions. It's a bit of a statement
on our own management, of course, here in the United States of. And it might say something. about the value of a robust public sector. On this point, Trump, actually, let's go back to Iran briefly because we have Trump posting on true socially yesterday. This is A7. Speaking of what's true, what's false, Trump says fake news reports that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the USA stopped speaking a few days ago are false and erroneous. The conversations between us have been going on continuously, including four days, three days
ago, two days ago, one day ago, and today, where they lead, one never knows. but as I told Iran, quote, it's time one way or another for you to make a deal. You've been doing this for 47 years and it cannot be allowed to go on any longer. So there he started, speaking of the Cold War, starting the clock in 1979, it looks like, right? Yeah, yeah. Can we acknowledge that doesn't make any sense? No, it doesn't make any sense. You have to make a deal, but this thing that you have, the Iranian government, can't go on any longer.
but if you make a deal that keeps you in power then it can go on longer so the point that they are still talking is an important one like it was it was overblown
and at most Iran threatened to suspend negotiations and then Trump responded by calling up Benjamin Netanyahu and saying don't bomb Beirut according to Trump there they're back on.
The one Marco Rubio clip we didn't play, there was this hilarious moment where I think it was Chris Van Hollen or somebody was complaining, maybe shots, complaining that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. He's like, why does everybody keep blaming us for that?
It's Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz. And we have almost every country in the world signing a petition to the U.N. complaining about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. There you go. And people are like, are you serious? Like you're, yeah, okay,
Maybe that's rude of them to do, but everyone predicted that they would do it. And then they did it. Yeah. So it's in their national interest. A little bit. Yes. This was a back and forth with Marco Rubio in the Senate yesterday as well. It was just like, did you predict that the Strait of Hormuz?
Did you fail to predict that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed? But this is where, Ryan, again, you keep talking about war. Let's put up the last element on the screen. The White House posted this yesterday. And I failed to understand why this isn't working, Ryan. on you at least. Trust in Trump, all caps. Just sit back and relax. It will all work out well in the end. It always does. President Donald J. Trump. Chill out, man. Yeah, and Tucker Carlson famously said that right before the Iran war, he was like, I really think this is a mistake. I really think this is going to blow up in your face. And Trump told him, I know you do. I appreciate it. But don't worry, it'll work out. And Tucker Carlson said why? And he's like, because it always does. It's so beautiful. Um, yeah.
What's amazing is that he's still using the line after it's so plainly did not work out. Like what about this worked out? If the war is over, as Marco Rubio says, it very much did not work out. These two things are not true at the same time. Right. What, what didn't work out? All, like all of our bases are in ashes.
Iran controls this trade of Hermud. Yes. Gas is over $4. Iran still has all this nuclear dust. Yes. Gas is approaching $5 a gallon. Who was it? Chevron or somebody said they're looking at $150 to $60 a barrel in the next couple of weeks, if nothing, changes.
All of the kind of Goldman and J.P. Morgan analysis that was propping up the markets, assumed that by July, straight of whom it would be wide open. I got a calendar on my laptop here. It's getting close. Clock's ticking. Clock is ticking. The whole time I'm like reading these announcements, I'm like, I don't know about this, Goldman. Like, are you sure?
Like, why? Right. And Trump's like, well, it's all going to work out. What's extra sad is that some of this we know from that big New York Times report with Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman on the byline. We know that it was Marco Rubio and others inside of the administration predicting some of this would happen. Everybody could have predicted some of this would happen. And were lukewarm on Trump's decision to launch the February 28th strikes partially because of what they're now defending as this successful war.
That's now over. Yeah, Marco Rubio called the Israeli arguments BS in that meeting. Right. Trump's like, oh, well, it's fine. Let's do it anyway. Yeah. This episode, sponsored by Mood. Okay, this is actually genius. Are you ever overwhelmed with choices at the dispensary?
What if I told you that you could shop cannabis by the exact mood you want tonight? With mood, you don't shop by strain names or confusion. You shop by how you want to feel. Want to relax after work? Sleep better, feel more creative, or be more social. Mood makes it simple. Pick the feeling, and mood recommends products to match. Mood has gummies, flour, pre-rolls, and edibles designed a real.
around your mood. I tried mood's sleepy gummies and within an hour I felt calm, settled, and ready for bed. No dispensary run, no second guessing, just a smooth, relaxing experience delivered to my door. It's federally legal, third party tested, and backed by a 100-day satisfaction guarantee. Go to mood.m-o-o-od.com. That's m-o-o-odd.com. However you want to feel tonight, mood helps you get there. We can move to Israel. We had this news earlier this week that there was this tense call between Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump. Joe Biden?
Oh, Trump. Yeah. I think a lot of people have a very hard time hearing a word about angry phone calls between an American president and Israeli prime minister because like nothing seems to ever change. Even though they almost certainly, this is part of what's so pathetic about it. The reports, I actually think, are very credible, whether it's Barack Reveed 10 different times on Joe Biden being mad at Benjamin Netanyahu when he was awake or now Donald Trump. That's what's so pathetic about this is I think they actually are frustrated with Benjamin Netanyahu and then continue to make decisions in his benefit.
And Trump does flex his muscles on Benjamin Netanyahu sometimes famously. Remember, he made Benjamin Netanyahu apologize to the Emir of Qatar when he bombed the Hamas building in Doha. Benjamin Netanyahu then denied it, and then the White House produced a photo of Benjamin Netanyahu reading the apology onto the phone. Remember that? Yeah, that was humiliating. Utter humiliation. But also kind of for us, too. So these things do happen, but then that's the end of it.
Benjamin Netanyahu knows, like, okay, I'm going to, like, take a little spanking here, but then he's going to back off me and I'm going to be able to do whatever I want. So Itamar Ben-Gvir, I guess we could put this, put B1 up on the screen here, posted. Mr. Prime Minister, you said that a strong PM tells the President of the United States yes when possible and no when necessary. This is the time to tell our friend, President Trump, no. Now is the time to do what is required and necessary to strike Hezbollah, to unleash the hands of our fighters, and to restore security to the north.
put up B2, this is Itamar Ben-Gvir. He goes and visits a settlement and says, in all honesty, the suburbs of Beirut need to be flattened. They need to be flattened. I opposed the previous ceasefire, and today I'm also saying the suburbs must be flattened. So this is the kind of range of debate going on within Israel right now. It's the defense minister. The national security, national security advisor, yeah. And let's be. And let's be. And let's, Lebanon is the sticking point. In a war between Iran and the United States, where we're trying to reach a deal, the sticking point is Israel wanting to go to war with Lebanon. Right. And you had drop site, you all at drop site, Jeremy, and your whole team has been reporting on how this is factoring into the negotiations as a sticking point. So what we're seeing play out right here in Israel and in Lebanon is really critical to when the war may actually end contra the claims of Secretary River that it's already over.
Yeah, and we can put up B3. This is also a VEO. This is footage from Courtney Bonneau, a courageous reporter in southern Lebanon who's been reporting on the like endless violence and an ethic cleansing going on there. And you're at the site of a hospital, Obida, which has been attacked several times by Israel. Talk to us about what the scene is like there. That's right. This is the third time that there has been a strike in the vicinity of Jebel Amel Hospital. The doctors and medical workers here are describing them as proximity strikes. The hospitals here, you see, the facade of the hospital has been heavily damaged. We were able to go inside the ICU as well as the critical care unit and several of the other floors.
It's been significantly damaged inside. Some of the operating rooms are not usable. Some of the treatment rooms are no longer usable. A lot of damage to the equipment. We met a mother who had an infant child in the premature care unit, prenatal birth. care unit and she actually came to the hospital after the strike. She was happy to find that her baby was alive, but a lot of damage around the place that the baby was too close for comfort for her.
You see this extensive damage all throughout this neighborhood. This is the parking lot. And so meanwhile, the Israeli military conquered the Beaufort Castle. This is a Crusader Castle that was, we can put up this Vio here before. It's a Crusader Castle that was very important in the 12th century. And we can talk about the last time the Israelis captured it. Immediately after capturing it, they put up a celebratory video with a bunch of IDF soldiers showing off that they took this crusader castle. Hezbollah then watched that video, saw where the Israeli troops were, and immediately launched a drone swarm at them.
And at least three IDF soldiers were fatal casualties. Others injured. A tank was destroyed. I think two ATCs were destroyed. And so I don't know if you saw this, but the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations went to the UN and delivered what is to me one of the most like eyebrow raising. I don't even know what to say. It's like, you kind of left speechless at it. Let's roll this.
This is an example of a drone used by Hizbala. This is what we are dealing with. Now, Hizbalah are using different kinds of drones. Few of them with fiber optic. These drones weigh less than two kilograms. It flies low. It is very difficult to detect. And by the time you hear,
it above your head, it's too late. It can fly undetected for tens of miles. And all of a sudden, you see it above your head. A thin cable is what makes this drone different. It does not rely on a radio signal. It cannot be easily jammed, unfortunately. It gives the operator a live video feed and direct control until impact. This is a modern warfare, cheap, precise, deadly. Yeah, so, Emily, what you just saw there was the representative of an invading army, invading an occupying army,
complaining that the people he's invading, of which they have killed 3,000 civilians in recent months, that they're fighting back. And the 3,000 is since the war broke out? Since the ceasefire. Right, right. Unbelievable. And they're upset, like, they want the UN to condemn that Hezbo is fighting back?
Yeah, of course. It's a very strange, like, how do you, like, trying to get my, I feel like that is, it's so divorced from reality. Meanwhile, the effort to annex this, this greater Israel, particularly, um, particularly, um, when it comes to the West Bank, continues apace. And so let's bring in Josh Paul to talk about the legal mechanisms underway there. The Israeli government has been using antiquities laws for quite some time now to try to seize an annex West Bank territory as well as Gaza, Gaza territory at some point.
But now the U.S. is getting involved in a more direct way to help us kind of unpack what's going on here, Josh Paul from a new policy is here to walk us through some of what he's discovered. And we'll also talk about this new development where the Israelis are responding to pressure on the U.S. to cut military support or military spending to boost the Israelis by saying, well, how about we just integrate with the Pentagon? Make it all one thing. So we'll talk about that on the back end of this, on the front end of this. First of all, thank you for joining us. And Congrats. I know you guys supported Adam Hamway last night. Your colleague was up in Trenton, New Jersey. Yeah, thank you. Adam is a great candidate. Actually, about 90% of the candidates we endorsed yesterday.
One, their races all moved on to the next round. I think it's a sign that America is really shifting and the politics are finally beginning to catch up. People may remember Josh from a longtime State Department official who resigned in protest over the Israeli genocide in Gaza. So what is the American Heritage Commission? Tell us the story of, this, this is a, and we can put this first element up on the screen. This is a crazy story. It is an absolutely crazy story. And for us, it began by reading the Annual Appropriations Act that provides funding for U.S. foreign policy, which is moving through Congress right now and buried deep in the text
of this, you know, several hundred page bill is a line that endorses the work of the U.S. Commission for the Protection of Heritage of American Citizens overseas. or broad, and endorses in particular its work in East Jerusalem and its support to the Israeli City of David project. And that called all right, because the Israeli City of David project is, as you said, ethnic cleansing under cover of archaeology. It's a project that has so far displaced over 1,000, over 1,500 actually Palestinians in the Silwan neighborhood of East Jerusalem, has demolished over 100 Palestinian homes.
in the name of an archaeological dig. And so we said, well, wait a second, what is this U.S. Commission and what is its involvement here? So we did the research, and the U.S. Commission was created actually in 1985 in the Cold War. If you remember, this was the time of Pope John Paul II, the Catholic Pope from Poland, the time of Anatoly Shiransky, the Jewish dissident from Moscow. And so religion was front and center, and this commission was created, I think, as a part of that struggle with a particular focus on American heritage in Central and East Europe in those parts that were then
under Soviet influence. Today, the Heritage Commission, that remains its remit. That's supposed to be the left and right limits. And yet, starting a few years ago, it has been increasingly involved in backing Israel's ethnic cleansing and its archaeological, quote unquote, digs, particularly in East Jerusalem. And if you look at the Heritage Commission,
that's actually not that surprising because of who it is made up by. So right now, the chair of the commission is a lady called Leslie Bari Weiss. She was the U.S. envoy to the International Holocaust Remembrance Assembly, the organization that came out with that now infamous definition that says criticism of Israel is anti-Semitism. Which the U.S. then codified into law. Which the U.S. and continues to try to advance and apply to shut down debate in academia. Also on the commission's board is Herbert Block, who is president of
of the American Zionist movement. And most interestingly, a guy, a New York investor, Dweck, Joseph Dweck, who actually appeared on essentially a spinoff of a fake version of Shark Tank that was created specifically for Israeli settlers to pitch their ideas, for illegal Israeli settlers. So... That sounds like something someone would come up with on a fake shark tank, like SNL Shark Tank.
Like, it's another version of Shark Tank, but it's for settlers. And this is the guy who's now driving U.S. policy, and now bringing Congress behind. to support ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Can you tell us a bit more? Go ahead. Let's actually play a little bit of the shark tank first. Yeah, let's roll this. One of the main goals of the farm is protecting the lands of the state of Israel.
By being here, that's actually what we're doing, giving Jewish presents to these lands that were deserted. Our Farm Project Initiative comes to unite and bring together 42 farms of Judah and Samaria. 60,000 acres is the amount of land that our farmers protect in Judah and Samaria. So tell us a bit about why they say what they're doing is important. So we've talked a bit about the outcome, but what do they say the stakes are for their ability to do what they want to do? So interestingly, if you look at the commission website, it actually doesn't make any mention of their work in Jerusalem or in Palestine.
probably because it's well outside of their actual mandate. They are given $770,000 in taxpayer money each year. This is a commission that meets twice a year. So how they're spending $770,000, I think, is a pretty opaque question and needs to be looked into. They refer on their website to their work in Europe. They make reference to one project they have in Armenia, but nothing on this. So I don't think that beyond they've done a couple of public statements and public engagements with an organization called Elad.
This is another interesting threat to pull. This is an Israeli nonprofit that is backing these archaeological digs. It, in turn, is funded by Russian oligarch, now sanctioned Russian oligarch, Robyn of Rammovich. So you have this U.S. Commission working with an organization backed by a sanctioned Russian oligarch to pursue ethnic cleansing in Jerusalem. The only, you know, real recent reference to that, beyond their public statements over, you know, five years ago, is now in this congressional text in which Republicans in Congress
are essentially backing the work of the commission in East Jerusalem specifically and trying to pursue funding for this city of David ethnic cleansing project. And correct me if I'm wrong, the 2021 war in Gaza was sparked by this precise project. Right. This Sheikh Jaraa ethnic cleansing. Hamas said, stop, you know, evicting Palestinians from this neighborhood or were going to fire. They went forward and continued to ethnically cleanse the area. Hamas fired, Israel attacked Gaza back. Yeah, and Jerusalem is a particular flashpoint.
We've just seen in the last few weeks, claims that some within the Israeli government are looking to shift what they call the status quo on the Haram al-Sharif or Temple Mount to, you know, expand Israel's presence. And, you know, that is such a tentative. area that drives, I think, a lot of instability not only in Jerusalem and Gaza and Palestine, but across the Middle East, but it is also an agenda that fits very nicely into what some are pursuing through what they call Christian Zionism, which is, you know, essentially not only
supporting Israel's objectives, but using this essentially as a means to lead to that ultimate battle, the Christian Zionists believe will, you know, bring back Jesus and, you know, lead to the end times. So I think it's a very dangerous project. How does this antiquities law play out in the West Bank, and particularly the one that the Knesset is now pushing one an even more aggressive one? Yeah, so in the West Bank, there are a number of sites where Israel is now trying to exert. So right now, Israel's occupation in the West Bank is by and large a military occupation. They are trying to create a new civilian archaeological authority to take control of certain West Bank sites that they call heritage sites, this would be essentially a de facto annexation.
Once you start saying this is no longer a military occupation, this is now under civilian governance, civilian rule, it's part of Israel. And so that's just another example of how Israel is trying to use archaeology as a pretext for ethnic cleansing and for annexation. Well, what's interesting is where you said that it seems like it's maybe a thin pretense here as well, and that if they're not even boasting about their archaeological progress, or ambitions in this area. I mentioned they talk about Armenia
and other places on their website. It seems like that's a rather thin pretext in this case. If they don't have specifics they're pointing to. Well, I think it's a thin pretext for the Heritage Commission because, again, this is way outside of their mandate. Israel has made a great show of its archaeological findings.
Well, there's several of those who've come into question in recent years. There was a famous case just in the last year where a coin that was found was found then dated to be fraudulently created. So, and, you know, even to the extent, I mean, clearly there's a lot of important history in Israel, in Palestine, that deserves attention. But there's no reason that that history can't be that of a shared history, a shared heritage, and understood research developed in coordination and cooperation with the Palestinians, rather than destroying their homes and displacing them from their historic land in order to promote a narrative, ultimately. Well, let's put a B6.
So people may have seen this news that, you know, under pressure from J Street, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, like the increasing democratic opposition to continuing to fund the Israeli military, which even Benjamin Netanyahu has said we want to phase it out. Yeah. Like we're, we're done with this, these American subsidies. Section 224 of the NDAA affect, tell us what it's doing. Like, it's described as effectively blending together the Israeli military and the Pentagon in a way that would make it basically impossible for critics to come in and say, we want this stopped. How would this, as somebody from the State Department whose job it was to oversee this relationship, or not oversee the relationship, but heavily involved in a relationship, what is the difference in this approach versus what we have had up until now? Yeah, thanks, right. So first, let's start by taking a step back and realizing, I think, one fact, everyone, I think, at this point can acknowledge.
AAPC are losing. The American people have had a transformation of opinion, public opinion when it comes to Palestine and to Israel. You know, if we look at the current election cycle that you've been discussing, we see that there is very clearly an advance for those who stand up who are willing to call a genocide to genocide. And in that context, what AAC are trying to do. Israel and their allies is essentially lock in the current relationship because they realize that, you know, these midterms might bring a shift in the House or in the Senate or in both, and it's just going to get continually harder and harder for them over time. Right now, we give Israel $3.8 billion of American taxpayer money every year for their military.
In fact, in some years significantly more than that. And that's just not going to be sustainable. I don't think anyone looking at current American politics looking ahead, you know, five, ten years, imagines that members of Congress are going to be okay with continuing that funding. So if you're them, what do you do? How do you lock in the current relationship and get around the, you know... Democracy. The democracy, right.
Exactly. The public opinion and Congress is increasingly increasing unwillingness to just sort of hand out American funds. And the way you do that is by entrenching the U.S.-Israel defense relationship so deep in the machinery of the Pentagon and in the production of America's industrial. base that it becomes impossible to root out. And that's what this section of law, Section 224 is trying to do. This is part of something called the National Defense Authorization Act. It's an annual so-called must-pass bill. And it's going through the House Armed Services Committee
tomorrow, Thursday, 4th of June. And this is in the base text. This has been put there by the Chairman of the Committee, Chairman Rogers. So it is going to be very hard to root out. I think we'll have, you know, a shot tomorrow. Representative Rocahna is going to introduce an amendment to try and strip it out. If that fails, Republican Representative Thomas Massie has said he's going to try to pull it out on the floor. And if that fails, then we still have a battle to fight in the Senate. And again, when the two bills come together during what they call conference in November, December, but look, this is in some ways the ballgame. Once this language is in there, It, first of all, tells DOD that it has to do everything it can to integrate Israeli technology into American weapons platforms.
It identifies a series of areas for U.S. and Israel to cooperate and research together, including the most sensitive technologies you can imagine biological technologies, quantum technologies, AI. And it creates an executive agent at the Pentagon whose job is to move this program forward. That's an executive agent who would be able to essentially overrule the people in charge of defense technology security at the Pentagon, the policy people, any of this. So once the ball starts rolling, it becomes very difficult to pull out. You see corporate contracts, government-to-government contracts, academic contracts being signed that are hard to unwind. And I think one of the worst aspects here, the final thing, is that it really flips the script on leverage. If you think about the US-Israel relationship right now, we have the leap which we don't use it Right, we should but it exists we can cut the funding we can cut the weapons once you make American
arm supply and the American warfighters advantage dependent on the Israeli supply chain They can do that they can say well, you know we're not going to provide this technology anymore that enables your fighter jets your electronic systems whatever it might be So it really puts us under their thumb and their special is cyber weapons and cyber surveillance. American or multinational tech companies have already absorbed enormous numbers of Israeli startups that are involved in the cyber space.
And so there's already a ton of that in there, but that's technically largely private companies, even though they're very much linked up with Unit 8200 and others, other elements of the national security apparatus. But so if, If they are in the factories and their specialization is cyber weapons and cyber side, would that mean they basically have or could have kill switches and tracking on basically our entire industrial base,
and military industrial base? Yeah, well, first of all, let's recognize why Israel's cybersecurity and cyber surveillance ecosystem is so capable. It's very much the same way that America's pharmaceutical industry became so capable in the 60s, and 70s with, you know, experiments that they could conduct on unwitting populations in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Today, Israel's cybersecurity industry can carry out experiments essentially on the unwitting Palestinian population. And that's what they've done. And then they take that technology that they've developed on Palestinians and sell it to, for example, ICE to use on Americans. But it's very clear that that ecosystem cannot be trusted. There's, you know, been a number
of lawsuits, public lawsuits, for example, Meta has sued an organization called NSO Group in Israeli spyware manufacturer, which makes Pegasus. Apple has sued them too. There's an ongoing suit. Isn't Pegasus even banned by the U.S.? So good question. Pegasus has been sanctioned by the U.S. along with a number of other companies that specialize in cyber intrusions and, you know, revealing the information, and in part because Pegasus Software was used to target American civilians and officials. Jamal Khashoggi. Jamal Khashoggi and others.
So we're going to absorb a sanctioned entity and bring it into our own? So first of all, there's warning signs that those sanctions may be going away. There is movement right now within the State Department to try and repeal those limitations around the NSO group. But the NSO group is just the tip of the iceberg. As you noted, all of these organizations have deep, deep ties, personnel funding to Israel's unit 8,200, their equivalent of our national security agency. And, you know, Israel has shown no compunction whatsoever.
And its willingness to steal American technology, to steal American secrets, right? I mean, Jonathan Pollard, one of the most famous spies who stole American nuclear technology, is now in the Israeli Knesset. And this is the ecosystem that we're going to be bringing into our most sensitive military technology. It just is absolutely insane. Desperation. Yeah. So where are the leverage points?
So you've got Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie for people who are watching this that aren't all the way blackpilled. Because I can imagine a bunch of people just turn it off and like, all right, we're cooked. Well, maybe the leverage points are the lobby from Apple and meta. Yeah. Yeah. So the ones for people still watching who haven't completely given up hope. Yeah. Who do people talk to? So, first of all, this isn't law yet.
It's going through the committee, through the Armed Services Committee in the House tomorrow, but you can call your representatives today and ask them whether they're on the committee or no people on the committee not to support this, to support Congressman Conner's attempt to pull it out, to support Congressman Thomas Massie's attempt to pull it out on the floor if it comes to that.
They should also be calling their senators to not put it into the Senate version of this bill. I think the more people are speaking about this, the more people are aware of it. They're feeling the pressure. So Mike Rogers... I could see it becoming a litmus test vote. I think it will be. There's a lot of things that are going to be a part of this year's NDAA process.
You know, the president is seeking an incredible increase in military funding. But I think this is going to be very much a test, including for Republicans, because the Republican base doesn't like this either. And I think they don't want to see their members voting to integrate our... defense system are most sensitive technologies with a foreign country who can then use that as leverage. That's not America first. Now, I'm saying, Emily, you correct me if I'm wrong, you know this Republican conference better. They believe right now, as long as they have Trump's endorsement, they're safe. Trump will not be here forever.
And not next cycle, but the one after. He'll be here forever. He might be here forever. He's the devil. He can last a long thing. He's in human form, he's immortal. But let's say he isn't here forever.
And let's say his influence over our political system phase. How dangerous do you think it could be to have this vote on your record in a Republican primary in a world in which there are open primaries because Trump is not able to just shut them off by endorsing people? Well, and this isn't really even just a Trump issue. This is a broader America first issue. And so I don't necessarily know that Trump is going to wait into primaries to, defend people on a vote like this, but what I could see is people entering primaries because they now have this powerful tool to say, you voted for the most America last thing I could possibly think of.
To let a foreign government into our military. Right. So that was just, I think that's just powerful on its own, not necessarily, just in a sort of declining boomer power structure Republican Party that I think is powerful on its own. But it's the NDAA. That's the thing. That's why they're putting it in the NDAA because it makes it impossible for many people to vote against. That's why they're putting it there because they can say, oh, you didn't vote for national defense.
That's what they're doing. But there are plenty of opportunities along the way. And, you know, it's certainly not impossible, although it's certainly going to be difficult for a future Congress and a future administration to rescind this legislation. But the sooner, if this makes it into law, the sooner that's done, the better because the longer it is there, the harder it will be. Yeah, that's right. Well, Josh Paul from a new policy. Thanks so much for keeping us updated. Really appreciate it.
Thank you. All right. Up next, election updates. We're, of course, coming to you here on Wednesday morning. And as of right now, we're looking at the latest. We can put this first element up on the screen. We have 63% of the vote in in the Los Angeles mayoral election. And Karen Bass has 34.8% of the vote.
Spencer Pratt has 30.4% of the vote. Nithya Raman all the way down at 22.3% of the vote. But as Ryan and I were talking earlier in the show, actually it's not impossible for Nithya Raman to pull this out based on the way that ballots are counted in Los Angeles. So Ryan, I would say it's unlikely at this point that she's able to make up that eight points. But after early ballot dumps in the Rick Caruso race, he fell seven points. And like that's what happened when the last drops of ballots were counted. So it's possible, unlikely, but possible still. Nithyrami could pull this off.
And I, no offense to L.A., I don't have a dog in this fight. And so just objectively speaking, I think I'd rather be Nithya Raman actually right now. Like, if I were Spencer Pratt, I would not feel that that was enough of a lead. Because as Dane was talking about on the program yesterday, usually Democrats get their ballots in earlier, but because the gubernatorial race with Eric Swalwell getting thrown out and like nobody having any idea kind of how to vote. Because the top two thing makes you,
it makes your voting decision making that much more complicated because you have to think strategically. Why rank choice voting is so much better? Because then you just, I don't have to like strategically game theory out how my other fellow citizens are going to vote. I can just say. You still kind of do that with rank choice, but yeah. But you can say one, two, three, four, five.
Yeah, there's some strategy, but it's a little less. It's more like, my favorite person is this person. Second favorite is this one. With this one, you're like, well, I like Karen Bass, but I'd rather vote for Nithya Raman because I don't want Pratt to be in or now Nithya Raman's rising, so I'm going to vote for. It's like, so because you have to spend so much time
thinking about it, you need the most information. And so therefore Democrats waited until the last, right up until election day, for the most part, to vote. A lot of them did. So that means there's many, many Democratic votes still out there compared to Republicans. So I'd be very nervous if I were Pratt. Well, he was not nervous even going into the race. Let's roll at C2 here, Spencer Pratt. He said he would be over 50%. Take a look. Somebody gets 50% plus one tomorrow. Race is over. How do you see this going? I believe I'm winning tomorrow night outright. I think there's a tsunami of votes coming for.
from all the people that are done with politics as usual. They want an outsider, they want a disruptor. There is no polls that show it anywhere close to being 50% for you. What do you say to that? I would say to all those people that I have, they're not talking to pollsters. Their moms trying to dodge naked zombies with a stroller. There are people walking their dogs to the park
making sure their dog doesn't step on a fentanyl needle or sniff some fentanyl or walk over human poop to get a matcha. Those people don't have time to talk to a pole. holster. Let's go. Let's go. All right, Ryan. You said he may not have enough of a lead to feel comfortable. I would counter that by saying it's also possible there's the sort of shy Pratt vote that might come into the last minute. It does not look there. They were trying to sneak in when you saw them. Well, let's take a look at the gubernatorial results because it's not looking great for Steve Hilton in that race because as of right now, we can put it up on the screen.
57.5% of the vote is in. Hilton's at 27.8%. Javier, Xavier Becerra is at 25.4%, or as Joe Biden would say, Bacaria, 25.4% and Tom Steyer is at 19.6%. So, again, with the way that California results are counted, if this next ballot drop goes the way people expect it to go, you may see Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer. Yeah. Yeah, again, I wouldn't want to be Hilton. That's, he's, he's going to be, yeah, he, Yes, I think he might not make the top two. Yeah, which is so crazy to think. You look at that and you're like, oh, he's first.
He's going to be fine. Right. Like, well, there's a lot more than, there's a lot more votes than the numbers that you saw. Right. On that, which again, break California up. Like, what are you doing? No other state or country has a problem like this.
One of the reasons I'm a bit skeptical that Raman and, I don't know, it's a little different in the gubernatorial race, but in Rahman's situation in particular, Pratt's candidacy is predicated on the idea of bringing in people, perhaps from the left or center left. So it doesn't seem impossible to me that he's different than a Rick Caruso. I don't know about Steve Hilton. I think Steve Hilton, that's a different question, but it is possible that it's not going to be exactly like other races
where the late ballot drops were way more favorable to the left. We could see a more similar margin, just solidified. It's true. If, yeah, if there's a whole bunch of Karen Bass votes that don't go to Anithia. Right. Yeah. Or if Xavier Becerra gets a ton of the Democratic votes that are outstanding rather than them being split between him and Tom Steyer, then, yeah. So the Republicans are in, they're in the race.
Like, it's still possible for them. We'll tell you in about a month when they're done counting. Yeah, we'll get back to probably around the 4th of July. Unbelievable routing. That's not getting talked about enough for Katie. Katie Porter. She's at 4.6% of the vote. 230,000 votes right now. Unbelievable routing of Katie Porter. Some good news. Yeah, somebody like Katie Porter, you see this in politicians where it's like you have, you have, she was a house member on the financial services committee.
She was extremely good at that. She deeply understands finance and it's predatory nature. and she was able to use the position that she had to advance the agenda that she has. And she just kept hunting for other, like, positions. And I've seen it so many times in politics. It's like, just stop. Like, you're good. Like, Nancy Mace, like, I was like,
this lady's going to flame out somehow. And she runs for governor for, why? Why not? Like, you can have that house seat. You can probably have a house seat. that house seat forever, despite all of the shenanigans going on in your office and in your personal life. But then they go for something else that they're just not, you just know, you're not going to reach it. And so this is Katie Porter, she went for the Senate, right?
She went for this. Yeah. Flopping each time. And now that position that she had where she was able to really punish these bank, banking CEOs. Right. And she was. She doesn't have anymore. Right. And so crypto wins, Wall Street wins. And she loses and the public loses. Because I think she was like a genuinely useful weapon to have in the House of Representatives. If you're progressive, it's certainly fair to see it that way.
And yeah. And I think even like if you're anybody that wants to see bankers, progressive or not, if you want to see bankers squirm in their seats, and who doesn't want to see bankers squirming their seats? But anyway, so nobody takes my advice. Let's head to New Jersey, Ryan. So Adam Hamilley. So this is the doctor who the New York Post and Jewish insider were accusing of having al-Qaeda links.
Actually, I just saw Mike Lawler. Let me see if I still have this up. This is Mike Lawler. He tweeted out, how in the hell, this is the New York 17, like Republican member of Congress, who's always paling around with Josh Gottheimer. He says, How in the Hell has a defense witness in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing
with ties to al-Qaeda been nominated by the Democrats to serve in Congress? That's very similar to the subhead on the New York Times article about his victory. He also served eight years in the military. He was a combat surgeon.
The al-Qaeda thing in 1994. We talked about this in the president. In 1994, he volunteered with an organization that a decade later was rated as a front for al-Qaeda. Also, 1994, the only people that knew who al-Qaeda was was basically the CIA. It was probably funding them. Like, no people, unless you, like, fought in Afghanistan, like, knew who al-Qaeda even was. It was 1998 when they hit the call and the embassy that they become, like, a thing that people know about. So, retconning this, yes, retconning that.
to say he's therefore is al-Qaeda? Has Loller served in, does Loller serve in Iraq? I don't think so. Like, it's, yeah, it's, you want to criticize him for, for knowing the blind sheik and getting called to testify in that trial?
Go ahead, whatever. I think there's fair, I think there's pretty fair criticisms of Hamaou's prior, like, associations, but we asked, people can go watch it. We asked them all of these questions. And his answer was like, look, the Muslim community is extremely small.
Everybody knew everybody. I knew that guy. Yeah. Which is maybe not the best defense, but actually, the people in New Jersey had their opportunity to listen and hear out the arguments and they went with him. Yeah. And so he won. So the thing he's known for most recently is doing multiple rotations as a volunteer doctor in hospitals in Gaza. And we reported on him at the time two years ago where the Israelis had surrounded. rounded the hospital that he was in, cut off the water supply. The Western doctors inside the hospital, some of them were on like IV drips because of the Israeli siege of the hospital. They were trying to get the Western doctors to leave and not be replaced by another rotation of Western doctors so then they could then raid the hospital. And he refused.
And even when some in his rotation left, he and two others stayed saying, we're not leaving until another rotation of Western doctors comes in. And under massive international pressure, particularly it came from Tammy Duckworth, whose life he saved as a combat surgeon in Iraq, the Israelis buckled and allowed another wave of Western doctors to come in and replace him, so then he went back out. And now he's going to Congress. And Michael Oller can sit and spin. Yeah, it's, they are going to have a lot to feast on. the next, how long is this going to be? Like, the, how? Well, it's a very blue seat, too. Yeah. So he's going to, he's going to win. But they're going to try to, I think he'll try to
use him in other races. That would be my assumption. Go ahead. Go ahead. Go for it. And then in Iowa, this race has been moved by the Cook political report to toss up because of who Democrats nominated for their gubernatorial pick. Josh Turrick. Yeah, Chuck Schumer dropped $9 million dollars to boost turak here looks like it worked it certainly worked so he he beat uh zach wals by almost what the 25 points there and yeah he's the paralympian yeah kind of populist as well right yeah he he won a we talked about this i think his record was been slightly fudged about the district that he won but it is it is true to say that the district that he represents in the house uh went for trump uh it's also it's council bluffs which is a kind of a suburb
of Omaha, it does have some serious conservative streak to it. They do have a history of nominating Democrats at the state level or electing Democrats at the state level. But yeah, so we'll see. In a wave year with I think what Henson, Representative Hinson is the Republican nominee, just kind of a corporate Republican, in a blue wave year, certainly this Iowa is on the map. Yeah, hugely on the map. We should also, and I wanted to mention another Iowa race. This is, we can put up on the screen the next element. This is the Maha-backed candidate, Zach Lane, beats Randy Feenstra. This is Trump's endorsement in Iowa for the gubernatorial primary. Trump's first lost. Randy Feenstra got a last-minute endorsement from Trump. Zach Lane is a Maha farmer guy. He has worked for,
like he worked for a Tea Party group in 2014, 2015. He's an interesting candidate. So interesting. Yeah, he's been pounding the glyphosate stuff. Maha is really, really optimistic about what they just saw. And actually, he's kind of using it as to take a little victory lap and say the grassroots is Maha. And the grassroots is going to, you can't take for granted the grassroots support that you get from Maha as a Republican MAGA candidate. And Feincher, this did not work for him.
Zach Lane was also endorsed by Turning Point Action, I think. it was, and this all worked out great for Zach Lane, who, despite the last-minute intervention of Donald Trump, Lane's seen as kind of more MAGA, like seen as more hardline, Randy Feenstra seen a bit as more establishment. So, man, quite an interesting outcome. Trump's first loss, we were talking about last week, he had all these screenshots up on his true social about how he was the undefeated king of this primary. 100% of his picks down the line. Totally true. He didn't really do much in the Iowa race. He just
tossed out an endorsement literally on Friday. It wasn't much. He wasn't trying to sway this result in one way or the other for the most part. But it didn't, the endorsement itself didn't work. And so that's... Usually that endorsement's enough. He's now at 99%. Usually just a tweet, does it? You'd think. But, yeah, Lane had a lot of support. So that's definitely, you're right. We should get them on the show. That's one to follow. Montana had some interesting results as well, Ryan. Yes, this kind of union smoke jumper, Sam Forstag, who burning Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez backed him, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had a rally for him. I said yesterday the progressive vote between him and Cleveland would probably be split too much for him to win. Shows what I know.
Forstag, well, we'll see. This progressive vote is split here, but he's currently up by 3,000 votes and four points. NBC calling it too close to call, but you'd rather be forced toag right there. That's that would be a win for kind of the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, particularly going into Montana. And, you know, making the case that this is not just a Bronx and Queens populism, that it can work, that it can work around the country. Aaron Flint is the Republican nominee who replaces Ryan Zinkie, who was, So it's a Republican leaning seat, but it's a competitive seat. And if in a blue wave year, you could imagine this being a flip.
D.C. Democrats wanted Ryan Busey, like the more corporate Democrat. So it's nice when Democrats or voters have this opportunity to say, no, no, no, actually running a populace is a better tactical move. It's one thing to say, okay, I like them better. their policies better. It's another thing to be able to demonstrate, no, this is actually the way to win as well. With Turek, I think there's a good example, too, the same thing you're talking about. Let's go back to California. We're going to do Vigas, Metsui, and Gonzalez. So let's start with Vigas, Ryan. What are you taking a look at here? Yeah, we had Randy Vigas on a week and a half ago or so. He's the community college professor and the auto shop owner from Bakersfield. D-T-T-T-T-C endorsed against him,
endorsed Jasmine Baines. Democratic majority for Israel came in big for Baines, spent millions like the attack ads on Vigas were just absolutely relentless. And, you know, it's not over yet, but
we're looking at, you know, he's up 2,000 votes. He's in second place behind David Vallado, the Republican. But he's in, he's in, he's on track to make the top two. We'll see. All right. Let's go to California 7, Ryan. What are we looking at here in the Doris Matsui
results? People may remember May Vang, who was on the show recently. She's challenging Doris Matsui, incumbent Democrat in her 80s, longtime support from A-PAC and from corporate PACs. Like, a very standard kind of corporate Democrat. She and her husband have held this seat, I think, for like 40-plus years collectively. effectively. Doris Matsui took out a bunch of money and helped and her backers put together a super pack that supported this guy, Zach Wooden, was like a Republican college student because they were trying to get him into the top two. And so right now, you've got Doris Matsui at 32,000 votes, May Vang at 26,000, and Zach Wooden, the college kid at 25.
thousand. So May vang is ahead of wooden by 0.8. But as we were saying earlier, there's so many Democratic votes out compared to Republican votes that he would have to be kind of way ahead to survive the wave that's coming in. Now he and so Matt Sui and May vang will make the top two. Matsui went all out to try to keep May vang out of the general. general because she, I believe that her team is convinced that Mayvang will beat her in the general, that there's a lot of incumbent resentment there. Also, the local papers have been turning on Matsui. They, they did good, it shows the value of good journalism. Like, they exposed that it was Matsui and her backers that were boosting this Republican college kid. Very interesting. And so that matters.
And a lot of congressional districts, that media infrastructure just does, exist anymore. This is Sacramento, and there's a Sacramento B and other other outlets. And then- California 34? Yeah, Jimmy Gomez, another kind of corporate A-PAC-backed incumbent. A-PAC bailed him out big time in a previous, I think it was a 2024 race. Justice Democrats ran Angela Gonzalez-Torres against him, and she's losing by 20, but it's enough that she's going to make the general election. Right. So we'll get back in November. Actually, it'll be December by the time we know California's November.
Yeah, and Gomez is under the, he's under the 50% mark as of now with 60% of the votes in. So if he crosses that threshold, good for him. If not, there'll be the two of them. Well, even in the house, right? You don't, even in the house, if you win 51%, you still have to go to the general. It's the mayor's race that you get, you win out, right? That's right, yeah. But either way, he doesn't have over the 50% threshold, meaning that there's,
room for Gonzalez Torres to make up a lot. Be a tough coalition because you would need, you would need Republicans who don't like Gomez. But they won't vote. Or, right. If there's top two, if the top two in the governor's race are Democrats, then yes, the Republican turnout is going to be low, which will be very good, by the way, as we were talking about yesterday,
for the billionaire tax. So if you can get two Democrats in the governor's race, keep the Republicans on the couch, then the billionaire tax has more chance of going through. Man, some interesting stuff. We'll keep our eye on all of these races going forward. You can't predict the future, but you can prepare for it.
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