MIKE JERNIGAN INTERVIEW 6-30-26

Well, yeah, I guess the main point here is you had mentioned that we are getting some ships through, but Iran is still able to kind of fire back. And basically, you're making two points here. One, they're just trying to test their limits. But two, there does seem to be some kind of internal struggle. But then how do we get a deal? How do we end up getting a deal if that's still going on? I mean, is it just we're going to have to really start hitting them hard again? Or will diplomacy work? I spent 30 years as the United States Marine. Any conversation that leads to a pause or a halt or stop in fighting is good. So that's my going in position, right? And having said that and looking at it with my experience is that I, I, I, wars only end. when people quit fighting. They either quit fighting because they no longer want to fight or they quit fighting because they no longer have the ability to fight. And so you make a very good point that it's going to have to be an increase in pain to the Iranians for them to change their behavior. Now, could that be kinetic strikes again? Yes. I remind your listeners that this ceasefire started as a convenience. by President Trump to give the Iranians an opportunity to walk away from their nuclear weapon ambitions. And they're going to need to get the International Atomic Energy Commission in there to inspect and they don't want to. So what we're seeing right now is we're seeing that the Iranians are like this period of not agreement where they're not getting bombed and maybe they're getting some economic relief, but they are not using it. to say, yeah, yeah, we are going to turn away from our death to America chance and our death to Israel chance, and we are going to turn away from our nuclear weapon aspirations. So I think that there's a couple things that will have to happen is we're giving them grace period. The United States and President Trump is extending trust. You know, President Reagan said trust by verified. But now in the Iranians, we're in a situation of verified and trust. And so I think this current period of not fighting, whatever we're going to call it, is a period of giving the Iranians an opportunity to go, look, dude, you said you do it. We'll trust you. Show us. Show us some money. Show us your ability to, you know, come into the world order and do these things to end this. And unfortunately, I think that they're going to have to have some more pain. And that could be economic, which is significant. Their currency, the real, is that trading at its lowest point in history. They, two months ago, created a... 10 million real note. I totally want to get one of those and send them to my nephews, but I'm not going to spend it anywhere. And so they're having a lot of challenges and they've had some pain. And right now they're having a brief remission of the pain, but it's only a test. And time will tell if they pass the test. And I hope they do. But I'm not thinking, I'm hopeful but not optimistic.

Yeah, you're cautiously optimistic is how I've been kind of putting it. Good word. Yeah, it sounds like you're kind of there as well. I'm speaking with Mike Jernigan. He is with the Heritage Foundation. So you had mentioned Hezbollah there. You're right that Iran kind of wants to make Hezbollah a part of any deal. which is really setting a dangerous precedent if that happens because they're basically openly admitting now that they have a foothold in Lebanon. We knew that, but to sort of legitimize a terrorist organization, which Hezbollah is, could be a problem. And Israel is never going to agree to that. So, I mean, how does Hezbollah play into all of this? Yeah, such a great question. And I think the Iranians have put themselves on the horn of a dilemma by President Trump's shrewd decisions. Because as you noted, Iran is trying to begin to extend support for its proxies, the Hutis in Yemen, Hamas, Hezbollah, which we're talking about. And they have tried to say, hey, hey, hey, stop any bombing and attack in Iran and stop attacking. We want this agreement to include anything in Hezbollah. As you noted, Hezbollah is an illegal terrorist organization. It is not a country. And so you have Lebanon and you have Israel and you have Hezbollah. And so the easiest way to think about it, we understand college football. I'm just going to say it out loud. So let's use an example to kind of help understand Hezbollah. Let's look at Ohio State and Michigan. They are rivals. They don't like each other. Okay. Ohio State is in the city of Columbus, Ohio. If people... start throwing rocks at michigan and michigan says stop the government of the city of columbus ohio and the state of ohio have an obligation and have a rule say stop throwing rocks you people who may or may not be connected to ohio state and and that's that's that's israel and lebanon and hezbollah israel and lebanon don't have a problem with each other They both have a problem with Hezbollah that has grown like a tumor inside of Lebanon. And Iran has funded them. And one of the original tenets of this war that we started was that the five of them were, we're going to reduce our Navy. Gone. They had 159 sea-going ships. They have now zero. We're going to reduce their air defenses. We can fly over their country and do whatever we need to and attack whatever we need to. And we see that every few weeks when the Iranians get particularly risky. We're going to degrade the Iranian's ability to produce and launch short and mid-range ballistic missiles. Yeah, they still have some missiles, but a lot of factories are gone. A lot of communications control facilities are gone. And then the other two remaining ones are the prickly ones. Obviously, Iran will never have the capability to develop a nuclear weapon. Yes, that's what we're working on. And the last one was Iran will no longer have the ability to fund and arm its proxies.

specifically Hezbollah. So let me pause there and see what that stimulates you're thinking. Yeah, well, I think you make a good point there. I'm speaking with Mike Jernigan. He is with the Heritage Foundation. Hopefully then. that can be the end result because Iran is trying to make Hezbollah basically a part of the deal where it's the opposite of what you said, where they can still exist. And hopefully we're not going to buy into that game. And it looks like we're not. Before you go, though, I did want to ask you real quick on kind of another subject here. There has been a lot going on between Ukraine and Russia, where it seems like Ukraine is getting the upper hand here. Is there anything new there? Do you think this conflict could be ended anytime soon? Yes, it's going to end. And the question is whether it's soon.

The Ukrainians have done a remarkable thing with advancing drone technology and advancing innovation on the battlefield. They are literally letting the people that are fighting design the weapons, produce the weapons, and pick the targets. And then they have a, let's call it a scholarship fund. They have funding that if you have a good idea and it gets approved and you use it and then it shoots a tank or what we've seen this last week, an extensive attack on the Russians. strategic fuel reserves and so yes to answer your question uh i think the russians are going to run out of money and interest to keep this war going and we have to remember ukraine is fighting for its survival ukraine will cease to exist as a country if they lose this war that's a lot of motivation and so that's uh That's what I think is going to happen. I think the Ukrainians are going to try to outlast the Russians and make it so painful to the Russians that they're going to quit. And oh, by the way, the Iranians are paying attention. And they're like, hey, we have seen if we can make it too inconvenient for a war in America, they'll quit, and then we can still go back to having our nuclear weapon. So we'll have to see what happens. Yeah, that's actually a really good point. We can't send that message to Iran. Exactly. Ukraine is dealing with that, sending that to Russia. We can't be like Russia and just give up in that regard. I understand the point you're making there. Mike Jernigan, really appreciate you coming on the show. I hope to talk to you again in the future. Thank you so much for your analysis. Hey, thanks for having me. Have a great day. We'll be back in a moment right here on Talk Radio 102.3. Scrolling with Haley, join Haley Caronea as she scrolls through the biggest headlines. If you haven't watched this show before, we do blind reactions. I have not seen these videos, so I am seeing them for the first time with all of you. We're going to implement the tinfoil hat time segments and all the stuff you know and love. And I'm going to finish the show and answer some of your questions. Someone asked me, what made you get into podcasting, and I was producing podcasts for other people. And I was like, I could do this for myself. And here I am. Scrolling with Haley, follow and listen on your favorite platform.