Iran War Escalates: Talks Fail, Troops Move, Recession Fears

The Ryan Gorman Show podcast, presented by Farah and Farah, accident attorneys, Tampa. Let's go to the hotline and bring in ABC News correspondent Jordana Miller, who joins us live from Israel. Jordana, great to talk to you again. There seemed to be a little bit of confusion over whether or not Iran rejected the U.S. proposal to end the war. It certainly sounded like they did, but then there were questions about whether or not they actually did through official channels. What have you learned about that? Well, it looks like the latest is that they have told the U.S. through mediators that they are studying the 15-point plan, and they've also put out their demands, which are... I would call them, you know, quite extreme. Yeah. Yeah, they're non-starters, right? I mean, the U.S. is not going to leave the Gulf bases that are there. The U.S. is not going to compensate Iran, right? And the U.S. is not going to promise that they won't strike again, right? So you can see that the positions are very far apart. And so we probably should look at this as... the beginning of a period of negotiation that is likely to continue while we are still seeing the war continue. Yeah, essentially, you've got the U.S. proposal where it's like, we're going to ask for things that Iran has rejected in previous negotiations, and then Iran says we're going to ask for things that we know the U.S. isn't going to accept. It's kind of where we are at the negotiations right now. Right, right. both sides kind of sticking out their, you know, their, um, their highest demands. And obviously that's not going to cut it for, you know, a ceasefire. Not now. But we, again, we may see these negotiations continue while the war is raging, right? I mean, we are, we keep hearing about the efforts to set up some kind of meeting in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. And I think there's some questions about how internally cohesive. Iran is to make a decision about who to send to those talks and even what the Iranian positions would be because they can't come with the same hard demands, right? So where are they going to show flexibility? You know, and as I said, the war is raging on. The Israeli army, you know, a very top... military official has told ABC news that they did target overnight the head of the Navy of the Revolutionary Guard, the very man who ordered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We're still waiting to see, you know, if he was indeed killed. But usually when the Israelis tell us that he was targeted, that means they're pretty sure they got him.

So we're waiting to hear, but that would also be a massive, another big blow for the Iranians because he is a top commander. As I said, he was the one who was setting the policy for the Strait of Hormuz, which, as you know, one of the president's top priorities is to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Yeah, and on that note, we're joined by ABC News correspondent Jordana Miller again coming to us live from Israel. I thought the other big development yesterday was Iran threatening the key waterway that sits opposite the strait of Hormuz on the other side of Saudi Arabia bordering Yemen and Djibouti, which is responsible for like 10% of seaborne trade. That's right. That's the al-Bandivar street. And, you know, everyone's been asking, why haven't the Houdis jumped into the war yet, right? The Iranian proxy that sits in Yemen. And it may be because. If the Iranians decide to close that waterway, the hoodies are right there to fire and attack and join. And that would be a significant escalation, right? We're also seeing a lot of reports. True or not that the Iranians have been booby-trapping, Karg Island, an area, you know, parts of the island, anticipating that the U.S. may try to strike, you know, not only strike Karg Island, which they've done in the past, but actually, you know, try to take over the island in some kind of land or ground operation. We're joined again by ABC News correspondent Jordana Miller. We learned from the Pentagon yesterday that they have conducted over like 10,000 strikes on Iran. But there was also some information. I think it was a Bloomberg report, which was pretty interesting. It took a look at the strikes that Iran has been conducting. And while they've certainly come down in numbers, They seem to be a little bit more effective lately at hitting targets and imposing some costs and creating destruction. What can you tell us about that? Obviously, Israel has been one of their key targets. Yeah, I don't think they've had more success in Israel or the Gulf. I mean, they continue to try to hit oil and gas. infrastructure. And here in Israel, you know, there are several days when every missile fired is intercepted. And then there are days when one or two get through. And lately the Iranians, really for the last several days, they seem to have intensified their strikes on Israel where, you know, they're, on average,

firing 10 missile attacks on Israel a day, sometimes more. And each one is somewhere between one and three missiles. And some of them are cluster missiles, which are, as you know, even if they're intercepted, they cause a lot of damage. The good news is that even through this intensification, and today, by the way, we had already, it's only, you know, it's only about, you know, it's only the afternoon here. We've already had seven missile attacks by Iran, and a few of those that even forced us here in Jerusalem to go to the shelters. And there have been a few people injured lightly, but the Israelis are pretty good about taking cover. ABC News correspondent Jordana Miller, again coming to us live from Israel. Jordana, really appreciate the update and stay safe. Thanks. Talk soon. And right now, let's bring in our national correspondent, Rory O'Neill, whose report is brought to you by Mark Spain real estate. So, Rory, there were a number of different developments yesterday tied to the war with Iran, a little bit of confusion over whether or not Iran rejected the U.S. proposal to end the war. It certainly sounds like, you know, we're proposing all of the things that we have been wanting, including in the... Last round of failed negotiations. Iran responded with all the things that they want, which are basically non-starters. That's kind of where we're at at the beginning of these talks. Right. The White House saying that they're in negotiations. Iran saying these aren't negotiations. They're messaging operations. So, I guess there's a difference there. By the way, quick aside, thank you for posting about the reply, all jerks from the year day. Yeah, of course. Everyone should be fired. Every single person who reply all. And that button should be a, are you sure? things. Yes. Are you sure you want to file? Yeah. That's a great idea, Rory. It's like before you delete a file and says, are you sure? But I want to show you because on my phone. You can see that it defaults to reply all right there. See, it defaults to reply all. This war we're in. It's really not that important. This is much more. Can you see the reply all at the bottom? It defaults to that on my album. There's got to be a setting or something that you can change to fix it. I'm very aware of it now. Ever since I did that one by accident, I'm very careful about that. And then people try to be funny about it. I'm like, I've got stuff going on here. I don't need pink.

Yeah, yeah, you're not funny. And yesterday, after we had that conversation, we were just talking about this, there was a reply all to an email, not as big of a distribution list, but, you know, our South Florida team. And it had at the top of the email the person replied all to a note saying, don't reply all to this. Yes, in caps and highlighted. By the way, I love the note saying, hey, there's pizza in the break room. I'm like, well, let's get back to the war. We've got a war that we have to talk about. One thing that I thought was really interesting, it was from Axios. And in one of their reports, they said Iranian officials have told countries trying to mediate the peace talks that they're a little cautious about talking with the U.S. because they've been tricked twice. by President Trump and they don't want to be fooled again. You know, we're having these talks and then Operation Midnight Hammer. We're having negotiations and then boom, we've got the Iran war. And the quote in the story was great. Trump has a hand open for a deal and the other is a fist waiting to punch you in the effing face. Wow. That's actually like not a bad strategy, right? If you make my deal, but if you don't make the deal I want, bam, yeah. Can we make that a T-shirt? Yeah, that would be a thing. Put that on a red hat. Yeah. And the other thing they're saying is that JD Vance may be getting more involved in some of these negotiations as well. That's a bit of a turn. But, yeah, Pakistan, Egypt, they are sort of volunteering, stepping up saying, we'll help to try to. end this because, you know, their economies depend on the straight being opened as well. Right. Yeah, JD Vance has to get involved. Marco Rubio, he's testifying in criminal trials and he's got like 100 other jobs. So it's kind of difficult. Now, Senator Rick Scott, he said the other day he expects other countries to support our push to reopen the straight. I think other countries are supportive of the push. They ain't getting involved until it's safer for them. Look, that's the problem. that you have here is that you want to reopen the straight, but you don't want to put your assets, your people at risk in order to do it, and they would be at increased risk if we send naval assets or if anybody, if the UK or any other country send naval assets into that area to try to reopen it, they're going to be at risk. Yeah, and you got reporting overnight, by the way, that the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy was also taken out, along with other top people from the Navy there, the operational people. So, yeah, the focus of the strait, I think, is becoming much more intensified because I think even if this is resolved tomorrow, the straight situation will take much, much longer to secure. Yeah, and now you have this other issue, Iran threatening the key waterway that sits opposite. the strait of Hormuz. So it's the other side of Saudi Arabia bordering Yemen and Djibouti, which is my favorite name for a country. And so, you know, you could have the Houthis taking action there and you could have, you know, a real problem on both sides. So, you know, Iran, you can see, I think Sincom announced 10,000 strikes on Iran. There's no question we're overwhelming them militarily, but they still have some cards to play.

Right. They are, you know, that wounded dog is when they're the most dangerous. Sorry, Rory O'Neill. By the way, Cardinal Pizza Bala was back in the news. Speaking of names, you like to say. What's up with him? Oh, I forgot what it was. But yeah, he's involved. Nothing important. I'll Google it. Thanks, Lori. Maybe. Maybe Pizza Bola was taking a trip to Djibouti. Maybe that's what it was. Oh, that's your dream is. All right. Thanks, guys. Thanks, man. Appreciate it. Let's go back to the hotline and bring in our White House correspondent John Decker now. So, John, we've seen the markets bounce back a bit in recent days. And oil, the price of oil has dropped a bit, although it's up this morning. But there are concerns. among a lot of people, voters and economists over how much a longer war with Iran could impact the economy? Well, there are concerns. Moody's put out a note yesterday in which they put the chances for a recession if this is a prolonged conflict at 48%. Goldman Sachs, they forecast the chances for a recession. at 30%. You know, that's higher than what it should be. And the reason it has everything to do with the uncertainty concerning this ongoing conflict with Iran and how long it actually lasts. And we're coming up to another inflection point in this war where it feels like we're either going to have progress on a deal or we're going to have a troop deployment, you know, boots on the grounds there in Iran. And if that's the case, I think, and I'm curious to get your thoughts or what you've heard from economists, people you've talked to, that's when I think concern would really grow over the economy. And some of these gains, some of these positive moves that we've seen over the past couple of days, they could go away real quick. Well, that's right. You know, I was with the president last night. He was speaking to congressional Republicans at a fundraiser. I was part of the pool, and the president still talking about how the Dow hit 50,000. Well, it did hit 50,000. But that was before this conflict began. And now financial markets have really taken a hit. Their concern, concern because of the uncertainty related to the straight of Hormuz. That still remains shut, essentially, to... oil tankers and to cargo ships and that is one of those areas of concern that Wall Street has about this conflict. That is really problematic as far as our economy is concerned and it's the reason why you have these elevated projections of the possibility of a recession. happening sometime this year. Last thing I want to ask you about, there was a classified Iran briefing yesterday, and I wondered if you heard anything about this. You did have the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Republican Mike Rogers. He apparently said that the Trump administration not giving Congress enough information about plans for boots on the ground.

in the Middle East. And Nancy Mace, she walked out of the meeting. She was furious saying that it sounds like they're about to drag us into another Iraq. Did you hear anything about that while you were covering the White House yesterday? Yeah, I heard exactly what you're talking about. These briefings typically are helpful to those lawmakers involved in oversight, the House Armed Services Committee, Senate Armed Services Committee, but the lawmakers that were involved in the briefing that took place yesterday said the briefing was anything but helpful. They did not give, you know, any insight according to those lawmakers in terms of when or whether there would be. potentially boots on the ground. And as you know, we've spoken about it this week, Ryan. There are thousands of U.S. troops that have been deployed to the Middle East, and they will arrive there within the next week. All right. Our White House correspondent, John Decker, with us this morning. John, thanks so much. Thank you. Follow the show and give us your hot take on Facebook, Instagram, and X at Ryan Gorman Show, presented by Farah and Farah, accident attorneys, Tampa.