Will Independent Candidates Have a Big Role in Midterms? 5-13-26

Good morning. This is Hampshire today. I am Chris Ryan. I appreciate you joining us for the show. This hour of the program, presented by doing it on college at nec.edu. Overcast, Mill yard, Manchester, here this morning. So we come to you here on this Wednesday. President Trump's still en route to China, where Isha Hosni is for Fox News. Here's the latest from what to expect when it comes to President Trump's... trip to China to meet with President Xi Jinping. The president says that he does not need President Xi Jinping to intervene on his behalf when it comes to the Iran talks securing an Iran deal, although he did say that he's going to have a very long talk with him about Iran as China is the one that stands to benefit the most from the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The president says trade is at the top of the agenda for this historic summit. China wants lower tariffs. They currently have a 10% global tariff that expires. Very shortly here in July, if it's not extended by the president. Prior to President Trump leaving for China, he made some news before boarding Marine 1 when he was asked about how he thinks and what he thinks about when it comes to the American's financial plight in negotiating with Iran. What extent are American financial businesses motivating you to make it be? Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about American financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing. We could not let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all. Joining us right now on the HRCU, your neighbor credit eating guests on to discuss the political ramifications of that statement. John Lappi, professor of political science at Plymouth State University. Good morning, John. Good morning, Harry. I am well. Appreciate joining us for the show, not as well as Democrats who just had the president cut a campaign ad for them. When you listen to that, what do you hear? Yeah, you know, that was very generous of the president to give. Magnanimous, one might say. Very much so. Great gift he gave them. Now, granted, it's more nuanced in context. I don't think most Americans would like it even in context, but it's certainly more nuanced in context. that's being reported by, you know, some outlets. But you can hardly count on the Democrats to keep that in context when they're, you know, any more than Republicans do. So, yeah, a great gift for the Democrats. And the thing is, it's not a one-off. It plays into a narrative about the president of him being focused on other things. You know, and that's already been the case. We see this. and other mistakes the president has made in his messaging on the economy. Last year, talking about affordability being a hoax in his words. And making the same mistakes kind of flabbergastingly and making the same mistakes that Joe Biden did in his presidency, which is just talking up the stock market and employment rates. And he's not wrong, but Biden wasn't wrong either.

what really makes people feel bad about the economy, which is them being squeezed, feeling like their standard of living is declining. Their purchasing power is down, so making the same mistakes as Biden. So the thing for the president is this isn't a one-off. It's playing into a pre-existing narrative. I agree with you about the statement and being taken out of context. I understand what the president was saying there, and he was trying to be emphatic about the point that what matters to him in negotiating with Iran is solely them not having a nuclear weapon, and nothing is going to influence him on that particular stance. But Americans, I think, many of them disagree that he should be taking into account their financial plight. And at the end of the day, I think he does care very much about the American's financial plight and their situation because of how it affects him. And the higher gas prices go, the lower as poll numbers go. The higher the inflation data is the lowers poll numbers go. So this is how politics works. And so the American's financial plight has a significant detrimental impact on his legacy, on his standing, and how he is viewed, which he cares very much about. So the notion that he just doesn't care is not even... not even true. So I don't know why you would, I don't know why you would say that or fall into that trap. When the question's being asked the way that it is, you don't repeat the question. You repeated what she said and said, no, I don't care. I don't care about American's financial play. Like, oh, you've just cut an ad. And I already saw it out there with the number of key political figures like Amy Klobuchar and others are already using it. Already having it up there on social media. And so, again, like this president is his own worst enemy at times and he is his own greatest asset at times. And what is true about this particular incarnation of President Trump in the second term is he's going to beat Trump all the time. And he's going to do and say as he wishes with very little. restraint. And that, I think, is going to be continued to be, you know, problematic. You know, he was snapping at folks yesterday in questioning the price tag of the White House ballroom. You know, he should just basically not talk about the ballroom anymore. I think that a lot of folks would like that and say, you know, I'm focused on other things and move on. Instead, he's fighting about the cost of the White House ballroom and why it's doubled. You know, he can't. It can't help himself a lot of the time. And it's been a tough week. You know, with that yesterday, with on Monday, he was falling asleep in a meeting. It's, it's been a rough week for President Trump, which obviously can turn around here quickly. And of course, you know, Iran coming out and dictating.

terms to the United States on a peace proposal was not great either. And so where do you see things right now for President Trump? Yeah, it's certainly a rough time for the president. And I agree you want to be quiet about the ballroom or he should be quiet about it, the last thing. Yeah, it's certainly been tough for the president. The only good news he's had the last week has really been Republicans kind of winning the gerrymandering wars, seemingly for the ground. But even that's not going to save them in November. I don't know. It could, though. I mean, you look at the numbers on that, John, and they could gain 10 seats off of that. Now, that may not be enough, but that's a pretty significant gain that they have worked in there. Yeah, if the congressional ballot stays the way it's looking right now, the Democrats will still gain the House, but they won't have a huge majority that you might have expected under a more fair map. If Republicans can narrow the gap to even Democrats winning by oh, three-ish points, they could retain control of the House. That's where I see that one. But, you know, as the President, again...

we just seem to be in a continual holding pattern. We're not really seeing a whole lot of progress. We have a ceasefire break down a bit last week. And, you know, we're seeing now in the Senate of Lindsey Graham, some Republicans getting antsy about what is the situation? When is it going to be resolved in Iran? And I don't know that the president has an answer for that right. He does not, and it does not appear to be at the forefront of this conversation with Xi Jinping in China either. Let's get to some campaign politics. Primer results from last night in West Virginia and Nebraska. And a really interesting one in Nebraska. Here is Fox's Chris Foster. Cindy Burbank says she'll drop out of the general election after winning the Democrat Senate primary in Nebraska with about 89% of the vote to William Forbes 11%. He's an anti-abortion pastor accused of running as a Republican plant to take general election votes away from the candidate state Democrats really want, independent Dan Osborne. He came pretty close to winning a Senate race two years ago and is seen as having the best chance to beat incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts in November. Democrats weren't going to put anyone on the primary ballot and added Burbank at the last minute just to beat Forbes when he filed to run. Burbank openly supports Osborne. Nebraska Supreme Court rejected Republican effort to remove her from the primary ballot over the scheme. Chris Foster, Fox News. So what's most interesting to me about that there is obviously you see the gamesmanship involved, and we know about that behind the scenes. We're at the forefront a lot of times with Republicans and Democrats. But you have an independent candidate with a strong, a strong opportunity there. And, you know, we have seen independent candidates infiltrate the Republican Democratic parties and have, you know, significant success. And, you know, basically I look at Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. I've said this for years as basically independent candidates who have infiltrated the Republican Democratic establishments. There is such an strong anti- establishment incumbent sentiment at this point in time. But what will it take in your view for independent candidates like Osborne to become more mainstream and break the stranglehold of the two-party system? Well, we're seeing it right now in Nebraska what it takes, which is for one party to basically acquiesce. Osborne is sort of de facto a democratic candidate in this race.

because the Democrats figure correctly that they can't win a Senate election in Nebraska. The D next to the name will just drag them down. So they're basically going to back the best person they can, which is an independent. So, you know, we've seen that with him. We've seen it with Bernie Sanders in Vermont, basically becoming a Democrat, even if he officially remains an independent. That's the way to succeed in independent in our system is basically getting one party to acquiesce. If you want independence to succeed, you really need a different electoral system than the one we have. When you have a winner-take-all election, whoever gets the most votes wins, that encourages coalition building that results in a two-party system. Where you see independent succeeding even in the U.S. is usually places that have a different system, like using ranked choice voting, for example. where somebody can vote for an independent candidate and not be throwing their vote away because their vote can just go to another candidate once the first round is over. So if you're going to get really viable independence to break the two-party monopoly, then you need a different electoral system. Or you could have a situation where, like say Massachusetts' example, it's a purely hypothetical. In my view, if Seth Moulton ran as an independent against Ed Markey, he'd win. He'd win the general election because Republicans could be okay enough with him. And, you know, Ed Markey has been in office for longer than most people have been alive. And he could have success in my view. Seth Moulton could in the general election. So it could happen both ways. But yes, to me. You have to have a situation where the party, the Republican Party in the case of Massachusetts would acquiesce and say, yeah, we want, we're going to, we're going to stand behind Seth Moulton because we think it's better to have an independent senator who we can work with as opposed to, you know, somebody that we're really opposed to in Ed Markey. And that's a key factor as well. Because of the nature of being independent, it could take on so many different ways, shapes, and forms. It doesn't have to be, you know, the same thing that works in Massachusetts doesn't have to work in Maine. I mean, there's... There is not any clear definition to what independent is. Therefore, you are independent. And so that's what I mentioned to see moving forward is that the conditions are ripe outside of the election process you describe the winner take all for independents to have success. But the question has always been, well, when is that going to happen? Jon Ossoff always appreciate your time. Look forward to talk again soon. Thank you. Have it going. John Lapby, Professor Putco Science at Plymouth State University, joining us on the HRCU, your neighborhood credit union guest line. I am Chris Ryan. This is New Hampshire. You love New Hampshire. Easy access to parks, health care, and social activities that work for your family. That's why AARP is here in the Granite State, with free tips and events to help you make your place safe for years to come. We're also fighting for better streets, lower utility rates, and more, all so you can stay in the neighborhood you love. Get a free AARC.

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