Hour 1 - Debbie Downer vs. Debbie Realistic

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Welcome in Friday edition, Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. We appreciate all of you who are hanging out with us. Let's have some fun and get you guys informed on a variety of different stories as we head into what should be a great weekend. Masters action underway for those of you who are golfers. It is an official sign for many parts of the country that spring has sprung. We will give you the absolute latest on the U.S. Iran situation. Artemis 2 scheduled for a splashdown landing off the coast of San Diego. Our buddy Ryan Gurdeski going to join us at one to talk about a bunch of different topics, including this data coming out that nobody's having babies anymore, which is frankly kind of alarming. Much of Western civilization, the population is collapsing. Nobody really, to a large extent, is talking about it. The existential threat to America and the world, it likely is turning out, is not going to be climate change or global warming. It's going to be a bunch of people just deciding not to have babies and the population collapsing as a result. We will talk about all that and more, but we begin with the biggest news. which is high stakes negotiations that are poised to take place in Pakistan over the weekend. And Vice President JD Vance is leading that charge. And he took off earlier today. I think it was actually maybe even last night for the Iran negotiations in Pakistan. And this is what he said right before he got on the plane to begin that trip cut four. We're looking forward to the negotiation. I think it's going to be positive. We'll foresee, as the President of the United States said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we're certainly willing to extend the open hand. If they're going to try to play us, then they're going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive. So we're trying to have a positive negotiation. The president has gave us some pretty clear guidelines, and we're going to see. All right, so update on the markets, the Dow down a small amount, S&P 500 when I last checked up a small amount, not a lot of movement. Oil and gas has stabilized, dropped substantially during the course of this week and has since kind of danced around that $100 mark. Buck, are you optimistic at all for these negotiations that are going to take place in Pakistan? What do you expect, if anything, let's predict. If we were coming back on Monday, what does our conversation look like with these negotiations in theory beginning on Saturday? I think I know your answer already, but I'm just going to allow you to Debbie Downer us all as we begin the program here on a beautiful spring Friday. I cannot tell a lie. As you all know, there's not going to be a deal. There's going to be. a deal to continue figuring out what the deal looks like. And this is Iranian Bob and Weave. This is float like a butterfly, sting like a B, Middle East style. This is exactly what they have been doing all along.

I, and I'm going to say this, I am, I guess obviously pessimistic about the chance of us being negotiated to a conclusion, but I am hopeful. And this is one of these ones where I would love it. I will be smiling ear to ear on this show and taking the proverbial paddle and saying, thank you, sir, may I have another, if I'm wrong on this one. Some of you will catch the reference to Animal House. It is absolutely the case that the Iranians, I should say. It in my view is absolutely the case that the Iranians. view this as now a delay game and they're using the price of oil and our political considerations as their leverage. Clay, the Strait of Hormuz is not open. That was the big thing here. It's a little open. It's a little open. It's not open. I think they're saying 10% of the expected traffic through Hormuz is going through. And guess who is getting waved on through Russia, China, friendlies to Iran. And they may be paying crypto. They may be paying tolls we don't even know about, just to be clear about this. I don't think that's happening. I think Russia and China would be like, you really don't want to mess with us too. But who knows, right? Who knows? So I am hopeful that this is. JD Vance and Jared Kushner's shining moment. Now, what may happen is the deadline will pass in two weeks. We start bombing them again for a few days. We have press conferences from the Pentagon saying, look at how much we can kick their ass. And then we go, okay, another ceasefire. You guys want to talk? And the Iranians like, oh. fine fine we're willing to talk and so on and so forth and again like i said i am hopeful i am wrong on this one but i do not see clay if the straight is not open right now what exactly have we gotten in the ceasefire and the straight is not open right now and no one seems to want to talk about that i will think This is all very... That was Debbie Downer to the max, wasn't it? I was trying to be happy on a Friday. I'm sorry. Look, I think the number one thing is the Strait of Hormuz being officially open and Iran eliminating its desire potentially to blow up freighters filled with oil. Here's something I don't hear anybody talking about. And this is not Debbie Downer. This is Debbie Realistic. There's a lot of big time Trump donors that are thrilled with what the price of oil and gas is right now. So think about this. If you are, and there are a bunch of Texans listening to us right now, if you are in Texas, you are thrilled with what the price of oil and gas is right now. $50 a barrel, it's hard to make money. $60 a barrel, there's tiny little profit margin. $100 barrel of gas?

There are people that are going to be having champagne toasts going on while they kick back and watch the Masters all over Texas this weekend as long as these prices remain higher. The reason why I bring it up is there is a little bit of a disconnect. between what the average consumer thinks the price of oil and gas should be and what oil and gas producers think the price of oil and gas can be. And the calculus on this is very different than it was in the 1990s when we had to import all of our oil and gas into this country in order to be able to take care of everything. Now we're net exporters. And so it's a different kind. I'm just saying, hold on, hold on. Do you think Trump doesn't want the straight, oh, you're saying there are a lot of Trump donors who want the gas price high, so they like this congestion? Are you saying Trump doesn't want the straight open? I'm a little confused now. Well, I'm saying I'm not sure that the straight being 100% open is a universal goal of every part of the Trump goal. Sure, but what's Trump's goal? Trump's goal, I think, is to get oil and gas down to... There's a bit of dispute over this for a while. He thinks the ideal price is $50 a barrel. The Texas guys. Maybe some of you can call in. I was going to say, can we get somebody to put your Stetson down for a second here? Pick up your phone, Texans, who work in oil and gas and let us know what's going on. Yeah, actually, I would love that. You don't have to give us your official designation, but if you are listening to us right now and you are involved in American oil and gas, here's another point, Buck. You don't have to call in and say, my name is John Smith. I'm a senior VP at Exxon. I work in this office. You can just call and be like, this is John. I know what I'm talking about. And I just bought a Picasso because in the last. month, I made an extra $100 million because the barrel of gas doubled. But I do think this, here's another stat book that I was reading. I've been doing a bunch of research on oil and gas because I'm fascinated by this entire industry. You know that California? which is trying to say, hey, we're all into clean oil and gas and we're going to be the green new. You know that 29% of California's gas is imported according to the Wall Street Journal and comes through the Strait of Hormuz infinitely more than any other state in the United States. Did you know this? I had no idea. It's a tiny percentage of oil and gas that ultimately ends up in the United States that transits through the Strait of Hormuz. California, I believe, I'm going to pull up that stat and we'll share that article. I was reading California imports about 29% of its overall oil and gas from the Strait of Hormuz. So right now, if you are listening to us in California,

Your entire basis for the Green New Deal and everything else, in addition to the fact that you have to pay way more to fill up your cars and your trucks, which is infuriating, I would imagine. But Buck, they are actually bringing in. The California dollars are actually going to these Middle Eastern countries as opposed to staying here at home. Because California has tons of oil and gas that they're not deciding to come through. You're talking to me about the oil markets and everything, and it's very interesting. And, you know, you really also could run a stock market. Like, you're very into this stuff. Well, you could be sitting there with Kramer. I honestly think you're probably better than Kramer. No offense. Well, actually, no offense to Kramer. You could be doing this stuff. If I'm just right about a little bit, I could probably do better. But on this issue of where we are with ending the Iran war, not how people in Texas may feel about it if they happen to have a lot of shares of Exxon or Texaco or whatever. I know there's been all these mergers. I can't remember. Does Trump feel good about where things are right now? Do you think that the administration feels like this is where things are supposed to be? I checked this morning, 10%. There are thousands of ships that are still bottled up. 10% of the straight traffic is happening and Iran is claiming now the right for national security purposes to inspect and deter any ships coming into the strait that it wants. No, he wants the straight to be clear and open. And I do think that the overall precedent being set of... open bodies of water, which is a global trade perspective position, should not be able to enact tolls, right? That's different than the Panama Canal or something that is a man-made shipping creation where you certainly are extracting tolls. That's the basis for it, just like a toll road versus an interstate that's paid for. The idea is that this has to be going through. What I am saying is I do think the politics of this. is actually a bit more complicated and maybe the pressure. is different versus an individual filling up their oil and gas and the Texas oilmen out there. We got loaded lines from the Texas oilmen who are saying this is actually incredibly good. And it's a different calculus when much of the money is still coming into this country when we benefit in some ways from a corporate perspective on higher oil and gas prices. And they want to drill more when prices go up.

This is just big picture. It's hard to get more oil and gas drilling done when there's $50 a barrel because it's hard to make money. At $100 a barrel, they make way more money. I would bet that the capacity that could be dialed up in the United States is substantial at those dollar figures. I just don't hear anybody talking about the fact that the calculus has changed when it comes to... America as a net exporting country of this is a tremendous success story compared to when we had to bring everything else in, a lot of those dollars on oil and gas now stay in America and actually can provide fuel, no pun intended, in a positive direction for the economy. Now, the downside is obviously individual consumers have to pay more, but if you look at it on an inflation adjusted basis, Oil and gas is one of the greatest buys that exists anywhere in the world. We pay far less now on an inflation-adjusted basis. You know, oil and gas, I believe, is cheaper than bottled water. Again, I find all this, and I mean this, I'm not, I would never be still silliest when you're doing your financial. I find all this deeply interesting. We stop bombing them so they would open the strait, and the strait's not open. This is the fundamental problem. I agree in general. What I'm saying is I'm not sure that the political pressure is as intense on this issue as maybe the general population. So then the straight doesn't need to be open. Well, I think it needs to be open eventually, but if it ends up eventually opening in a month, I think that there's a lot of oil and gas people in Texas that would say, hey, that's fine. So the pressure valve isn't as tight as one. That's my argument. I got you. Okay. Interesting. And I may be wrong, but I want to hear from the Texas guys and gals. And what are the chances one of them is actually named Tex, by the way? Extra points if you call it and you're like, I've been an oil man for 40 years. My name's Tex. I think the oil and gas guys are going to say, Clay, you're the only person who's actually made this argument in anywhere in media because it is a different calculus than it was in the 90s. And I think not surprised. A lot of media have not caught up with what oil and gas independence and us being a net exporter actually means when oil and gas prices go up, it used to be we got entirely gouged and we were the victims. Now we are... actually having a great deal of success. China arguably becomes a victim, the Europe becomes a victim, the countries that are not energy independent. This is actually what Trump has been arguing for so long we had to create it. So just in general, and oil and gas guys, y'all can tell me if I'm totally wrong on this or if you're saying, Hallelujah. Somebody's trying, finally pointing out that things are a bit different than they have been in the past. When Rapid Radio's first introduced modern-day walkie-talkies, the kind that connect to anyone anywhere in the U.S., guess what? Buck and I, we were early adopters. Our families were early adopters, and we were lucky because when catastrophe hit, we've been able to stay in touch with our families nationwide.

Why can't we just, you know, root for our military? Why can't we just say, I don't have to agree everything the president has done are the kind of things that he says. But, you know, we're going to, we should be on the side of America. And we should be on the size of civilization and the free world. And I'm on that side. And I don't know why I'm the only Democrat that says those kinds of thing at this point. And I think more Democrats should listen to me and say it'd be on the right side of history and holding Iran accountable. And if you have to pick a side, pick our side, pick civilization, pick Israel. That's really the paradigm as we see it and have since October 7th and before then, but certainly since then. If you're picking a side on this one, pick the side of civilization. And Israel is on the side of civilization. That does not mean it's perfect. America is not perfect. And we will criticize both when necessary. But if it's between that and the Mullahs, that in Hamas, that in Hezbollah, Clay, I think a lot of the people, including on the right, who have been getting really weird on this issue, they just have no idea how vicious and sadistic and violent some of these Islamofascists really are. Yeah, look, I think what John Fetterman is saying, and he's a voice of sanity here, is you can't argue that Iran is a existential threat for decades as Democrats have, and they're all on the record saying it, and then be upset when Trump does something to try and take away that existential threat. By the way, loaded lines on oil guys. So put on your big hats and get ready for some oil and gas analysis. When we come back, I'll take some of these calls. We better hear some heavy Texas accents. That's all I'm saying. All right. We invest our money in retirement accounts and mutual funds, ETF stocks, a lot of things. But the real appreciation this past year has come from none of those, but from purchasing gold as part of your IRA and 401K. The past year, the last 12 months, the price of gold grew by over 65% in that one year alone. And if you want to look at the long term, I think the picture for gold is even more amazing. 700% increasing gold in its value over the last 20 years. Gold grows in value when money printing, inflation, and instability are problems. And they certainly are. Birch Gold Group, by the way, wants you to know about gold. And so they've just announced their learn and earn precious metals event. Great opportunity to learn more about macroeconomics and gold and how it plays in. This free online event rewards you for learning the basics about gold. Text my name Buck to 989898 to join Birch Gold Learn and Earned Precious Metals event by April 30th. Text Buck to 98989898 today. All right, welcome back in. You never know what you're going to get. Oil, big oil has loaded up the lines. The state, I believe, that we have the biggest listenership in Buck is Texas. And we love all of our Texans. And obviously, the oil and gas industry is not just confided to Texas. But I've gotten to know a lot of oil and gas guys. And initially, Buck, where this came from was actually college football because Texas A&M is the top producing oil and gas.

school anywhere in the country, basically. And I remember when they redid Kyle Field back in the day, Buck, all the big Texas oil guys who were donating, they said there's three things they got this stadium redone. And let me tell you, if you want to see the fanciest suites that exist anywhere in a football stadium in America, the nicest sweets I've ever seen is in Texas A&M. They redid that football field. Texas guys all said the oil guys who were donating the big money, hundreds of millions of dollars to get this thing done. They said there's three things that happened. Johnny Mansell, the SEC, and $70 barrel of oil. This was back in like 2010, 2011. And boy, they got that thing built in a hurry. And it is a temple. It's incredible. Okay. So the point I was making off the top is that there may not be as much political pressure. on the straight of Hormuz over the price of oil and gas because America, big companies now benefit immensely since we are in exporting, net exporting country now, because of the massive amounts of oil and gas we produced. And so when oil and gas is $95, $97 a barrel like it is right now, there's a lot of people in this country that are very happy with that, which is different than in the 90s when we were having to bring in all the oil and gas. And I'm curious from people out there. We got loaded lines. Gene is up in North Dakota. You say you produce a lot of oil up in North Dakota. What is the reaction when a $100 barrel of oil is happening so far as you see it? Well, we pump about 1.2 million barrels a day of oil out of the ground up here. And if you were smart enough to hang on to your mineral rights and didn't sell them to Harold Ham. Then you are making, let's say they pump 2,000 barrels a day. off your land, that 2,000 times 100 is a pretty good payday for some old guy sitting on a farm up here in North Dakota. What do you need to, sorry to cut you off, but what is your cost? Like what does oil and gas need to be in North Dakota when you're in a general sense? Because I know it can vary depending on how depth and there's lots of complicating factors. But in general, what do you need to have oil and gas be to make a decent profit? I've always heard that somewhere between 70, probably $67 and $75 a barrel. Now, a lot of companies are drillers and a lot of companies are refiners. They only refine. They don't go looking for oil. Some do both. So it really depends on, you know, where you're at. If you're just a refiner, you want $50 a barrel oil. If you're an explorer, you want $100 a barrel oil. So, you know, but up here a person needs, if you take the cost of oil divided by $33.69, that should give you what the price of gasoline should be. And if you do that right now at $100, you'll come up with about.

three just just short of three dollars and then you add on and we're paying right now we're paying three dollars and forty nine cents a gallon for for gasoline yeah Well, thank you for the call. We got a lot of people who want to weigh in. This is a little bit of an education for many of us because I'm fascinated by the business here. Let's see. Eric, you're in Midland, Texas. Midland is a huge oil producing area. What's the reaction right now to the price of oil and gas and what do you think in an ideal world it should be? I'm just kind of curious from a business perspective. Hey, guys. Great to be with y'all. Yeah, I think it should be between $65 and $70 a barrel. That allows us to make plenty of money. We are definitely oil country here in Midland and Odessa. And, you know, we all get to stay busy. Everybody's making good money. And the rest of the country doesn't have to suffer with the high gas prices. And even ourselves. I filled my truck up earlier today. I drive a diesel truck. $175 to fill my truck up. So at Stings on all ends, we don't want to see $100, $130 barrel oil like we saw, you know, back in Obama days. It just gets crazy. So if you could wave a magic wand, oil and gas companies make money, but it doesn't become a tax on the larger economics because there's all oil and gases embedded in the cost of everything. Your number would be $70-ish a barrel would be a good dollar figure. That's correct. Thank you for the call. These are interesting call. Robert in Corpus Christi. Robert, are you an oil and gas? What's your background? Well, I'm an attorney. I talk to you guys, but I'm sitting here right now watching my pump jack producing oil, you know, about a couple hundred barrels a day.

It's good to see. I hate it for the country that we're taking this hickie. But Clay, you hit it on the head. You're finally playing chess when everybody in the press is playing checkers. That straight of Hormuz is open. They don't have a Navy to patrol it. It's supposedly at the bottom of the Persian Gulf. So the decisions are being made to not send tankers through, not because they're really that scared. There's really no blockade or anything that would stop them from just sailing right through. What's stopping them is keeping the price of oil high, and you hit the nail on the head with that one. Thank you for the call. I think there's some fear that is certainly taking place here. But my argument would be the longer it takes for the oil and gas. Would you want to be an oil, like a U.S. or a, you know, a Western oil rig captain on one of these, one of these ships going through the straight? Just to be clear, I would not take that job right now. I would not take that job for a lot of money. But I wouldn't take that job for like Sean Hannity money. Like I wouldn't take that job for Big Boy money. No way. You know what? I wouldn't mind being the job of right now, though. Having a few thousand acres on the Permian Basin right now when it's $100, $100 a barrel. Lindy and Houston is talking about that. Lindy, you're down in, I would say Houston is probably Houston and Dallas, the two biggest oil markets in the entire United States for sure in terms of the money rolling in. What are you hearing around Houston about $100 barrel of oil? Well, good morning. I guess I worked in the oil patch for about 42 years, mainly in the international side. And the driver on what the oil companies are looking for is the delta between what they sell the oil for and how much they have to pay for it to get it out of the ground. Oh, yeah. You know, when we were $50 oil, the oil companies probably had to spend $35 or $40 a barrel to drill the wells and get them fracked and get that oil produced. So they didn't make a heck of a lot of money. So when we take it up to $100 a barrel. You know, on the stuff that they've already drilled, they're making good money on it. They don't have a real problem with what's going on. Yeah. But now, the negative is if oil prices stay high... Their costs are going to go up. All the service companies, fracking, drilling, all water haulage, all the things that go with the cost of production. That's going to go up if it stays up high. So do you agree that the ideal price is about $70 for your average oil and gas producer? Yes.

Okay, second question. You've been doing this 42 years. How much different is it now than the first Persian Gulf, you know, the Gulf War, when we weren't energy independent, how much more of a, you know, the economics of oil and gas pricing increases, changes based on the amount we're producing, right? This is one of the big impacts of the Trump administration 1.0. and just the growth in general in what we're able to produce. You've got to have seen a tremendous difference in the impact over your 42-year career. Yes, I have. But you had the same phenomenon back in the early 90s with the invasion of Kuwait. I mean, the price of oil went up. And unless you were messing around in that part of the world and you were in the oil business in West Texas, you were probably okay with that price run up. And, you know, the same thing in the invasion of Iraq. I mean, the prussia oil goes up. And if you're not in business there, it doesn't do a whole lot when you get a big spike in the short run that just raises your revenue. It doesn't raise your cost basis. So this is all very, I mean, again, Clay, this is all very truly interesting about the oil and gas industry. But. well how many people in this country are benefiting from the high prices versus how many voters do not like the high prices and i think that that is we're talking about the politics of this as well as the economics of this and and also that was a very important point that was made by one of the callers is amazing too we always say this and we mean this this isn't we're not like like sucking up or anything the amount of knowledge that we can draw upon from all of you all across the country there's millions of you who are listening And when you call in, and we have obviously a fantastic call screener to make sure we're putting people on the air who really know what they're going to say and know their stuff, it's incredible. So you are, you're like our original AI. And we can put out a question and get an AI style answer here on the old school phone lines in terms of the level of expertise. I think that's really interesting. But Clay, there's the producers, right, the refiners, the people searching for it, the people refining it, the people transporting it, the people that are. and disrupt, I mean, all of the big oil CEOs are all saying, we want business as usual in the street. We do not want any of this to happen. Now, maybe they feel like they have to say that. That's possible. You really think so? Because I think that they just want, look, they're in a business where they get to make money all the time. The world needs oil. They're providing what we need, right? It's like, we got an addiction and the only answer is more oil. I feel like, They would just like things to even out here and get back to normal as soon as possible. I think the dollar figure is interesting that $70 they think is good. $50 is where Trump wanted it. They wanted it at 70. There's a delta there obviously of difference. I think they're very, very aware that. people blame them every time prices go up. This is why I always feel bad for the average gas station owner, as we've talked about, because I don't think a lot of people even really understand that. They are not gouging you. The only way they make money is when you go inside, this is the average gas station. They make a couple of pennies a gallon on oil and gas. They need you to go buy a snap. They still make snapple. They need you to go buy a snapple. Remember Snapple back in the day? I don't even know if it still exists. Rush was a big Snapple guy.

Oh, Snapple was great. Right, guys? Wasn't Rush really into Snapple or am I imagining that? Oh, yeah. He was a big fan of Snapple. That that company really exists very much anymore, but they need you to go into the convenience store and grab a slim gym or some potato chips. And that's the way they make money. The profit margin, by and large, comes from purchases in convenience store. Again, taking the 30,000 foot view here, though, Clay, are the all in their totality? Does Trump, does the administration, do the oil companies, do they want the straight to have 100% of the traffic? Or do they actually, you really think, I mean, this is getting a little quasi-conspiratorial. You think Trump and his oil barons want it closed? I think that they, a lot of them are not furious. I don't know that there are. I think the political pressure is. not all raining down on it should be open. I think for the global economy, we need it open. I'm just saying that the energy independence of the United States has changed some of the calculus associated with... when the price of oil and gas goes up, we used to be net spenders as a country I'm talking about. Now we're net beneficiaries. And so why was Trump threatening to destroy like hospitals and orphanages a few days ago in Iran if they don't open the strait. What was that all about? I think the long range, we can't have a situation where Iran controls the strait of Hormuz for years and years into the future. We cannot have that. But I think the short-term political calculus, like if you told me this will be resolved in three months. I don't think the idea that it is a tremendous must-fix situation imminently, I think there's actually a little bit more negotiating leverage than because of the current energy independence than there would have been in 1990 or 1991. We get into the summer and there's a big nasty mean spike in oil prices. I'm going to remind you of all this way. And look, there is a disconnect. To your point, I think it's an important one between sometimes what oil and gas companies want and what the average consumer wants. And by the way, I'm the average consumer. I filled up my car this morning. It cost me a lot more. I got an SUV. I got to fit all the kids in the back of it. It costs me a lot. It's like oil prices, shmoyle prices. I drive a Tesla. I also have a Tesla. By the way. I plug it into the wall like a cell phone. It costs me absolutely nothing on electricity by and large. Car drives itself. I was on a call. And one of our guys said, are you, is that the car driving itself in the background? I'm like, yeah, I just get in the car now. Just have a bunch of calls. Don't have to worry about anything. So I got a Tesla and an SUV. I'm covering both ends of the spectrum. Look, I want to tell you about cozy earth. It is an incredible, awesome, fantastic.

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