Maine's Senate Choice Is Now Graham Platner vs. Susan Collins

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He's for Medicare for all. He's referred to himself as a communist in the past. I'm still trying to figure out where he is on Second Amendment rights, which are very important to Mainers. So you have all that. But I would look at the relationships with women, the treatment of women in the past. And that is, I think... ground where Susan Collins can say that to the women of Maine, this is not someone that you want representing you in the United States Senate. Colin, what do you make of this idea that the Democratic Party might be able to convince Graham Platner to drop out, in which case, my understanding is they would be able to substitute a new candidate at their convention later this year. At least one prominent elected official suggesting this, a congressman Josh Gottheimer. on Tuesday talking to CNN said, I think he's going to get off the ballot soon. You saw reporting from his ex-political director saying that he lied about all this stuff and concerns that she had. The issues are just going to keep piling up. unquote. And there is some truth to that, Colin. Maybe there is another shoe to drop. We have not heard, I think, from all of these former girlfriends or these women that he was exchanging explicit text messages. And if there are some of those women, maybe there are more of those women. On the other hand, this is one of those situations where the only way to force him out of the race is to convince him to drop out. And he does not seem like he is very inclined to do that. He doesn't seem like he's someone who has... much of an institutional bone in his body or care for the Democratic Party brand writ large in the way that another candidate, somebody like, you know, Joe Biden, who dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, really cared about the future of the Democratic Party. And so it's tough coming off a huge victory in this primary that he was not earlier in this campaign, I think, necessarily supposed to win to go to him now and say, now you have to quit. Yeah, I mean, honestly, Kyle, it strikes me as highly unlikely that he would drop out largely for the reasons you mentioned, which are just purely personality ones. I mean, he really strikes me as a fight to the death, never back down, very much sort of in Trump mold, frankly. So I don't know. I just don't give that a lot of credence. I think there seem to be quite a lot of enthusiasm at that victory rally. And, you know, it's one of those things that you have to look at the way he is generating this. real enthusiasm among Maine Democrats, especially younger progressive voters. The outcome of this race was obviously never in doubt after Janet Mills suspended her campaign, but it was also clear that Graham Platner really was exciting the party's progressive base. The early turnout numbers that we've seen for the race so far was that the total primary participation may have actually been higher than recent Maine Senate primaries, which is obviously unusual since he was basically running on opposed. And the fact that that, you know, the polling shows that the, that his turnout was particularly strong in younger areas, coastal and college towns. Those voters were really embracing his sort of outsider insurgent profile and his unap-

apologetic personality. I think that's what they like about him. I think he knows that's what they like about him. And, you know, yeah, as Matt said, there was a protest vote. I think it was about 15 to 20 percent of the votes that went for Janet Mills. So that's not nothing. But I think he's doing a pretty good job strategically straddling the progressive and just, you know, the sort of hyper-local vibe that Mainers like. You know, he's pushing this theme. of they don't know Maine as his campaign slogan. I was laughing watching it because it actually reminds me of the kind of spirit that you usually associate with voters in Texas. But then there's this real progressive element of his campaign, that part that's really linking up with Bernie Sanders and the working man profile of the oyster farmer. So, you know, I think from the progressive standpoint, Democrats are really looking at races like Platoners as experiments with whether these kinds of candidates can win, you know, not just in super progressive places, but in. more moderate places as well, and we'll see how that goes against Susan Collins. Hang tight. We'll be right back in a moment. This podcast is brought to you by Reliocrest. Cybercriminals are constantly attacking. They want your data. They want your identity. They want your innovation. Reliacquest fortifies your business with agentic defense, AI that detects contains and eliminate cyber threats in minutes. It helps your security team move faster at the work that matters most to protect the business now and delivers insights to help them predict what's next. ReliaQuest, agentic defense for the enterprise. Learn more at ReliQuest.com. That's r-E-L-I-A-Q-U-E-S-T.com. I'm Matthew Hennessy, the editor of Free Expression, the new daily newsletter from the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal. Free expression is a little different than what you get in the print paper's opinion section. We've expanded things out a little bit. We have a great mix of columnists, including Matt Contenetti, Louise Perry, and Kyle Smith. You also get frequent, sharp contributions. from my editorial colleagues. And we publish outside contributors too, from rock star economists like Tom Soul to real rock stars like John Androsic and David Drayman. You can sign up for free expression by going to the journal's homepage and looking for the free expression tab. We're also on substack, Twitter, Instagram, threads, and TikTok, if that's your sort of thing. Sign up for free expression today and we'll see you in your inbox tomorrow. Welcome back. Part of the dynamic here on the Democratic side, Matt, I think is reflective of the political strength of Susan Collins in Maine. And her last race, all the polls had her behind. And then she won by something like eight or nine points in the end. And so if you look at the Tuesday Democratic primary for governor in Maine, It is a very crowded field with names that people are used to seeing on a ballot. Shenna Bellows, the Secretary of State, Hannah Pingree, former Speaker of the Main House, Troy Jackson, former president of the Maine, Angus King III, the son of Angus King, the senator from Maine, Nurav Shah, number two at the CDC under Joe Biden. And it seems like part of what happened here is that...

Nobody on the Democratic side really wanted to take on Susan Collins, who has turned out to be kind of a political Houdini. And another piece of the puzzle here is simply that Susan Collins is, I think, an extremely hard... worker. This past week, she cast her 10,000th consecutive roll call vote in the Senate. She is the Cal Ripkin Jr. of the United States Senate. She has never missed a roll call vote her entire life, you know, and add that to the moderate centrist figure that she cuts politically. I mean, she's in the Republican Party, but opposed to the weaponization fund. It can be difficult, I think, for candidates who want to take her on to try to figure out what the angle is. And that is part of what happened here at the Democratic Party as well. Now the governor's race for those candidates that I mentioned earlier are in double digits. They're going to do a ranked choice runoff. But potentially, if there is some possibility, and I tend to agree with Colin that it's slim, that Graham Platner would drop, at some point, some of those people who have been running campaigns are going to be freed up for doing something else. No, that's true. That's true. And the primaries in Maine in general are very interesting. There's also a competitive Democratic. primary to replace retiring Congressman Jared Golden in Maine's second district. It's a huge district. It encompasses most of the state and kind of the forests and the lake areas interior to Maine. And the Republican, his former governor, Paul LaPage, is running to replace Jared Colton. He ran unopposed. He's going to have some time now where he can benefit from having a denomination while the two Democrats fighting to replace him are struggling in a runoff. Remember, that would be a Republican pickup in a highly competitive House contest right now if LaPage replaces Golden. You listed all of Susan Collins' amazing attributes. There's one other attribute, Kyle, and that is she is a Republican senator running for reelection in a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024. That is very rare. We have very few split delegations, and of course, Trump won every swing state in 2024. So if the Democrats are going to pick up a seat, they would think that it would be the state of Maine. And the combination of Susan Collins' unique political personality, she is not known as MAGA or as an ally of Trump's even, you know, kind of maybe a someone who's an institutionalist in the line of Mitch McConnell and Graham Platner's inexperience. He's 41 years old. He's never run for office before. He was recruited, it seems, by the Democratic Socialists of America to enter that vacant space that you just mentioned because no establishment Democrat was willing to challenge Susan Collins this time. And all of these ethical and I believe ideological controversies surrounding Graham Platner. He also supports, we should say, Medicare for All, which was a real anchor on Democratic candidates.

in 2020 in particular when you make that a contest. So I think from a democratic perspective, they're kind of stuck with Graham Platner. And they might have to spend more money defending what they were hoping, or rather trying to pick up a seat that they were hoping would be an easy layup. They can't win Maine. I think the question comes down to, well, how do they expect to win states that Trump won by double digits? States like Ohio. States like Alaska, states like potentially Iowa. These are all places where Democrats have their eyes set to take over the Senate. But if Maine is a continual challenge, I think it makes their goal of reclaiming control of the United States Senate. all the more difficult. Matt mentions Graham Platner's support for Medicare for all. And that's the other piece of what would be a dynamic in a Graham Platner versus Susan Collins race in November is just that he has staked out some positions on policies and programs that are very far to the left and not only on health care, but. you know, Supreme Court reform, putting term limits on the justices. And to my mind, that is kind of a half-baked idea given that the justices have lifetime tenure under the Constitution. But it does suggest to me that if the Democratic consensus in 2029 under maybe a new Democratic president is to add justices to the Supreme Court that Graham Platner would probably not be the guy standing in the way to say no. He's talking about banning right-to-work laws across the states. I'd encourage people to go to the platform section of his website and just peruse. I mean, here's one on child care, children under six. need the same level of public investment and support as those over six, which certainly sounds like some kind of national child care program that is supposed to be comparable to the kind of elementary schools that people have in their cities and towns across the country. It's also the tone, Colin. It almost makes Bernie Sanders look like a ray of sunshine, the angry way that he approaches these kinds of things. And I get that Maine is not a red state. It's a state that Kamala Harris won. I also wonder if it is really as far populist and as far left as Graham Platner seems to think. Yeah, I agree with that. I don't think he's really thought these things through terribly carefully, to be honest. I think he just kind of wants to spin the wheel on populism. I'm not sure he understands the issues or the policies or he's done any particular deep dives. I think he's just going to go along with the wildest of the progressive Elizabeth Warren-style ideas and, you know, the populist ideas that are capturing the electorate right now, left and right. And I think to your point, stylistically, absolutely, he's just no holds barred, no apologies. I think you're not going to find from him a tone of moderation. As far as the main electorate goes, it is an unusual electorate. I mean, as you mentioned, he's sort of walked the line on Second Amendment issues because there's a lot more support for gun rights there, even among the Democratic electorate than in some other states. But I wouldn't lose sort of track of the fact that a main theme in

any of these races in Maine right now. That's certainly true for Graham Platner Susan Collins, but also for the governor's race is going to be affordability and the cost of living. So, you know, to the extent that there's an ideological component or philosophy that he's going to spin out, I think it has to be focused on those really economic issues, you know, not just all about his personality and outsider status and, you know, willingness to just throw down with all of the national progressive ideas. You know, it has to be about these local issues, housing and health care access and general economic competitiveness as well. Hang tight. We'll be right back after one more break. Planning for retirement and all the things that go with it can be stressful. That's why Fisher Investments partners with you to understand your unique goals and needs so that they can build a tailored plan that helps you achieve a comfortable retirement. Whether you need help with financial planning, estate planning, tax optimization, or social security, Fisher has specialists to help. Fisher Investments. Now that's clearly different wealth management. Learn more at Fisher Investments.com. Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Don't forget, you can reach the latest episode of Potomac Watch anytime. Just ask your smart speaker, play the Opinion Potomac Watch podcast. From the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch. Welcome back. Let's start to South Carolina. Also, some notable primaries there on Tuesday. In the Senate race, Lindsey Graham, the incumbent, well-known South Carolinian, over the 50% threshold, avoiding a runoff. There was some question about whether we would get round two in that Senate race. And then the gubernatorial race, a lot of candidates there. It looks like another win, maybe. Matt, despite the runoff that's going to be held for President Trump's endorsement. Yes, that's right. South Carolina had some fascinating results, Kyle. You mentioned Lindsey Graham with 57% avoiding the runoff, actually a slight improvement, just barely by about a point over his performance in the 2020 South Carolina primary, where he also had a challenge from the, say, the more fiestier MAGA Republican wing or the restrainer America First Republican wing. Lindsey Graham defeats that. In the governor's race, I think the real finding worth noting is a Republican congressman Nancy Mace, who has had a very erratic career going from kind of a more establishment type, defense-oriented Republican with her very interesting background to now being an ally of soon-to-be former Congressman Thomas Massie and a promoter of the Epstein story and all the theories surrounding that. She came not in second, not in third, not in fourth.

But in fifth place with 12% of the vote, that's quite a stunning result. And what the combination of the Mace and Graham contest says to me is the so-called MAGA influencers continue to show that they have very little influence over actual Republican voters. This has been the trend. Throughout this primary season, if you think about it, the Democratic Party has been embracing its anti-Israel, anti-war pro-socialist wing, while the Republican Party has been rejecting the anti-Israel, anti-Trump, Epstein conspiracist parts of the party. And I think that's a very interesting result. I think we should also note, that among the winners in yesterday's primaries on the Democratic side was Congressman Jim Clyburn, a very important figure in South Carolina politics and in Democratic politics nationwide. He's credited for saving Joe Biden's presidential campaign in 2020. Jim Clyburn's district was threatened with redistricting to be redistricted out, but in fact, the South Carolina legislature prevented that from happening. And now he's been renominated for Congress for what will be his 18th term. And at the age of 85, his birthday is next month. So happy birthday in many ways for Representative Jim Clyburn. To run down the numbers in this Republican gubernatorial primary, the Trump-endors candidate is Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, who is currently in lead with about 30% of the vote, 95% of the vote in. Number two, also going into this GOP runoff is the State Attorney General Alan Wilson with about 26%. A couple other candidates, and then Nancy Mace, as Matt says, is running in fifth with about 12% of the vote. That is striking, Colin. If you are someone who is interested in politics, pays attention from a state not named South Carolina, I suspect there are people who will say, oh, yeah, I have heard of Nancy Mace, but Pamela, a vet, the lieutenant governor. I have never heard of that person in my life. And it is interesting and useful maybe to see situations like this where candidates who are very loud and very online and very good at making spectacles and getting attention for themselves. are maybe not succeeding at the ballot box next to some of these old-fashioned, more buttoned-down politicians. Yeah, I think maybe her decline is the only good sign of performative politics, you know, not running every single race. You know, this is obviously an interesting one because it's another place where, you know, Trump decided to exact revenge against her because she pushed for releasing the Epstein files. And, you know, as far as these two others who are rising, I think they don't have anywhere near the same kind of name record. But now you have a situation where, you know, Nancy Vase may just join the ranks of, you know, John Cornyn and Kentucky, Rob Thomas Massie, who was an ally on the Epstein Files and Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy is sort of getting booted out just by...

Trump's will and frustration. The lawmakers that are now being elevated, I think in the Republican Party are not really connected by any particular ideological consistency or a set of beliefs. It's just a matter of who Trump is favoring on a given day. But his favorites in the primaries or, you know, in ranked choice voting aren't necessarily going to translate in the general elections. Thank you, Colin and Matt. Thank you all for listening. You can email us at PW Podcast at WSJ.com. If you like the show, please hit that subscribe button. And we'll be back tomorrow with another edition of Potomac Watch. This podcast is brought to you by Reliakest. Cybercriminals are constantly attacking. They want your data. They want your identity. They want your innovation. Reliacquest fortifies your business with agentic defense, AI that detects, contains and eliminate cyber threats in minutes. It helps your security team move faster at the work that matters most to protect the business now and delivers insights to help them predict what's next. ReliaQuest, agentic defense for the enterprise. Learn more at ReliQuest.com. That's r-E-L-I-A-Q-U-E-S-T.com.