Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 20th, 2025

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramwitz and Anne-Marie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Kelsey Barrow of JP Morgan Ascent Management has this to say. While the Fed may have been uncomfortable with the lack of government data, our conclusion from the information that is available is that the labour market continues to gradually weaken. Kelsey joins us now for more. Cassie, good morning. Good morning. Looking forward to having you through the jobs number in about 10 minutes time. Let's talk about that jobs number. Is it stout? Does it make a difference to the debate on December 10th? Well, if we look at it, it's been 76 days since the last jobs report. So if anything was in my fridge for 76 days, I would say, yeah, that's stale. Now, I think the most important thing that we've learned over the last 24 hours as it relates to the rates market is the new BLS schedule. So the fact that... the Fed is not going to see the October or November jobs report until after the decision. And as a result, probabilities that the Fed is going to cut in December has come down. Now, I'm going to go into a little bit of what the Fed could do or will do versus should do. Now, what they will do, I think, is probably skip the meeting unless we get a really poor payrolls report today. because of the lack of data, because they are, quote, flying blind. But I don't really believe they're flying blind. You know, we've all been in planes. You go in a plane, you fly through clouds, you fly through fog, right? I'm not a pilot, but I'm pretty sure that when a pilot is flying a plane, they're not looking out the window, right? They have all of these technical radars and instruments that they're using. And honestly, I think that they're... is enough data out there for them to assess the labor market. And as I said in that opening, to view it as generally weakening over time. And that's even if this jobs report today comes out a little stronger. And if we were to do a whisper number, which I know we don't have for today's number, I would say it feels like the market is prepared for a modestly stronger number relative to what's on the echo screen for consensus. So let's say it is moderately stronger and you don't get a 25 basis point rate cut next month. Does that mean that a 50 basis point rate cut in January is more likely? I don't think so. that they feel moving gradually is appropriate, particularly when you're so close to neutral. So I think that if they do skip, we're still looking for 25 basis point rate cut in January. The market has been very efficient in terms of its repricing. So the past few days, you've seen the probability of December go down. But all of those rate cuts have really just been pushed into 2026.

rate for the Fed funds rate hasn't actually changed very much. So it's still around 3.1% approximately. So the market is really looking at this as a skip, not a pause, not a hold. And I think that the dot plot is also going to communicate that, meaning even if they don't cut in December, the 2026 dot is going to be below the current Fed funds rate. I don't want to go back to this, but the idea of the expiration date of the food in your fridge. 76-day-old wonderbread or canned beans are very different than 76-day-old strawberries. And I just wonder how useful it potentially could be. Even if maybe you don't want to eat it, you could eat it and not get sick. I mean, is there something in this job data that's going to be relevant to how you see the trajectory for the Federal Reserve? Yeah. Absolutely. But what I would say is if you look at the NFP chart, you pull it up on the Bloomberg terminal, you type in GP, what you're going to see is a sawtooth pattern, right? The jobs numbers don't go in a straight line. You have a slightly hotter, you have a slightly weaker. You have to focus on the trend. And so that's what I'm going to be focused on in a few minutes' time. I'm going to be looking at what the three and six-month moving averages are. I'm also going to be looking at how much of the jobs are cyclical versus acyclical. So most of the hiring that we have been seeing really in the last six to 12 months has been a-cyclical hiring. which is, I think, an indication of the fact that the labor market under the surface is a little bit more squishy. Why that matters for the Fed, it doesn't mean that they need to do emergency cuts, but it does mean that if they do continue to cut, it doesn't threaten their inflation mandate. And that's really, you know, the question here is if they continue to cut, does that threaten their ability to get back? to 2% on inflation, and we would say, no, that we're not really seeing evidence in the cyclical sides of the economy that wages are re-accelerating or the labor market is retighting. From your view, how political has December gotten? I'm not sure it's gotten particularly political. I think this is actually more about the fact that we are getting close to estimates of neutral. And so every single decision from here on out just gets harder. And to be fair, it is. harder for them without some of the data that they had. So I wouldn't necessarily say it's more political. I just think that it's a tougher part of the economic cycle to try to determine what's going on. Amory asked this question earlier on. I love your view, your opinion as a market participant, how you would react if they delayed the meeting until after the data dropped on December 16th? Not saying they're going to do that, just as a market participant, how would you respond to that? Is that a good thing?

I would be very surprised. I think the market would be very surprised. I mean, that's... Surprised in a negative way, though. I mean, I'm thinking through this as you're laying it out for me. Sure, no worries. And... I guess the market would probably view that as risk that the data that they're going to receive is weaker. And so, you know, the Fed wants to pause so that they don't miss an opportunity to cut and then have to wait all the way until January. But it seems like a pretty high hurdle. I mean, they put out those dates for the schedule years in advance. And the number dropped just moments ago. Payrolls came in at 119. That's an upside surprise. The estimate was 51K. upside surprise but a lot of nuance elsewhere if you were the data points that points out negative revisions unemployment climb into 4.4% from 4.3. The estimate was for that to stay at 4.3%. And some more timely data, if you're looking at continuing claims, continuing claims, the wrong kind of upside to price. So if you're out of work in America at the moment, it's getting harder and harder to get back into the labor force. And that's what you see from that number almost repeatedly over the last several months. To get the market reaction, equity features still near session highs on the S&P 500 and on the NASDAQ, supported by decent earnings from NVIDIA. Bond yields off the back of this. initially lower, they stay lower down by three basis points on a two year at 355. Kelsey Barrow of JPMorgan still with us. Kelsey, you've had 10 minutes to go over these numbers. What jumps out to you? Yeah, so first of all, on the market reaction, clearly the market was somewhat prepared for a stronger number as it relates to September. But then what you had in the mix of it is a number of things that pointed to less strength than just the headline number alone. So to me, you know, the numbers, the things that stood out were the unemployment rate moving higher. And on an unrounded basis, that actually moved to 4.44. So not far away. from 4.5. So, you know, that's a meaningful thing to me. Continuing claims, also new cycle high, as you mentioned, it means it is harder to find a job. And then the third thing I would say is the concentration of job growth is still very high. So as I see it, 59,000 jobs created in health care and education. which is an acyclical area of the economy, and that's more than half of the job gains, where you have the cyclical areas like manufacturing, professional business services, negative. Are you staying? There's a chance. We might get a right cut.

Next month. Yeah, this really is an interesting development. I mean, our base case has been that you will see a December rate cut. We tempered our expectations because of the announcement from the BLS. But, you know, our general view is that the Fed is going to maintain an easing bias. And that's ultimately what's important. What's most important for the Fed is that the labor market is cooling. And as a result, it means they're able to cut rates without threatening their information. objective. We see wages continue to moderate. We see inflation outside of tariffs as fairly benign. The bond market tends to agree with us as it relates to, you know, you look at the inflation market itself, fairly benign pricing there. And so I think this is an interesting report that leaves December potentially still on the table, although it's going to remain a pretty close call. If they decide not to cut in December, do you get more conviction to go into long-duration bonds? The idea that this actually will cause the cracks to widen that we're seeing in the labor market. So I think what we've experienced over the last few weeks are great examples of fixed income behaving the way that you would expect. in periods when the market is trading risk off, serving as the ballast, serving as the diversifier within your portfolio, and that obviously comes down to having duration in your portfolio. So that is something that we have liked. We have arranged for the tenure of 375 to 4.5 and a quarter when we're at the top of that range. You have the opportunity to increase that position. When we move down to the bottom of that range, we need to be thinking about two things. Are we still in a soft landing or is the economy changing? If we're still in a soft landing, there's a limit to how much lower yields can go. If we are concerned about a harder landing, then there's even more space for rates to rally from here. Kelsey, you brought up a great point. We're a hair away from that line in the sand really that Jerome Powell's outlined. 4.5% unemployment rate. We were almost just there. Isn't that going to give the impetus on the Fed that they should be concerned with the labor market? Quite possibly, but I do think that there are still two core groups that are going to not necessarily change their view as a result of this job's report. I just don't think it's enough. So that the people who wanted to stay on hold probably aren't going to look at this immediately and say, I need to change my view, but they may be more likely to be less vocal in terms of their dissent. So it's kind of maybe a nuance there of they're less intensely against it because they are seeing that there are things happening on the other side. But, you know, for those who are more concerned about inflation, that picture hasn't changed. We didn't get any new data on inflation yet. Maybe a little bit on the wage side. But, you know, that's limited. And, you know, they can still say for four and a half percent, that was what was in our forecast. So not.

surprising us to the upside and still a relatively low unemployment rate versus history. Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions, buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500. Or, if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokridge services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth, and Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most, a resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work-life balance. With our unified T-Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity. Sees your opportunity at Michigan. Let's talk about health care for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a health care company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system. So care is connected, not complicated. for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions, Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients' money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make health care work as one. for everyone. Head to business.optim.com to see how.

It's an upside surprise on the headline number, but plenty of nuance beyond that. Slightly wonky, but another number that's interesting is 80.2%. Here's what's coming from the BLS today. The September estimates from the establishment survey include both data collected on our normal schedule prior to the shutdown and also September data that businesses self-reported electronically during the shutdown. As a result, the establishment survey collection rate 80.2%. For this initial release of September 25 data is higher. than usual. So a higher quality report, if we can call it that. Yeah. So what does this leave us? Does this leave us with a good report or a bad report? And you talk about how it's going to be a Rorschach test. That said, the fact that this is backward looking at 76-day old data at the same time that you're seeing the ongoing continuing claims. tick even higher, does seem to indicate there could be some kind of shift on the FOMC that leans toward where the market would like it to be. Nila Richardson of ADP joined us now for more. Nila, welcome to the program, some timely data, some not-so-timely data. How are things set up in the labor market from your vantage point? So the rule of my house is three days and it's out. That's why we have a weekly report index. But I'm going to say that good news, bad news, it's always good news to see job gain. So I am cheering the September number. I'm cheering the fact that it seems a bit stronger in terms of the response rate. But I have to go back to August because that's where the ADP numbers and the BLS numbers are almost in sync. We saw 4,000 drop in August at ADP. very similar to what the BLS saw as well. So going into September, there's strength there. But we note that in October, that strength may have been mollified. September is an easy month for seasonal adjustment. There's not as much hiring. But when you go into that October, November, December period of seasonal workers, it's going to be a little bit more challenging to offset the seasonal factors. To note, the private sector was driving this jobs report, but it was the consumer-facing private sector that really carried the water in this jobs report. So so goes the consumer when it comes to health care, when it comes to leisure and hospitality. So goes the labor market. The connection between the consumer and the labor market has never been stronger when you look at this report right now. Neela, given that backdrop, does this give you the justification in your head for the Federal Reserve to cut rates next month if you could just sort of go there and get a sense? Is this a strong read or a weak read in your view? The whole context of the Fed view of the labor market is that labor demand and labor supply are falling in lockstep. I think this report challenges that notion because you see, what you see is that the unemployment rate ticked up. And on the worker side, you also saw a bit of a rise in the labor force participation rate. To me, that suggests that more people came into this market looking for work and didn't find it. And that's especially supported if you look at the continuing claims number that is...

continuing to edge up, telling us it's taking longer to get a job. This is a highly concentrated labor market. Only a few sectors are strongly producing jobs. It makes it challenging for workers with a general skill set to find employment. And I think that's what's going to challenge the Fed in December. It's not just a strong jobs market they have to look at at the demand side. It's how the supply side is faring in a very concentrated labor market. Does a Fed rate cut change this picture? I guess that is the key question that everyone keeps sort of coming back to. Well, if this data is backward looking, a Fed policy move is very much forward looking, right? We won't immediately see the effect of a rate cut on Main Street. It will take several months for that apparatus to trickle in, especially when you look at the key way that Fed policy... transitions into Main Street is through the borrowing markets, through the credit markets. Our consumers positioned right now for those big ticket purchases, a house, a car, a refrigerator that really drives the labor market forward in terms of new hires. I think when you come to the holiday season, that's where the rubber meets the road. That's where the disconnect between the wealthy consumer and the low-end consumer really matters because if that low-income consumer can't purchase in the same ways they do over the holidays generally, then we won't get the growth factor leading into the first quarter of the year. So a lot is going to be borne on the shoulders of that low-income consumer over the next three months, both when it comes to seasonal hiring and when it comes to seasonal spending. Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

Looking ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting, Sarah Malick, the CIO of Newveen, writing December rate cut as a toss-up. But three rate cuts are expected over the next 12 months as the Fed leans incrementally dovish in the second half of 26. Sarah joins us now for more. Sarah, welcome. We've got to reflect on the data out just moments ago. Something for absolutely everyone. Does it change the debate for December 10th on the FOMC? But we got two new data points today to help us determine whether we're going to get that rate cut in December. This is, first of all, economic data trickling in with this employment data and also technology and consumer earnings. So first of all, on the payrolls number, for September, the number is stale. There's something for everybody in it. While we beat on payrolls, we have downward revisions and increasing unemployment rate. So I think that's mixed in general. We saw the odds of a rate cut move up from 30% to 40% on this number for December. Second, the good news is earnings, which has been the good news for the past few weeks. Invidia earnings strong, Walmart showing the consumer is still shopping. That's good for earnings and good for large cap tech. The bubble that people were talking about in the markets was mostly in unprofitable tech and speculative technology. tech. But I think from here, given Nvidia soothing the markets, tech will lead. We will get three rate cuts over the next 12 months. But December's still a toss-up. We may approach close to 50 percent chances of a rate cut. But most of the Fed has been leaning hawkish recently. We heard that in the Fed minutes yesterday. So you said that tech will lead. And this is an important point. Will tech lead because the Fed has been more reluctant to cut rates aggressively? Or will it lead despite the fact that the Fed is more reluctant to cut rates? Tech leads for two reasons. The first one is a moderately weakening economy. We are seeing that in the payroll data. And second is a slower pace of rate cuts. The moderate growth is good for tech because they have their own structural drivers. Artificial intelligence is alive and well. We can debate when will we see the ROI on all of the dollars spent on AI, but we will see AI continue to increase productivity for companies and eventually boost their revenues. That's the main structural driver for technology stocks and think they will continue to lead from here unless the economy shows significant signs of accelerating. or the Fed dramatically decreases rates. Talk about timely. Speaking of the labor market, this from Verizon, just moments ago, today we will begin reducing our workforce by more than 13,000 employees across the organization and significantly reduce our outsourced and other outside labor expenses. Sarah, efficiency, an operational efficiency. Is that going to be a big theme for next year? I think two themes will be for 2026. First of all, is that efficiency because of artificial intelligence? Every company seems to be talking about that. And also, because of inflation, we're hearing more and more about affordability and actually some decreases in tariffs in areas like beef and coffee. Is the economy still affordable for the consumer hearing a lot out of Walmart on that today? Those are two themes, I think, that are bubbling up and we'll continue through 2026 as we talk about how are we going to incorporate the value of artificial intelligence into our business?

business models. Sarah, just before you go, top picks right now into the new year. What are they at the moment? We love infrastructure. Infrastructure has tailwinds, more building in the United States, shift to artificial intelligence and electrification of our economy. One stock in particular, NYSource, an Indiana-based utility will be a nice play on this. It's one of the fastest growing utilities in the region. And we also like more conservative stocks that grow their dividends, dividend growers also. And NYSource is one that pays a 3% dividend yield. Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions, buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500. Or, if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokridge services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth, and Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most, a resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work-life balance. With our unified T-Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity. Sees your opportunity at Michigan. Let's talk about health care for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a health care company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system. So care is connected, not complicated. for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions, Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients' money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make health care work as one.

for everyone. Head to business.optim.com to see how. Angelo Zeno of CFRA writing this, NVIDIA's data center revenue demonstrating sequential acceleration. That validates our thesis on sustained hyperscale of spending. Angelo, join us now for more. Angelo, in these numbers, is it sufficient to restore the faith in this story once again? So, John, thanks for having me. And I'd say, you know, for today, yes. I mean, I think some of the concerns that are out there in the market continues to linger. You know, and we all know what that is. I mean, I think probably the biggest issue out there is on the, you know, the concern about financing and, you know, getting the necessary financing from a number of these customers, not necessarily the hypers, which we all know over the last three years have been absolute monster spenders. But as we look here, kind of over the next three to five years, and we get this broadening out trade within the AI ecosystem. the likes of, you know, the oracles, the core weaves of the world, open AIs of the world, they're going to be bigger contributors in these forecasts that you have out there for in VITIA as well as the rest of the AI ecosystem. And the question is, you know, clearly is the financing going to be there as we kind of broaden out here? Angela, I'm so pleased you've gone there because we've been drawing the distinction between the company and the way the company is perceived in the stock market as a stock because they're two very different stories. And Angela, when it came to the earnings, of Nvidia, yes, they're fantastic. Yes, the guy is solid. But in many ways, some of that was inevitable because we know what's happening elsewhere. Their biggest customers are spending a lot of money and promising to spend even more. Angela, what I'm trying to understand this morning is whether what they've unveiled overnight yesterday afternoon is sufficient. to reshift the story around the way people are treating the stock. Because over the last several months, for a long, long time over the last several years, there was a view in this market that this story was built on the balance sheets of the hypers. And this all made sense. It was strong. Now there's a worry that this is built on something else. Debt-fueled financing, maybe very skinny revenues developing over Open AI, and a loss of confidence. Angelo, and this is what I want to keep going back to, have they said anything in the last 24 hours that gets the market? to reshift its thinking again about how it addresses this story in the stock market. So not necessarily. But that being said, listen, I think when you kind of look out here over the next couple of years, I think the expectations out there are thinking from most of the analyst community. is not one where, you know, we're necessarily expecting north of a trillion dollars and spend from Open AI. At least that's not in the forecast, in the consensus estimates at this point in time. So I think that's a good thing. But when you kind of look at the, you know, the broader investment community, they're kind of looking at, hey, listen, there are these promises that are being made or commitments being made, and there's no way they're going to meet these commitments. What I would tell you is that they don't necessarily need to see those full commitments being made in many respects.

There are going to be many different ways that in video is going to continue to see higher revenue and burning out of their ecosystem. And I think it's also important to note that these hyperscalers will probably get much bigger in nature here over the next five to six years. I mean, we're looking for Microsoft. to see their revenue double here over the next six years. We're looking for Alphabet to see, you know, their revenue go up, you know, 70 to 100%. So that cloud business for these hyperscalers are going to continue to get much bigger. We've seen the great momentum out of two, three earnings season. from these hyperscalers. So we do think those companies will continue to pave the way. And then that broading out trade is going to be the question mark. But again, I think as long as it's incremental in nature and we see some sovereign AI opportunities like we just saw it announced yesterday, I think that's going to help the overall narrative and get the stock higher here. Angela, that's a key point there, the sovereign purchases. And we'll get to China in just one second and how feasible that opening, reopening could potentially be. wonder if you are satisfied by the response to having to finance some of your customers to continue buying your chips. This will a lot of fear around circular financing and why NVIDIA feels the need to do that if there is so much external demand. I think in some respects, Nvidia feels like it's an obligation of theirs. And, you know, I wouldn't necessarily go as far as to say they're doing anything that isn't prudent in nature. I think this is one of those instances where it's extremely expensive. to build a data center. You're looking at a gigawatt, you know, data center at about $50 billion in nature. And Nvidia is essentially taking the lion's share of the profits for the industry. So in many respects, what they are doing is reinvesting those profits. into the ecosystem to help build the AI ecosystem. In some respects, I don't necessarily think that's a bad use of funding. I also think it helps to kind of improve the stickiness across where they are within the ecosystem. So overall, I'm not necessarily concerned about some of these. circular financing issues, however, and I'd actually expect to see more of this take place here over the next couple of years. So it is something that I think investors need to get somewhat comfortable with. But again, I mean, if it gets to a level where it gets just out of control, I think that's what becomes problematic. How much upside is there to NVIDIA's shares if President Trump gets his way? And the Congress is forced to drop some of the restrictions in terms of sales into places like China from NVIDIA.

So I'd say in video, I'd say China itself, we're looking potentially at at least at least $20 to $30 billion in annual, you know, sales added to Nvidia's revenue. We think that would be conservative in nature. And, you know, again, that would probably add, let's call it about 8 to 10 percent to their revenue trajectory. And you know, you'd see a likewise impact in terms of the stock price move. Let's call it a 10 to 15 percent. Initial boost, we think, from that approval. So, you know, we'll see whether or not there's going to be upside. if there's approval and then, you know, to what extent those companies will spend on Nvidia's ecosystem. But, you know, the good thing is it's at $0 at this point in time and there's significant upside potential if they're able to get into China. When you think about the upside potential, I know the Commerce Department yesterday came out with the green light to sell chips to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Is it big enough to fill that gap that exists right now, that hole when it comes to Beijing? Probably not. I mean, and maybe over time it will be. And again, you know, the good thing is it's zero dollars in revenue or essentially zero coming out of China. I would say this. China's got the second largest ecosystem of hyperscalers out there, right? You do want to sell into the Alibaba's, Baidu's, 10 cents of the world. And that would be an enormous positive if they can do that. I'd also say. You know, when you kind of think about the developers that are out there, the developer community, it's something that Jensen has repeatedly said. He wants to make sure he's got access to and that they continue to build on NVIDIA's ecosystem. That's not something you're going to get in any other area of the world. So it's extremely important, we think, from that perspective, but, you know, NVIDIA gets back into China. Given that, what you just said about how he talks to Chinese developers, how difficult is this line? to walk for Jensen Wang when it comes between Washington and Beijing. I think it's a difficult line. I think if there's anyone that can successfully do it, it's Jensen. And, you know, maybe you throw, you know, Tim Cook in there in some respects and how he's handled, you know, kind of the China-U.S. relations. I think there aren't many CEOs that can do a good job with that. The great thing with Jensen is he's, it seems like he's got the ears of both nations at this point in time. And that's a huge positive. He's got that power. And we think, you know, in many respects, we'll see how all this plays out. But, you know, it's taken longer than we've thought, to be honest with you. We thought at this point in time, we probably would have seen Nvidia, you know, back into China. But again, these geopolitical uncertainties, you never know how long they're going to drag out.

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