Former National Security Advisor John Bolton 6-3-26
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Transcript
36 segmentsThis is New Hampshire today. I am Chris Ryan. I appreciate you joining us for the show. We continue in this Groundhog Day type of scenario when it comes to the U.S. and the military involvement, the ceasefire, the potential deal in Iran. Here's President Trump a short time ago talking with the New York Posts podcast. He is giving approval because that's the way it has been for a long, long time. His father and then him, I guess it's a succession. But we seem to be getting along quite well. Talking about the Iranian supreme leader who has not been seen or really heard from, now being engaged in discussions when it comes to a potential deal. Here's the latest on Iran from Fox News Radio's foreign correspondent, Jonathan Savage. The attack on the Q8 airport passenger building came as part of back-and-forth attacks between the United States and Iran. The US had fired a missile into the engine room of an oil tanker trying to breach the American blockade and targeted an Iranian... military station on Keshem Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says it went after the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, were told those missiles were intercepted. Meanwhile, two Iranian news agencies report mediated peace negotiations have been paused, claims described by President Trump as false and erroneous. Jonathan Savage, Fox News. Joining us right now for some analysis on the HRC, your neighbor credit union guest on former ambassador to the United Nations under... George W. Bush and former National Security Advisor to President Trump, John Bolton. Good morning, Ambassador John Bolton. Good morning. Glad to be with you. Appreciate joining us. So what do you make of these most recent developments where President Trump is saying that he is communicating in some way, shape, or form with Mujtava Haminae. This, as Iran continues to lob missiles through the Middle East, they say in retaliation for the United States, attacking an oil tanker. Well, it's still pretty clear that there's no agreement on even the issue of opening the Strait of Hormuz. And just to clarify, when Trump says he has a good relationship with the new Supreme Leader. These are not talks between the U.S. and Iran. These are talks through a mediator. So the U.S. gives Pakistan or Gutter a message. They may pass the exact message along or they may interpret it to somebody in Tehran that they're talking to. The Iranians figure out with their responses. They send it back to the Qatari or Pakistani mediator who then relays it to the United States. So this is one of the reasons I think there's confusion. lack of clarity about what exactly the parties are agreeing to because it's not really face-to-face negotiation and that that suits both parties but it also means it's much harder to reach agreement and also he's saying you know he has a really good relationship with him but do you believe he's even spoken with hominey
I think there's zero chance of that. I mean, we don't, we don't frankly know whether Mojtabah hominace, he's been a lot. There have been reports he's under a coma, if not all the time, most of the time. He's not been seen in public, as you said. We've not heard its voice. And so a lot depends on who talks to him and who interprets whatever it is he's able to say. But it's pretty hard. It's not, what is that movie called Weekended Burning? It may not quite be that bad. but it's pretty close to it. So when it comes to where President Trump is at at this point in time and trying to get a deal, he is obviously between a rock and a hard place where he does not want to engage militarily any further. That's pretty clear. He also wants to make sure he has a better deal than the JCPOA because if he does not, he will be significantly criticized. So knowing those things, how would you advise him to move forward? Obviously, we know what your objectives would be in regard to this. But in terms of the president's objectives here, how does he get a better deal than the JCPOA without any further military engagement? Is that possible at this point, given that Iran seems to understand and want to leverage their control of the Strait of Hormuz? Right. Well, I think this is seen by the regime in Iran as a test of will and a test of resolve. And they think they've got stronger resolve than Trump does. They know he's facing an election. They are not, obviously. They know that Americans are worried about the economy and can voice their concerns when they go to the polls in November. The regime couldn't care less about the economy in Iran. They're devoted to preserving itself. So they believe, and I think this assessment is correct. that every day that goes by without a resumption of general hostilities makes it that much harder for Trump to resume hostilities, especially as we get closer to the election. Now, it's not like it's easy on the Iranians. They're still under blockade. They're not earning any money from the sale of oil, no significant money. But they just think they can last longer than Trump can. And I think Trump is worried about that. I think he's very agitated. Did you say he's between a rock and a hard place? He wants a deal, but he knows he can have a bad deal. And he doesn't know what to do. I think the only way that you're going to get, given whatever Trump's limited goals are, and I'm not sure I know what they are, but the only way you're going to get it is to use force, I think, to open the Strait of Hormuz. for traffic from Gulf Arab oil producing countries. Keep the blockade on Iran, but allow the Gulf Arab oil to come out. And if you can... show that Iran's effort to close the straight has failed, not because they voluntarily gave it up, but because we forced our way through. I think that would get them in a more serious mood for negotiation. I still don't trust them, but I think unless they suffer a significant visible defeat, they're going to think they can outlast Trump.
That is John Bolton, former National Security Advisor, President Trump, joining us on the HRC, your neighbor credit union guest on. We heard the Exxon CEO describe us being kind of a perilous place when it comes to oil. And that's, we're in a place where it may only be weeks before we see significant spikes in oil prices. Now, we've seen a drop in the short term, not obviously where it was previous, but a drop compared to the high water mark of that 455. a gallon, how much time do you feel that he has to make a deal before not just significant ramifications are felt from an economic standpoint in this country, but significant global ramifications? Well, that analysis by the Exxon CEO is one that I think is widely shared. Trump does have other options. He could, for example, prohibit the export of American oil. and an effort to, instead of us exporting oil to the rest of the world at $90 a barrel more, keep it all in this country and see if that would lower prices. I've heard that as a suggestion. I think he'd be reluctant to do that. But it's also not entirely clear that we're not getting at least some commerce out of the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz into the international market now. The New York Times reported, I think, that in the past seven days, reported a couple days ago, in the past seven days, some 70 ships had actually gotten out of the strait with American escort. Now, I'm not saying that that means that it's safe to have a mass run on the exits there. And I do think that it's going to remain dangerous, and ship owners and insurance companies are worried about that. And that's why I think military force ultimately would be required. But it also seems... To me, that it demonstrates that Iran is in large part bluffing here on what they think their actual capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz or disrupt traffic across the Gulf, which is really the same thing. Really how great that potential is. And if they're prepared to do that, if they're, for example, they attack the civilian international airport in Kuwait today. If they're prepared to do that, that tells you exactly what this regime is made of and why ultimately... You can make a temporary deal, but if that regime remains and eventually gets to sell oil again, it's just a matter of time before we're right back where we are, where we were before the war began. There's been obviously considerable discussion about how we got to this point. And the commencing of Operation Epic Fury now over three months ago. And Jake Dan Sullivan, former National Security Advisor to President Biden, also key architect of the JCPOA, the Iran nuclear deal back in 2015, was on the show yesterday and talked about the fact that Israel approached the Biden administration and President Biden about a similar action to Operation Epic Fury. Here's that clip. And Israel towards the end pushed President Biden to go ahead and use military action. But President Biden...
basically said, A, I don't think that that is necessary. A diplomatic solution is still possible. And B, if we took military action, exactly what you see happening now, Chris, would happen. The closure of the stray to poor moves, attacks on the Gulf, attacks on American service members. So the question from there, Ambassador John Bolton, is A, during your 18 months, as national security advisor, did Israel... come forward and suggest anything in regard to military action on Iran, A, and B, do you agree with Dan Sullivan's rationale behind the Biden administration not taking action? Well, there is always a lot of conversation across several administrations about whether to use force to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program, no doubt about it. What I tried to do when I was a national security advisor was persuade Trump to accept as our objective, our goal, the elimination of the regime and not just mowing the law, as the Israelis put it, on the nuclear program. their support for international terrorism. And I never succeeded in that. So at least while I was there, no, there was no discussion like Epic Fury. Now, of course, one reason for that is that it was only after the barbaric Hamas attack on Israel, October 7, 2023, that it became clear that Iran's terrorist proxies were really bent on doing what the people in Iran had said for... 47 years, which is death to the little Satan, Israel, followed by death to the great Satan, us. The argument that you can solve this diplomatically obviously has been the Obama and Biden administration policies. It's not going to work. This regime today or before the war is run by authoritarian religious fanatics. And their word is not worth anything, even with... extensive verification. And I think one of the reasons we're at the point we're at now is that Iran watching American presidents over a long period of time just doesn't think we have the resolve to take the regime down. And I think that's why they're acting the way they are today. And in conclusion, what do you make of the Trump Benjamin Netanyahu relationship at this point in time? There's the Axios report, which came out to earlier this week about a phone call in which President Trump allegedly lit up at Benjamin Netanyahu, basically dropping F bombs, saying that he was the reason, the only reason Benjamin Netanyahu was not in jail. And then Trump saying that Israel and Hezbollah had listened to him where it appeared that the fighting has continued. What do you make of their relationship? Well, I think the conversation sounds a lot like Donald Trump, so I think there's probably a lot of validity to those reports. You know, any relationship in wartime is going to have its ups and downs. It's not like Churchill and Roosevelt or best buds the whole way through. They had their disagreements. There's obviously one now. But Marco Rubio, Secretary of State testified yesterday saying that the administration really objected to Iran trying to make the war in Lebanon.
uh, uh, inextricably linked with their negotiations over, uh, the straight of four moves, which seems to me to indicate that, that Trump is still willing to give Israel a good deal of latitude and what it's doing against Hezbollah in Lebanon. As always, appreciate your time. We'll talk soon. Thanks again. John Bolton, former National Security Vice President Trump and UN Ambassador under George W. Bush. I am Chris Ryan. This is New Hampshire today. Meet Bob Menetti. In 2016, he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Bob participated in a clinical trial that included cutting edge radiation therapy and surgery. He's been in remission since completion. I'm Keisha Sharp. Since losing my mother to pancreatic cancer, I've been working to share the kind of state-of-the-art work being done by Stand Up to Cancer and Lust Garden Foundation. To learn more about the latest research, including clinical trials, visit pincreatic cancer collective.org.
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