Bloomberg Surveillance TV: January 21st, 2026

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Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts Radio News. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramwitz and Anne-Marie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We have the wonderful lineup of guests today, starting with the very own CEO of the Royal Bank of Canada, Dave McKay, who joins us here. Dave, wonderful to see you. Thank you for being with us. It's great to be back. It's amazing. A years gone by already. Right? I mean, what's your impression so far of this Davos? It feels very different than previous ones. It's more intense. There's more leaders here than I think there's ever been over 850 CEOs, 400 ministers, 65, heads of state. So there's been a lot of dialogue already in the first kind of 48 hours. A lot of joint... business government leader dialogue around investment. To your point, looking at making deals, looking at co-investment, every country looking at diversifying trade, bringing business leaders with them to talk about co-investment or rather what's manufacturing investment. Defense spend in Europe and Canada's going up. A lot of discussions about how do we spend $80 billion in Canada on defense. What partners are we looking at? How do we use that? defense spending lever to attract manufacturing investment in automotive energy investment. So there's a lot of grand bargain discussions going on with business leaders and haven't seen that before. And so it's different. It feels different. It's transactional to you said, but it's exciting at the same time. There's opportunity here. Well, you're talking about the excitement and yet you are Royal Bank of Canada. You are expanding in the United States. And right now, there is a breakdown in the relationship between these two countries. How problematic is that for you at a time where you have been expanding in the United States? And you do see flows, at least in travel, going the other direction a little bit. You know, I think we're in this temporary world where we're trying to figure out how we're going to trade going forward. But I come back to the core of USMCA. Canada really helps America with affordability. We make things in Canadian dollars. We sell it to the U.S. and the U.S. buys it at a 30% discount, whether it's automotive parts, whether it's steel, aluminum, food, and a lot of our canola goes to the United States, and therefore we help keep prices down in the U.S. And if the U.S. were to bring all of that back, It's inflationary. You shortage of labor in the United States. So as you look at the core of USMCA, it's good for America. And I think that gives me comfort that we will come to an arrangement going forward, recognizing this is good for America. It's good for Canada, obviously, but it's good for America, and that's important to the president.

There will be change. I don't think it will be the same agreement going forward. But the core of it, I think, is so important to both sides. And that gives me comfort that we'll continue to trade. Canada, and you heard our prime minister's message, I'm sure we'll talk about that, has to diversify trade. I think we've relied on trade to the U.S. substantially big part of our economy. And I think the conversations that are happening before Davos, after Davos, in Davos are very much about... Here's what we're good at. Can we find a grand bargain deal? Can we expand trade across multiple countries? Well, that's Europe. A lot of discussion with South Asia and Asia and a lot of discussion with the Middle East and investing in Canada. And what's different about Davos this year? Honestly, Lisa, it's risk on Canada. Let's talk about the prime minister's speech. The sharpest tone I've ever heard from Mark Carney about Donald Trump without mentioning Trump's name. He's talking about a new world order saying these middle countries, if you're not at the table, prepare to get eaten. Does that make it harder when you're talking about things like watching the USMCA trade deal? Do you think that the relationship is going to become more challenging between Canada and the United States? I think relationships are about value exchange. And if there's good value exchange and you both see a benefit to that, then you're going to find the right place. So just as I said, there's great value exchange. $400 billion go back and forth across the border every year because there's value. We're the number one trade relationship with 36 states. Most of those are red states at the end of the day. So when we think about the importance of that relationship beyond that federal level into the state level, It's really important. So I think you come back and you say, it's good for America. It's good for Canada. That's a basis for an exchange of value going forward. Having said that, I think the prime minister is very clear that we haven't done our role in defending ourselves. We haven't invested enough of our GDP in defense. And you've seen that commitment to spend that money. We have to do that. We have to increasingly defend ourselves. It's not just our economic security. It's our fiscal security. We have to play a bigger role in that. We have to defend the Arctic. And we have to invest in the Arctic. And it's a big part of the commitment we've made to NATO and we've made to the United States that you'll see a greater investment from Canada. We have to have dual use. investments, not just military, but commercial and economic investments in the Arctic. And Canada should play a role in doing that. So you're seeing that was a big part of his speech yesterday. And we have to create scale. We're in a world of scale. Businesses need scale. Countries need scale. And I think the prime minister's message was we have to continue to diversify, but diversify in a way that you continue to build scale and what you need. So I think that's what I took away. When he says diversify, does it mean maybe a new strategic partnership with China? Is that what you take from the prime minister? You know, the prime minister was just in China a week ago, and it was a very important delegation that he led to China to kind of reset the relationship after, you know, a better part of a decade where the relationship had separated. And part of it was to renew economic ties and to agree on areas where we definitely agree, and to say these are areas where we might not agree, but let's focus on where we agree and where we can build a future together. And I think that was a very positive step. You saw China make a commitment to resume.

buying our canola oil, and that's a very important market for canola, the United States and China, of big markets. We ceded a small part of our automotive market, 3% to Chinese imports. That's an affordability issue. China will bring in affordable electric vehicles. So I think that's good for Canadians at the end of the day. So I think there's more to build on, and I think it's part of diversifying across multiple countries. Okay, so we've gone... all this time without talking about what you actually have done. You just had a year that's phenomenal. You had record revenues for any Canadian bank ever. And you have grown tremendously. You beat all of your targets. I'm just wondering, when you're talking about diversifying businesses, does it go to your business as well? Are you expanding in places like China? Are you still planning to expand in the United States? Our second home market is the United States. We've grown wonderfully in the United States. We just launched a whole new Treasury management platform in the United States, RBC Clear, that's had a great reception. Technology leap. We brought in $25 billion of new money. from U.S. senior corporates fortune kind of 500. So the United States is our second home market and we continue to invest. We lend significantly to U.S. corporates. We lend in the mid-corporate space and the commercial space. And we have the fifth largest high net worth platform in the United States. So the U.S. is very important to us, serving Americans, helping Americans grow. And I told the administration already yesterday that we've invested significantly in the U.S. economy and we're part of the solution. And we feel very welcome in the United States. So it's a big part of our strategy. To your point, our strategy has not included China up until now for all the reasons where we didn't have significant diplomatic ties. We didn't see the basis for that investment. And now we have to review that. I can't say how we would go back in. But if the trade continues to diversify and Canadian corporates invest in China, then we will have to be part of that. What I'm focused on now is the Middle East. significant investment commitments from the Middle East to Canada. I think one of the themes of Davos is Middle East is a great place to invest. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, UAE on that side, Riyadh and Saudi Arabia, significant commitments on both sides. And you'll see a greater presence from RBC in the Middle East as well. So yes, to your point, it's a great question. You're seeing RBC become a more globally connected bank because Canada is going to become a more globally connected country. And the U.S. is already incredibly globally connected country. Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

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We begin this out with stocks slightly lower following the biggest slide in three months as investors search for direction. The Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO Ted Pig has seen it all and he joins us now for more. Ted, good to see you. Guys, thanks for having me. Electric moment. It must be feeling good. I'm feeling good. You're not going to be in this speech in about 28 minutes time? Can I avoid that? Yeah, I'll be with you guys. Let's talk about how things are set up for 26. We've drawn a big distinction between the energy that's coming from European officials and the emotion they have about a place like Greenland. and the optimism that people have for the broader U.S. economy, particularly from bankers regarding the pipeline and the amount of debt issuance we've seen over the past few months, the debt underwriting that you've really benefited from that's going to fund a lot of the transition. How amped up are you about the year ahead? Well, thanks for having me, guys. Great to see you. I'm pretty amped up. You know, we had several years where the M&A activity was going to get going and then COVID happened and then rates roofed and it's taken a while for a tonne glue. But this kind of, in this case, literal noise speaks to C-suite need to act, whether it's to re-globalize or reorient where your operations are, who you want to do business with. And as long as there's activity, we're busy. So cross-border M&A, large-cap M&A. going to be important. AI acts as an accelerant to that too. If you want to actually get after their productivity gains and embedded in AI, you have to have the wherewithal to do it. And if your market cap is 30 or 40 billion, that's tough. You know, how do you take a couple points off your income statement to do that year after year? But if you're $200 billion, maybe you got a shot. So people are thinking bigger. And then the sponsors, as you know, a couple thousand companies that have been sitting there that have billion dollar market caps implied. They need to come. And then very importantly, have these great companies that have been private. And over the last 15 years, we've seen companies go public to defies options or effectively be secondaries. You may actually see great companies that are growth companies, some of them in the AI ecosystem that want to go tap capital. So for the investment bank, a great period. And then for a wealth manager, leading wealth manager in the U.S. in the world, you want to allocate your capital efficiently. So very exciting. Let's unpack some of those business lines. So let's just pick up on the IPO pipeline, the activity we could see later this year. SpaceX, Open AI. We're talking about some absolute monsters. have been historically quite dominant in the tech sector. What are you doing right now to prepare for that moment that might be in our future? Well, these companies, you know, you banked them for a whole bunch of years and you get to know them. So there's a process, obviously, the formal bake-off process, and then the go-or-no-go decision. But typically the company has a pretty good idea of what it wants to do ahead of time because it's selected its group. And the stakes are really high this round because, as you say, the implied market caps, these companies are enormous, but also they are paradoxically. They are very large, but also mega growers. Some of them have a little bit of a change-the-world field to them. So they could become must-own. I mean, one of the things that you guys have talked about, a lot about is so much of the equity base has become either beta or it's become kind of the seven or eight names. Or what if there's some additional companies that three, four, or five hundred billion dollar market caps, trillion, trillion, a half dollar market cap? The active management community says, I want to own that. I want to own that from the time of the IPO. So I think it's not just Wall Street getting to know these companies. It's a whole bunch of investors who have either backed into early rounds or want to be there when the IPO comes. When we were speaking with you a year ago in these seats, you were talking about how it was going to be a great

year for IPOs and M&A, and it was for your bottom line. You had an incredible year. There was, though, a lot of IPOs and a lot of deals that got stymied by Liberation Day and policy uncertainty. What has to go right for some of these deals to come to fruition, open AI, Anthropic, SpaceX? Well, I think part of the reason these companies are so interesting to investors is they are not rushed. to go public. So there has to be an element of being patient if you're in and around the ecosystem. They don't have to come in the first half of 26. They can come in the second half of 26. They can even come in 27. But they are drawing a whole bunch of interest to names like them. Derivative plays in the ecosystem as you sort of disaggregate the entire AI daisy chain. Where do you want to play? So the anticipation of the company going public almost is as important as the company itself coming. But whether they come Lisa in 26 or 26. they're gonna come. They're gonna come. It's sort of a dissonance right now when you talk to business leaders about how much enthusiasm there is for deals and for energy in the U.S. economy. And then when you hear the policymakers, you hear uncertainty and you hear sell America, how do you square those two narratives at a time where you do hear a growing number of investors say they are diversifying away from U.S. assets? I hear you guys talking about this a lot. I think there are two separate phenomena, but they're not exclusive. One is we've got the arc of history. You know, I've gone on about the end. to the end of history and that things would get going again. And the nation states would be battling for egemony and kind of trying to, you know, win out on the rise and fall nations. That's just a historical fact that kind of got, there was an interregnum between Berlin Wall and COVID. We're actually back to the balance of human history as we've all studied. And that means there's going to be the kind of stuff that we are living through right now. It's just been a while. And I don't know necessarily that that is something we should expect to go away anytime soon. There's going to be renationalizing, nationalizing. And that means in some case there'll be higher country risk. There'll be maybe pockets of illiquidity. There may be opportunistic transactions or allocations that happen. But after 20 years of financial oppression, we're back to live markets and live nation states. That's here. But at the same time, you have U.S. capital markets, which are more than half the capital stock. And the reality is very basic. as we know, corporate health is excellent. Consumer health at the top end is excellent. And obviously the administration's getting after housing for the bottom half of the K. Earnings, as you know, grew 8% this year that could grow in the mid-teams next year. That's double the long-term average. That's pretty good. So good corporate, good consumer, excellent capital markets, an easier Fed that lowered by 75. Maybe there's more to go. Maybe it's a demand-driven 2026, in which case the Fed doesn't have to move. We have good inflation.

we keep on powering forward growth, or maybe it's supply side where they're spending, but there isn't the same kind of job creation, then the Fed will help out. So they're downside cases, but just in the main, oh, and the tailwinds of deregulation and the bill are kicking in, it kind of's hard to argue against the 26 U.S.-led growth case. Now, we could get a debate about where asset prices should be, but in terms of just two years ago, we were talking about recession. Last year we weren't sure because the administration's come in. We're not talking about that today. So for our business, very simply, we write tickets to kind of two times GDP nominal. And so if you think about our wealth and investment bank, if we're going to grow, you know, five, ten percent on a two times basis, nominally, that should be pretty good for our business if we're doing our job. Corporate health is very good. It's excellent. Sovereign health is questionable. Right. Can we talk about that? Right. The move in the last 24 hours, the live market stuff, let's get into that. The move in Japan at the long end of the curve. Is that a warning shot? Is that the start of something bigger? Well, I mean, this Japan trade's been talked about forever. And I would expect that in a lot of highly indebted... countries, you know, off the Liz Trust moment where the demographics are poor and you don't have the wherewithal or fiat to kind of work your way through that, there could be some vulnerability. So what does that mean? That means if we're sort of do our economics meets, you know, polyside thing, I think that means you want to get closer to places where you can act in your joint economic interest. And I think the Japanese example is one that we should continue to pay attention to. I wouldn't be surprised we see pocket to that now and then when, you know, there's a little talk of the balance sheet looks lousy, but we're going to inject a little stimulus and let's see if anyone notices. Yeah, they noticed. So, you know, you sort of have to, you know, then you adjust. It's, you know, it's a trial balloon. It gets pulled back, and that's probably healthy for markets. You know, you see a lot of that's been bought back today. But that's different than the U.S. Treasury phenomenon. You know, that's been hugely overblown. The reality is that when we did this a year ago, The Treasury Secretary, as you know, by anyone who was talking about the 10-year being so important to keep an eye on. I think the 10 years around 457, 455, 460. Now it's a 4-20, 4-30. So the 10-year is doing its job. There's some steepening. Yes, it's probably healthy. So I do think there's a conflation between kind of U.S. Treasury phenomenon and the world. And I think there's a difference, and, you know, we just have to continue to highlight the difference. Very quickly, Ted, because you spend time you grew up in Venezuela. New world now. Are you planning to maybe help facilitate companies go back in? I had not prepped for that question. You lived it. Thank you so much. That's what I'm interested, because you have a different take probably than every other CEO walking around this forum. Well, Venezuela is an extraordinary place. Has a proud, but now in recent decades, very troubled history. But is, you know, if you know your Monroe Doctrine, critical and has, albeit, as you've talked about at length, it's more sulfuric, but very high.

vast quantities of oil beneath the ground. So do I think Venezuela is going to be relevant? I think Latin America is going to be relevant. I think the hemisphere is going to be relevant in its sort of thinking around how it wants to get closer while maintaining its own political and social independence from the U.S. But I think it coming together of some places may make some sense and may be in the broader economic interest back to the... previous question. That was a fantastic counsel. Thank you so much. I've got one more. I hope it's not a landmine. There was some news earlier about Deutsche Bank, and I just want to breathe some life into that story. And essentially the Treasury Secretary came out. There was some research that he didn't like. And according to him, the Deutsche Bank CEO has turned around and said, I don't stand by that research. That's basically the point. Is it difficult for the research department of Morgan Stanley to say what they think? in an environment like this one. And I ask this question because I know some tremendous individuals at Morgan Stanley in research. And they are all highly intelligent, capable, and have their own thoughts about where they think we are in this moment right now. But is it difficult in the C-suite to allow them just to go out there full-throat, full-throat or full-blooded and just say what they really think about this moment? Absolutely not. I've not had a piece of research at my desk for a yellow light or a no-go. I think what gets a little tricky is these institutions also have desk analysts. So I don't know if this one came out of the research department or maybe a desk analyst sitting in one of the divisions. But to answer your question directly, we celebrate broad opinion. I do think, but to give not kind of the standard answer, part of the reason you like our research is because it's not just... regurgitation, because we all have a Bloomberg terminal, okay? So it has to have some kind of value add, but it doesn't have to just be provocation for its own sake. So we have industry leaders, we have sector leaders, we have Seth Carpenter, who you pointed out, I was watching you talk to him, and I was quite a moment. When I looked down the bottom of the county, you see that. Starbucks all over my suit. So thanks for that, but that was excellent. You had at least one viewer that day, and that was me. And Seth, but the answer is the independence of research is important. We've invested in it for all these years. That having been said, sort of writing research to just sort of provoke and kind of get your Warhol moment. I mean, that is not really fair to the institution either. And it puts... it puts the particular government or whomever in an awkward spot because they read the research. So I think there's got to be a balance between independent integrity and what you're writing and writing something that actually is meant to add value and bring intellectual capital to the fore. Semi the dry cleaning bill. I saw that out for you. I didn't actually spit it up. I just swallowed and smiled. Thank you, sir. Thank you very much. Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

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Well, starting with one. No, there are several. I think there are several. Senator Paul being another maybe. We've got to start thinking about these other structural decisions that we make that run up the debt already to unacceptable highs. With the froth that we're seeing here with the uncertainty, with the increasing debt, I worry about almost a level of irrational exuberance. We've somehow been able to withstand some of the uncertainty. But there's a proverbial straw out there, and these sorts of decisions could get us closer to breaking up. the camel's back. What does corrective action actually look like? corrective action. What's doable in Washington at the moment? Well, you know, presumably, even if we were to move forward and there was some deal offered to Greenland and to Denmark, that would require congressional approval. The president doesn't have a blank check that he can continue to run up debt. That would require a process in razor-thin margins. And if it's a process that doesn't play out until next year, it's post-election. We've got to know what Congress looks like next year, or they've got to know what Congress looks like next year. The president's squarely focused on November 3rd in this affordability push. Do you expect him to make more phone calls to Senator Elizabeth Warren, another senior member on the banking committee than to you? I actually, Elizabeth Warren and I are friends. We're not political friends, personal friends. But does it bother you? No, the well of the house, I said, Elizabeth, remarkable. You've sold the president on your arbitrary caps on credit. We're no longer going to rate for risk. We're just going to be rating basically what's going to happen. We're going to underbank or unbank a lot of people, and we're going to stabilize the asset-backed securities market along the way. I said, don't get me wrong. It's extraordinary that you've sold the president on this idea, but you know I'm going to do everything I can to kill it. But do you think something will be done when it comes to credit cards? Maybe it's the other bill that's being voted. Even, you know, why would we want to repeat a bad idea? If you're taking a look at MasterCard and Visa, they're working with the small retailer. The retailers have a legitimate concern. And the credit card companies are working that out. We don't need a big government arbitrary solution. We've seen credit card competition acts in Europe, and they've been abject failures. 15 to 70% of all of the travel to... Alaska, for example, are through rewards. The money's got to come from somewhere. Do you think that that travel is going to be funded in the future? Are those sorts of rewards and programs going to be cut? It makes no sense. It's not sustainable. And I think that we have the votes in the Congress to hold it off this Congress. The United States has been known for process. That's one reason why a lot of businesses have invested in the United States and the capital markets that we've created. And I just wonder, as you are here with global business leaders, does it worry you that you hear more investors, more businesses looking to diversify a way?

from the United States because of a lack of predictability of process of policy. We have to do that. I spent nearly 20 years at Pricewaterhouse Coopers and IBM Global Business Services. I would have to tell every client I advised at that time, this is a risk. You've got to reduce your buybox for any sorts of high-risk ventures. And that freezes capital. That tamper's growth. That's the last thing we need right now. Are you going to be in the room in 36 minutes' time? 100%. What are you expecting to hear? I'm expecting to hear President Trump give a speech. And the content of said speech is the one thing I'm certain of. Have you got to read on the content of said speech? No, no. I'll hear it when everybody else hears it. But, you know, I will tell you the reason everybody's probably wondering what still has got the bling on for. This is from, we had a new tribe. The largest tribe east of the Mississippi is the Lummi Indians. They got recognized after 137 years of abuse and neglect. Interestingly enough, they're about the same-sized tribe. 55,000 of the indigenous people in Greenland. I heard a very important comment when I was in Denmark. They say people can trade, but you can't trade people. We need to make everyone understand that those people on the ground have been there for 4,500 years. They want us there, but they want us there in their territory, not American territory, and it can be accomplished much more conservatively, much more sustainably by cooperation. This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV, weekday mornings from 6am to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business Out.

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