Will the controversy surrounding Platner deter primary voters?

This message comes from Schwab. At Schwab, you can get everything from self-directed investing to full-service wealth management all in one place. No matter your investing goal, life stage, amount to invest, or know-how, you can invest your way with Schwab. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez at Cover Politics. And I'm Tamara Keith, senior political correspondent. And Maine Public's Kevin Miller is back with us. today. Hi, Kevin. Hi, how are you? All right. So today on the show, Maine has a primary tomorrow. Democrats are hoping to flip the Senate seat there in November to unseat longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins. But Kevin, the frontrunner in this race, Graham Platner, has had a rough couple of weeks. Can you give us a quick recap of what's been going on? Yeah, so Graham Platner has been sort of, I'd say, shrouded in controversy since last fall. I think people may remember the stories about his

insensitive comments on Reddit a few years ago about women and minorities and rural voters. And then, of course, there's this sculling crossbones tattoo on his chest that turns out resembles a Nazi design. But this most recent controversy centers on this New York Times story from last week, in which several of his former romantic partners described kind of really toxic relationships and what some felt as intimidating or even threatening behavior. from him. How has Graham Platner responded to all this? Well, he's acknowledged, as he has, kind of throughout this campaign, that he was frequently not the best boyfriend in the past because he was

in a very dark place, struggling with PTSD from his four combat tours, with Marines in Afghanistan and Iraq. And he was also self-medicating with alcohol. But he's very forcefully denied that he ever behaved aggressively or threateningly towards women. that he knew about the Nazi ties to this tattoo, which also resurfaced in the time story. But Graham Platner is also talking about these stories as showing kind of how his very populist anti-establishment campaign is really hitting a nerve with the powers of B and D.C. on both sides of the aisle. And he says, because if they keep, if they keep him talking about these dark days from his past

before he got therapy and before this kind of redemption tour that he's on, that keeps him from talking about the really populist messages of his campaign, like economic inequality and kind of billionaire class and kind of the corporate executives that work with political cronies to run the political system as he sees it. Yeah, he's really making a quick pivot away from these various controversies to saying, they're just out to get me because I care about health care and I care about millionaires and billionaires having too much money. And, you know, like he is doing the thing that candidates do where they pivot to their campaign message instead of talking about the thing that, you know,

reporters want to ask them about. And I will say that there was another story that dropped about a week ago. And Graham Platner has certainly acknowledged this that early in his marriage, he was sexting with multiple women who were not his wife. He has now talked. He has now talked about how they worked through that. But that type of issue on top of all of these other things has some people concerned that there could be more shoes to drop as this campaign goes on. I will say, like, Planner has been seating this idea for a while since the beginning of his campaign that like the political class, including Democrats, would be coming at him in full force. So I wonder how much like voters were probably prime to hear a lot of stuff. I mean, he has said that

he has a pretty messy past. And so, I mean, I guess I wonder, Kevin, like, are voters primed to hear some allegations like this because Planner has kind of been warning everybody this was coming? Yeah, he has been. And we've seen this since October when former governor Janet Mills entered the race. So Graham Platner got in in August, and his campaign just blew up, blew up in a good way. It just kind of caught fire. And he had a lot of momentum. And then our current governor, Janet Mills, got into the race in October. And I think it's important to note that even though Governor Mills suspended her campaign in late April, she is still on the ballot. And right after she got in, a lot of these controversies started bubbling to the surface. And certainly the Graham Platner campaign

and a lot of speculation was that was coming from the Democrats. It was coming from the Democratic establishment, as they say, that they were generating this dirt on him. And in order to weaken his campaign that way the chosen candidate in the field, Governor Mills, could win the primary intake on Susan Collins. So these are not necessarily new issues for a lot of main voters. They've been hearing about them for months. The details are different. And a lot of times, in a lot of cases, the details are, you know, they're messier, they're dirtier. And it's certainly giving voters pause. But what I'm hearing over and over again when I talk to people is that, you know, condemn his past behavior, but a lot of people kind of put it, look at it that way. They said,

that's his past behavior. He's gone to therapy. He's working out his issues with his wife. This is about politics and policy. I support his policies. I support his call for change in D.C. And that's why they're supporting him. Yeah, I mean, this is a political moment. And Graham Platner isn't the only candidate in this mold. This is a political moment where a lot of voters are very frustrated with the establishment. Certainly, President Trump's victory in 2024 was in large part a backlash against the establishment. And Graham Platner comes from a place of challenging the status quo and challenging the way things

have been. And, you know, he comes from sort of the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party. And there are a lot of people who are like, you know, doing this the way that. the establishment has done it, the incrementalism, it's just not working. It's not enough. And that's really what Graham Platner is speaking to. Like the Janet Mills getting in. She is a moderate Democratic governor. She is an older candidate. She got in. And she just couldn't catch up. Like Graham Platner was already surfing that wave and she's just like paddling and can't catch it. Yeah. I mean, to have to your point, like, Democrats are really upset with

their leaders. The base is not happy. But, you know, I do think it's worth just focusing a little bit on Maine because Maine is a little different, right? This isn't like, you know, New York City where you have like some very fired up, like sort of lefty Dems who vote probably a little different to the rest of the country. Maine Democrats are a little different, right? Like, Kevin, how would you describe like Maine's particular flavor of politics? Well, Maine has always kind of pride it itself on being a more independent state. Yes, it leans to left, it leans blue, but Maine is actually larger than most of the other New England states combined as a pretty small population. But it's a big state. There's a lot of rural areas. So you have really large

areas of the state where you have folks are more conservative. So even when someone's running as a Democrat on a statewide ticket, such as Governor Mills, they tend to be more moderate. They tend to emphasize their willingness to be an independent voice. That's why Susan Collins has managed to stay in that position for so many years, is that she cast herself as a moderate dealmaker, even though she's a Republican. Yeah. And the other senator from Maine is Angus King, who is an independent. He caucuses with the Democrats, but he's an independent. There is a sort of rugged individualism out there that is prized among the electorate. So there's one more thing that makes Maine a little different, and this is my favorite thing to talk about,

which is like systems of voting, like primary systems. So Maine has ranked choice voting. Kevin, how does that affect all this? Yeah, so the rank choice voting process is interesting. Graham Platner appears poised to win the primary. There are actually three candidates on the ballot. Graham Platner, Governor Mills, and another Democrat, David Costello. Because there are three candidates, voters get to rank the candidates in their order of preference. Now, if Graham Platner or any of the other candidates gets more than 50% of the vote, those rankings don't come into effect. Right.

But if no one gets more than 50%, it goes to a ranked choice runoff where voters' second and third choices would come to play. So we're fully expecting that the rank choice process is probably going to play out in one of our congressional seats, as well as in our governor's race. But at this point, it looks like it's probably not going to be a factor in the Senate race unless Graham Platner's support has really cratered over the past couple of weeks. And so far, it doesn't look like that's happened. All right. We're going to take a quick break.

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And Tam, I want to focus on how important winning the Sennessy in Maine is for the Democratic Party. Can you walk us through the stakes here? So there are not a lot of options for Democrats to, win the Senate. Democrats need to take four seats that are currently held by Republicans. This is a tall order. And Maine is seen as one of the potentially easiest pickups. It's a true toss-up where some of these other states like Texas or Iowa or Ohio lean more Republican. Now, of course, Maine and Senator Susan Collins have been like the Great White Whale for Democrats. They've been trying to win that Senate seat for a long time unsuccessfully.

And at the presidential level, the majority of Maine's electoral votes have gone to Democrats. Democrats have won the popular vote. Maine has gone for Democrats at the level of the governor. And yet Susan Collins is someone who has maintained a grip on the seat. Just for instance, the last time she was on the ballot, she beat the Democratic. candidate by more than eight points in the same election that Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by nine points. And so it should be a state that Democrats should be able to pick up. And yet it will inevitably be challenging. I wonder how you guys think that has shaped the primary, though. I think

it's been very interesting to watch Democratic leaders like Chuck Schumer and all this. I wonder how much of his behavior, which you guys can get into, is shaped by the fact that this is seemingly like the most getable, but also the one they really want coming into midterms. Yeah, I'd say that, you know, it's interesting because we've, as you talked about earlier, there's definitely this anti-establishment kind of undercurrent in this election. So when Chuck Schumer got in and encouraged Governor Mills to run, that was viewed by many Democrats as kind of the big D.C. establishment trying to put its finger on the pulse of things here in Maine and to shape the outcome.

And people really push back against that. So I think that's one side of what we're seeing. And then there's also that this is a state that really does lean more to the left. But Susan Collins is such an institution here. Back in 2020 during that last campaign, almost all the polls suggested that the Democrat in that race, who was the House Speaker, she was going to beat Susan Collins. And as Tamara mentioned, Susan Collins won by almost nine points, even despite the fact that she was significantly out. spent by the Democrats. And so there's just a lot of fear of seeing that repeat in 2026, what you saw in 2020. Yeah, I mean, it's fascinating because Mills was the candidate that Chuck

Chuck Schumer wanted. Mills was the candidate that he worked really hard to get her to run, who was seen by establishment Democrats as having a real chance to beat Susan Collins because she had already been elected statewide, because she was known, because she was a, you know, had a, you know, her own brand. And yet by the time she got into the race, it was too late. Graham Platner had all of that momentum and had built this thing. And, you know, I think that there is this thing that's happening in a number of states where, you know, Democratic voters don't love the Democratic Party, but they really, really, really want to beat Trump or anyone associated with Trump. They want to feel like they have some license. And, and, and, you know,

And it's interesting seeing how that's playing out in various primaries because different electorates have different ideas about who the best candidates are, what the right kind of candidate is in this moment. I mean, speaking of Chuck Schumer, though, he is seeming to stand by Platinum and all this, even as more allegations have come up. Yeah. And all of the various progressive heavyweights like Elizabeth Warren and Ro Khanna and Bernie Bernie Sanders are all also standing behind Graham Platner. You know, that just speaks to how important this race is

for Democrats that you could have, you know, the progressive side and the establishment side all sort of falling in line saying, if this guy's our nominee, this guy is our nominee, and we're going to fight for that seat. Another reason why Democrats think Susan Collins might be a little vulnerable here. She's unopposed in the primary. So obviously tomorrow's election is not going to be a tough one her. But let's talk about the general election, which is shaping up to be a little tougher for her recent poll by UMass Lowell and YouGov showed her approval rating underwater. What have you found, Kevin, are the big challenges she's facing trying to keep her seat this year? Well, I think the biggest challenge is definitely her association as a Republican to

President Trump. President Trump is deeply unpopular up here, certainly with Democrats, but with a lot of independence. And one of the other unique things about Maine politics is basically about a third of the voters are Democrats, but just behind them, the second largest voting block are independence. And these are really the key swing voters that decide most close elections here in Maine. And then after that is Republicans are kind of in third. So Susan Collins has been able to win election after election because she's able to pick up both the Republican voters, but also those independent voters. But this year, with everything going on with the Trump administration,

But what about Susan? Susan Collins. Like, they are very focused on getting her out of the Senate. Yeah, a big pool of independent voters is not super helpful to Republicans right now. I mean, polling shows independent voters are breaking for Democrats pretty consistently on most issues right now, which I wonder, I'm just assuming that's going to be in the mix here. Yeah. You know, in Maine, especially, key voting groups are independents and older women. And, and, um, and, So seeing how that plays in this race will be very, very interesting. Like, how big a difference is there between the Democratic primary electorate and the general election, broader electorate in Maine?

And one thing I would add that it's interesting when I'm talking to voters in the Democratic primary, and these are all Democrats. I've talked to quite a few of that key demographic of older women. And so many of them say, look, I'm. I understand that Graham Platner had a troubled background, and he's trying to move past it. But these policy issues are, I support his policy issues, and these are the reasons that I'm voting for Graham Platner. That, and they just want to see someone defeat Susan Collins. That is the overwhelming kind of sentiment among Democrats here is Democrats need to win back control of the Senate in order to confront the Trump administration. And as Tamara mentioned earlier, Maine is one of the most likely pathways to get to that.

Well, speaking of Susan Collins, how is she positioning herself in this race? It's interesting. She actually doesn't really respond to a lot of the controversies of focusing on Graham Platner. She's kind of just letting the outside groups and, you know, the Republican National Committee go after Graham Platner. And she just shows her disapproval. Instead, what she's really been focusing on this year, as she did in 2020, is this role. that she plays on the Senate Appropriations Committee and her ability to bring back huge amounts of money to the state. You know, Senate Appropriations Chair has a lot of power to allocate money, to bring money back to their state, and the Senate Appropriations Chair has a lot of power

to direct money back to their state. And she says over and over again, look, I'm doing this, I'm benefiting me in all these different ways. And if you replace me by a junior senator, a freshman senator, you're going to lose all that influence here in D.C. Well, like much of the political world, tomorrow's going to be very fascinated to watch. So I know a lot of us are going to be tuning in. All right, let's leave it there for today, though. Thank you for joining us, Kevin. Thank you for having me.

I'm Ashley Lopez at Cover Politics. And I'm Tamara Keith, senior political correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

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