In Iran, Trump is both escalating and deescalating

This message comes from MintMobile. If you're tired of spending hundreds on big wireless bills, bogus fees, and free perks, MintMobile is for you. Shop plans at mintmobile.com slash switch. Taxes and fees extra. See MintMobile for details. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the White House. And I'm Greg Myrie. I cover national security. And we are recording this at 1.13 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, March 25th. And today on the show, we're nearing the one-month mark of the war in Iran. Franco, President Trump started the week with a post on social media that said, quote, very good and productive conversations were going on with Iran, alluding to the fact that negotiations seemed to be ongoing. to move towards an end of the conflict. What more can you tell us about that? Yeah, it came as Trump announced that he was postponing attacks on Iran power plants for five days. And he said at the time that his team, you know, the envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, were in touch with a, quote, top person in the regime, though he would not say who it was. And, Miles, it really felt like kind of like a turning point in all this. You know, they were potentially moving into this new chapter of the war that's certainly seeing what Trump was signaling and moving toward this kind of negotiating ending. You know, Trump before said that he was not ready to agree to anything, but here he was saying that they were very willing to make a deal, that the U.S. was willing to make a deal. And that he said actually that if he was a betting man, that he would bet on the deal happening. Yesterday, of course, he spoke again about this top person actually delivering on a promise. He called it a big present. He didn't say exactly what that was, but he said it involved oil and gas. And he also said that was a sign, at least, that they were dealing with the right person. I do want to note one more thing, though, that Iran officially is dismissing the idea that they are negotiating anything directly with the U.S. and actually would not negotiate with Steve Witkoff in Jared Kushner because they felt like those two misled them in the lead up to the war. It does feel like it takes two to tango, Greg. And I don't know, doesn't that seem like a... If you have one side saying we're negotiating, things are going really well, but then Iran is denying that this is happening at all. What are we supposed to read from that? Yeah, that they're far apart. And I think that's the only realistic thing you can say right now. I think Trump has hit a point where he feels he's going to have to consider negotiations that the current... plan on the battlefield. Another day or two or three of bombing is not going to make Iran capitulate. So it is significant that Trump is talking about negotiations. But Iran may have time on its side now. It sees the Strait of Hormuz closed and it is in no hurry to bring an end to the war if it doesn't get some of the things that it wants. And one of those is a guarantee that the United States will not wage war again against it and try to topple the refraud.

So, Franco, political pressure is clearly building on... President Trump and all the different dominoes that are falling from this war going on weeks and weeks. I just drove past a gas station in D.C. this week where gas was priced over $5. It was the most expensive station I've driven by in D.C. It's consistently over price. I think I know which one you're talking about. Exactly. I'm not going to name names. But is it fair to say that there is starting to become, I guess, global financial pressure for President Trump to kind of change his tune on this. Yeah, I think, and I think there's no doubt about that. I think Trump clearly knows that as well. And I think you see that in the rhetoric from him over the past. couple weeks, particularly when it has to deal with the Strait of Hormuz, whether it's threatening Iran to, you know, stop what it's doing, stop strikes on cargo ships, to, you know, threatening essentially allies and other Western nations to kind of join this coalition and saying if you don't join and help secure the strait, we will remember those things. But just back to, you know, that... social post and kind of like this turning point, that social post actually came around 7 o'clock in the morning or just after. And that had such an impact on the markets. I mean, oil futures instantly rallied the S&P 500 went soaring before the morning bell. So this is clearly something that is having an impact on markets, and Trump has always paid attention to markets, always. So you've got Trump talking about de-escalation, Greg, but at the same time, isn't the U.S. still building up its military presence in the region? Yeah, Trump always likes to keep his options open. And as I said, without any great movement on the battlefield under the current circumstances, he's basically got two options, escalate or de-escalate. Well, he's sort of chosen A and B talking about a possible peace deal and a de-escalation, but also we're hearing more troops are headed to the region. Two marine units, both have 2,000 troops or a little more, each. One coming from Japan, the other. from California. One should arrive any day now. The other is probably still a couple weeks away. And we've also heard that the 82nd Airborne is going to send about 2,000 troops to the region. So about another 6,000 troops. And these are highly trained troops that could certainly carry out a specific mission. But again, we're 6,000, 7,000 troops. That's not a huge number. There are about 50,000 U.S. troops in the region on ships, airmen.

ground troops. So that adds to that total, which sounds pretty considerable, until you think about the fact that Iran has more than 600,000 troops in its active duty army. So that U.S. presence in the region, even with these additions, would still be less or maybe 10% of what Iran has. So it's not enough to carry out a major ground invasion. It's enough to carry out specific operations. Obviously, the speculation is on things like trying to open the Strait of Hormuz. But Trump has said no boots on the ground at different points related to the Iran conflict. Is that still the working assumption? Essentially, that's what he said. He's given himself some wiggle room saying, I haven't sent. troops anywhere, but if I was, I wouldn't tell you. So he's left himself a little wiggle room, and one could certainly see him choosing that option if it's a specific operation. I mean, I think there's both, you know, if the U.S. troops were to seize an island to help clear the Strait of Hormuz, he might fudge that and say, well, that's not really troops on the ground. That's just part of an operation in the Gulf or to take a small island. Again, I don't think. think there's just enough of a U.S. presence to do a major ground operation, what we've seen in Iraq and Afghanistan in the past. But there wouldn't be a surprise if they were to carry out a small, specific operation. So thinking about, I guess, to your kind of the way you put it, Greg, which I thought was helpful in terms of there's a kind of a de-escalation route and an escalation route. Think about the de-escalation route. Who is leading negotiations at this point on the U.S. side or who's kind of leading the diplomatic effort to move this conflict toward a close? Not entirely clear. We should certainly be looking towards the two people who've been involved in the past, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. However, both of those times last June when they were involved in negotiations, the U.S. joined Israel in bombing Iran. And in February, they were involved. involved in these efforts, and then the U.S. launched this war in Iran. So the Iranians are feeling maybe a little skittish about dealing with these two, and that this doesn't necessarily mean there's going to be a peace deal coming out of that. So there is talk, and I would stress talk or speculation at this point, that the Iranians may want to deal with somebody else. JD Vance, the vice president's name has been raised. We still don't have a venue. fixed. Pakistan is a venue that's been raised. So a lot of uncertainty here. There does seem that these intermediaries, Pakistan, perhaps other countries in the region, are trying to help set up some actual face-to-face talks. But it seems the discussions at this point have been indirect and we're trying to get to the point of some face-to-face or almost face-to-face meetings. All right. Let's take a quick break and more on the Iran conflict in just a moment. Support for NPR and the following message come from Washington Wise. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. Washington Wise from Charles Schwab is an original podcast that unpacks the stories making news and how they may affect your finances and portfolio. Host Mike Townsend and his guests explore policy initiatives for retirement savings, taxes, trade, and more.

Download the latest episode and follow at Schwab.com slash Washington Wise or wherever you listen. This message comes from homeserve, a burst pipe, a dead water heater, the AC calling it quits. Who do you call? HomeServe is an easy way to handle unexpected home repairs. With plans covering stuff, basic homeowners insurance usually won't. Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the repair process started. Join the millions of customers who trust homeserve right now. Go to homeserve.com slash podcast for 50% last your first year. Savings compared to renewal price, Void in Florida. This message comes from Rosetta Stone. Rosetta Stone is designed to make language learning intuitive. It mimics how people naturally acquire speeches children, helping users read, write, and think in a second language. More at rosettastone.com. And we're back. And we talk on the show a lot about President Trump looking for different ways to declare victory in basically any situation. It's clear that he's looking for a way to do that to kind of end this war. And off-ramp is what some people have called it. What are his options at this point? Yeah, Miles, before I get to the options, I want to sort of make a point about the phrase off-ramp, which is what everybody is using. And I think we kind of understand what the meaning is a way to end the war. But literally, when I think of an off-ramp, I think I'm driving down the highway. I'm low on gas. I'm looking for an off-ramp to fill up at the gas station. It's a minor inconvenience you need to deal with. We're talking about a war that really is going to reshape the region. We don't know how it's going to end. the circumstances will be. So it's not just simply an off ramp in the sense that, yeah, hopefully this fighting can stop soon. We're talking about this reordering reconfiguration in the Middle East. So we're talking about a solution to a major. conflict, not just an off-ram. Now, in terms of options, most wars end with negotiations. And you don't see a clear battlefield solution right now, but you see two sides that are very, very far apart. Not only in the goals that were stated initially, but now President Trump would really need to open the Strait of Hormuz, a problem that did not exist. In fact, for decades before this war, that had always been something looming out there that could gum up the oil markets and the global economy. Now the president has to make it a focus of his solution when he was talking about other things like regime change or getting rid of Iran's nuclear program. All of these may still be among the many things he wants to do, but he has to deal with some of the cards that Iran clearly has to play right now.

I'll just add that. You know, I mean, we are talking about President Trump here. And for President Trump, declaring victory is pretty as simple as declaring victory. Everything Greg is saying is absolutely correct. And that's the reality on the ground. But oftentimes, as we've seen in the past, the reality on the ground is not necessarily what Trump is looking at. He just wants a reason to be able to call something a win, whether it's a peace deal around the country or in this scenario. And he's basically done that for. the most part, including just yesterday, saying that they have basically won the war. Clearly, that's not the case. But for Trump, I think the victory that he's looking for is if he can basically get the Strait of Hormuz open, then he can at least say, by his own definition, that they have won the war because, you know, while the regime may still be there, they're clearly degraded. And he's kind of backed off and on about whether he really wants regime change or whether at least that's necessary to end this. So is regime change just completely? completely off the table at this point in terms of – that was something that was mentioned a lot earlier this year in terms of President Trump talking about the protesters in Iran and how they were treated by the regime. And then early in this conflict, President Trump begging the people of Iran to basically stand up for themselves. Are we hearing any of that sort of language now? We're really not. He stopped talking about protesters are rising up. And certainly the analysis from analysts is – That's just not likely. It's just not realistic to be talking about at this point. The Iranian government and military have shown that they can absorb these heavy blows, the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign. Huge damage has been done to be sure to their military capabilities. They had a weak Navy and Air Force to begin with. That's really been decimated. Its missile program, its drone program have all been set back very substantially. But at some level, the government government is still functioning, and so is the military. It's still carrying out attacks. And we heard Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, testify last week, saying Iran's government is weakened, but it's still intact. Dozens of top leaders have been killed, including the previous Supreme Leader. been replaced by a new Supreme Leader. It's just, there's not a clear path to regime change at this point. Yeah, I think when the new Supreme Leader was announced, I think that really, you know, kind of changed the narrative for the Trump administration because he was really talking a lot about regime change and all the steps towards regime change before then. But then when, you know, kind of Iran dug in their heels and said they were going to continue to fight, the administration quickly kind of backed off that kind of language and focused more. on the military goals. I did find it interesting, though, yesterday. Trump kind of, you know, twisted himself or at least twisted the language into a little pretzel in order to say that this was still regime change, saying that they have killed so many leaders. How could it not be regime change? And then floated again the idea that this new person that they're supposedly talking with. could eventually be the person who kind of serves as, you know, in what we've talked about before, this Venezuela-type model where it is actually the same regime, but it's a new person involved. Greg, I want to ask before we close just about how the region moves forward from this, no matter how it ends. Can you talk a little bit about the U.S. relationship with other countries in the region and how the other countries are kind of viewing this conflict and thinking about it?

Yeah, one thing I think that has gotten some attention, but not enough, are the Gulf states. And we're talking about six Muslim. Arab countries, all with hereditary monarchies, all which are very conservative, very averse to change. And they all opposed the war. They were against this war beginning. And now that it's begun, their big concern is that Trump may just call it off and pull out and sort of leave them with a mess behind, that the Strait of Hormuz issue may not be resolved, that they are clearly within striking distance from Iran. hit every day with Iranian missiles and drones. And now that Iran has crossed that threshold, that would be an ongoing threat they would have to face. And so they're very worried in terms of their security, in terms of their economy. They're going to be left in a much weaker and more vulnerable position if this war just ends abruptly without a clear. decisive measure. And their brand is stability. They've prospered by being this coastline of stability in the volatile Middle East. And if they get dragged into this volatility, that throws their brand, their image completely up in the air. And so that's a huge concern for them. All right. Well, let's leave it there for today. The political news does seem like it's change again, and especially rapid pace right now. But this podcast is here to help you make sense of it. Please do not miss an episode. Hit that follow button wherever you listen to your podcast. And we'll be right back in your feet tomorrow. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the White House. And I'm Greg Myrie. I cover national security. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

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