Jon Favreau Ranks Michigan Primary Hot Takes

You have a very progressive Muslim candidate named Abdul El-Sayed who was outspent 11 to 1 and took on the entire Democratic establishment in D.C. and in Michigan and won. So that is something in a state like Michigan, right? Which is we're not talking about New York City. We're not talking about a deep blue district. Yeah. So that is that is noteworthy. I'm Jane Koston, and this is what a day. The show that is so comforted to know that while the war in Iran continues to spiral, an American deal with an ever-increasing cost of living, the vice president of the United States, JD Vance, is laser focused on calling a Washington Post columnist fat on Twitter. On today's show, we talked to Pod Save America's John Favreau about the good, the bad, and the ugly takes on Tuesday's primary elections. Before we get into Michigan's midterm Michigas, here's what we're following today, Wednesday, August 5th. A lot of progress has been made. And they called me and they said, please, let's talk. They want to talk. The funny thing is they never mentioned that. They always say, we're not talking. But they called. They wanted to talk. We've been talking. They want to make a deal. They do not want to be here. Likewise. President Donald Trump told reporters at Los Angeles International Airport Tuesday night that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come this week. I'll believe it when I see it. And even then, I might not believe it. The United States and Israel launched the war against Iran earlier this year, citing various goals I still do not understand. But recently, the conflict has devolved into a fight over the strait that was open before the war began. And now Iran wants control over it. And of course, the Trump administration isn't a fan of that. An agreement giving Iran authority over the strait would be seen as a major loss for the U.S. and a break with global norms. Alas, closure of the strait has driven up the cost of fuel and basic goods far beyond the region, roiling the global economy. So... Something's got to give. As Trump's war against Iran rages on, the U.S. is seeing more possible cyber attacks targeting water systems. According to sources who spoke to ABC News, hackers found a weakness in software commonly used by utility companies in at least 12 U.S. States. ABC News's Aaron Kuterski told Good Morning America Tuesday that some utilities had been forced to switch to manual operations. But so far, there's no evidence of widespread disruption to water supplies. The fear, though, is this is Iran showing how it could retaliate if President Trump further escalates the war. Iran remains the prime suspect behind these cyber attacks. Those sources say it's still not confirmed. Officials are assessing whether this could be the work of a different state actor, maybe mimicking Iran to try and influence what the U.S. does next. Of course, Donald Trump blamed the attacks in Minnesota on the state of Minnesota.

Because I'd argue Donald Trump hates the state of Minnesota more than the country we're purportedly at war with. Great news for American companies. The Trump administration is giving refunds. It has returned at least $166 billion to importers after the Supreme Court struck down many of its tariffs earlier this year. Less great news for Americans. You are not seeing any of that money. According to CNN, companies like Amazon and Apple got refunds because the tariff refund system only pays back the companies that paid the tariffs in the first place. So Apple got a $2.2 billion refund and Amazon got a $600 million refund. But the average American family is not likely to get anything back from those companies, even though they paid nearly $2,000 in tariff costs between February 2025 and January 2026. Why? Because despite promises from some companies to pass on those bonuses to consumers in the form of lower prices, the war in Iran and increased energy costs are likely eating up a lot of that money. In short, Trump is why your consumer goods are more expensive, and Trump is why they won't get any cheaper anytime soon. Will you tell him to drop out? No, I will tell Max what I tell everyone. These are serious allegations. I'm the father of two daughters who work in Capitol Hill. I mean, the allegations are serious. I think Max is taking them seriously. I think our colleagues are. But again, we have to allow this process to play out. It's just begun. Sure. House Speaker Mike Johnson spoke to Politico about embattled Ohio Republican Representative Max Miller and his domestic abuse allegations. Johnson told Politico that members of Congress are not merely disciplined for allegations, and emphasized, quote, there is all sorts of domestic events going on with 435 members of Congress all the time. It's not my business to get engaged in it. It is, actually, your business. And the House GOP Creep Fest continues. North Carolina Republican Representative Chuck Edwards announced that he will not seek re-election. It comes after the House Ethics Committee recommended that he be censured for gestures like gifting a staffer 30 different types of ice cream, offering to skip votes to help a staffer decorate her Christmas tree, and gifting a staffer a puzzle, which, when completed, showed an invitation to an Adam Sandler show. Happy he won't be returning. And that's the news. Let's talk about last night's primaries. It was a big night for Michigan Democrats as progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed beat U.S. Representative Haley Stevens in the race for a seat in the Senate this fall. His campaign centered on support for Medicare for All and opposition to funding Israel's conflicts, and now he'll face Republican Mike Rogers in November. It was the most expensive Senate Democratic primary in history and proved to be a much tighter win than the polling predicted. Recent polls had Abdul El-Sayed winning the race by nearly 20 points. Now, with the help of establishment Democrats, both in Michigan and nationally, he's focused on gathering support from voters who supported Stevens. But what did we actually learn from Michigan's primary? Was this a win for progressives? A shot at the establishment? Is Abdul El-Sayed too liberal to win in November? And what does it say about the midterms? Everyone has an opinion, but not all of them are good. To hear more about which takes we should be listening to, I spoke to John Favro. He's the co-host of Pod Save America.

John, welcome back to Water Day. Thanks for having me. Good to be here. Yesterday, five states went to the polls, and this morning we got results in one of the biggest primary races around the country. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed won a tight race for Michigan's open Senate seat for the primary, defeating Representative Haley Stevens. Now, on a day like this, there are a lot of takes. This is a big race. People have a lot of thoughts. They are sharing them. And I want you to rate some of them. Good take or bad take. Can I do like a medium take? Yeah, you can do like lukewarm take. Luke warm take. Kind of like a, you know, like it's a mid take. Okay, I like that. Okay. Starting off, El Sayyid's victory is a sign of a larger progressive wave taking over the Democratic Party. Lukewarm take. Okay. Why lukewarm? I think you can look at a lot of the results last night and you see certainly progressive challengers winning against more moderate Democrats. We saw this also in the Michigan 7th. We saw it in the Michigan 13th, I believe. But then, you know, more moderate candidates fended off progressive challengers in places like Virginia and Missouri and Washington State. So I think it's mixed, but I certainly think that the reason I say Luke Warm is, I mean, you have a very progressive Muslim candidate named Abdul El-Sayed who was outspent 11 to 1 and took on... the entire Democratic establishment in D.C. and in Michigan and one. So that is something in a state like Michigan, right? Which is we're not talking about New York City. We're not talking about a deep blue district. Yeah. So that is noteworthy. Yeah. And to that point, based on what we know as of right now, Abdul did quite well in rural Michigan. I'm going to have to throw up the mitten, which is how you do maps. This area, he did well. I'm interested in the splits there. I just said this to Dan on Ponce of America because it's like there's some, like she did really well in a lot of rural Michigan. And then there were pockets of rural Michigan where he did really well. I wonder, do you know the difference of like what? Yeah, he did really well like in the Upper Peninsula, which I'm like that's surprising and great. Robert Reich, former Secretary of Labor, who. talks a lot on the internet. He said on Twitter, quote, Abdul El-Sayed was outspent 9 to 1 by APEC and corporate super PACs in the most expensive Senate, Democratic primary of all time. Last night, he proved that organized people can beat organized money. Good take, bad take. What kind of take? I think that's a good take. I think that's a good take because certainly they beat organized money. I mean, $65 million in outside spending. APEC spent, I think, $32.5 million. That is the largest spend. of any outside group in any democratic primary this cycle the single largest one that is so so much money and the fact that he was able to overcome that is it's and it's a pretty big deal

For more on how Republicans are attempting to spin this race, hint, Islamophobia. Stick around. We'll get back to my conversation with John Favreau in a moment. In the meantime, make sure to subscribe. Leave a five-star review on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. What a Day is brought to you by Willie's Remedy. Finally, an alcohol alternative that actually works with an uplifting euphoric buzz you can really feel without any of the negative side effects. Willis is a premium THC-infused social tonic crafted by the legendary Willie Nelson. Inspired by Willie's way of living where peace flows freely and hangovers are a thing of the past. It is a low-calorie, low-sugar alcohol alternative that actually works, delivering a fast-acting euphoric social buzz without the regrets that come with alcohol. Willie's social tonics come in 5 milligram and 10 milligram doses, with a best-in-class flavor experience. So smooth and balanced, you barely realize you're drinking a THC product at all. You can enjoy the tonics as a shot, sipped over ice, or mixed into your favorite macktail. Willie's chips directly to your doorstep in 40-plus states and has sold out three times in the first six months with over 300,000 happy customers. So order now at drinkwillies.com and use code Wad for 20% off of your first order and free shipping on orders over $95 and live like a legend. What Today is brought to you by Americans United for separation of church and state. 250 years into the American experiment, it's time for all of us to decide, what kind of a country do we want to be? The founding fathers got a lot of things wrong, but one thing they got right was knowing that church and state need to be kept separate. Christian nationalists are trying to destroy that history and take this country down a scary path. They're misusing government power to impose their beliefs, rewrite our history, and decide who belongs in America. Americans United refuses to let that happen. Every single day, they are fighting back and holding the line against Christian nationalism with everything they've got. AU has sued the Trump administration seven times in the last year alone and 12 times since the second administration began. They've challenged government officials who use taxpayer resources to promote their religious beliefs. They're exposing abuses of power, defending public schools, and holding the government accountable when it violates the Constitution. But filing lawsuits, changing policy, and community advocacy don't happen on their own. They happen because people like you decide to be part of their fight. If you're looking for an empowered community to join, take a look at what's going on with AU. Visit AU.org slash crooked to learn more and join the fight today. Hi. I'm Alex Wagner. I do not need to tell you that being an American right now is a wild ride. But as a longtime journalist, I am not interested in the noise or the fearmongering. I'm interested in the stories at the heart of the headlines. That is why every week on my show, Runaway Country, I'm joined by folks in the middle of the crossfire. From disillusioned Maha moms to newly fired immigration judges to Epstein victims themselves, to understand what it means to live through this political chaos as an actual

human being. And now I'm excited to tell you that Runaway Country is available ad-free to Friends of the Pod subscribers. Friends of the Pod is the subscription that supports the work Crooked does as an independent media company and gives you a ton of great bonus and ad-free content. With the midterms approaching, you are going to need more content to keep you sane, and now you can find Runaway Country right there. Subscribe now at crooked.com backslash friends. Let's get back to my conversation with John Favro. Giving us a hint of where the Republicans are going to take this. Here is Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton on Twitter. Quote, Senate Democrats are excited for Abdul El-Sayed, who proudly campaigns with extremists who say America deserve 9-11. The Islamic Marxists truly are taking over the Democratic Party. We must never give them power. Quick clarification. He is referencing Hasan Piker because, of course he is. Good take, bad take. I'm going to say bad take on that one. Yeah. Tom Cotton with a bad take? What? Not an Islamist Marxist. No? No, that's not. No. I don't think he would identify as such. No, but I mean, we knew what the game was going to be, but this is how they are going to do this campaign. It's the entire thing that's just going to be saying the long version of Abdul's name, which he's already made the note of, like, if you say it, say it correctly. And being like, you know, he's some foreign influence. despite being from Michigan. And like that, that's going to be the entire campaign. That will be it. And I think. Whether it works or not is dependent on this. Abdul, when you meet him, when you see him on television, he is charismatic and engaging. And so I think for a lot of people in Michigan, seeing him up close will puncture the caricature of him as the Islamist, Marxist extremist. The question is for marginal voters, for low information voters who don't get to see Abdul up close and just see... ads like the NRC ran today, which is basically like Tommy Cotton's tweet in ad form. For people who just see that in the background, well, they're washing dishes, like, will that seep in for people who don't know Abdul or get to know Abdul? And so what he needs to do now is make sure he can meet and get his message in front of as many Michiganders as possible. Yeah. I was just talking to Tim Miller about this, that he's going to do, and I would guess that he's going to do what... Ramam Zohran Mamdani did, which is be omnipresent. Yes. Like there will not be, if you are at a football tailgate this fall, he will be there. Yeah. You won't even know where he's coming from. He will be, you know, you're at like a Grand Valley State game. Abdul's there. Yeah. You're at like Michigan Tech. He's there. You are anywhere in the state of Michigan, and somehow Abdul will be there. But you shared this, but I'll ask anyway. CNN's chief political analyst David Axelrod tweeted, it may sound odd, but the photo finish in Michigan may be a blessing for Abdul Al-Caid and Michigan Democrats. What's clear is that both factions of the party need each other to prevail in November and now have the opportunity to mobilize around issues that unite them, starting with at real Donald Trump. Good take, bad take. I think that's a good take. I think it's a good take.

I think that what we've seen this morning from Haley Stevens, from Mallory McMorrow, from Abdul El-Sayed, who all ran against each other, they've all been gracious to each other. And like the, all of the sort of establishment. institutional lefty figures in the party have already done a great job of like coming together. The question is like, can the voters in Michigan do that as well? I think that like seeing the example set by Democratic leaders is a great start. You see Pete Buttigieg basically being like, hey, we're all united around one thing that is defeating Republicans this fall. Yes. And like. If someone's going into the polls on election day and they're undecided, it still seems like the best message to be like, you send Mike Rogers there. Donald Trump's going to control the Senate. Do you want Donald Trump to keep control in the Senate? Speaking of Donald Trump. Donald Trump seems to be unaware that actually he is the target of all Democrats, all Democrats thoughts, and he seems to think that maybe talking about this will be helpful. He said, and I am quoting, great news for the Republican Party. El Sayyid, a communist loser who hates Jews and Israel, is a projected winner and is raced with the socialist. I'm sidebarring that. As usual, the polls were way off on this one. She was not expected to do nearly as well as she did. Now the Democrats, crazy policies will only get worse. One, I like that he's presuming already that Abdul will win. Good take, bad take. Uncomprehensible take. Couldn't understand. Really indecis. Like, I lost to him at the, is Haley Stevens the socialist? I was going to say, I don't think all the words fit together in a way that really you can understand. But going to someone who is more cogent, thinking about November, some people like Jesse Arm, the vice president of external affairs at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank based in New York, think that Abdul El-Sayed's win could. Make life easier for Mike Rogers. He goes on to say that Mike Rogers, you know, should start Democrats for Mike Rogers and start trying to reach across the aisle. Good take, bad take. Could make life easier. The could is an okay. Yeah, that's okay. It could. It could make Mike Rogers life easier. But we don't know yet. We got to see how Mike Rogers campaigns. Look, I think. I think that people in Michigan who know Mike Rogers, they might still think of him as a more moderate Republican or at least a more establishment Republican. And I think it's going to be up to Abdul and the Democratic Party to remind people that Mike Rogers is now a Trump toady who moved to Florida and made a lot of money and now does whatever Trump tells him to do.

I mean, he also told Semaphore that he doesn't know anything about anything, and nor does he care about the Iran War at all, which... No one's talking about the Iran War. Nope, no, no. He doesn't hear about it. What does he think about Trump's terrorists? No idea. That doesn't know. Don't care. Nope, don't care. I mean, I care. That was the actual quote. Yeah. Final take from Nate Silver talking about the polling. Abdul El-Sayed's apparent victory is a big win for the left, but a disaster for polling. Good take, bad take. I don't know if it's a disaster, but it's another, it's a black mark for polling. Michigan's a hard state to poll. That's always been true in the general, and now I think it's, now it's true in primaries. Primaries are also hard to poll, anyway, because they're a lower turnout. But whoof, could really use a gold standard pollster in Michigan because there's a lot of junk polls turned out. Yeah, yeah. I mean, Michigan, as you said, is weird to poll because it's full only. of the greatest people on the face of the earth, and complete weirdos. Jon Ossoff always, thank you for joining me. Thanks for having me. That was my conversation with John Favro, co-host of Pod Save America. Before we go, We don't need to tell you how important these upcoming midterms are, or what's at stake. You already know, which is why you also know that we'll need everyone to pitch in and organize in their communities over these coming months. Vote Save America just debuted a new collection of teas featuring nine of the most crucial battleground states on the 2026 map. Get yours and rep your state today at store.crooked.com. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review. Never forget that our president is 80 years old until your friends to listen. And if you're into reading, I'm not just about Trump giving Fox News host Trace Gallagher the highest of boomer compliments. You have such a good show. I watch you all the time. Thank you, sir. Sometimes they tape it and watch it. It's okay. I don't know what they call it today. They used to call it TiVo. Maybe they still do. Yeah. But I love TiVo or it's equivalent. DVR. Like me, what a day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at cricket.com slash subscribe. I'm Jane Koston. And two things. There's a real person named Trace Gallagher, and he's not a private eye. And also, again, Donald Trump is 80 years old. And boy, can you tell. What a day is a production of Crooked Media. Our show is produced by Caitlin Plummer, Emily Ford, Erica Morrison, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Haley Jay Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Joseph Dutra, Johanna Case, and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jim Jordan Cantor. We had helped today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

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