Capital Insights

Is that the World Cup theme? I was going to say. No Olympic theme for you today. The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat bumper music is missing. Not this time, sir. How about some bagpipes? How about them? How about them? How about them Scots? Are they down to Florida now? Yes, they moved on. They went to Miami. Who would have thought that visitors from away could... empty every beer can in the greater Boston area. When it's the Scots, I could believe it. I can believe it. Remember, there's no drinking age up there, so they start when they're like eight. A little more professional out of it than we are. Let's get it refreshing, though, to hear them through their words and through their eyes tell us how great America is. Yeah, I've made that point quite a bit over the last couple weeks. It's really been... Honestly, nice to see the visitors to the United States and watching their social media content and whatever because it's been so positive about the United States in a way that you don't even hear us say very often anymore. There's many people who politically see things differently than you and I do, Matt, who think America is terrible. Yeah. Yeah, but I mean, even me. I love America, right? But, you know, do I truly, do I truly appreciate what I live in? Because a lot of the points they make, like, it's gigantic. It's an enormous country, right? Which it is. The natural beauty that you can find in like the deserts of Arizona versus, you know, the northeast woods versus, you know, the Yosemite or something like. It's amazing to see just that part of it. And then you get into the food and you get into the various culture. I mean, like there's people in Kansas City. There's people in Miami. There's people in Texas. There's people in Boston. Talk about different places. Yeah. You want to get a flavor of the United States. Like that's a different group of people in every single. on one of those places. Well, I would just encourage those who want to find the negativity and find all the reasons to put America down. Go visit other places and spend some time there. And you will quickly discover that, boy, you're complaining about something that you should be so grateful that you live here. Indeed. Indeed, I say. Phil Harriman. Good morning. Since last we spoke, we now have actual results. Isn't that unbelievable? Nine days. Yeah, it feels to me like that happened like... A month ago, or a month ago. But it actually was just Friday morning at 1.30 in the morning. But I'm looking at the tabulations right now. I'm not sure how much of this you even want to get into. But end of the day, Bobby Charles is now your official nominee. And he, in the last round, was pretty clearly the choice. I mean, it was 59,873 voters.

to 39,49,499 for Midgley. He was in the second place finisher. Are those exact numbers? Those are exact numbers. That is exact numbers, baby. But anyway, so he won comfortably. And on the Democratic side, of course, we heard from her today. Hannah Pingree ultimately prevailed even though she was the second place finisher in the first round. The first loser becomes the winner. It's ranked choice voting, ladies and gentlemen, where losers become winners. So Hannah Pingree, you probably have already figured this out. She is the only candidate that got the majority of the votes that were cast. Think about that. Yeah. Bobby Charles, Matt Dunlap, of all the people who voted. Neither of those two candidates got 50% of the people who voted. And I think she barely did it. It was like 51% for her. Supposed, you know, supposedly ranked choice voting is to get us to a majority. No, no, it doesn't. Yeah. Well, I mean, if you count it right, if you count it the way. See, that's what I hate about it the most is you could choose to count it in different ways and their logical ways to count it. Why is it that Maine and Alaska are the only two states out of the 50 that... Vote this way. Ranked choice voting. Why? Because it's terrible. And we all know it is. And so the other states that have considered it have said, no, thanks, we're good. Appreciate the offer, but we're going to hold off and do what we usually do. And I'm told by my friends on the other side of the aisle that if it wasn't for those mean-spirited knuckle-dragging Republicans in the legislature, they would have had a bill to amend the Constitution so that the November elections would be ranked choice. So here we are in the primary. You've got, you've got to rank these candidates. But in the general election, perhaps where it matters most, there's no ranked choice voting, which I think is what most people put. They want to know on election night. Who won? If Florida can count eight million votes before midnight, you would think in Maine where would we have 300,000 people vote in the primary and it took us nine days? Yeah. Yeah. Listen, man, preach, brother. I have nothing else to say other than I agree. It's a terrible system. But yet it is here. Do you think that there is any in like Dr. Shaw's head or Joe Baldacci's head? Oh, it's got to be. Is there any soreness to the fact that they're not currently the nominee, even though they won that first round? Yes. But not enough to have them come out and say, this is a terrible system. We should scrap it. Well, it's ideology over individualism. Okay.

fine if you want to be a beta male and just like let them you know roll over and show them your belly and say okay you win it's all yours i guess you can do that yeah well that's what that seems to be what they've done uh you know over in the cd2 race you know we just uh mentioned it in passing but matt dunlap uh somewhat i i don't know i would say unexpectedly i thought it was going to be baldachi that was the only one i got wrong was that race um But he ended up prevailing in the end by about 3,000 votes. Jordan Wood people ended up being pretty evenly split. Oh, no, excuse me, not evenly split. He went pretty strongly to Dunlap, which is what I thought was going to be the opposite. I thought they were going to go for Baldacci, but I guess the messaging from Dunlap saying I'm a progressive, you're a progressive, let's be progressive together, worked? I think he did. You've known Matt Dunlap a long time. I served with Matt Dunlap. Yes. You, sir, are no, Jack Robert F. Kennedy Jr.. You know what he really is versus what he said he is. And it's interesting that the voters took the what he said he is. Yeah, well, you just touched the key intersection or the key nerve of... who wins the second CD. Matt, I think on the surface comes across as I was Secretary of State. I'm an outdoorsman. I've served my old town vicinity community in the legislature. I'm the state auditor, affable, likable guy. versus the policies that he advocated to win the primary, right? Very different, I think, agenda than what historically the second congressional district has elected. Yeah, very, very true. So now let's look ahead to these general election matchups, Phil Harriman. Start with the governor's race. Yep. We've got Bobby Charles, Hannah Pingree, and, of course, Rick Bennett. Don't forget about Rick. What do you think is going to happen? Like if the election were held today, what do you think would happen and what do you think is going to develop over time? Will it stay like that? Will it change? What do you think is going to happen? If it was today, we'd be talking about Governor Pingree. She's already got the built-in coalition of the organized labor, the state employees, the teachers, the infrastructure of government, the nonprofit organizations, the progressives are already behind her. And I say that because I think Charles and Bennett would split the rest and you only need to get, what, 34%. Ish, and you're the governor. So if that's going to change, Bobby Charles, I think, is going to have to introduce himself to a wider audience than he did to win the primary, and they have to perceive him as having a practical, understandable approach to how he's going to accomplish these things like get rid of the income tax, which sounds great, but that's a lot of revenue.

that would leave the state checkbooks. He's going to have to explain how do we get there in a way in which people are able to grab it and embrace it. Rick Bennett's going to have to appeal to both sides. He's literally going to have to get Republican votes and Democrat votes and the independents. And that, at least today, is a pretty tough challenge. And yet, and yet, Maine has a long history of loving that pitch. Yep. I mean, look at the wall right there. Angus King, independent for governor. Is he independent? No. Does he like to pretend he is? Yes. Does that sign say independent for governor? It does. Did it work? It absolutely worked. But, you know, you forgot the one that I used to work for, which was Jim Longley. Well, I mean, I stopped. I stopped it, Brennan. So it's before, you want me to add another one? Well, you ran out of WallSports. Look at this. There's not much space here. It's beautiful. I'm going to have to add somebody today or this year, excuse me. Yeah. So maybe, you know what? I'll tell you what. I'll add Jim Longley, just to make you happy. Thank you. Put it before Brennan, right? Yeah. And then I'll add, you know, this year's. And then we'll have an even number, you know, again. It'll be eight instead of six. Perfect. So the reason I mentioned Jim Longley is because he was a Democrat, conservative Democrat. Campaign is an independent against George Mitchell and Jim Irwin, the Republican nominee. And in a stunning election, primarily because he got most of the votes in Lewiston, Auburn, Jim Longley, former Democrat, got elected independent governor. And I would say to you, and I would challenge anyone to prove me wrong, he governed as an independent. Yes. He truly was an independent. Yeah, I think he was certainly the, I mean, he was a true independent. Yes. I mean, he certainly had some fiscally conservative, you know, instincts. And there's a lot of that in him, sure. But he was, I think an honest middle of the roadish, like, I'm here for the people kind of guy, which, by the way, is indicated by the fact that he said, I'm only going to serve one term. And he is done after one term. And they tried to talk him desperately into running again. And he's like, no, I promised people. I'm not doing it. How refreshing that would be today, huh? Well, it is. Nothing I would accomplish in my second term would overcome the promise I made to Mainers that I would only serve one term as governor. Yes. All right. So that's that race. The CD2 race. You've got Matt Dunlamp against Paul Page. I would imagine the Kalshi or the Polly Market. It probably has a strong LaPage will win trend right now. You know, depending on the national environment and how things shape up, there's races every year where people who have no business winning end up winning because of that kind of thing happening. So is this a year where there is a real threat that you could have Matt Dunlap be the congressman from the second district, or does Paul the page have this more or less sewn up? How do you view CD2? I think Paul LePage is going to be elected, and the reason I say that is the voting patterns of the second district are completely unique compared to the first district. And if you look at who's served in the past, you've got Jared Golden, you got Mike Mishu, you got John Baldacci, Olympia Snow. These are people who have a track record of being...

hopefully September, October, where Grant Graham Platner is going to have to stand up and speak up and say, okay, this is how I will govern as a senator. This is how much I know about the process of... how the Senate makes laws. And this is how much knowledge I have about key issues around the world that are going to be impacting his decision every day, as opposed to we're going to blow the place up and rebuild it and it's going to become a socialist utopia. I think the closer people get to the election, the more they're going to tune into, well, Gee, you know, if you've been there for 30 years and you've been serving the people of Maine well and you're in a position of leadership, which comes with not by merit but by longevity, we're going to toss all that away for someone who... Well, do you think that any voters care about that? I mean, I know they should, but do they? Well, I heard her ad. That's the key that Susan Collins has got to get out to the people. She's running some positive ads now, trying to restore some of that shine that maybe has been worn off by Plano just nuking her all this time. And she brings up the fact that she serves in the very powerful Senate appropriations committee. You know, you know what that means. I know what that means. If you're a random voter who doesn't really live and breathe this, do you hear that and go, eh, cool? You know, like, do you actually understand or value? that kind of thing to the degree that I'm sure Susan Collins wants you to. Because that's one of the biggest arguments for her is I'm in this golden position. I'm in this place that I can help me more than anybody who's been here since probably George Mitchell. Let me keep doing it. It's a good argument, but it requires the voter to understand that you're going to have a freshman senator. who's going to be on the farm committee or whatever, you know, who has no power and no poll and would probably take 20 years to get anything versus somebody who is in a position today to help everything from Bath Ironworks to blueberry farmers to the fisheries to et cetera. Do they get it? Yeah, they don't. Okay. They don't. And when you say powerful and committee in the same sentence, screams establishment. Committees? Oh, yeah. Tell me about these historic committees that we have celebrated throughout history. It's a really good point because I think that that means, to me, most people hate Congress. They think that they don't do anything and that they actually probably hurt you. So you being in charge of a committee of Congress.

is probably something they view is a bad thing. Right. But here's the anecdote. Susan Collins can walk into almost any community in Maine, literally anywhere, and point to something that she has done that has created a better port, a better fire station, a better public safety outcome, a better reimbursement rate for medical services, et cetera. She has done that consistently, and I would say humbly, for her entire career. So hopefully it's the town managers and the Marine Patrol and the wardens and the firefighters and the EMTs who are telling their neighbors. Hey, boy, thanks to Senator Susan Collins, we're in good shape. And that could be the anecdote to a chair of powerful committee. All right, unfortunately, Phil Harriman. Am I out of here? You're out of here. You hear that music coming? Right there. That's your cue. That's your audible cue. That's my invitation to gracefully say, good morning, everyone.