Mark Carney’s Saudi Arabia reboot

This week on two blocks from the White House, it's been revealed that Donald Trump earned at least $2 billion during his first year back in the White House. So we're asking, how has the president made so much in office? And is it even allowed? Join me, Willie Lowry, and my fellow Washington correspondents, Paul Hunter, and guest host Katie Nicholson as we break down U.S. politics from a Canadian perspective. Find and follow two blocks from the White House wherever you get your podcasts. And watch us on YouTube every Wednesday. This is a CBC podcast. Hey, everybody. I'm Jamie Poisson. Mark Carney, coming off his trip to Turkey for the NATO summit, headed to Saudi Arabia at the end of this week, meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aiming to deepen the relationship between the two countries on things like AI and critical minerals. I complimented His Royal Highness this afternoon on many things. His leadership, his vision, his attention to execution and action. The Prime Minister also had some praise for the Royal Household's military band. But I also complimented him on the quality of the military band of the Royal Household. Because they played an absolutely flawless O Canada. And they have not played O Canada for 26 years because that's when the last Canadian Prime Minister. Yes, it has been 26 years since a Canadian Prime Minister visited the country, despite the fact that they are a major trading partner, our second largest in the Gulf. But that relationship has come with friction over things like Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen human rights abuses and political repression at home. Canadian-Saudi relations hit an all-time low during Justin Trudeau's tenure, and Dennis Horac was expelled from his post as Canada's ambassador in 2018. Now, almost eight years later, he is applauding this move by the current government to renew the relationship. And he's here to talk about that with me. So let's get straight to it. Dennis, thank you so much for coming back on to Front Burner. It's great to have you. My pleasure. Just to start, how significant is it that for the first time in 26 years, a Canadian Prime Minister is visiting Saudi Arabia? I think it's very important. First of all, in that part of the world in particular, they put a lot of value in face-to-face engagement, face-to-face contact. And most of our allies, most of our competitors, really, have recognized that and have a steady stream of senior visitors into Saudi Arabia. And it's something that we just didn't do. So I think that was to our detriment, and this is a good correction. And I know we're going to get into this very dramatic break that we had with the kingdom in 2018 in more detail in a little bit. But just why is it taken 26 years? Like even Stephen Harper had much warmer relations with Saudi than the Trudeau government and he still didn't go.

Yeah, I'm surprised by that myself, actually. I was surprised at the time I was in Ottawa for some of the period that Harper was prime minister and I was working in the Middle East Bureau. So it was something because, as you say, there was a lot of emphasis placed on by the Harper government on relations with the Gulf states. It may have just been scheduling problems or there may have been other issues. It's not clear. I mean, they certainly had good relations with Saudi Arabia. We signed a major defense agreement at the time. And it was a surprise. I have no particular explanation for it. It just may have been circumstances at the time. There was an aging king at the time, et cetera. So it could have been a variety of different logistical factors. It certainly wasn't an ideological concern. Just flesh out for me why the government is saying that it is particularly important for them to strengthen relations with Saudi Arabia right now and why you think it's particularly important for them to do that as well. Well, I think there's a couple of factors that play here. Certainly, it's part of the government's global economic diversification efforts. We've seen this across the world, frankly. The Prime Minister has gone around trying to develop new economic partnerships with a variety of countries in Asia, Latin America, elsewhere. So I think it's part of that process. And Saudi Arabia is a major economic power, certainly in the region, and also with global significance in terms of... its ability to impact the oil markets, for example. It's a very large investment fund. So it's a potentially a valuable partner for us. Also, they're opening themselves up more to inward investment, and there may be opportunities for Canada there. On top of that, you also have a region, as we've seen over the past four months in particular. that is potentially very volatile with global implications, as we've seen since the war in Iran. Saudi Arabia is a key player in this region, geopolitically. They have a dependence on the movement of goods through the straight-Armuz, and so that's an issue, I think, certainly the government will be talking with the Saudis about, but also what they see in terms of where this conflict with Iran is going. What are the longer-term implications? What role is Saudi or can other countries play in helping to try and stabilize the region? Additionally, you have the issue of the Levant, if you will, Gaza, Lebanon, all of those issues where Saudi potentially can also be a partner in terms of... reconstruction in Gaza, for example, or trying to bolster the Lebanese government as they're trying to face off against Hezbollah. So there are a variety of factors, a variety areas and issues that Saudi Arabia can be and traditionally have been influential players. And I think it's important for Canada to sort of get a sense of that and where they are, what they're doing. Are there synergies in terms of what we can contribute to these various processes, but also largely just... getting information, helping us develop our approach, helping us develop our policy.

Just on the trade stuff, I just want to get into a little bit more with you what it is that we want from Saudi Arabia and what they could give or take from us. Carney was talking about things like mining, expertise in mining. Critical minerals in mining, new Canadian engineering partnerships are working on some of the most ambitious mining projects here unlocking. over $2 trillion of mineral wealth. specifically nuclear energy and expertise in that, infrastructure investments on both sides, AI, like just talk to be a little bit more about what it is we're talking about here when we're talking about a deepening, like economic relationship. Yeah, there's a variety of opportunities. Saudi, since this Vision 2030 came in 2016, part of it has been economic and social reforms, focus in large part on also. diversification of their own economy, to try and lessen their dependence on oil, to look at mining, for example. And there have been efforts over the years, even before that, to try and develop their mines. And Canada has had some cooperation with them on that. And I think there's going to be greater emphasis on that. The Saudis are also looking to get into AI in a big way, and there may be synergies for Canada there. Prime Minister Carney says Canada needs to open up new markets for business and investment. And that's why we're now here in Saudi Arabia, in Riyadh, where we're looking at new investments in AI and technology. And so I think they'll be looking at a broad scope of opportunities to try and take advantage of the diversification efforts of the Saudis are undertaking in a big way and pouring money into domestically. Also, the Saudis have a large public investment fund, and there perhaps are opportunities for Saudis to increase their investments in Canada, infrastructure, various other things, perhaps. They're looking to diversify their partnerships as well, and Canada provides some opportunities for them. They've already invested, for example, they invested years ago in the Canadian wheatboard, but there may be other opportunities as well for them to invest in other areas that are a priority for Canada. So I think we're coming to Saudi Arabia at a time. building the relationship at a time where both countries are looking to diversify and looking for partners in those diversification efforts. You know, up until now, I mean, even though the diplomatic relations between the two countries have been incredibly strained, we have been trading quite a bit with the Saudis. Carney pointed out that this is our second largest trading relationship in the Gulf. The private sector has kept the relationship alive, the commercial relationship a lot. But we barely scratched the potential of the relationship. And today is part of the...

the next phase of building out. Totaling $3.5 billion last year, and I know that one of our top exports to the kingdom includes these light armored vehicles, will the defense industry be a key part of their relationship moving forward as well? It could be. I'm not sure we're going to get the kind of contract, large contract we had with the light armored vehicle contract. We'll see. It depends on what the Saudis are looking to do in terms of their own purchases. The Saudis tend to gear a lot of their arms purchases to building relationships. Sometimes it's not even about the actual arms they're importing. It's about the relationship that that arms deal both supports and underscores. So, for example, vast majority of what they imported has been from the United States reflecting the security partnership they have in the United States, also the quality of American military goods, but also with Britain and France and other countries. Now, I don't think they're looking for that sort of strategic partnership with Canada, although... you know, perhaps, but they're, as they're looking to sort of learn the lessons from this war with Iran, maybe there are opportunities for Canada on drone technology, for example, or counter drone technology, so aviation, that sort of thing. So there may be opportunities there.

A history of the United States in 100 Objects is a brand new podcast from 99% Invisible and BBC Studios. Each week, we're looking at a different object from across American history with a unique story to tell about who we've been, what we've built, and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well known. Many are not, but all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a history of the United States and 100 objects on the 99% of visible feed wherever you get your podcasts. So I want to pivot now a little bit to how we got here to this kind of resetting of the relationship that we're seeing this week. If you think that that's a fair characterization, Canada and the Saudis have been moving closer together after they normalized diplomatic relations and appointed ambassadors in 2023. But you were embroiled in this. enormous fallout in 2018 when you were expelled from your position as ambassador to Saudi Arabia. And it came after a tweet by Global Affairs and then Foreign Minister Christopher Freeland. Remind me about this tweet. And then what ensued? The context of the tweet was that the Trudeau government had no time for Saudi Arabia whatsoever. was highly critical of Saudi Arabia. I'm prepared to speak up for Saudi women, and I think our entire government is. Even as Saudi started to institute these reforms. Vision 2030, a massive makeover for the country aimed at modernizing and diversifying the country's economy and culture. Entertainment options suddenly flourished, including the country's first comic convention where men and women shared the same space previously not allowed. There was a reluctance on the part of the government to even acknowledge the positive aspects of some of these reforms. And if they did say anything positive, it would always be accompanied by a critique of their broader human rights issue, or their broader human rights condition. So the Saudis were not fans. Let's put it that way. So... In the months leading up to the tweet, there had been a tightening of political space. It's sort of the contrast. If you had this, these important and meaningful and real economic and social reforms, dealing with, for example, women's employment and driving and all of that. But at the same time, a tightening of political space for political dialogue or political discussion, dissent, if you will. And... That was reflected in the spring of 2018 with the arrest of a number of women's rights activists, many of whom had been very active on trying to promote, for example, women's driving. So they were detained, which was a surprise to many of us there because of we had seen this opening. But perhaps they wanted to send a signal that this was not a political opening. This was not opening a space for political dissent or dialogue or discussion in Saudi Arabia. And then subsequently in the summer, and then we also had issues with the spouse of a Canadian, Raif Badawi, who had been detained. And his sister was also active when she had been detained. He is a Saudi blogger and human rights activist who was arrested in 2012 from being critical of the authorities. He's been lashed 50 times.

His sister, Samar Badawi, is a women's rights activist who has been internationally recognized for her work. So the summer of the side of the minister decided to issue a tweet, condemning both the detention of women's rights activists, but also. Royfe Badawi's sister. Very alarmed to learn that Samir Badawi, Raif Badawi's sister, has been imprisoned in Saudi Arabia. Canada stands together with the Badawi family in this difficult time and we continue to strongly call for the release of both Raif and Samir Badawi. Now, a Global Affairs Department Twitter account also condemned more broadly the arrest of civil society and women's rights activists and called for their immediate release. And the language was a bit harsher than we had used previously. I was on holiday in Canada, as a matter of fact, at the time. So I hadn't seen it. I didn't know what had happened. And the Saudis had had enough. I spoke with them the day that the tweet came out and they were very upset about it. They phoned me actually. I was, again, in Toronto. And I was supposed to go back a couple of days later. And I said, look, when I get back, we can chat about this. We'll talk about this. And in the meantime, I'll talk to Ottawa about it. And then later that day, they made the statement that I was being expelled and the relationship was being downgraded on a number of different economic levels and education exchanges and that sort of thing. So it was a big surprise. General consensus, only of... amongst Canadians, but amongst colleagues in the region, other countries, that this was a massive reaction. Whether that was intended as a message to other countries, look, this is what can happen if you cross these lines. And with very little cost of the Saudis, since we had very little political, none, virtually no political engagement with them, we were sort of an easy target, but also a target that was a G7 country that was being punished for this. And there are probably a variety of other factors that play there too, but that's basically what happened. And so, I couldn't go back. Yeah, I remember that that episode also sparked that kind of wild post from that pro-Saudi government Twitter account that depicted like a plane flying into the CN Tower, like a 9-11 attack. Yeah. But that caption is like sticking one's nose where it doesn't. belong he who interferes with what doesn't concern him finds what doesn't please him like it was it got really yeah it was again it was way over the top and and there was there was some discussion that that we were interfering in their affairs because we had published this tweet also in arabic which is something we always did we always translated any tweets that were coming from the government from the minister we would translate them into arabic and send them out

We want to show to the entire world our hatred for the British and the American governments. We are here to close the British Embassy forever, as this place is like the U.S. Embassy, a centre for spying and should be shut down. Minister Baird immediately got on the phone to me to see what was going on and to also let... me know to tell the staff that they were concerned about us, you know, they were monitoring the situation very closely, and to give some sort of reassurance to the staff. That's what a minister should do. And the contrast to me, because I lived both of those experiences, was telling. You know, I just want to kind of push the other side a little bit here that maybe this was a good stand for them to take because it wasn't long after in October 2018 that Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi went missing after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Khashoggi, the one-time insider, crossing the red line he'd so skillfully tread in the past, daring to criticize the crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. I still see him as a reformer, but he is gathering all power within his hand. Did you order the murder of Jamal Khashoggi? Absolutely not. This was a heinous crime. But I take full responsibility as a leader in Saudi Arabia. And then the CIA concluded that he was killed and dismembered in a plot approved by the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. The declassified report says the prince approved a plan to either capture or kill Khashoggi who had criticized the Saudi regime. You know, I wonder if that incident kind of changed anything for you. No. There are countries all over the world that do horrible things, and we object to them, and we rightly so. We should object to them. We should voice our concerns, and we do. But you can maintain normal levels of diplomatic relations with them at the same time. The Russian government killed Navalny. We didn't kick out the Russian ambassador. We didn't pull our ambassador out because it's an important relationship. You can do both at the same time. Having full diplomatic relations is not approval of a particular country. It doesn't say we agree with everything. It doesn't mean that we support everything you do. Diplomatic relations are about, very often, about maintaining contact and dialogue with countries over the things you disagree about. So I don't think it served our interests at all. I mean, again, I think what it did was, again, this sense of satisfaction amongst some within Canada that we did the right thing, that we stood up for human rights and look how horrible this country is and look what horrible things that they do.

I want to interrogate with you this idea that human rights was the only thing on the Trudeau government's agenda, right? Because even after this break with the Saudis, they did continue to send arms and armored vehicles to Saudi Arabia, upholding that $15 billion light armored vehicle deal with Stephen Harper that we talked about. And Saudi Arabia has been embroiled in this war with Yemen. And back then, the UN called it the worst humanitarian crisis in the world at the time. And I remember that Global Affairs came out in 2020 and said that there was no credible evidence that Canadian rifles and vehicles are being used in Yemen, but experts at Project Plowshares and Amnesty International came out with a report the following year refuting that claim. They presented evidence to the contrary, including multiple... images from Yemen that showed Canadian vehicles and rifles. And the Trudeau government said that they were looking for a way to get out of the deal, but they didn't. And why did they ultimately not get out of the deal? And do you see a kind of hypocrisy there? Well, a couple of things. In terms of the use of Canadian vehicles in Yemen, it's a very complicated issue. It depends what they were used for. Were they used for their purposes that were intended? I mean, there was a war going on, and light armed vehicles are to protect soldiers. If they're fighting Uthis that are firing, and there were detectiles being fired from Yemen into Saudi Arabia. So it wasn't Saudi doing all the pounding. So the Saudis... If they went into Yemen, into the border areas, and used light armored vehicles to deal with those rockets and other projectiles, that's a legitimate use of the weapons, the reasons they were sold. I mean, when you sell weapons, they're going to get used. I mean, that's the reality. But I take your point, it's a little bit more complicated. Yeah, still. But in terms of the broad question of, is it hypocrisy? Well, I mean, sorry, I'll add one more point. I mean, it's not just the human rights abuses that Saudi River was accused of. And Yemen, these light armored vehicles have also been used by the Saudis and their crackdowns on the Shia populated areas. Well, again, it's a little more complicated than that. It depends which vehicle is you're talking about, you're talking about the Gerkers, you're talking about the labs because the photos that were shown. At the time of the labs heading for the area, there's no indication that those ones, the labs were used. And based on the observations of people that I spoke to that were there, there were very different conclusions that were drawn. Though I'm sure there are people who will make the argument that they shouldn't have been used at all. No, absolutely. I understand that. And there are many people that say we shouldn't be selling arms. We shouldn't have an arms industry at all. But the fact of the matter is, if you have an arms industry. The weapons you're selling are not going to be used for parade purposes. They're going to be used in war, and that's going to mean anyhow. But the broader, I want to come back to your broader issue is, why didn't they cancel it? Yeah. Well, partly because there was a contract in place, which had legal implications for Canada where we did cancel it because the grounds for cancellation were, I don't think, were there. The other question was there was thousands of jobs involved in this in Canada, and you were going to close this down.

and undercut Canada's credibility as a supplier, not just to Saudi Arabia, but other countries in the future, because not all our purchasers are Western European countries. So there was a reputational risk as well. So I think there was a, at that point, there was a recognition that there are legal repercussions here, but also reputational duplications for canceling contract. And also jobs. Yeah. Do you see ultimately a hypocrisy there with their kind of feminist foreign policy, human rights rhetoric and what actually happened? Yeah, I think, I mean, I see the point, yes, because it was, you know, it was all about holding Saudi Arabia to account, but, you know, don't pay attention to any of the weapons we're selling over here. Governments have to make those kinds of compromises based on, again, legal, political, reputational risks. Whether that meant, like, should it maybe tone down the rhetoric a little bit, or maybe the reason they up the rhetoric is to sort of try and, you know, draw attention to how they were actually on the side of the angels on this one issue and, you know, were forced to do this other one. So, again, it plays into what the politics of the moment are. and what audience you're trying to hit as well. I mean, when we were issuing tweets about human rights situation in Saudi Arabia or frankly any other country, the audience there isn't the country. It isn't Saudi Arabia or isn't China. That audience, for those tweets, is to get likes in Canada and amongst other like-minded organizations or individuals around the world and to get a thumbs up. And that's great. It makes you feel good. It does nothing to change the situation. So now...

Do the contrast for me of how you see this government, this current government, Carney's government, pursuing a very different track. Yeah, it's a much more pragmatic. It's a much more, I think, mature. It's the kind of approach that, frankly, most of the countries in the world take with Saudi Arabia, that you can engage them. You can talk with them. You can have a productive relationship with them. and still have concerns about what's going on. I mean, I talk a lot about a simple basic diplomatic formula. That engagement gives you access, and access gives you an opportunity for influence. Whether that influence will be... effective, who knows, but at least you're talking to the right people because you've engaged with them on a variety of other issues. If you're just going to go in and yell at them about human rights, they're not going to listen to you. It's like yelling at your neighbor dropping the garbage on the end of your street. If you don't even know the guy's name, he's not going to listen to you. If you're friendly with them or you have a rapport with them, a relationship with them, maybe if you're complaining about them making a mess at the end of your driveway, maybe they'll listen. Maybe they won't. Who knows? But it's that sort of a simple, basic human interaction. Lecturing countries from afar is an ineffective strategy. It's satisfying, but it's ineffective. Engagement can be effective. It doesn't mean it's always effective. It doesn't mean it's decisive and can be effective. So I think the party government, as I said, as do most governments in the world, have this sort of sense of we can do both. We can have engagement and we can also raise concerns when we have them because we have the opportunity to do that in a way that's perhaps more effective and to perhaps also have influence on the ground in a way that really affects people's lives. And there were examples when I was there about. The kind of relationship we had with Saudi Arabia. I mean, the education one piece is a classic example. There were thousands and thousands of Saudis who studied in Canada, not just medicine, but other fields as well. Many of whom went back to Saudi Arabia being agents of change, came back to Saudi Arabia with a different perspective on things. One guy. who was at St. Mary's. He went back and started a company solely geared to helping women enter the workforce. And whether he would have done that had you not gone to St. Mary's, I don't know. But the fact is, he did. And that had much more of an impact on the lives of Saudi women. than any number of tweets that could have been issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. That feels like a good place for us. And Dennis, thank you. As always, it's really great to have you on and to hear your thoughts. My pleasure.

All right, that is all for today. Front Burner was produced this week by Joytha Shen Gupta, Matthew Almaha, Kevin Sexton, Mitchell Stewart, and McKenzie Cameron. Our YouTube producer is John Lee. Our music is by Joseph Shabison. Our senior producers are Elaine Chow and Imogen Burchard. Our executive producer is Nick McCabe Locos. I'm J.B. Poisson. Talk to you next week. For more CBC podcasts, go to cBC.ca slash podcasts.