The Mark Arum Show 06-26-26 HR 3

1104 on a moderately busy Newsday Friday. Welcome back, friends, Mark Airman crew with you till noon. Coming up in 30 minutes, Dr. Christine Goulet from the Geological Society is going to join us with the horrific developments of those double quakes down in Venezuela. Again, 25,000 people still unaccounted for. Also in 30 minutes, Deborah's got a pair of tickets to see Journey, their last tour. I believe they're playing at State Farm Arena, Deborah, right? So your chance to win those. State Farm. State Farm. Look in the markets. right now, Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P down a smidge. Oil prices continue to drop down 3.93%, $69 a barrel. Nice. Which is shocking to me that the price of oil is now lower than right before the war started. And I can't connect the dots because I still think there's some... fluidity to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. I'm not 100% sure it's going to remain open. Let's talk about the Strait of Hormuz, joining us from London from Bloomberg News, Alex Longley. Alex, as always, appreciate your time. Welcome to the program. Thanks for having me as ever, Mark. I mean, oil price is now lower. A barrel of oil is lower than it was before the start of the war. But I'm still not convinced that the Strait is going to stay open. What is the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz? Well, you might not be convinced that it's going to stay open, but there's certainly been interesting events in the last 24 hours that might serve to sort of contradict your pessimism, my guess. We had the first attack since this interim peace deal was struck, and for the most part, traffic seems to be continuing. We've seen a very, very rapid... ramp up in the number of ships, particularly oil tankers leaving Hormers. And yesterday, as we were hearing about this attack, we ourselves here in London were wondering, you know, is this a kind of a moment where we put the brakes on again? And so far, it's kind of carried on to be a pretty steady flow through Hormers of oil. And that's why you see oil prices under pressure. Tell us about that attack, because I got very few details. What do we know? What don't we know about that attack in the street? Yeah, there's still very little information out there. We know that it was a container ship owned by a Tyroneous company and that the ship continued to just sail on to its destination. Normally when that happens, that implies that there's obviously not some kind of major engine damage or sort of structural damage to the ship that would prevent it from moving. Other than that, we don't know a lot more, but the big impact of this attack was that it stopped the IMOs. the International Maritime Organization, who are kind of the main global shipping watchdog, they started this scheme to kind of help ships getting out, and they've now put that on hold. The issue here is plenty of ships have been going irrespective of that scheme. And so whether that may be in the sort of the medium term of the next few days starts to slow down some of that traffic flow through Hummers, we'll just have to wait and see. But as I said before, so far today, we're still seeing ships, and in particular still seeing oil tankers sailing through. Alex, do we know who perpetrated that attack?

We don't yet, and US officials have been very clear to say they're kind of keeping an open mind on it. Obviously, there's been plenty of attacks within the region since the war began, and Iran has been responsible for a lot of them, but as I say, we're kind of keeping, officials have been saying they're keeping an open mind as to what happened with the attack. And the other thing to sort of keep in mind in general with Hormuz is we've got this. You have the wider geopolitical risk environment that is one element, but also there's the issue of mines that were potentially laid during the conflict. And so the risk as well of ships kind of hitting one of those at any given moment. Alex, I want to play a piece of audio from President Trump at a dinner last night at the Rose Garden. Yesterday they took out 19 million barrels of oil that's the most in the history of the street. And the oil prices are dropping like a rock. And you know, as goes oil, so goes everything else, including all of your products. Now, President was right that oil prices are dropping like a rock, but that's hyperbole, right? $19 million barrels of oil the most in the history of the trade. That doesn't hold water, that claim, does it? Yeah, that feels like certainly on the numbers that we have. That doesn't quite hold true. But I think the sort of the sentiment and the direction probably are the right case. My colleague Julian Lee here in London, who's our oil strategist, he was busy crunching the numbers all day yesterday. And he sees Gulf oil flows at 75% of normal levels already. Now, that includes pipelines that were being used as well. But if you kind of have these pipelines on land and ships that have managed to escape through Hummers. um in the last week or so like i say he's at about 75% of normal levels and that would get you to close to 15 million dollars a day of kind of total exports so there's definitely significant volumes of oil coming out but i think i would i would uh i would probably be a seller of the idea that there's 19 million barrels even if it were that i don't think that would be a record right pre-war you know i think they were averaging 20 million barrels Yeah, exactly. And obviously the amount fluctuates over time as well in 2020 when global oil producers were kind of pumping at will and trying to get as many barrels as they could out the ground. You probably saw even more for a brief period of time then. Alex Longley from Bloomberg News joining us live in London here on the market. So relatedly with this memorandum of understanding, the United States lifted the long-sanctioned oil from Iran. They are now to free to sell it globally. I don't know if you have any information of the folks at Bloomberg have gathered, but have they actively started selling that oil and what kind of an economic windfall could that be to Iran? Well, there's a few interesting things with the Iranian oil story. The first one is for a long time those ships and the Iranian oil flows in general have been kind of under lock and key their ships were never signaling and you had to use satellite data and speak to buyers to truly understand where it was going. And already since those waivers, we've seen more Iranian ships turning their signals on and heading out to Asia. I think outside of Asia.

One of the things to keep in mind is that they're still pretty stringent UK and European Union sanctions in place on Iranian or on Iran. And so that's making it hard for kind of buyers in the West to engage if they wanted to with Iranian supplies. And then the other caveat you have is this is a 60-day agreement, right? And who knows what happens after that. And that's another thing keeping lots of Western companies kind of. relatively on the sidelines in terms of the Iranian oil trade. So I suspect it's not firmed up yet, but we suspect that what you're going to see is a sort of a fairly steady stream of flows to China and possibly maybe to one or two other major Asian buyers. But it is unlikely that we'll see it kind of heading to Europe or other Western nations. Alex, you're not prepped for this, but I'm going to dub you our unofficial World Cup correspondent. Any big takeaways thus far in the World Cup? My big takeaway is it's the least I've ever watched of a World Cup, and I'm saying that as someone who normally watches every minute of every game, because between the straight of Hummers and it not being in my time zone is I'm only watching the early games here. But Ecuador were my dark horses, and I was glad to see them get a good result last night. But until then, I don't think they've been doing, they've not been pulling up too many trees. So mostly my hot take is I'm disappointed at Ecuador. So not for lack of interest. It's you're really busy at work and the time difference. That's why you haven't seen much of the World Cup. Exactly. And if it wasn't for the straight of homeless, I'd have probably been staying up late at night every night. So watch as much as I could. Well, tomorrow, Deborah, England's playing tomorrow. England plays Panama tomorrow at 5 p.m. our time. So that's like 11 p.m. for you. You're going to stay up for that, Alex. You've got to stay up for that. Not only am I staying up for it. I'll be meeting a friend at the pub and watching it. Excellent, excellent. Well, enjoy your weekend. Alex, Alex, I really appreciate your time, as always, my friend. Thanks for having me. There you go. Alex Longley in, yeah, you got to stay up. I mean, I was in bed at 7 p.m. so I'm not, but if the United States is playing at 11 p.m. on a weekend. On a Saturday, yeah, yeah. I'm going to do that. All right, so straight and four moves. So we don't know who perpetrated that. Again, it's such a... I'm happy. Listen, don't get me wrong. I am happy that oil prices have dropped so low. And I'm hoping that gas prices will soon follow. But if I'm an investor, I'm still not convinced that the straight is still going to stay open. But what do I know? I'm just a radio slub. I'm not an oil trader. Once in the 80s, I traded frozen orange juice futures and I lost a bundle. Ever since then, I've stopped trying to time the market. Relatedly, Deborah, as far as energy is concerned, this is pretty interesting. America's largest renewable energy project. has been announced or it's just open. Tell us about this. All right. So this is the, they're calling it the largest renewable energy infrastructure. Okay. And it's called Zanzia. It's in New Mexico and Arizona, an area out there. And it's over 3,000 megawatt wind farm. And they're basically saying that at full capacity, this could approximately fuel up a million American homes annually.

and I want you to enjoy the joy that I had. But there was embassies play a big role in the agency. That's crazy. Be careful influencers out there. Be careful. If I didn't know. What this theme song was, too, I never would have guessed. That's the Will and Grace theme song. I guess I never watched that show. I never watched that show either. Sean Hayes was in Will and Grace, apparently. He turns 56 today. Welcome back to the Mark Abrams show. I neglected to pay off. I gave Trent Ocean Spray a homework assignment mid-show to, I was reminiscing about Nathan's hot dogs and specifically their French fries. Have you ever seen them, Deborah? They come in a box. And they have it's like a red fork and you eat them like that. Definitely not. Oh, so good. And I said, Trent, where's the closest Nathan's? How many Nathan's are in Georgia? Trent, what did you uncover, my friend? I uncovered that the only one where you can get them in person is at Concourse B at Hartstall Jackson, but they have two main ghost kitchen locations. What? Where you can just get it ordered to you by Postmates or Uriots. One is in Buckhead. Oh, damn. And one is in Piedmont Midtown. There you go. They're both nearby. I've never seen them on Uber Eats before. All right. That might be good news for all of us. All of us. Speaking of Ocean Spray, I'm not going to play it, but you sent an Instagram clip of a hot dog wrapped in a croissant or something. What is it? Yes. Yes. It looks very good because, I mean, I love hot dogs. Of course you do Ocean Spray. Yes. That's why you were hired to be part of the Mark Air Show. Of course. It is very... What do they call it? It's called a glazance. All right. Now, that's the point I wanted to... Oh, God. All right. I'm 52 years old. And I'm a hot dog purist. I love hot dogs. When did people start referring to hot dogs as glizzies? Oh, what was this? Is that like our younger generation? That's a Gen Zee thing. I remember when we were in New York, like, all I want is a hot dog. All I want is a hot dog. That was me. So I went and got a Subrette's dirty water dog. They're one of my favorite spicy mustard, sourcrow and the red onions. Oh, it's so good. But I'm sorry. I will never. That's my solemn vow to you. I will never refer to as a hot dog as a glizzy. When did that happen? I might have been like COVID post-COVID. Like what happened? It's a recent development, right? It's very recent, very recent. You're talking to Colby Canoli. I don't know if she's a weird eater too. But she, I don't know if she eats hot dogs. But would you and Colby refer to them as glizzies? See, not to say I'm about to go eat a good. No, don't say that. But it's more like a Joan like, oh, you can even glizzy. You don't want to be called. Eating a glizzy. Yeah, you don't want to be called. D.C. 2000s. Right around 2000 and D.C. is the first. Yeah, I don't like it. I'm not a fan. I like Nicknames, obviously. Trent, Ocean Spray. Vinny Bag of Donuts. Vinny drip down south. Vinny. Vinny two apps. Vinny two cups one, Vinny. This morning. Vinny was walking in. He's got two cups. Two cups one Vinny. We won't. Don't Google that. But no, I'm never, ever.

I'm going to refer to as a hot dog as a glissie. That is my Sean Hannity's solemn vow. Never ever. All right, let me get on Uber Eats and see if we can get Nathan's Ghost Kitchen delivered to the station. That'd be a win for everybody. Sabrina is going to give you your news weather and traffic. When we come back, Deborah's got tickets to give away to see Journey, their final tour. And we're going to talk to Dr. Christine Goulet from the Geological Society of America. Really explain to us what happened with those huge earthquakes down in Venezuela. Social media is active through the broadcast. Give me a follow. There'll be no glizzy pictures on Instagram. At Mark Aram, M-A-R-K-A-R-U-M. That was not meant as a double entendre, by the way. You might see Hot Dog. Take it away. 1137 on the Mark Aaron show in just the second, the very latest with those horrific Venezuelan earthquakes. First, some bad news. I tried to order Nathan's hot dogs and French fries for the gang. As Ocean Spray said, they have a ghost kitchen and Buckhead, Deborah. But that ghost kitchen is closed. The closest one is up on Jimmy Carter Boulevard. They're not going to deliver. Well, they would, but it would take forever, and I'm not going to be here, hopefully. So sad news for the hungry staff of the Mark Garrett Show. But does it impact the listeners? This will, though. Deborah's got an amazing pair of tickets to give away. Yeah, tickets to see Journey at State Farm Arena, October. 19th and you were also in the running for the grand prize which is mark's personal seats and they'll do that drawing this weekend oh cool excellent all right giving away my VIP tickets to journey uh it's Ocean Spray screen. Let's do the ninth caller. Caller number nine to 404-8720750. Caller 9 to 404-8720750 wins journey tickets and a chance to win my VIP seats to Journey at State Farm, courtesy of the Mark Aram Show, 955 WSB. All right, now joining us, continue our team coverage of the Venezuelan earthquakes. Dr. Christine Goulet from the U.S. Geological Society. Doctor, good morning. Thanks so much for your time. Hi, good morning. You must have been, you've been slam for the last couple of days, I can imagine, with this series of earthquakes we've seen around. But let's talk about the two in Venezuela. Within a minute of each other, are those two separate earthquakes, doctor, or is that a pre-shock and then a regular earthquake or an earthquake and an aftershock? Do we have any clarification? We are still looking at this, and in a way, I don't want to say it doesn't matter, but the impact is there, and that's for sure. It does look at this point that these are two distinct, very closely spaced in time earthquakes. So then, yeah, the smaller one will be called a foreshock and the large one we call the main shock. It's just a nomenclature for us to know what we're talking about in the sequence.

We will continue to do work and analyzing and try to view inside the earth from the seismic data to see if they occurred on different faults. It could be a very complex rupture in which there is a gap. So the details of that will know more, but definitely it was strong shaking and a long duration and with very strong pulses that seemed to arrive later during the earthquake, which is... Very, very bad for building response. Absolutely. It's very bad. But is it really rare to have two such big substantial earthquakes so close together time-wise? So close together, yes. However large earthquakes, I mean, in this region, similar earthquakes, similar magnitude happened in 1812. It may seem far, but in geologic time, it's not that far. Even last year, they had the sequence of 26.4 in the sixes. We saw this in Turkey in 2023, two big earthquakes, one after the other, here in California in 2019 in Ridgecrest. So it's not unheard of. It can happen because once you have a large earthquake above 7 is large, it releases stress right on that fault that breaks, but it can push more stress in other areas so it triggers another earthquake. We call them doublets. It's just a technology. It's not just a terminology. Again, on this one, we will see if it's really two distinct ones. But definitely, it happens. It's not always. But these things, we see them, you know, fairly regularly. Dr. I'm glad you brought up the earthquakes in Turkey, which were just absolutely horrific. Refresh our memory. How severe as far as Richter scale measurements were that the earthquakes in Turkey? Compare those to the two in Venezuela, if you could. Well, we don't use the Richter scale anymore. It stops at six, so it wouldn't be useful. It doesn't matter. It's called magnitude. Okay. This is one of my pet peeve. I am so sorry. I am so sorry. This is not your fault, Richter, was a famous researcher, and you really advanced the science for us. But it's, we just call them magnitude. Magnitude, okay. Yeah. In Turkey, it was, the larger shock was 7.8, so much larger, and it really overall impacted a larger area than here. But it's a similar fault system. It's also, well, ish.

It's a kind of a similar fault system to what we have in the San Andreas. In the case of Venezuela, if I bring you back to maybe elementary school or high school, you learn about tectonic plates. Venezuela is really at the edge of the two tectonic plates. To the north, you have the curb in plate and to the south. Really, that's where the country starts. the South American plate and they move past each other at about two centimeters a year or so 0.8 inch but they don't move smoothly. They move and they push and there's all this pressure and eventually the crust cannot sustain that stress and it breaks and that's what causes earthquakes and that's what we saw here and yeah. That's what happened. I've seen some amazing videos, you know, in Venezuela. One was there was a middle of a baseball game when the first quake hit and everybody on the field and the stands ran to the middle of the field. I saw scuba divers underwater showing video. It was scary, scary stuff. When you talk about the magnitudes, 7.2 and a 7.5, it seems like, you know, to the average commoner that doesn't know about. all of this that that's just a small increase 7.2 to 7.5 but that's wrong right the 7.5 is exponentially a stronger quake than that 7.2 Yeah, the way the magnitude scale works is if you go from 6 to 7 or 7 to 8, it's 31, 32 times more energy. And I'll provide more insight on that. So it means that every time you go 0.2 more, you kind of double the energy. It doesn't mean you double the shaking. You double the energy released overall. And I think one key point, when people start to look at different pages or maps, they see a earthquake as a point on a map. And we talk about the epicenter. And so if you have a smaller earthquake, a four or a five, a point on a map is reasonable. But when you get to those larger ruptures, especially in the sevens, in high sevens, the rupture is actually happening over 60, 100, 150 kilometers long. And that's why it causes so much damage because all along that fault that ruptures, every point emits waves. So it means you reach a much broader area. So a larger magnitude means stronger shaking, but also a larger area. And that contributes to exposing more of the vulnerable infrastructure and to more debts and economic losses. Losses. Dr. Are the folks in the region given it all clear yet, or there's still a concern that there might be further aftershocks? We do anticipate aftershocks. The probability of larger aftershocks has decreased. We analyze that and update them. We will probably update daily because it's such an important situation. We expect now about the 20 plus percent – sorry, it went down to about 10 percent chance of magnitude 6 or above in the next week. These probabilities will decrease over time, and the number of aftershocks will also decrease.

Very selfish. Go ahead, I'm sorry. Go ahead. No, I just wanted to say in this case here in Venezuela, as it was the case in Turkey, it's very disheartening because what happens in the disaster is these buildings, people live in buildings that are not designed to sustain earthquake shaking. And these disasters are preventable. So what we see is really, it hurts when you spend your life. studying earthquakes and earthquake engineering to see the history repeating itself all the time in people being crushed by collapse structures that should not have been built that way. And you see that technology in like Japan, for instance, where every building has that, not earthquake proof, but can withstand the shaking more than, you know, the structures in Venezuela. All right. Final question, doctor, very selfish one. I'm flying to Peru tomorrow. Do I have to worry about seismic activity in Peru, Machu Picchu, Lima? Or is that far enough away from what's going on in Venezuela? Well, not to be impacted by this event. And I don't want to scare people. That's the last thing I want to do. But earthquakes can happen anywhere around the world at any time. The west coast of South America is prone to large subduction earthquake. Great. I think in Machu Picchu, you'll probably be fine. But the thing is it can happen anytime, anywhere. There are areas are more prone to larger earthquakes than others. And even in Atlanta, you could get some earthquakes there. Oh, yeah. We've had little baby ones, little baby ones, but nothing. Exactly. So, yeah, I don't think in my lifetime will be at a point where I can tell you there's going to be this magnitude tomorrow at this time in this location. You can make a lot of money, though. You could make a lot of money if you could predict that. Exactly, exactly. But the thing is to, I think it's important, especially if you travel, to know what to do during earthquakes. In the U.S., because of our building codes and how we function, we recommend that people drop cover and hold on when the first... feel shaking, not text all your friends and post on social media. Yes, great advice. Protect yourself. But in countries like Mexico to recommend to get out of the buildings, Venezuela probably has the same guidance. So you just have to be aware of your surroundings and be ready to take the right action. Dr. Christine Goulet, Director of the Earthquake Science Center, United States Geological Survey. Dr. Phenomenal Insight, thank you so much for your time. I know this is a tough story to cover. And thank you for helping educating people about the science and the risk of earthquakes. Really appreciate it. I will never reference Richter again in my life. Unless I'm talking about Andy Richter. I guess Andy, but the Richter scales no more, folks. We all learn something. All kidding aside. I mean, the devastation of Venezuela, 3,000 people injured, at least 589 dead, and perhaps the scariest number, 25,000 still. reported missing. Any updates on the Venezuelan earthquakes, of course, we'll give them to you here on 95-5 WSP. Hey, congrats to Germica from Ellenwood. She won our final pair of tickets to see Journey on their final tour. And Germica is now eligible to win my VIP tickets. So good luck, Jermica. Happy 33rd birthday of this talented lady, Ariana Grande, 33. She is.

Funny, talented. Have you seen her impressions? Yeah. Oh, Mayor's so good. Yeah. She is amazing. Speaking of amazing. I didn't think my day could get any better. Payday Friday, vacation Friday, donut Friday. How about puppy Friday? Puppy Friday. Fur kids brought in some puppies. Valencia has already adopted one. Yeah, she's already like mine. Yeah. I've got to talk to Maya. We want another dog. Maya wants a... Doberman, right? Doberman, yeah. But that's so cute. Those puppies are so cute. Real quick, Fridays are for fish, fish Fridays. And it's not just Fridays anymore. Americas are eating more seafood, Deborah. What's going on there? There was a survey done, and Americans seem to see. Seafood's kind of like an end of the week meal. Like it's Friday, we get to go out to enjoy ourselves. What are we going to eat? It used to maybe be fast food or pizza or something. Now it is seafood. And seafood in general, things like shrimp, all kinds of different fish, sushi. People are just loving seafood. It's on a big rise right now. Yeah, I was pescatarian for years. Love seafood. Here's, I mentioned Nathan's hot dogs. Bring back Arthur Treacher's fish and chips. Used to go there at the West Farms Mall in Connecticut. Bring back Arthur Treachers. Let's make it happen. Now you know. because of the Mark Aram Show. The court held 6 to 3 that you cannot make an asylum claim unless you're actually physically present in the United States. That under the law, it says you have to arrive in the country, and that means you actually have to be on the U.S. side of the border, which means that if you are prevented from getting on the U.S. side, you can't make that claim. Stephen Portnoy from ABC. Join us in the nation's capital, breaking down to those four big Supreme Court decisions that pop during yesterday's show. Very interesting stuff from Stephen Portnoy. Now you know. Thank you Gracie is a three to four-year-old giraffe. She's lived at a place called Cedar Hollow Ranch, west of San Antonio, for the entire life, essentially. But for whatever reason, she decided to climb up over a stone slab, over an eight-foot fence after that, and made her way out into the countryside. Jim Ryan, join us from Texas on the search for Gracie, the missing giraffe. Hopefully Gracie is recovered and is unharmed as she fled her habitat there in Texas. Now you know. First attack since interim peace deal was struck, and for the most part, traffic seems to be continuing. We've seen a very, very rapid ramp up in the number of ships, particularly oil tankers leaving Hormuz. And that's why you see oil prices under pressure. Alex Longley joined us live from London from Bloomberg News, updating the Strait of Hormuz and the rocket fall drop of the price of oil nationwide. Now you know, because of the Mark Aram Show.

Are you guys ready for the Mark Aram Starfish show? Vinny had some amazing lines. They're all off mic, though. Vinny, I'm not even going to give it to Vinny. You made Debra and I laugh multiple times. I've got to give one to Fur Kids, bringing in puppies. Thank you, Fur Kids. Dr. Goulet. Fantastic breakdown of the stuff. She gets one. Scott Slade, bonus Slade on a Friday, and Ocean Spray's dad, Frank. Got Trent an Ocean Spray t-shirt. Good job, Frank. Beautiful. Star of the show. Ocean Sprays Dad. All right, I'm going to be on vacation next week, and I don't know what kind of internet access I'm going to have in Machu Picchu, but give me a follow anyway. I'm sure I'll post amazing pictures of me out of breath and eating food at Mark Aram, M-A-R-K-A-R-U-M. Stay safe. Have a great Friday, Atlanta.