08 05 26 *INTERVIEW* Washington Post columnist Henry Olsen joins us to recap yesterday’s primary elections, especially what happened in Michigan

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senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. He has a fantastic podcast called Beyond the Polls. And I highly commend his newsletter. It's called Margin of Victory. And it's published at the Washington Post website, but you do not need a Washington Post subscription to read it. So you can go look up margin of victory. Henry, going into yesterday's election, I was looking at Cal She. And Haley Stevens' odds of winning on Kalshi were 2%. Two. And I guess if polls were right at Silliat up by 14, then 2% would be right. But what the heck is going on? Well, what the heck is going on is that obviously pollsters had a shared sampling bias. What we're going to have is a turnout that blows through any record for a statewide non-presidential turnout. We'll come close to and perhaps exceed the amount of votes cast in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. And if I were a pollster, I wouldn't bet on a record turnout, but that's what we've gotten. That could very well be why they were so off. Okay, a quick follow-up on that. Actually, two quick follow-ups. One, at the moment, it looks like Abdul El-Sayed is up by 20,000 votes. This other, I guess, what counts for a moderate these days in the Republican, in the Democratic Party, McMorrow, who dropped out of the race, but not in time to not have her name on the ballot, has 60,000 votes. Now, I would think that... that that person, if her name were not on the ballot, way more of her people, if they had voted or all, would have gone to Stevens than to El Sayed. Do you think that could be a difference maker in the race? And the other thing I want to ask you about is, is if you see the massive participation in this race, way more Democrats than, way more people cast Democratic primary votes than Republican primary votes. Do you think Republicans... played a lot in the Democratic Senate primary. Yeah, on first question, you know, given the votes that are out, Stevens should cut into that lead, but she should not overtake it. So then you have to say, you know, do I think that maybe 60% of the McMorrow voters would have voted for Stevens and would that have made the difference in the race? Yeah, I think it could very well have. You know, certainly I've studied this in Australia where they have a preference system. Even ideologically aligned people split their vote in weird ways. So you'd think, well, Mallory McMorrow is more of a centrist or her people who prefer Stevens. Not by the margin, you might think, but it might get small enough that she is the difference maker. On the Republicans playing in the Democratic side, you know, I had anecdote, you know, which is say a friend of mine did it, but I would have to take a look at turnout, which is to say...

Do you see higher than expected turnout in the Democratic primary in Republican-heavy areas? And I frankly haven't had the chance to take a look at that yet. I'm sure some of it happened. I'm sure it helps Stevens. Is it enough to explain a 13-point average error in the polls? Not a chance. I want to focus on Michigan's gubernatorial race real quick. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Republican Representative John James. James was backed by President Trump. Heading into November, how do you see that playing the role? Because Michigan's in a unique situation where a lot of Democrats aren't a fan of Guy Benson because of her support of data centers. And then some people aren't a fan of James with his backing of President Trump. Yeah, I mean, I would expect, given how data centers have become such a flashpoint across the country that candidates with open opposition to them move up in the polls very, very quickly, I would expect Jocelyn Benson to triangulate her position rather quickly. But the bottom line in this race, as in all races, is that if we were... forecasting right now, there's a very heavy wind at the Democratic sales. And Michigan is a state that's marginal, but it leans Democratic by a point or two. Add to that a Democratic wind, I would say that James has to be counted as a significant underdog going into the race, regardless of the merits of the two individuals. Let me ask you about two other things going on in Michigan. And you warned about this in a previous conversation in Michigan 7th Congressional District where there were two moderates and they seemed to really not like each other very much. And neither one of them was going to back down. And so they split the vote and a leftist one with like 43% or 41% some number like that. Do you think that, and that's a seat that I think is one of the few kind of swing seats in America. Do you think a Republican may win that because the leftist is the one who got through? Yes, I do. This is a seat. It's Michigan 7. It's Representative Tom Amy Coney Barrett's seat. It is based on the very Democratic city of Lansing, but it is surrounded by Republican-leaning territory, so it is ultra-marginal. But for William Lawrence, the progressives nomination, you would have to say this is the sort of seat that a Democrat should pick up in a Democratic year. We know from other races that people on the extremes, the MAGA right, the progressive left, tend to run behind their partisan baseline by four to eight points. And that's enough that you could easily see Lawrence, who is unabashedly left wing. It's not going to be hard to peg him for what he is, running that far behind. And it could very well mean that Amy Coney Barrett wins a seat. That is the worry of democratic establishment. Somebody called it on X, the Democratic.

party's biggest own goal. Well, you know, 44% of the voters, even in a three-way race, back William Lawrence, one of the things people have to come to grips with is that the party establishment is so far out of touch with the party base that they might as well be in the outer sources of the solar system. They'll be doing well if they get as close to the earth of the Democratic Party base as Jupiter by the time of November. Okay, Henry, I want to go off with that last remark real quick, because that was kind of what I was going to ask, a very, very, very broad question. Just how do candidates speak to their base right now? Do you try to adapt it any way? When you have macro Republicans, you have moderate Republicans, you have Democrats, you have moderate, you have Democratic socialists. I mean, there's just so many different ranges now that do you try to cater or do you go off the fringe where some people might say, well, I might vote the other party or I might not vote at all? Well, you know, from the voter perspective, I think what a lot of people, increasingly people are getting in the middle are getting frustrated. But we've seen in voter registration data, which is usually a good indicator of voter trends, you know, which is say that if a party is doing well in new registrations and the time coming up to an election, they've got the wind at their sales. The trend. in voter registration is we don't want either of these bozos independents are up massively pretty much everywhere and i think what you're going to have is a lot of people who will come into the voting booth wishing they had a different choice But that doesn't mean that the candidates are able to appeal to that effectively because what they have to do is energize their base to come out. And the base is a larger share of the electorate than the middle. So it's kind of like with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. 18% of Americans didn't like either of them, but 82% of Americans like one or the other of them. So you had the people. campaigning to each of their bases and driving up the negatives in the middle, but then those people eventually had to decide which of these two unpalatable choices do we want. And I think that's where we're going to come. If you're really a low engagement, moderate, independent, you may not vote this time in the midterm election, but most people will show up and vote and they'll make a lesser of two evils choice, which is why in the case like Michigan 7, William Lawrence, who was clearly the more extreme candidate as somebody who was at a disadvantage with this type of voter. Wow, fascinating. Fascinating answer. All right, one more quick thing. Saturday, August 22nd in Tampa. Witness an MMA legend's final fight. Chris Cyborg, one of the greatest in history. She's an absolute pioneer in the sport. Defense her PFL world title, one last time. Unforgettable end to an unforgettable career. Saturday, August 22nd live from Benchmark International Arena.

For tickets, visit pfl. info slash Tampa. Bubba Wallace here from 2311 racing. You know what's slower than a pace car? Waiting at the car wash. That's when I fire up Chumba Casino. It turns those slow minutes into fast fun. With new games every week, you'll never get bored. Next time you're stuck in the slow lane, speed up with Chumba. Play now at chumbacasino.com. Let's Chumba. Sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW Group Ford, where prohibited by law, 21 plus, terms and conditions apply. These days, it's getting harder and harder to trust what you're seeing. Who made it? Is it real? But with iHeart, everything you hear is guaranteed human. That's why 78% of listeners trust their favorite radio hosts product recommendations. And if you own or manage a business here or need to drive sales, that trust goes a long way in creating your future customers. Make iHeart media a part of your 2026 plan today. Call 844-844-I-Hart. Again, that's 844-844-I-Hart. Trade screen time for race time at Virginia International Raceway. August 21st through 23rd, IMSA's Michelin GT Challenge brings some of the coolest cars to VIR for an unforgettable family weekend. Explore, meet drivers, see race cars up close, and experience the thrill of racing from every corner of the track. It's more than a race. It's a memory waiting to be made. Kids 12 and under get in free. Get your tickets at VIRFam.com. That's VIRFAM.com. Henry and I email from time to time about like betting odds on politics. And it's really fun to watch this stuff. And so one of the things that I noticed this morning, Henry, is that the betting odds on Ken Paxton winning in Texas have moved up just a little, like by two points or so in the past day from like 52 or 53 to 54 or 55. And so I have two questions for you. Do you think that might be because people are saying, well, if the poll overestimated the leftist by so much in Michigan, then maybe it's overestimating the leftist in Texas where James Talarico was ahead? And then a more important question, could this be the year where after years of daydreaming about winning a Senate seat in Texas, Democrats could really get it done because Ken Paxton is just such a horrendous candidate? Well, yeah, I think on your first question, that's absolutely what's going on. The sort of person who bets, I mean predict. It's a prediction market. It's not a gambling market. The person who puts their money where their mouth is on these things is an intense political information consumer. And they are the sort of sophisticated investor who would note that and make a small change in their odds on the basis of that. Do I think James Talarico can win? Yes, I think James Talarico can win. Do I think James Talarico will win?

It's Texas. I looked at one poll's cross tab that had him up by two points. Well, the reason he's up by two points, assuming the sample is correct is because he's got 97% of self-described Democrats, whereas Ken Paxton has only 85% of self-described Republicans. I've been around politics long enough to know. The closer you get election, the more those partisans just throw up their hands and say, gosh, I wish I didn't have to make this choice, but I will. I predicted that that was what was going to happen in 2016 with Donald Trump. That's why I had an incredibly accurate prediction on election night. It's going to happen with Ken Paxton. And I think what that means is he's likely to win by a point than lose by a point. You know, that's within such the margin of error that there's a 0% chance I would go on Calci or Polly Market and bet, I mean, predict the outcome. Henry's fantastic podcast, I encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. It's called Beyond the Polls, and it's free and it's fantastic. And his newsletter is called Margin of Victory. Just look up Henry Olson, O L-S-E-N, margin of victory. You will see it hosted. the Washington Post, but you do not need a subscription to read it. Thanks as always. Go get some rest, Henry. That was a much later night than it needed to be. Rest. I've got a full, I've got a podcast to do, and I've got my newsletter to add it. I'm raring to go. All right. Talk to you soon, Henry. Appreciate it. All right. He is always so good. Boy, I loved his answer to your question, Gina. That was an incredible, incredible insight into the way voters work.

Saturday, August 22nd in Tampa. Witness an MMA legend's final fight. Chris Cyborg, one of the greatest in history. She's an absolute pioneer in the sport. Defense her PFL world title, one last time. Unforgettable end to an unforgettable career. And still. Saturday, August 22nd live from Benchmark International Arena. For tickets, visit pfl. info slash Tampa. Tyler Reddick here from 2311 racing. Game nights fun until someone spends five minutes lining up one shot. Chalk, breathe, rechalk, still aiming. While they figure it out, I fire up Champa Casino. I can spin anywhere, anytime, and there's always a new social casino game every week. Spins happen way faster than that shot. Play now at chumba casino.com. Let's Chumba. Sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW Group, voidware prohibited by law, 21 plus, terms and conditions apply. If you're part of a political campaign, you know media plans are under serious pressure right now. TV alone is not reaching everyone. Digital is crowded, and every dollar has to work harder. That's why political advertisers are adding iHeart. With broadcast radio, podcasts, and streaming, iHeart helps get your message in front of voters with trusted voices, efficient frequency, and scale across local markets. If you need to reach more voters before election day, let's talk. Partner with iHeart today. Call 1-844-844-I-Hart. Entertain clients, reward employees, or enjoy a first-class race weekend with VIR's premium MSA hospitality experiences. August 21st through 23rd, enjoy exclusive viewing areas, premium amenities, food and beverage options, and access that puts you close to the action. Whether for business or pleasure, elevate your weekend at Virginia International Raceway. Explore and upgrade your tickets at VIRVIP.net.