AM Show Hr 3 | Inside the Iran Debate: Voices, History & Hard Questions

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It's that time. Lock and load. The Michael Vary Show is on the air. Because sometimes I run out of time, and I want to be clear that I'm accurate. I read all the emails, and it was a lot of emails related to your reactions to Iran and what's going on there. I started with the minority of emails, which was opposition to what's going on in Iran. The vast majority were in favor, and I tried to give voice, although I was in a bit of a rush. But I wanted to be clear. It was probably 20% against 80% in favor. And of those in favor, it generally related to a number of things. Each person has a different thing. One of them was the 1979 hostage taking. One of them was a, we're going on 50 years of Iran's saber rattling and terror causing. A number of folks noted the Iranian involvement, which was heavy and consequential. in Iraq, including family members of individuals and individuals who served in Iraq and some who didn't come home and Iran's heavy involvement there. And a number of things on that level. There was the sense by most people that Trump gave them every opportunity to dial back what is believed to be their nuclear capability, especially putting that on a delivery system to make it like an ICBM where it could do us harm on American shore. America's shores. Is that true or not? I don't know. I don't believe anything I'm told. It doesn't mean that everything's a lie. I just don't believe any of it. I think it's healthier not to believe any of it. And anyway, so now we get to your calls. I just wanted to be fair in kind of synthesizing the results. I will be getting to those emails in the coming days, maybe some of them today. But I just wanted to be fair as to where those numbers were coming out. All right, Robert, you're up. Go ahead. So, Michael, a little bit outside the box. This time is vastly different than what we experienced with the perception of fear. in having to fight against communism. That is not what this is. This is a fear of a hateful, religious, crazy bunch of people who want us dead. And I, for one, I'm over the age of 70. If you rounded up a bunch of us old redneck 70-year-olds and sent us over there, we'd just kill all of these.

They never have, and they're likely never to ever do it. All right. Robert, thank you for the call. Mike, you're up. Hey, sir, I am neither for or against the action, but what I really want to understand is what's the strategic intent? What's the upside for the United States on this? I just don't get that unless it's a squeeze play on China and Russia to manipulate energy prices and deny them Iranian oil. What do you suspect? Do you seem like a thoughtful guy who doesn't jump to conclusions? What do you suspect? I mean, maybe that's it. Is that it you think it's an economic play? It may be an economic and strategic play. It may indeed be a portion of an Israel play. I don't know. I don't get it until Trump or somebody in the administration articulates it for me, I can't support it or not support it. It's just like, what are we doing there? I'm just asking. I'm in question asking mode, so I'm not in any way trying to advocate. Have you watched much of what Trump said? Do you feel like he has laid out the reasoning behind this or not? No, I don't think so. You don't, but have you watched, right? What's that? No, I haven't watched much of it. I've read more than I've watched. You know, I like to think I'm a relatively smart guy when it comes to politics and geopolitics and having been in the energy industry. It's like, what's the upside? What are we doing? Why? Okay. Right? And nukes in the Middle East, who cares? Israelis have nukes, let them pop them off. You know, it's not our play. But you wouldn't count yourself against this. You're just asking questions. You're unclear. Yeah, the question is why? Why now? Why there? Yeah, no, it's interesting. I think one of the theories would be that one of the theories, whether one believes it or not, is that Iran is on the cusp. of a point at which you can't go back, because once they have a capability, you cannot disarm them without considerable costs. Now, you're free to believe that or not, but that's one argument. There is also the argument that, the economic argument, as you noted, that this absolutely cuts China off at the knees.

If you are concerned about a particular incumbent losing who you think has overstayed their welcome or a particular candidate winning because you like what they stand for, don't underestimate your own influence. Post to your social media page. Make it short, succinct, direct. Don't wait for engagement. You may follow accounts that get lots and lots and lots of engagement, and you may not. But that's not the reason you do it. You do it because you might affect vote here and there. And if you drops in the ocean after a period of time add up to be a real movement and a real difference and remind people to vote tomorrow, 7A to 7P, and feel comfortable saying these are your choices, and then turn it off. You don't have to read the comments. People take criticism far too personally, myself included. You don't have to do that. And if someone responds to you in a very nasty fashion, it is perfectly acceptable to block them. You wouldn't let somebody walk into your office or your kitchen while you're cooking and tell you what an idiot you are for your opinion on this or that. You wouldn't just stand there and tolerate that. You'd throw them out. Throw them out of your life. Get comfortable throwing them out of your life. They're not your friend, regardless what social media calls them. They're another person feeling real tough behind the keyboard. And you're not required to listen to them. If people go, oh, you blocked me. I damn sure did. How do you know? Because if you say I blocked you, I blocked you because I block people. Because I don't need you in my life. You don't matter to me. You are not important to me. Well, but, but, yeah, you said something stupid and I don't have to listen to you. But you need it tough enough. Again, you're telling me what I need to do. I don't need to do that. I live my life. I go to bed. I get up and live my life again. You're not part of it. And you don't get to be part of it because I don't want you in my life. But, but no, no, that's just it. You don't understand. You play by different rules and I do. You're going to boycott me now? You can't. I blocked you. I say things on the internet. I don't want to hear what you have to say back. Do you see the difference? I'm just not that into you. And you shouldn't be into people who are negative in your life. Period. End of story. And when you take back that level of control in your life, you'll be shocked and how much more productive you'll be. You'll be shocked at how much less fatigued you are, how much you dread work less, how much you dread going to this or that, less. When you learn to say no to negative influences in your life, you'll be shocked what the weight of the world is off your shoulders. Ashton, your thoughts on Iran or other things related there too. Hey, Michael. I just wanted to get something to our context. 38. Okay. There were no Ashtons, and then all of a sudden there were a bunch of Ashtons, and I don't know why, if it was a movie or what happened, but it just Ashton's everywhere. Yeah, I know. I never hear any other ones. It's like Jeremy, Josh, and Justin. Like, there was a big convention, women that were like, we're going to get drunk and get pregnant tonight, and in nine months, we're going to name our kids, Jeremy, Justin, and Josh. And it just happened. Right. Boom. Anyway, go ahead, Ashton, 38. What do you do?

Um, actually I work at Bucky's. Oh, which one? Uh, it's one of the smaller ones. Oh, you don't want to say which one. You know what? I shouldn't have asked you that because now I don't feel as comfortable. That's on me. No, no, no. This was not the question asked you. Go ahead. I'm sorry. So a little historic context to the whole Iran thing. Uh, I used to be very conservative, but I learned a lot more that a lot of the conservative... Foreign policy is just based on lies. So everybody wants to go back to 1979 and talk about the taking of the hostages. But they forget about 1953 when the CIA overthrew Iran's democratically elected leader so that British Petroleum could go back in there and take the oil. And they had a dictatorship for 26 years until the Iranian people said, we don't want a dictator anymore. And then they took the hostages. First of all, you're absolutely correct. It is something that is not discussed very often. There is a sense that Iran was in a good place in 1979 and the bad people took over. That is not true. You're absolutely right about what happened in 1953. And there was Western involvement, the British really leading the charge on this, there was Western involvement. that propped up a fellow that we could control, and that was Sha'pa Levy. and I think it was Muhammad Reza Pahlavi. And then his son would eventually ascend to what was effectively a throne. Yet quite a similar thing happening in Syria at the time. Yet a similar thing happening in Iraq to a lesser extent. But the Bashar al-Assad's were a similar case in Syria as well. And there was a growing, burning. resentment toward Western British and American involvement in the region. And there is a bitter resentment of our influence to this day, not because of the radical Islamic that rose up out of that, but because of our involvement in propping up individuals who were not such good guys. And I think that is underestimated here. And it is why, you know, Iranian sentiment, I do not believe the majority in Iranian sentiment was for Khomeini, the original Khomeini, I like to put in my Khomeini, that the revolution in 79. But I do think they had enough public support. Because Paula V was considered such a self-dealing bastard, which he was. So we're trying to tell the world now, oh, we got Reza Pahlavi out here. He's a really good guy. We can bring him back. But that's not entirely true. He's a guy that was willing to do what Western interests wanted in exchange for getting to keep.

A lot of money and all the power. He was a puppet. And he was not necessarily a good leader of Iran. The older folks who've left would tolerate him going back. But this is why young people in Iran who don't remember him, who have only lived under Khomeini and the horrible terror of that regime, that's why they're excited for change and don't care who it is just yet. John Bon Jovi's birthday today. How old is he, Jim? Ramon just had to leave us. He's having an emergency colonoscopy. Is it emergency? No, he is having a colonoscopy, isn't he? What's he having a colonoscopy, do you know? Oh, okay. Well, he did have to go to a scheduled... medical appointment. Bon Jovi's only 64. Feels like he should be older than that. Jerry, you're on the Michael Bari Weiss show. Go ahead. Jerry? Yeah, yeah. Greetings for 806 country. Yes, sir. Go ahead. I think you need to, those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it as a true statement. And I would be shocked and disappointed if we hadn't put feelers up to the Chinese saying or assuring them we're not going to check with their oil supply. Are you calling from Lubbock? Okay. I'm on the tractor here. I'm going to hang up at list. Okay. Thank you for your show. All right. Thank you, Jerry. He got nervous. Maybe the feds were on to him. I like a good conspiracy theorist, old-time farmer in a small town. It's my kind of people right there. Yes, indeed. Lubbock, Texas. Shao Reza Pahlavi went to school in Lubbock, Texas at Texas Tech. Interesting little tidbit. So the question is going to be after the strikes. What is Iran going to look like? Is Iraq better for the fall of Hussein? Is Syria better for the fall of Bashar al-Assad? Was Egypt better for the fall of their leadership? What about Libya with Gaddafi? Was Cuba better? Although it's a little more complicated question as to how that overthrow went. You know, one criticism of Trump, the Democrats have to criticize Trump. If he cured cancer, they'd figure out a way to say, you know, that it's going to increase unemployment at the cancer drug clinic. So they're going to have to criticize him whether fairly or not. So what they're going to do now is you take things that he may not be able to control that you can campaign on and you use those to your advantage. That's a natural trick. And one of those is going to be the uncertainty over the future of Iran. And you're talking about a major power militarily. You're talking about a state-run industry of considerable note, talking about a very strategically geopolitically important country. So you've got a lot of foreign interests.

There is going to be an all-out battle. The question is who the forces are going to be in it to take control of Iran. And there is, to be clear, there is a massive retinue of people in this country who are in Trump's ear right now for us to send your boys to be killed there. And the way this kind of thing works out, There's a lot of red-blooded corn-fat Americans. We're going to go over and whoop them my Iranians' ass. In the main, perhaps, yes, on the whole. But we're going to suffer casualties if that happens. And they're going to be dramatic. We suffered a lot of casualties in Iraq, and for that matter, in Afghanistan, at the hands of the Iranis. This is not a lightweight fighting force, whatever that fighting force looks like. It can be Afghanistan where it's balkanized into all sorts of different groups. But these guys live for war. It's all they've ever done. They may not be able to write their own name, but they are worthy adversaries. And go ask the Marcus Latrell in your neighborhood what he thinks. of those boys in the Middle East. It's not a joke. And there is a retinue of people. It is massive who is ready to start sending MREs and body bags and fuel and everything else into Iran. I think it's going to be easier to eliminate the government than... to engage in the latter phase of regime change. This is where regime change becomes very dangerous, especially in an election year, because Trump goes from the success, perceived success in the public. You've got Iranis in the streets of Tehran and basically every major city, Isfahan, you name it. doing the Trump dance. You've got the pretty girls who've replaced the pretty Venezuelan girls. And they're doing the Trump dance and everyone loves it. Loves it. And the people are cheering. And you've got the Iranis here in L.A., big Iranian community. And they're cheering in the streets and in D.C. and they're cheering in the streets. And most Americans are looking around and going, damn, I didn't realize there were so many of y'all here. And they're loving America and they're loving Trump and that bad guy is gone. Okay? That's easier than phase two, which is where you talk about who's actually going to lead the government. Whatever Trump does, he's going to catch hell for. What his immediate reaction has been, much like with Venezuela, is to take the reading of... Who do we have the cell phone number for already? And we can have a conversation with to create some level of stability. And then I'm already seeing New York Times and Washington Post and these guys saying, if they were so bad that we had to destabilize them, why would you allow any of them to remain? Not that they would disagree if Obama did that. I think Trump recognizes what happened in Iraq.

The complete elimination, not just of Saddam Hussein, but the entire Ba'ath party, his entire government was wiped out. You don't simply overnight leave a vacuum that is filled by good government reformers. If the entire government is whacked, somebody is going to move in there. It's sort of like expecting after Sheila Jackson Lee died that now all of a sudden the 18th Congressional District deserves a good congressman. Oh. Oh, Sylvester Turner? I'm not sure Sheila wasn't better. Nah. And then Sylvester dies. Who are we going to get now? Christian Menofi, the guy that Rodney Ellis groomed. To be the Congressman, or Al Green, the guy he, after dumping Menifee, so you've got this guy that's 80 years old caveman, you know, carrying signs that say blacks don't rent, or blacks don't, yeah, blacks don't rent apes. Or blacks rent apes, I guess it said, because the A was covered. I'm not sure you're getting any level of improvement from that. And the reason is. Iran does not have established institutions. This is where the fall of America's institutions comes into play. If you're looking for an analogy, Iran doesn't have universities and political parties and a political culture for over 50 years that could establish replacement that has developed a B-team. They don't have that waiting. I think there is, there are going to be a lot of ups and downs and developments in Iran over the coming days and months. The overnight success of this effort will be forgotten by summer if there is a civil war and particularly if America is putting boots on the ground. And there will be a pull from Iran. An emotional plea to send our boys. And there will be a push in this country. Iranis living in this country of multiple generations are a very influential group. Very, very influent. They are doctors, to a lesser extent, lawyers, businessmen, activists, professors. And there is a deep understandable desire. By the way. Every group of immigrants who comes to this country and the generations after it who identify with their homeland, when I say that they should not be setting American foreign policy, that is not to criticize them. That is to remind you that America is America. It's not a country of Jews from Israel or Saudis from Saudi Arabia or Lebanese or Iranis or Indians or Pakistanis or Chinese or Japanese or Vietnamese or Mexicans. That is to remind you that there are people among us who have a loyalty to another country, even if it's not a primary loyalty.

And that does not always put America's best interest first. And one has to be careful of that. Because most Americans are walking around without this deep connection to a foreign country. There are Indians who live in this country whose primary allegiance is to India, or at least enough of it. Same is true of Pakistan. Same is true of Israel. Same is true of Ukraine. And we've seen what kind of mess that can get us into. And you're going to see that with Iran. The fall of Iran in 79 was a precursor to a lot of human and financial capital coming to Europe, but especially to the United States. And they're very, very successful people, much like the Cubans. A lot of the Cubans who came here. In fact, probably more so per capita. And so those individuals are now going to flex. And they're going to, and they're not necessarily wrong. We just have to be careful to make good decisions for this country. We have to, we have to make decisions that are in our best interest as a nation. And it is my favorite prayer that we not put boots on the ground. That would be a terrible, terrible thing. A terrible, terrible thing. And that would hurt Trump in the polls. It'll give him a boost and then hurt him bad. Hey, it's Ramon. About independence. Webster defines independence as the fact or state of being independent. Freedom from control, influence, support, aid, or the like of others. Let us celebrate today Independence Day.

You no doubt know the stories. Settlers on new land angry at their tyrannical ruler ruling from far away. An act of defiance. A declaration of independence. Fighting a bigger army with the rag tag squad. A general who was quickly losing his troops to injury, disease, famine, and an uncertainty from their troops who would wonder if their leader was one worth following. And of course you remembered the river crossing in the final battle that won the war and changed the United States and her young history forever. Nothing I can say now will give those heroes the proper respect or those stories their proper context. Those words are just beyond me. How must it have finally felt after losing battles, finally miraculously winning? and becoming your own country, gaining independence, able to govern your citizens as they see fit, and not by the hand of some distant ruler. Monuments would be built so that generations would know these battles, statues erected, so generations may be reminded of the soldier's greatness, and the flag. A mighty flag whose existence represented defiance, pride, and mostly its independence. And oh, what a flag. The red, the white, the blue, and its lone star, representing the Republic of Texas. See? The United States story of freedom is a great and powerful story. Arguably, just as great and powerful as the story of another band of rag tags that fought and died for freedom. The general whose tactics were doubted until that final victory. Except this country would be Texas. Sam Houston was losing his soldiers not just to sickness and injury, but to doubt, too. After retreating past the Colorado River, many troops deserted. Finally, on April 21st, the Battle of San Jacino was fought and won by the Texians in only 18 minutes. When time came to bring Texas into the United States, it entered as the 28th state in the Union. Given the U.S. more pushed west and upsetting Mexico so much that they declared war on the United States. The U.S., with Texas now in tow, won that war and added an additional 525,000 square miles to the United States territory, including the land that makes up all or part of present-day Arizona, in California, and Colorado, and Nevada, and New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. Our declaration of independence at Washington on the Brazos was declared on March 2nd, 1836, 152 days after the Battle of Gonzalez, only four days before the fall of the Alamo, and 50 days before Texas ultimately won her independence to San Jacino. Declaring her independence and taking her independence in one month and 19 days later, anyone from Texas... would expect nothing less from Texas. Happy Independence Day, Texans. God certainly has blessed us. And those of you not lucky enough to live in Texas, bless y'all's hearts.

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