Nov. 6: Making Sense Of California’s Prop. 50 Victory
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35 segmentsSupport for this podcast comes from the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative, connecting communities with the resources, infrastructure, and networks to ensure a vibrant local free press. From KVPR in Fresno, this is Central Valley Daily. It's Thursday, November 6th. I'm Elizabeth Arcadian. The dust is still settling on this week's special election on redistricting in California. Democrats knew that this special election needed to be a referendum on President Trump. And they sent a strong message to the rest of the country as a redistricting battle rages on. We speak with the executive director of the Maddie Institute at Fresno State to learn more about what this victory means. But first, these news headlines. Less than a day after California voters overwhelmingly approved of congressional redistricting under Proposition 50, critics of the measure are suing. KVPR's Kerry Klein reports on the lawsuit led by a valley legislator. The federal complaint argues the redrawn district map passed by voters violates the Constitution, specifically the 14th and 15th amendments. Prop 50 was presented to voters as a way for Democrats to offset redistricting efforts in other states that favor Republicans. But the plaintiffs allege district lines were redrawn in favor of Hispanic voters, which they claim is illegal because Hispanics are not a minority in California. Lead plaintiff is Fresno County Republican Assembly member David Tongupew. This whole process was a sham. And with this lawsuit, we will make sure that we will expose it and we will hold those accountable. He and the Republican Party are suing Democratic Gavin Newsom and Secretary of State Shirley Weber. They're asking a panel of judges to block Prop 50 from going into effect. The case could make its way to the Supreme Court. For KvPR News, I'm Carrie Klein. Proposition 50 may have passed in a landslide statewide, but support was not overwhelming everywhere. In fact, according to the latest vote count, most San Joaquin Valley counties voted no, including Kings, Kern, Tulare, and Madera counties. In Merced County, 52% voted yes. And in Fresno County, yeses are barely ahead by only 150 votes in the latest count. An update to the vote is expected sometime today. Fresno County went for President Trump in the 2024 election after historically supporting Democratic presidential candidates. And the passage of Prop 50 in California this week was a resounding win for Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, who was the measure's top supporter. Cap Radio's Laura Fitzgerald reports on what this could mean for Gavin Newsom politically. Gavin Newsom has taken on a national role this year as a Democrat pushing back against the Trump administration, and Prop 50 is just the latest example. We stood tall and we stood firm in response.
to Donald Trump's recklessness. Democratic strategist Jim DeBue served as Gavin Newsom's chief of staff from 2020 to 2023. He and there's a group of Democratic bench, I would say, that are going to be leaders. And he clearly is one of the front-running leaders. DeBu says Gavin Newsom's actions on redistricting represent a shift in the Democratic Party, one he sees as necessary to beat Republicans in elections. I think there's a feeling with Democrats that we have to take this more. high ground when things are happening to us. But we're in a place where if we don't do things the same way they are, we will never be in charge. Looking ahead to a potential presidential run in 2008, Dubu isn't sure this week's win will directly affect Gavin Newsom's chances. But his political future could come into focus depending on how Prop 50 impacts next year's midterm elections. In Sacramento, I'm Laura Fitzgerald. Alcohol-related roadway fatalities have increased in California by more than 50% in the last decade. That's a rate more than twice as steep as the rest of the country. A review of DUI-related deaths by our news partner CalMatters finds that California has some of the weakest DUI laws in the country, and that it gives convicted drivers their licenses back more quickly than other states. California was the birthplace of the modern movement against drunk driving in the 1980s. The city of Fresno is rolling out a new beautification project. Mayor Jerry Dyer announced the so-called Fresno box art pilot program on Wednesday. The project will commission local artists and students to transform ordinary traffic boxes into works of art. The mayor says this effort is part of an ongoing push to beautify Fresno neighborhoods.
KVPR's annual Kern County reception is this month. Join us at Bakersfield Historic Nile Theater on Tuesday, November 18th for a celebration of public radio. Enjoy drinks and appetizers and chat with KVPR staff as we discuss where the station is heading. RS3Ps are required. Head to kvpr.org slash events to reserve your spot. And now to our main story. While votes are still being tallied, it took only seconds for the Associated Press to call a race in favor of Proposition 50 on Tuesday night. The measure to authorize new Democrat-friendly congressional maps for next year's midterms passed by a double-digit margin. The early results still show voters in Merced and Fresno counties voted for the measure, while Tulare, Kings, Madeira, and Kern counties voted against it. We are still getting vote count updates as elections offices process mail-in ballots. But this statewide measure already is having national implications, with the White House looking to temper the win for Democrats. To better understand where we go from here, today I'm speaking with Blake Santee. He's the executive director of the Maddie Institute, a nonpartisan public policy organization. I start by asking Blake if he was surprised that Prop 50 passed. You know, I'm not entirely surprised. I think we saw towards the end of this special election that the opposition just didn't have as much of a coordinated campaign in terms of fundraising, in terms of messaging, as the proponents did, as, you know, Gavin Newsom and the Yes on 50 campaign. They had the resources. They had a unified message. And so I think, you know, as polling was starting to come out, we saw the writing on the wall a little bit. We didn't quite know how much the margin would be, what voter turnout would look like. I think it's hovering at about 35% as we're recording this on Wednesday, you know, the day after the election, but statewide. But I do think that we kind of saw, you know, the yes on 50 gaining a lot of momentum towards the end. I do want to talk about the messaging in just a moment. But first, I'm curious if you've had a chance to go through vote counts or examine how these new congressional maps could affect house races in the valley and just what you're going to be keeping an eye on in the next year. Yeah, I haven't in depth gone through and looked at the granular numbers. But I do think that it will have some potential effects, right? It's certainly, you know, Congressman Valadeo's race is going to be a more left-leaning seat than it currently is. That's certainly going to be, you know, make it more challenging for a Republican to win that seat. Which has already been challenging. Which has already been challenging. You know, we also see a few shifts here and there. We see, you know, Congressman Jim Costa's current district sort of shift up more into Fresno and even grab parts of Clovis. You know, we see Congressman Tom McClintock come more down into Fresno and parts of Clovis that he didn't previously have. And he represents all the way up to El Dorado and northern parts of the Sierras. And then we see Congressman Fong's district sort of shift a little bit farther to the east in Fresno County, lose those parts of Clovis that he had, and, you know, still goes out, grabs parts of Kings County to Larry and Bakersfield and Kern County. And then the 13th district, which Adam Gray represents.
currently, we see that shift farther north up into Stockton and become a safer Democratic seat. So it'll be interesting to see how these play out. And, you know, will we see some challengers even potentially shift to, you know, make these calculations? We're just not sure at this point. Sure. Circling back to some of the messaging leading up to this vote, Gavin Newsom positioned Prop 50 as not just a measure to combat, quote, rigged elections in other states, but also to put a check on President Trump's power. And a report from our news partner, CalMatter, says more money was spent on Prop 50 messaging than any other measure in state history. So what did you make of the messaging and do you think it was effective in getting people out to vote? Well, I saw a recent commentary from Paul Mitchell, who's been sort of cited as one of the key, you know, map drawers behind the new congressional maps in Prop 50. And there was a lot of internal polling going on. You know, there was an article in Politico today that discussed some of the internal polling and conversations that were being held behind the scenes with the governor's staff. And, you know, a really interesting theme that sort of was emerging was voters were generally opposed to. getting rid of the independent redistricting commission. In fact, it was overwhelmingly popular, something like 80%. But on the contrary, a few questions later, voters were in favor of gerrymandering and drawing more left-leaning districts in response to, you know, other states across the country. So it was sort of this weird conundrum, this juxtaposition, this contradiction that voters were holding in their minds, at least most voters. that were polled. And I think that just goes to show that's sort of what shaped the messaging behind this, is that Democrats knew that this special election needed to be a referendum on President Trump. And I think that's really where they put their resources in their messaging. You took the words out of my mouth. My next question was, was this a referendum on President Trump more than just a redistricting vote? I think it was. And California is a blue state. You know, President Trump. did get about 40% of the vote in the last presidential election in California. But still, you know, given that the dynamics, right, and that California is a democratic state, certainly this is sort of like an early referendum on Trump and could, you know, help indicate some trends in 2026, but politics changes so quickly. Things move so fast. And day by day, things are changing. So we don't. We can't actually know how it's going to impact 2026. I was curious. Why do you think Democrats outspent Republicans to message yes on Prop 50 so heavily when we're already such a left-leaning state? Well, I think there are a couple of different factors at play. I think, you know, you had Gavin Newsom as sort of the chief proponent of this measure, right? The face of the measure. And I think that helped in terms of messaging, in terms of... running the ballot measure, running the campaign. Whereas with the opposition, while they weren't exclusively Republicans, certainly, you know, a lot of the opponents were less coordinated, right? There were several different efforts that were going on. At the same time, you had, you know, some independent funders. You had, you know, the former speaker. You had the party. You had other state legislators. You had the former governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. And so.
I think that, you know, folks, when they were trying to look at this, donors, potential donors were trying to evaluate, does this have a shot? And where should I really put my resources? Should I, you know, donate to this no-on-50 campaign? Or should I just save them and donate in the primary and the general election to, you know, congressional candidates because they sort of knew it was a losing battle? So I'm sure that was a calculation as well. I did want to note some conservative voices and critics of Prop 50 are not planning to go away quietly. We learned just before this recording a lawsuit was filed to challenge the measure that's being led by Fresno Assembly member David Tongipa, who's a Republican. Do you see value for critics of Prop 50 in continuing to fight this measure even after voters have approved it? Well, I think it was certainly expected that there would... likely be a lawsuit, right? You know, I think Republicans had even sort of been murmuring about that, you know, when this ballot measure came to fruition. You know, it'll be interesting to see I'm not a legal expert by any means. I'm not an attorney, but I think it'll be interesting to see where it goes. You know, the voters approved this ballot measure. At the end of the day, I think it's going to be interesting to see if the court, you know, upholds it. My guess is that the court will probably uphold the ballot measure because it was something passed by the voters. But, you know, we'll see. Anything can happen, right? And it's sort of hard to tell at this point. Blake Zanty, executive director of the Maddie Institute. Thank you so much. Thank you, Liz. And that is today's show. Today's episode was produced by Jonathan Linden and KVPR with support from the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative. I'm Elizabeth Arcadian. Find the latest local news anytime at kvpr.org.
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