Trading up to an AI-proof career

Vantage Score, the modern credit score used by 3,700 institutions, including nine of the top 10 banks. Built with trended and alternative data, Vantage Score is more predictive, scoring 33 million more consumers than conventional credit scores. Now accepted by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for conforming mortgages, Vantage Score 4.0, safely unlocks approximately 2.7 million new mortgages and up to $1 trillion in new loans. Better credit score, better data, better mortgage decisions. Vantagescore.com. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odu, the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-on-one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier, from CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part, Odu replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. This is why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odo for free at Odu. That's O-D-O-O-O-com.

On the program today, what this week told us about the economy, who's in the labor force, who's out, who's trying something new? And hey, when was the last time you went to a country store? From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Portland, Oregon, Oregon.

Again, I'm Rima Grace in for Kai Rizdal. It is Friday, the 3rd of July. Good to have you along with us. All right, no, we're just going to jump right into things. It's a Friday, which means we're reflecting on the week that was. And here to do it with me are Sedeep Reddy from MS Now and Courtney Brown with Axios. Hey, you two. Hey, Brima. All right, let's start with the June jobs report. We added 57,000 new jobs last month. Courtney, in a piece you wrote, you called it a yellow card for the labor market. Tell me, what you mean by that? Can you tell we're in a World Cup spirit over at Axios? I love it. Yeah, I mean, I think 57,000 jobs, not horrible, not great, and it comes after really strong months of hiring in March, April, and May.

So one week month does not undo three, you know, strong months. But it's a little bit of bit of a warning sign, right? So I think the question is, what was the blip? Was June the blip? Or was the last three months of strong hiring the blip that we got? And I think we just need more that's such a boring answer. Such a Kevin Warsh answer. We need more data. We need to not over-index on a single month of data. Well, speaking of Kevin Sudeep, Crystal Ball, the next few interest rate setting meetings for me. Like, are we raising, cutting, holding? It kind of feels like we can go in any direction.

Yeah, the Fed is very clearly going to want a lot more data. They want some trends here that they can operate off of. And the job market is clearly not hot, but it's not in a particularly bad place. As Courtney said, the job growth has on average been probably better than expected, because you have to remember that we were not expecting very high payroll growth for the last year and a half, given that immigration is being choked off by the Trump administration quite deliberately. And so to see continued job growth, to see that despite what's happening with immigration, despite all of the chatter about AI replacing workers, none of that has happened yet.

Those are all perhaps longer term concerns. And so for the Fed, they've got to be still concerned about inflation. They've been above their 2% target for five years. it's not a pretty picture in terms of their credibility right now. And yes, the Iran war may be abating, may not in the ceasefire period. But they also have supply shortages, Apple raising prices due to the cost of chips. A lot of things happening that have got to have consumers unsettled. And so the Fed needs to figure out how to get that back on target,

but they don't want to make any rash moves at this very moment. Yeah, that makes sense. I want to take a minute to talk about one of the big headlines of the week. The Supreme Court basically saying, hey, president, go ahead. You can fire the leaders of a lot of these independent agencies, just not when it comes to the Fed. The Fed is special. Courtney, what should we take away from these rulings and what could they mean for economic policy in this country? That was our takeaway in a nutshell when we finally got the slaughter decision and we got the Lisa Cook decision.

the Fed is special in the eyes of the Supreme Court. Fed Governor Lisa Cook can keep her job for now. We got a really kind of full-throated opinion from the Chief Justice about how important the Fed's independence is to the country. However, it feels like Lisa Cook and the Fed's independence generally is still a little bit under threat. What the Supreme Court said, essentially was that the Trump administration could not move forward because they didn't do the right legal mechanisms to prove that, you know, Lisa Cook could be fired for cause.

but they didn't really lay out what for cause means. And so it seems like the Trump administration, and they've said as much, they plan to keep the pressure on Lisa Cook. They want to try to still remove her from the Federal Reserve Board. And it's not totally clear that they'll fail. So a little bit of a mixed decision this week from the Supreme Court. Yeah. What do you think, Sadipe? What do you make of this carve out for the Fed?

You know, all along it seems like the Supreme Court has been. just saying, hey, we don't want to be the Banana Republic here. And that's what happens if you take over a central bank. We've seen this in lots of countries. An independent central bank really only exists because elected and appointed officials want it to be independent. And clearly here, the appointed officials on the Supreme Court recognize that and recognize the damage that would be done, which is not the intent of Congress and having an independent central bank. They don't want these decisions to be just done on a whim like that because who knows who the next president will be and can they wipe everybody out and start start over and then you have hyperinflation.

And that's, again, we've seen it in so many cases around the world when that happens. And the court seems to be just be drawing the line here of like what their comfort level is more than anything else in making this decision. Yeah. We have about a minute. I want to talk about gas prices real quick as we head into this Fourth of July weekend. Prices have come down but still relatively high. Courtney, how much relief should consumers expect here? Maybe a little bit more relief. I think just generally speaking, we've asked the consumer to deal with so much over the last few years. The Iran War and the energy shock and the higher gasoline prices, especially on a holiday weekend, it's just, a lot and we haven't seen demand destruction. We haven't really seen consumers pull back in a way that suggests that, you know, they're under extreme pain. But it's just inflation has been so high

for so long. And even when you take inflation out of the equation, like price levels are significantly higher than they were before the pandemic. And it's a lot for the consumer to digest. So I think economists are watching for that sign of like demand destruction. When do consumers finally say, we're done, I'm fed up? Or do they just keep swallowing higher prices? We'll have to wait and see. Sadiip Reddy is with MS now. Courtney Brown is with Axios.

Thanks, you too. Thanks, Rima. Markets were closed in observance of July 4th, so a road trip is in our future. Details, numbers coming up.

So we're going to be. So we started the show talking about the June jobs report. which was fine. It was all right. Like we said, the economy added 57,000 jobs last month, fewer than expected. But, you know, I want to take a minute now to zoom in a little on another trend in the job market. And that is the labor force participation rate. It's been drifting lower for several years now. So we asked Marketplace's Justin Ho to take a look at what's going on.

The Labor Force participation rate keeps track of how many people are either working or actively looking for work. So if you're retired or if you're a stay-at-home parent or you're a young person who maybe hasn't started looking for a job yet, you just wouldn't be included. That's Laura Ulrich, Director of Economic Research at Indeed. She says one reason the participation rate has been declining is because of the crackdown on immigration. And that's because many immigrants come to the United States specifically for work. As a result, she says the number of immigrants in the labor force can affect the labor force participation rate. So if you have fewer immigrants, overall, you're going to have a lower labor force participation rate. Ulrich says this tends to affect the participation rate for younger workers, since immigrants typically skew younger.

But a bigger issue that's pushing down participation rates is that the population is getting older. Preston Mui is senior economist with the advocacy group Employ America. As you have a larger portion of your population, that's over the age of 65, naturally you're going to have more people that are retired and you're going to have lower labor first participation. Thing is, all those people who've retired still consume goods and services. And Moy says in order to produce those goods and services, we need people to work. So as the population ages, there is potentially an issue where you have fewer workers and you still have to supply a lot of goods and services. Mois says there are a few ways the economy can step up to

meet that demand. For one, more people in their prime working age could enter the labor force. existing workers could also become more productive. So if you can do more with fewer workers, then you need fewer workers in order to supply that consumption. Otherwise, Moey says the economy could slow down. I'm Justin Howe for Marketplace.

We are trying to build a lot right now. More housing, more factories, more data centers. But the thing is, construction companies say they don't have enough people. The trade group Associated Builders and Contractors estimates the industry will need more than 450,000 new workers next year just to keep up. Earlier this year, I went to Durham, North Carolina, to meet some of the people training to do that work. They're with Hope Renovations, a nonprofit that prepares women and non-binary people for careers in the trades.

Before I even walked into the classroom, I could hear them working. The trainees were split into small groups, bent over two-by-fours, while their instructor walked them through how to build wall frames. Slower, harder hits. One of the youngest trainees is Cia Manual. After graduating from college last year with a degree in biology, they hopped around from job to job, working at restaurant. clinics, and retirement centers.

When you were working different jobs after you graduated, what was your financial situation like? After I graduated, can I make a sound effect? Yeah. Probably like, I'd probably do that. With a thumbs down. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I went to all the, like, networking things, and I reached out to my connections, but it was still, like, I wasn't able to get where I wanted to go or where I thought I was supposed to be. Emmanuel likes working with their hands, so they thought, why not check out the trades?

I did think that the financial prospects would be way better. Another thing I'm super over is working a job that takes everything out of me, just to like take home a measly check that might get me to the next month. On the other side of the room, I met 51-year-old Anna Bloodworth. She works in property management, but lately she's been thinking about whether she needs a backup plan. Was there any skill that you learned that you're like, oh, I can do this? I didn't realize that I could. What we're just doing today?

Yeah, what are you doing today? We're just framing a floor, which can just be flipped up and be a wall. You, like, woke up this morning and didn't know how to build a wall and now you do. Yeah, it's amazing. Bloodworth says she started learning trade skills because she's worried about what AI could mean for her real estate job. There's going to be components of my job that in 10 years, maybe less, maybe two, I don't know, are going to be swamped up. So I feel like you have to be smart and you have to learn, okay, these are the things that aren't going to change. Someone's always going to need to be doing these things.

Nationally, more people have been signing up for trade programs and apprenticeships. And at Hope Renovations, founder Nora El Corey Spencer says she's noticing an uptick in white-collar workers. They're telling us they want a sustainable career. They want something that, whether it's economic downturn or a change in political regime, it's not going to affect the amount of work that's out there. Yeah. How, if at all, have you all been impacted? acted by federal policy shifts. Last May, I got an email from the Department of Labor saying that our federal grant was being

canceled because our program no longer effectuated the priorities of this administration. And it specifically pointed to the lines from our grant application that talked about us serving women and people of color and gender expansive folks. So they took away about a third of our program budget. The funding cut was part of a broader federal rollback of programs tied to diversity and equity, even as the administration says it wants to expand apprenticeships and workforce training. Hope Renovations raised back every dollar at lost. And most of its recent grads have gone on to jobs or continuing education and construction.

C. Emmanuel, the recent college grad, told me that even with the new skills, they're staying cautious. I'm hoping that this is something that I can pursue and sustain myself and pour into my community. and also, if that doesn't happen, I'm again prepared to pivot. It's just kind of like the way the world is. I'm not putting my eggs all in one basket. Because if there's anything C and other workers have learned in this economy, it's that it's hard to build stability on ground that keeps shifting. For more stories about life and how money messes with it,

check out the weekly marketplace podcast that I host. It's called This Is Uncomfortable. You can listen wherever you get your podcasts.

Coming up, Taylor is like cooking. If you're not going to make good food for one year. You're just going to make good food for one year. You're just going to mess it up all the time. Who am I to argue with a Taylor? But first, let's do the numbers. U.S. markets were closed today because of the July 4th holiday. A long weekend with an early start means a lot of travelers. AAA counts the holiday travel period from Saturday, June 27th to Sunday, July 5th. About 72 million folks will go at least 50 miles from home. That's a slight increase from last year.

The bulk of travelers will take a road trip, nearly 61 million. And for those hitting the road, like we talked about, they'll get a little relief at the pump. The national average is $3.82 a gallon to fill your tank. A month ago, $4.26. And a year ago, one gallon would set you back $3.10. Diesel today is $4.81. Also, let's not forget about those adventure seekers on buses, trains, and, yes, cruises. That number is about $5 million.

You're listening to Marketplace. Vantage Score. The modern credit score used by 3,700 institutions, including nine of the top 10 banks. Built with trended and alternative data, Vantage Score is more predictive, scoring 33 million more consumers than conventional credit scores. Now accepted by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for conforming mortgages, Vantage Score 4.0 safely unlocks approximately 2.7 million new mortgages and up to $1 trillion in new loans. Better credit score, better data, better mortgage decisions. vantage score.com. You didn't start your business dreaming about payroll tax deadlines.

Yep, there they are. Every quarter sitting on your desk. Gusto handles that part quietly in the background so you can stop dreading the calendar. Gusto is online payroll and benefits software built for small businesses. It's all in one, remote-friendly, and incredibly easy to use so you can pay, hire onboard, and support your team from anywhere. With automatic payroll tax filing, simple direct deposits, health benefits, commuter benefits, workers' comp 401k, you name it, Gusto makes it simple and has options for nearly every budget. And you'll get direct access to certified HR experts to help support you through any tough HR situation.

Try Gusto today at gusto.com slash marketplace and get three months free when you run your first payroll. That's three months of free payroll at gusto.com slash. Marketplace. One more time, gosto.com slash marketplace. Owning real estate has always been smart. It just hasn't always been simple. Now it's both, thanks to the Fundrise Flagship Fund. It's a billion-dollar real estate portfolio designed for long-term investors seeking to strengthen their portfolios with the cash flow and growth potential of private market real estate. Make your first investment and join the hundreds of thousands of Fundrise flagship fund investors by visiting fundrise.com slash marketplace.

Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Fundrise Flagship Fund. This and other information can be found in the fund's perspectives at fundrise.com slash flagship. This is a paid advertisement. This is Marketplace. I'm Rie McRais. You can find them all over New England. They're called country stores.

Though maybe you call it the general store or the village store. Maybe it's just the corner store. Whatever name you give it, they're part convenience stop, part community center, part local institution. And like a lot of local institutions, country stores have been struggling as big box stores and grocery chains have moved in. But some of them are trying to hold on, trying to figure out what the next version of the country store looks like. Jackie Harris from New Hampshire Public Radio has that story. Back in the day, meaning 100 or even 200 years ago, a town's country store was the nearest place for miles, where you could buy nails, eggs, and a cup of coffee, all while catching

up with your neighbors. When telephones first came out, sometimes the country store was the only place you can make a call. There's a lot of emotion that gets evoked with these stores for the town, for people growing up of what they remember. Beth Richards owns the barrel and basket in Hopkinton. Though ownership and names have changed, there's been a store of some kind at the site since 1790. The original wood beams are still in place, and Richard sells penny candy and local maple syrup. Both locals and tourists expect that cozy, nostalgic atmosphere. when they come in. That is something that as an owner I need to balance with what are the economic realities and how things have changed in the world. No one has to go to the store to make a

call anymore. And it's often just as easy to grab a snack or whatever you need at your local gas station. So Richards is adapting. This is our production area for the meal kits. This is where we are modern. So meal kits go out and get delivered. In addition to the meal kits, she's also started an online ordering option for customers. She has to carefully balance expectations from the past and the economic realities of the present. Richard says her profit margins are tight, sometimes as low as half a percent. For another struggling general store in Harrisville, New Hampshire, the solution was to get out of the for-profit realm altogether. You know, we're a historic preservation organization, so running a general store wasn't the original plan.

John Knight is the executive director of Historic Harrisville, a nonprofit that works to preserve the town's historic buildings. It bought the Harrisville General Store in 2008 and hired a manager to operate it like any other shop. But the nonprofit also runs a campaign each year, raising $40,000 to $50,000 specifically for the store. That brings the bottom line to about zero at the end of the year. And since we're a nonprofit, if we're breaking even and serving a community purpose, and that's really considered a success for us. Of course, most country stores operate on a more traditional for-profit model. Demaris Graham and her sister, Mariana Gibaldi, are planning to reopen the Gilson Village store in a couple months.

The last owner closed it a few years ago, but it first opened in the 1800s. This is Graham. I live right down the street and I drive past the store every day. It's just been sitting empty. So when I saw the forensic sign, I thought, this is what I. I'm meant to do. The sisters plan to stock basic grocery and convenience items like milk and toilet paper. The area is rural. Some people in the region have to drive an hour-round trip to get to a grocery store in the nearest city. Logistically, it's easier to have a general

store right down the street that you can get all your essential stuff at. But you can also chat with neighbors and everyone knows everyone. And to me, it's just deeper than going in and out of a store. Graham is counting on what was true 200 years ago to still be true today. There's no need to schlep to the big city when you can just stop by your local country store. I'm Jackie Harris for Marketplace.

One way to describe the tailoring business right now, and forgive the pun here, is that it's feeling some strain at the seams. The number of tailors in this country is down about 30% over the last decade, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Part of that is pretty simple. A lot of tailors are aging out of the business. But demand is still strong. Turns out people still need pants hemmed and waistlines taken in. And that brings us to the next installment of our series, My Economy. My name is Daisy Camarena. We work in an alteration shop called Deep Rose.

My sister and I are the ones who founded six years ago. I was working in an alteration shop, and we just realized alteration had like a big gap. And then we asked to say, hey, I think we can do this. We have been doing this for 20 years. We know how to sew. We know how garment work, measurement, pattern. So I think it's time.

The demand of clothes and alteration and people wanted to feel good and look good. It's increasing. However, hey, we don't have their business. Our closing, you know, We bought the siblings from old people to old people. They were 60 years old. No, sorry, they were 86 years old.

Teaching how to sew is not exactly teaching how to cut vegetables. You teach five minutes, they are going to cut it even if not as good. Tailoring is like cooking. If you don't know how to cook, you're not going to make good food for one year. You're just going to mess it up all the time. So we decide to just hire people who has experience. With the solution we have right now, with the few ones we have, is instead working. The shop is open from 10 in the morning to 6 p.m.

But with them, they come 7 in the morning. Summer is here, and summer is a lot. So we are looking for one more person. They're very happy to work to come 7 in the morning. They just make more money. But as a business, if they decide to leave or they just change, hey, now you need a backup.

We feel that we are already growing every day, a little bit. At least that is the idea. I don't want to just have a shop that make money. I think that is easy. I am a little bit more ambitious and I think I can do better, which is, hey, let me see what I can do. This is not that hard. You just need to think and to work and everybody need to do that.

And yes, do it, you know? That was Daisy Camarena in Salt Lake City, Utah. You know, we can't make this segment without you, so please tell us about your economy over on Marketplace.org.

This final note on the way out today can file it under, yeah, yeah, no, that sounds about right. As long weekend gets underway, a new report out from Equal Futures, that's a nonprofit policy, research group. It says that the U.S. is one of only nine countries in the world that does not guarantee workers some kind of paid annual leave. The U.S. is the only major economy in the bunch. Most countries, according to the report, guarantee at least 20 days of paid annual leave a year. Whereas here in the U.S., whether you get paid vacation, well, that's mostly left up to the employers. Our theme music was composed by B.J. Leatherman, Marketplace's executive producer is Nancy Forgali. Drew Ann Griffith is the chief content officer. Neil Scarborough is the vice president and general manager.

And I'm Rima Jerez. Have a great weekend. Happy 4th. We'll be back on Monday. This is APM. I'm Amy Scott, host of How We Survive, a podcast about the messy business of climate solutions. To a lot of people, geoengineering might seem like a dangerous, outlandish way to play God. But some are embracing this sci-fi-inspired approach as a solution to the climate crisis. We're going to launch some balloons and send them into the stratosphere. A constellation of sunshades would cast an even dimming of shade across the entire Earth. Investing that much in building anything in space creates a whole space economy.

Listen to how we survive on your favorite podcast app.