Erick Erickson HR 1 8/7/26

At Great Wolf Lodge, your whole family can go on an adventure. Splash away in our water park and bowl a perfect score with your pack and mix game time with family time. And at Great Wolf Lodge, all this excitement is just a short drive away. So bring the pack together and learn more at Great Wolf.com and strengthen the pack. Seems conversationalists. It's an open line Friday. 8779773-745. Delighted to have you with me. Text Eric E R-I-C-K. To stay on top of everything, get the show notes. You're going to get the briefing, the show notes that come out right at noon, my stack of stuff. And there is a lot of the stack of stuff today. And we've got to get to the top thing and the top of the stack of stuff. And that's the economy. The economy is not doing great right now. We have the new jobs numbers, and the jobs numbers are not good. Now, there is something that is getting lost in the interpretation of the jobs numbers, and that is that while the economy lost 25,000 jobs, most of those jobs lost are government jobs, and the private sector did grow slightly. The problem is this. The sector of the private sector that grew is health care because more people are getting old and we need more doctors and nurses and men and women in hospitals to take care of old people. The markets are up right now and they're up because the jobs report is so bad. Why? Because they now think, well, maybe the Fed won't raise interest rates. Maybe they'll cut them. I mean, CNBC says it all. This is the headline. U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July. And then the subheading, odds the Fed will hike in September tumble. Treasury yields drop on surprise job loss. This is from CNBC. The U.S. economy saw an unexpected decline in jobs during July while the unemployment rate edged lower. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Non-farm payroll fell by a ceasily adjusted 23,000 jobs compared with a downward revised 20,000 for June. So we revised June down to 20,000 jobs lost. The Dow had been looking for a gain of 83,000. At the same time, unemployment slipped to 4.1% as the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%, its lowest in more than five years. Another indication fewer Americans are looking for jobs. In addition to the weak numbers for June and July, the final count for May was revised down to 63,000 jobs or 66,000 lower than estimated. The revised numbers brought the 12-month average down to just 34,000 new jobs created in the last year.

The drop was led by a 50,000 decline in local government, education, and a loss of 19,000 retail jobs. Financial activities also posted a fall of 14,000, and leisure and hospitality lost 40,000, a possible consequence of the World Cup ending. Healthcare, which has been the leading sector for job creation, rose by 22,000, which was below its 12-month average of 36,000. Construction saw an increase of 22,000. By the way, a lot of that is data center construction. Private payroll did increase for the month up $30,000 as government jobs declined by $53,000. Jobs held flat, worker pay saw virtually no gain. In fact, this is the other big one. Average hourly earnings increased by just two cents. That brings wage growth to 3.2% annually, which is lower than inflation right now. For the last two days, we've talked about $20 burritos that really don't exist in the wild, except with few exceptions or adding double steak at Chipotle. The real problem here, as I've been pointing out, is that wages are falling behind inflation. And like two weeks ago, I said on here that it looked like wages were now increasing above inflation again, and now the number is absolutely not. So your income, now your personal, this is all Americans combined, not you personally or me personally. But all Americans combined, wages have gone up by two pennies. Woo-hoo! The problem is inflation has gone up by five pennies, so you've actually lost money. That's a problem. And guess who holds the White House? Not Joe Biden. And we can say this is fallout from Joe Biden, but it's not just fallout from Joe Biden. There are a couple of things we need to know. One, yep, one of the reasons for joblessness is a loss of government jobs, but these were local government jobs, not state government jobs, and where do the local government jobs get lost? Schools, school consolidation, fewer kids going to school. They're shutting down schools. Local government jobs. Parents are opting out from school choice. They're going to private schools now. So local government, local schooling, public schooling is losing jobs across the nation. But also, the private sector jobs that are hiring, they're not hiring young people. Young people are not getting jobs. Young people are struggling to get jobs. Also, the other red alert for the economy is the people who've given up looking for jobs. These are not just people jumping to retirement, mind you. There are three classes of people who are not looking for work anymore. One, deported immigrants.

There's a factor in this. In fact, the big talking point on the right today, and if you're listening to other right-wing talk shows, this is what you're going to hear, is that actually what happened is we deported so many people. That's not actually what the data shows, though. That's what some of the data shows. Some of the data is, the decline in workforce participation is because of deportations. Some of it. Some of it is because of people retiring. They've dropped out of the workforce because they've retired. So the workforce participation rate goes down. You don't have illegal aliens in the job force anymore. Workforce participation goes down. You don't have people who just retired in the workforce. Workforce participating goes down. But what's the biggest chunk according to the data? People who've given up looking. They can't find a job. And you know what this hits the hardest, according to the data, is the 40 to 50-something-year-old white guy. The 40-to-50-something-year-old white guy, when he loses a job in his industry, almost can never find a job again in his industry. They get blackballed because their wage would be too high for employers to want to hire them. They tend to be more costly on medical insurance because of the age of their kids and themselves and their spouse. So once you lose your job as a middle-aged white guy, you're screwed. And that's what this is showing. There is no economic incentive right now for employers to hire middle-aged white guys. You can hire a middle-aged black guy, middle-aged Hispanic guy. Don't hire the Asians and the whites because that'll run afoul of DEI. And major corporations in this country are still, even though they've changed the name of the divisions, they're calling it DEI. That shows up in the data. Middle-aged white guys are struggling to find work. 51% of the new jobs created in Trump's economy since he took office in January 2020, go to women. 51%. But young people are struggling, too. You see, older people who are on Medicare and their kids are out of the house, they can get jobs because they're on Medicare and they don't have a bunch of kids to put on health care. These are problems, and they're problems for the president and their problems for the GOP. And there are incentives that could be given for hiring, but it's politically toxic to try to write the law that would incentivize the hiring of these middle-aged people. Again, many of them white guys. I mean, again, I have lost track with the guy. I was trying to help find a job, but he was in his mid-40s and has a daughter with special needs, was in tech, did SAP programming and stuff, and Can't Fight a Job, was on the unemployment line for over a year, like two or three years, lost his job at a major tech company in Nashville and can't find a new job in the sector.

wound up having to sell, he was a golf nut, had massive amounts of golf equipment, and started having to sell it on eBay, some rare stuff to be able to make money to help pay for his kids' health care because he couldn't find a job. I don't know that he still found a job. If you're a middle-aged white guy, it's hard to get a job once you've lost a job in your current industry. Also, while this is happening, we have new data that copper has spiked. The cost of copper has spiked. The cost of copper has spiked for a couple of reasons. One is the electronics demand for data centers. The demand is so great for copper right now because of the data centers and electronics and technology, it's spiked. You know what else has caused the spike? Yep, you're not going to like me saying it because it sounds like a broken record, but it's true. You can't hide from the truth tariffs. Because we're tariffing them, the price has gone up even more, and other countries have restricted access to copper into the United States. Did you know that? Other countries are so mad about the tariffs on copper and aluminum and steel and lumber that they are deprioritizing importation into the United States. Aluminum has gone up as a result as well. The data center buildout in this country has caused prices to spike from microchips, cause prices to spike for computer chips generally, cause prices to spike for copper, caused prices to spike for aluminum, cause prices to spike for steel, but also the tariffs have contributed as well. and additional countries like Canada and Central and South American countries and Asian countries, the copper smelters and aluminum smelters and the like have reprioritized trade with other countries other than the United States and protest of the tariffs, which is also contributed to the price increase. That price increase then lowers wages, which aren't keeping up with inflation, also raises unemployment and also raises prices. And the Republicans won't get rid of the tariffs. In fact, the president is trying to impose new tariffs. You can't win a culture war if you can't make people's pocketbooks feel better. And you can tell people all you want that the economy is doing better and prices are coming down and wages are going up. But when wages, according to the date, are being eaten up by inflation, you've got a problem. And this is a problem for the GOP headed into November. But I've given you the bad news first because there are silver linings for the GOP as well. There are. People are really upset about the economy. They don't feel like it's working for them. They blame Trump and the Republicans for it. But they're also signaling that they don't think the Democrats have solutions. In fact, what's interesting is you're seeing some people on the right, they're suddenly excoriating Milton Friedman, who is taken off, by the way, with the kids on Twitter. Milton Freeman is one of the most popular. There's an account that posts Milton Freeman clips on TikTok, is one of the most popular accounts on TikTok.

And it's a time that the post-liberal right, the JD Vance crowd of the right, they are turning on Milton Friedman. They never liked him. They were Democrats to begin with. And they're offering Democrat light solutions. And you know what's so hilarious about this is for years, many of the people who are now offering socialist light solutions to combat the socialists were the people attacking the GOP for being Democrat light. So they want more government regulation, just not what the socialist want. You know that where the biggest costs are going in this country? Pay attention to this. This is true. Housing costs are going up. Healthcare costs are going up. Education costs are going up. Food costs are going up. Do you know what all those have in common? They're the ones most controlled by the government. Everything the government has the biggest say in in the country is seeing prices go up. Clothing prices are coming down. The government doesn't do a lot with clothing these days. Car prices starting to go back down. Government really doesn't do a lot with cars, although they'd go down faster but for the aluminum and steel tariffs and copper tariffs. But the sectors of the economy where the government is most involved, particularly health care and housing and education, Those are the ones going up the highest. Those are the ones where the government is most involved. The solution from the right should not be, we need the government to deal with this. The solution from the right should be get the government out of this. They can't build a high-speed rail and they can't build a house either. get the government out of building houses and building high-speed rail and get the government out of education subsidy, and suddenly costs will go down for people. There are a lot of people who are barely breaking even. They're living in $300,000 houses. They can barely make ends meet. That's the cheapest house they could get themselves into. We don't want to be a nation of renters. We want families to build up equity long-term in their home for their family to have generational wealth, and they're struggling to do it in this economy. And Republicans, if you want to fight the culture war, to fix the economy. And the saving grace for the GOP right now is that there are growing numbers of voters out there who suggest the Democrats will only make it worse than the GOP, so why hand things back to them? And yes, that is something the GOP can use to win. Have something to say? Hello. Hello. Call the show. 1-877-97-airing. That's 1-877-97-7-4-25.

All the information without this spin. It's the Eric Erickson show. Last night was another good night for endorsements. Began the tweet. Getting a lot of attention today. The president of the United States. And I quote, last night was another good night for endorsements, eight to one. And the one was a person who I remained loyal to, even though he had virtually no chance of winning and was running against a great Trump candidate and former Agriculture Commissioner of Tennessee named Charlie Hatcher. Good luck, Charlie. Run tough and hard. You have my complete and total endorsement, President Donald J. Trump. Donald Trump endorsed Andy Ogles in Tennessee Congressional District. I think it was District 5. It had stretched from Nashville and now was refigured and covered the Memphis area more. And Andy Ogles ran a terrible campaign. Earlier this summer, Punch Bowl News and out of D.C. pointed out he wasn't raising money. He wasn't spending money on ads. He wasn't doing anything. He was relying on the Trump endorsement to get him across the finish line. And he lost to Charlie. Hatcher, the ag commissioner, former ag commissioner endorsed by Bill Lee, Bill Lee, the governor of Tennessee willing to defy a Trump endorsement. And now Donald Trump is following Bill Lee's lead in endorsing Charlie Hatcher, who by the way is a great Republican. But what's notable is that a left-wing clean energy group provided massive amounts of funding to raise Charlie Hatcher's name ID. Why? This is something you've got to follow along with here. A left-wing clean energy group from California elevated Charlie Hatcher against Andy Ogles and Andy Ogles in the Freedom Caucus lost. They don't like Charlie Hatcher, but they hate Andy Ogles because Andy Ogles, they're very principled conservative, has defied a lot of clean energy regulations. Same with Chip Roy in Texas. Chip Roy in the Freedom Caucus was considered very unreasonable to the clean energy movement, hated solar and wind, and they ran a bunch of money against Chip Roy and caused Chip Roy's defeat in the Attorney General race in Texas. The clean energy left is picking off principled conservatives. members of MAGA in favor of more establishment picks on the right. And Donald Trump is wrapping his arms now around the establishment pick. And by the way, Hatcher's totally a great candidate. And Andy Ogles ran a terrible campaign. And, well, Andy Ogles lost. The GOP will keep the seat. Now, you need to keep your peace of mind. You need to keep it when your phone rings day and night with people telling you they can give you loans or help you with the IRS, even though you don't need it or you name it. And, well, Incogni can help you. I N-C-O-G-N-I. I use Incogni and I have now for a while in large part because I was getting those ads or those phone calls all the time from people offering me loans. And it was just telemarketer scams.

Well, the telemarketers get your information from data brokers online, and Incogni makes the data brokers delete your information. If they can't get your data from the data brokers, they can't call you. And Incogni gets the data brokers, the middleman, to take down your information, so the telemarketers and scammers can't get your information. Incogni.com slash Eric. You can save up to 60% incogni.com slash Eric, E, R-I-C-K. incogny i n c-o-g-n-i incogny dot com slash eric sign up with incogny today save 60% stop your phone ringing hello america welcome look i'll get to your phone calls here in a minute but i have got to well i got to i got to talk to you for a little bit first because there's a lot of news there's a lot of news oh wait hang on what's this All righty. Oh, lucky my wife. So my wife texting to say she's going to take a nap, y'all. Oh, you know, okay, yeah, I'm going to say this. So today was the first day of school for my son's senior year in high school. And some of the parents decided that everybody should get up and go have like a prayer breakfast at school and have the kids last first breakfast at school. And I was like, I've been watching my son eat breakfast. For 17 years, I'm not getting up early to go watch you meet breakfast. And I might have been the only parent. My wife went. My wife went. My son was like, I don't care. I'm not eating breakfast. Like, a lot of, a lot of people have their first kid graduated. And we're like, we've been, we've done this rodeo before and trying to find the balance there of participation and everything. It's just, it's going to be funny this year. um with my son and his this is this is last year in high school so i i'm planning a a big family trip next year i'm really hoping i win this power ball so i can uh put my wife on a private plane to take her to roam next year because i don't i don't think she's up for commercial flying with her immune system and all but i am looking at a trip it's it's wild to think that my wife and i are like a year from being empty nesters now we're going to have to like find ways to do hobbies because we don't do much anymore together. You know, I interviewed John Deloney a while back, and he's invited us up to Nashville in October the week after our 26th anniversary. So we're going to go to some couples retreat up there. Oh, that reminds me. I've got to take that day off from work. But it should be good just like, how do you develop new hobbies after you've been parents for what all these years now, 20 years? And... It's kind of be a wild ride. Our son's last year in high school, and then off to college he goes, and there's nobody left at home except us and the dog. But I wasn't going to start there. This is where I intend to start. My buddy and Dean, I...

Karen Gannis, Dean Kerriennis, I'm butching your name, Dean, and we text back and forth, and I'm terrible with your last name, but I love you, buddy. And Dean worked for Rush for years. He's a great guy. He's also a columnist of the New York Sun, and he's got this piece. President Trump is urging Republicans to get tougher, laying out the dangers of the communist agenda that several Democratic candidates are advocating. It is a test of whether the case can be made or if it will smack too much of McCarthyism in the 1950s Red Scare. Thursday on true social, Mr. Trump called it great news for the Republican Party that a Senate candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, had won Michigan's Democratic nomination. In a speech at Las Vegas's Red Rock Resort, the president called Abdul El-Sayed a communist loser who had beaten a mere socialist despite having heartful of hate. branding and insulting is Mr. Trump's standard energy. He also delved into policy. Democrat communist, he said, claimed to stand for working people while hiding dark truths. What they don't say and what Republicans should say is that at the end of the year, you'll have nothing but death, squalor, and poverty. Trump is not wrong there. The question is when Republicans aren't doing great on the economy and people are blaming the Republicans, can the Democrats turn it around? And I don't know that the Democrats can. And here's why. I don't know that the Democrats can, and I do think the Republicans can turn it around because I want to play you this clip. This is David Hogg. He was on CNN, and he was talking about the Democratic Party embrace. moderate Democrats. David Hogg, well, let me just let him talk in his own words. There's been an argument that they need to moderate or concern over what that's going to look like should they succeed or that they may not succeed, that they might be defeated by Republicans despite them not doing well in the polling either. What would you say to the moderates in your party who feel that way? I would say to the moderates our party, you need to figure out how to actually offer something new to voters that isn't just the same message that you gave them in 2024. Increasingly, the reason why the establishment of our party is being defeated over and over and over again is...

It's because they don't have the right values that are aligned with not the Democratic base, but the American people where people are sick and tired of listening to Democrats and tell them all the reasons why they can't solve their problems. If you can't solve our problems, you shouldn't be running for office. Moderates don't have the right values, according to David Hogg. Moderates don't have... the right values. That's David Hogg. David Hogg, you know, the Democrats have a habit of trotting out victims of trauma and giving them undeserved credibility. Why is David Hogg a person of note in the Democratic Party right now? Because he was at the Parkland School shooting. and became an anti-gun activist and used his... trauma and his theater kid background to become something. It reminds me of Cindy Sheehan. Remember her? Cindy Sheehan was unaccomplished. The only thing that happened of tragedy in her life is her son died in the Iraq war. And so she used her son dead bodies in the memory of it to trot down to Crawford Ranch in Texas and move on.org. And the Democrats elevated her as some credible spokeswoman. She was crazy and traumatized to begin with, like David Hogg having gone through the school. shooting, but the Democrats, being crazy and traumatized, gives you authenticity and gives you moral claims. David Hogg is an spectacularly unaccomplished young man who only got into the Kay Ivey League because he was a progressive Democratic activist who had been through a traumatic school shooting and was a school activist. He didn't get there on grades or any other credibility, and now he gets trotted out to be somebody. He was pushed out of the Democratic Party, and now he wants... the socialist rise. Remember, he's a character witness for Graham Platner. And he says, the moderates have no place of the Democratic Party. And this is good for the GOP. It's good for the GOP because, well, the GOP is not doing well in the polling, but concurrently they are running against a bunch of crazy people. This is Noah Rothman. Well, that should be Noah Rothman. Let's see if I can get his audio file to work here. Noah Rothman was on Fox News talking about the craziness of the Democrats out there. But at what cost? Because there are moderates that look at this and they think, I don't want to be a part of this party anymore. Or I'm just going to leave politics altogether. This is actually Speaker Johnson predicting that old school Democrats are going to leave over all of this. Watch. What do you think that says about the Democratic Party? And what does that mean for Republicans? It's exactly what we predicted what happened is going to be more disarray in the party. The establishment Democrat Party is in real trouble. I think you're going to have the old school Democrats leaving the party. I think this party is going over the cliff. What are they going to do? Well, we'd welcome them if they want to get on board with American principals.

I don't know if they're going to the Republican Party and John Fetterman hasn't left yet, but what do you think about this? Well, there are two things going on here, right? There is the socialism and there's the anti-Westernism. So on the socialism side, I thought that graphic was fun, the survey, which found that among self-described democratic socialists, only 60% support socialism. You'd think they would have examined their own views a little more carefully. And as he said, else I will say, I'm a capitalist. I'm not a socialist. I only want to nationalize the health insurance industry, eliminate border control, and confiscation. wealth from the wealthy, not to do anything with it, but to level the social playing field. But I'm not a communist. You can argue that, and you should. But the deal breaker among Democrats has been the anti-Westernism, evinced by Abdul El-Sayed, and evinced in particular by his support for anti-Western Islamist terrorist organizations, if not their actions, at least their motives and their goals. That's what's breaking the Democratic Party here. Good. I want to see more of it. And that's what Republicans should harp on. As much as the communism, as much as the far left socialism, it's the anti-Westernism. It is the anti-Westernism, and it only gets worse. You know, Hasan Piker is a guy who's campaigning for the left. The left now loves the guy. The left wants Hasan Piker's endorsement. They seek it out. He said the United States deserve 9-11, and now he claims that it is Islamophobia to bring that up. At some point, we got to realize, like, this 9-11 stuff is just only being weaponized. as a way to make Muslims and Muslim candidates look bad. Like, it's a, it's a permission structure for Islamophobia. It's ridiculous, dude. It's so, it's, it's so ridiculous. It's so racist. It's so ridiculous. It's so racist. Bro, it's Islamophobia to point out, I said America deserve 9-11. These are who the Democrats are putting up to run for office. They reject the moderates. They want the socialists and the communists. The socialist and the communists hate the country. Say we had an illegitimate founding. They want to get rid of the constitutional institutions of the United States. A lot of Americans are looking at the economic data right now. They're mad at the GOP. They blame Donald Trump and the Republicans. And they look at the Democrats and say, we can't put these people back in office. Now, if you got the show notes today. You text Eric to 33777 and you got the show notes. We put this in. This is data from Patrick Grafini. I've told you how the polling is right now. There's a story out there. The Democrats are looking at the Senate map now. And the Democrats suddenly think they might pick up Kansas. James Talarico is ahead in Texas slightly in the polling average, not the individual polls. Sherrod Brown is ahead of John Husted in Ohio, not by much. What's interesting is it's neck in neck now in Michigan between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers.

Patrick Ruffini pointed this out today. You're not imagining a summer polling bump for Democrats in Senate races. Combining all 2018 to 24 polls, pro-dem bias peaks at D plus 5.9 in the summer and ends up at D plus 2.6 by Election Day. In other words, as I've told people forever, people start paying attention to elections. After Labor Day, Democrats tend to pay attention during the summer. Why do Republicans not pay attention to polling during the summer and pay attention to election during the summer? Because they have families and they're on vacation. So on my flagship station, August 1st becomes all hands on deck. Why? Because in the South, in Georgia, school starts the first week of August. So it becomes all hands on deck. the first week in August. And you don't take vacation the month of August. You're on the radio every weekday in August because people are going back to school. Everybody's paid attention. During the summer, everybody's gone. People are paying attention to the baseball games. People are paying attention to summer travel ball. People are going to the beach. They're plotting their trips to the beach or the mountains. And then they're planning going back to school. The Democrats overwhelmingly. They don't have kids at home. They are engaged in politics. They're not going to church. They're going to protest. And so during the summer, the Democrats are more likely to talk to pollsters. The Democrats are more engaged with pollsters. And the urban white Democrats in particular are the most engaged. You get past Labor Day. And suddenly Republicans are like, all right, elections coming. I've got to start paying attention. And they start getting engaged. What do you see? The polling for Democrats declines. The polling for Republicans go up. Now, if you're a long-time listener of mine, you know this. It's why I bring up the polling and where the trends are in the summer, but I also tell you to pay attention after Labor Day. Because after Labor Day, polls really start mattering, and Patrick Crafini's got the data there. There is a distinct summer bias for Democrats, particularly for Senate races, not House races, but Senate races. There are also a lot fewer polls during the summer. The polling picks up in September, and you can say the polls are wrong, Eric said. I always get people who complain to me about talking about the polls, but the polls are relevant because they do show snapshot trends. And when you add them all together and get an average, the polling trends, the polling averages have been pretty accurate at where things are headed in the nation. But for Democrats right now who are rubbing their hands just gleeful, they're having their Mr. Burns moment of telling Smithers to go out there and win the day for him, summer polling gives you a boost of confidence. You got Chuck Schumer out there. There's literally a story out there today that Chuck Schumer is telling Democrats privately. We got a chance in Kansas because our top guy won. No, you don't. At least I'll believe it when the polling shows me that after Labor Day. What I see right now is that voters are really angry with President Trump and they're angry with Republicans about the economy. And they're like, we still got to stick with them because the Democrats are even worse. And that's not great news for the GOP, but it is something for the GOP to head into November. And by the way, if Cory Mills loses in Florida.

And those of you listening to me in Florida right now, you need to go vote against Cory Mills. If you live in his district, you need to go throw everything you have against him because if he wins, the Democrat can win that district. And you better believe me, in Ohio, Max Miller may be getting out of the race this weekend. The president's trying to get him out because he's behind the polls right now. And you can say, Eric, so you just said this awesome. Yes, but he's so far behind. the Democrat right now, and Republicans in Ohio are seeing his impact on the governor and Senate races in Ohio. They're really concerned that Max Miller could cost them three races, and the Republicans are concerned. Cory Mills will cost them a race in Florida. If you get Miller and you get Mills out of those races for better Republicans, they're actually, they're not even odds, but close odds. The GOP might be able to hold on to the House. Why? Because people may not like the president. but they positively hate the socialists. Honest. Putting your trust in me to tell you what's going on. Transparent. I need you to know this from the bottom of my heart. Giving you the information without the noise. My job isn't to tell you what you want to hear. It's the Eric Erickson Show.

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