Texas Was Just Caught Racially Gerrymandering. Now What?

A federal court just blocked Texas' new congressional district maps. These are the same maps that caused Democrats to flee town, break quorum, and spend nights locked in our capital, the same maps that set off a national redistricting fight, and the same maps that could leave Austin with just one Democratic seat. So today on CityCast Austin, an expert joins me to explain what happens now. It's Thursday, November 20th. I'm Nikki Devon, and this is what Austin's talking about. Hello, I am here today with Eleanor Klobinoff, Law and Politics Reporter for the Texas Tribune. What's up, Eleanor? Thank you for being here. Thanks for having me. Let's get right into it because this is big, big, big news. So we're recording this everyone on Wednesday morning after some pretty big news yesterday. Federal judges ruled two to one to block the new GOP-friendly congressional map. But we know that this is, of course, not the end of the discussion. Just to set the stage, what is the deadline here for this map to be finalized in time for the 26 midterm elections? So the real answer is like we are past that deadline. Technically, the filing period started November 8th, which is like the... period in which candidates can file for, to say, like, what seats they're going to run for, it would be ideal if we had a map already in effect that we knew that would be using. We are 10 days into that period. It's a 30-day period. So we have about three weeks until the December 8th deadline, at which point people would have to say where they're running. So I need to know what maps we're using. So technically, I guess December 8th is the deadline, but the state has... due to court rulings, been known to move some of those deadlines to accommodate legal weirdness. So there is both no deadline and we are past the deadline. Wow. Yeah, so legal weirdness is about right. Yeah, yeah. So digging into this week's ruling, what are some of its main points? What do we need to know? So this ruling, essentially, it's 160 pages. It's like very meticulously documenting what the judges believe is evidence that Texas racially gerrymandered when it drew its new congressional map over the summer. And... You know, there's like a very legally wonky standard for that to say, like, it's not just like, oh, it feels like it's kind of racist or it feels like, oh, it's bad for people of color. It's like a very specific legal standard to prove racial gerrymandering. And they walk through how they believe that Texas's redistricting was motivated by racial goals. And basically the goal to dilute.

the voting power of people of color. Wow. So let's talk about how Austin politicians reacted. I want to know personally right away how Lloyd Doggett reacted. Lloyd Doggett, like, by all accounts, sort of, you know, jumped up and down and kicked his heels. Like, I think this is great news for, you know, being a little hyperbolic, of course. This is a great news for Lloyd Doggett. So Representative Doggett had, in the map they drew in 2025, his district had basically been eradicated, sort of combined and divvied up with Representative Greg Kasar's district. There was a little bit of jostling over, you know, who should get to run again, him or Casar. And. In the end, and my colleague Gabby Byrnebaum did some great reporting on sort of how this happened behind the scenes. But they, you know, basically said like Casar is younger. He sort of is the future of the party. We're going to, he's going to run and Doggett's going to retire. If this 2021 map is what we end up using, if sort of everything reverts back. there's a seat for both of them. And so Doggett gets to run again. He came out and said, you know, to quote Mark Twain, you know, reports of my political demise have been, you know, greatly exaggerated. Hopefully the U.S. Supreme Court will promptly affirm the three-judge district court decision. I'm very fortunate to have the opportunity to continue to represent the only town I've ever called home at a time when democracy faces the greatest challenges that it has ever faced at any point in my lifetime. So he's thrilled by all accounts. What about Congressman Greg Kassar? Yeah, I think similar. I mean, obviously he still had the prospect of a job. So I think a little less of a shift for him. But, you know, I think generally speaking, Democrats feel very validated that a court, you know, sort of agreed with what they've been saying, which is that this was improperly done, that this was not just political sort of gamesmanship, that there was potentially racial motivation behind this. And let's talk about. Governor Greg Abbott. Have we heard from him yet? How did he respond? Yes. So we should say the ruling goes into pretty extensive detail about how Governor Greg Abbott, his comments at the beginning of this process really set the stage for there to be a racial gerrymandering claim, essentially saying like if he hadn't come out and said some of the things he said in the early days of this redistricting process, perhaps we wouldn't be here at all. Wow. And so. Yeah, he took some heat in the ruling, I'll be honest. And so the statement we've heard from him, I mean, as expected, they've appealed this to the Supreme Court. That was sort of the main action item in his statement. But he also said basically any allegations that.

Texas racially discriminated in their maps is like completely, you know, I believe he used the word absurd. So he's firmly rejecting, rejecting that. Of course, as he has to. So, like, I'm going to swing back by on Doggett for a second. So he's 79. And when the map came out pitting him essentially against Qasar, he was kind of pushed to resign. And then, of course, he said he wouldn't seek re-election if it was upheld in court. And I'm curious, do you think he took an easy out there? Like knowing that the map would be disputed in court, do you think that he took the easy way out? I mean, I think he sort of. did what, I think that was essentially his only option, right? Like I think that the winds were sort of shifting. The support was moving behind, Representative Kasar. I think, you know, it feels like ancient history now, but Representative Doggett was the first Democrat to call for President Joe Biden to step down over concerns over his age. And so I think he had sort of backed himself into a little bit of a corner. you know, if he had decided to continue pushing and to challenge a younger representative, make voters choose between Doggett and Qasar. I mean, that's sort of just like a waste of everyone's time and energy and, you know, where the party could be using that money and energy on a more contested seat. And so I think he, I think, sort of took the, you know. sort of the elder statesman way out, right, which is to say, like, I will cede to the younger generation. Of course. I don't think being a Democrat in Texas, you have much hope that things are going to, like, go your way. So I don't know that he thought, like, oh, this will all work out in my favor if I just give it time. Yeah. But now, at least this week, it has. So I love that, you know, you brought this up. the dog is like, okay, so I still got, you know, this dog can still hunt for lack of a better way to say it. And, you know, he's been around for so long, right? And so I'm curious, like, even if it's... And this is just on your opinion. So even if the district, the mapping is left the way it is. And we go back to the 2021 mapping. Like just in general, is it time for Lloyd Doggett to step down? Like just if there was no issues with the maps, if there was nothing happening, or we seeing a general understanding or idea that it might be time for him to move on and try to find somebody, you know, build the bench to try to find somebody else. I mean, I thankfully have not. the political consultants who have to make those kind of decisions. But I will say like what I hear from what I hear from people. I mean, I don't know that there was like a big upswell of like Lloyd Doggett's got to go before this. Like I don't think he's not like, you know.

Diane Feinstein or some of these other people who were like getting really, you know, very like infirm in office. Like I don't think it was that. I think, and you know, I mean, like you said, he's still very involved. He's still very engaged. I think there's also now been a little bit of conversation about certainly in the Texas delegation of losing seniority. Like I think that there's some concern in the other direction that, you know, we've got on the Republican side, Michael McCall is stepping down, you know. of, you know, venerated senior leader of the delegation. Potentially, John Cornyn will not be in the Senate anymore if Ken Paxton beats him. I mean, I think all the focus the last couple of years on age is important. And also, I don't think anyone is saying, like, it should only be like young upstarts in Congress. I mean, that sounds like a mess in my couple of videos. So I think you want like a mix. And like every individual case comes down to that person. But, you know, I don't know that there was a big. Doggett's too old push before it came down to specifically Doggett-Kassar. Do you think that he could face any challengers? Any new challengers now? I think potentially, I mean, I think part of the weirdness of this being all done so last minute is like, I think it might discourage some challengers, right? Like, you, it's not this, like, usual, like, year-long buildup of, like, we got together a committee and we thought about it. And now, but you also might get some, like, weird last-minute entrance because people are suddenly like, well, I wasn't going to challenge Gassar. Maybe I want to challenge it. Like, no idea what the implications of, I mean, we don't even know what map we're using, let alone, like, how individual political players might take this as an opportunity.

So now let's talk timeline. How quickly are we expecting this to go to the Supreme Court and how quickly could this be resolved? How quickly could we have a ruling on this? Right. So it has been appealed to the Supreme Court sort of technically, right? They basically told the Supreme Court we're going to appeal. And there's a couple of steps there. I mean, one is the actual appeal, which could take. any amount of time. And we could talk about that. There's also sort of this interim step in which the Supreme Court may decide to what we call stay the ruling, which basically says, like, we need time to figure out what the heck is going on. And so for now, we're going to go back to the status quo, which confusingly in this case, the status quo is the 2025 map. Right. And basically say the 2025 map, although the court found discriminatory, can remain in effect while we figure out what the heck is going on. Wow. So they could do that. They could also say we're not issuing a stay. The 2021 map remains in effect while we figure out what the heck is going on. And basically that stay in all likelihood will predominate in deciding what map we use just because the timeline is so tight, right? Like there's another option where the Supreme Court says immediately out of the gate. We don't care about this. Leave us alone. The court's ruling stands. Oh, okay. Yeah. All right. So, right. The weird thing about redistricting cases. The Supreme Court generally gets to choose whether or not they even respond to a case, period. They take a very small portion of the cases that are brought to them. Redistricting cases, they are required to issue some kind of answer on. So we will get something. Even if that something is, we don't have time for this. Yeah, right. It could be one word denied. It could be one word affirmed. That's unlikely. But it could be, or it'll be like a ruling. saying, oh, you know, here's why we affirm it. Or it could be, we need to get everybody to D.C., everybody come in front of us, make your arguments. And that is not likely to be before December 8th. And so in that case where, I mean, this is like in 2012, they moved the primary date because we couldn't get a map in place in time. So, like, they can do whatever they want. Yeah, that was going to be my next question. Will they move the date? Sure, maybe. Wow. In 2012, they legitimately did not have a congressional map in effect. And so they were like, well, we can't do an election. So they moved the date to about a month and reopened filing like for one day in February randomly. Wow. Yeah. Wow. Which, again, not our first time as a state facing allegations that our maps are discriminatory and having to get the courts involved. For sure, for sure. And so is the overall expectation that the Supreme Court is going to uphold the 2025 redistricting or do you think side with the court that's like, no, this is racial? I wish I knew. The Supreme Court has been very unpredictable on this. And these cases are really, really.

technical, right? Like I think we sort of think like, oh, the Supreme Court leans conservative. Like they would rule this way. But like this ruling came from a Trump appointed judge. Like these, the technicalities in these cases are often what it, they live and die on. And so it's like, like I saw a lot of people on Twitter saying like, well, if Texas can't do this, why can California? And it's like the details of how you do redistricting and the approach you take and like down to like what neighborhood is drawn within what district. It's really what matters. All matters. And so it all matters. And so I just think like there's a little bit of a misconception that like this will 100% be decided on ideology. And I talked to a legal expert yesterday who said, he said, there are nine people who know what will happen with this case at the Supreme Court. And we are none of them. And it's like, yeah. That is true. I'm going to steal from him. It's so funny. It sounds like. Governor Greg Abbott kind of shot himself in the foot, which is an interesting way to think about this. Like that, you know, maybe shot himself in the foot. But here we are, right? Like, and that's kind of fascinating for me. Because normally he seems to be so slick and like gets his way easily. So this is interesting. And I think he's like by all accounts like a very, very smart person, right? Like he was a Texas Supreme Court justice. He was Texas Attorney General. Like he is, I think, a smart and savvy lawyer. I think this is a case where the Trump Department of Justice really messed up. They sent Texas was by all accounts going to redistrict for political reasons, which weirdly the Supreme Court has said they can do. That's fine. That's legal. But then the DOJ sent this letter saying basically like, and your districts are unconstitutionally racial gerrymanders. And Greg Abbott was like, that's why we're doing this just because of this letter. And once he said that, we've brought race into this process now. Oh, yeah. And if they had just stuck with the unpopular sounding, but legally sound. Just kept your mouth close. Premise of, eh, we did it because Trump asked. Ugh. Another funny thing in the ruling is Greg Abbott gets sort of raked over the coals. But they say, Ken Paxton was kind of right on all of this. Ken Paxton wrote this letter basically saying like, no, no, our districts are completely constitutional. That's not why we're doing this. And they were like, and the ruling says like Ken Paxton apparently trying to like salvage this whole thing, sends this letter. Oh, this is wild. Yeah. So a little bit of a, I think just in terms like public perception of how these sort of political players are perceived in terms of like legal strategist versus sort of more like. partisan ideologue. Some of our leaders have switched roles in this episode. I think it, you know, I know that everyone is very capable and I know, like, I do not definitely want to diminish anyone's.

I don't know if that's the right word to use, but when I think about this, I just think about two friends and one friend has just like stepped in the shit and the other friend is like, this is not what he meant. It's not what he meant. And it makes me giggle. It makes me just like the normalness of it. Like the, you know what I mean? Like that is a situation that we've all been in where we've had a friend like write a check his. you know, his mouth right to check his ass can't handle for like I'm a better way to say it. Can't cash or whatever. And we have to come in and be like, oh, no, no, wait, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, actually. Right. Or we've been the other friend. Whatever way, where you fall onto that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I love that. And I think it's interesting too because it's like, yes, of course, Greg Abbott is like a very smart lawyer and was attorney general. But he's also been governor for 10 years. Yeah. And now a. Ken Paxton's office who wrote that letter, right? They are the ones that have to defend this in court. And so you can tell, like, they are like the lawyers who are currently in it sort of, as you say, like, in the shit being like, please stop, please stop, please stop, please stop. Everyone, could everyone stop talking for one quick second? Let the lawyers do their jobs. Yeah, right, right. And of course, like, that's why we have a governor and attorney general. They have different jobs. And usually that's fine for the attorney general to be the lawyer and the governor to be the politico. It's just like in this case. If everyone, I mean, the judges say, like, this isn't me saying that. The judge says in there, like, if Greg Abbott had not said this, if lawmakers had said this, it's unlikely we would be able to find a racial gerrymandering claim. Wow. Wow. That's so satisfying. I don't know why, but it's so satisfying. But it's also just really, like, to your point, because I think that I am guilty of this, I definitely narrow our politicians down to their ideology all the time. All the time, all the time, all the time. I definitely make them super one-dimensional in that way. And yeah, this is a great reminder that sometimes it's just like, no, no, no. This is just about legal, legal ways that we can make things happen and legal ways that we can make things not happen. And I don't know why that, you know, distinction that you made helps. Yeah, and it's all really complicated. Like I also understand why, like I have a little bit of, like, I mean, sort of like you said, the humanity of like the empathy for the idea that our lawmakers, like, they want to do this in a way that makes, that gets passed and they're kind of like. you know, what sort of the thing, what's the framing we're supposed to use? And when everyone's yelling at them because they're saying it's political, then they say like, well, now, okay, all right, we're going to fix some racial issues. And then it's like, oh, no, it turns out that's the problem. And it's like, I get very tangled up trying to understand redistricting law. Obviously, I'm not an elected official responsible for this. So that's okay. That's more excusable. Exactly. You know, yeah, it's all very complicated. Oh, my goodness. So, okay, now. The New Texas Maps set in motion like a national fight over congressional districts. And so I'm curious, how is that battle looking right now? Are you watching anything that's happening throughout the U.S.? Yeah, I mean, so California redistricted sort of in retaliation to our redistricting. And there's...

Originally, the plan for them was like it was going to be tied to our maps going into effect. But they removed that at the last minute. So they can still redistrict. And again, I hear the criticism people say of like, well, why is it the Texas is not allowed to in California is. And you're like, but California, again, California, they could go through with it. It could get struck down by a court. I'm not saying what they're doing is necessarily legal. But the fact that like they. did this very differently, right? They, like, passed a, the voters passed a proposition. They're, like, moving through this that way. It's there's a little bit more due process, which is one of the things Texas was criticized for. So there is a world in which California ends up with maps that benefit Democrats. We end up with our maps, which, again, do not benefit Democrats, but are not as strongly benefiting Republicans. Right. And then there's a couple other states that are still trying it, but, like, Indiana decided not to redistrict. Like, there's a been some. Some of this plan, Trump's plan to redistrict Republican states across the country, has not gone as smoothly as he was hoping even before this ruling yesterday. Oh, okay. I didn't know that. I'm curious. How expensive are these little fights? I don't know if we fights, disagreements, misunderstandings. How much money does this cost this back and forth? Do we know? That's a great question. I mean, it's not cheap, right? Yeah, it can't be. Yeah. Right. And, like, as a reminder, Texas's 2021 maps are still under legal review. So, like, two weeks before this redistricting process began this summer, all these lawyers for the state were in El Paso for a month for a trial about those maps. What? Which, like, basically became, like, not irrelevant. We still will eventually need a ruling on that, but, like, kind of put on ice. And so it's like... I mean, I went to El Paso for several days to cover this most recent hearing. And that cost the Tribune, like, you know, whatever, a flight and a hotel for several nights and meals. Like, that wasn't cheap. So, like, imagine 25 lawyers for the state. Well, it's probably like a dozen lawyers. That might be overstated. A dozen lawyers for the state, you know, for a month in El Paso for a trial that basically eventually, like almost immediately became irrelevant. And so it's like. This is expensive stuff. Yeah. Yeah. It has to be. And also, I mean, the idea that all of that is happening, I'm not going to say for nothing, but. kind of, kind of, I mean, not, you know, not for nothing. I'm sure in the moment it's not for nothing. But like at this point now, I mean, that's a lot of money being essentially wasted. Maybe we can call it expended, but it's like it's wasted money. And even if the maps go into a fact, I mean, obviously if the maps are struck down entirely, this was for nothing, right? Yeah. We just like did this for nothing. If the maps, even if the maps are upheld, this is to secure the U.S. House for Republicans. This is not about, you know, Texas specifically, right? Right. Texans generally, I think, felt pretty represented. I think that, you know, of course, like there were areas that needed to be redrawn or whatever, but like divvying up these left-leaning districts in Austin among Republican districts is not necessarily a thing that like people were banging down the door to have happen. Yeah.

It's really about national politics. It's about national politics. Are Texans getting served? Yeah, clearly, clearly. Because I think if it was about Texans getting served, we wouldn't be here, honestly. I mean, personally, what I think. And also, it's true. I mean, by, you know, Governor Greg Abbott's own admission. we're here because DOJ told us to be here or because Trump told us to be here. So that does not, that does not sound like someone who is serving his constituents. just to serve as constituents. So what are you keeping your eye on? Like, what are the things that maybe just everyday Austinites should be watching? What should we be paying attention to moving forward, especially as we, like, barrel towards December 8th? I mean, I think right now we're all just watching for the Supreme Court what they do. And I think a lot of this comes down to that. I think it is like... There is so much to pay attention to right now. You know, I was jokingly saying yesterday, like, don't buy any lawn signs yet. Maybe just like wait and see who is in your district before, you know, like I think a lot of candidates are waiting to even declare because it's not clear, you know, what district. anyone's going to be in. And so, and again, a reminder, this is only congressional, right? So state house is what it is. Your state senator is who they are. Statewide governor, attorney general, all of that is statewide. So it's not affected by this. So, you know, I think you can go, you can get all excited about your lawmakers in any position and who, what they're running for, start signing up to volunteer, do all of that. And just wait and see congressionally who. it might, where those lines might fall. There's just, like, going to be a lot of attention in the coming days on, like, what the Supreme Court does in this case. And can the maps go? Yes, no, yes, no. We should say that there's, like, a larger plan afoot to, from conservatives, including conservatives on the Supreme Court, to completely gut many of the racial protections in the Voting Rights Act. That has been. underway for several years. It's a Louisiana case that was just recently heard for the second time last month. We will get a ruling on that this upcoming spring or summer. And so there is this like micro fight happening right now about like what can Texas do in 2026. There's a macro fight about, you know, should we still have protections in the voting rights act? Is the voting rights act still relevant in 2025? And that is a bigger conversation. But we should say like, this is a battle not the war that's happening right now. I like the, this is the battle, not the war. I like that. It helps kind of compartmentalize things a little bit because I think that we get into this place of like, oh God, oh God, oh God, oh God, God, oh God, God. And we forget that we're kind of, it's a marathon. It's a little bit of a marathon, honestly. Eleanor, thank you so much for being here. I really appreciate it.

I'll be honest, when all of this, when I was reading about all of this yesterday, my eyes were kind of glazing over and I was like, okay, here we go with this again. So I appreciate you coming on and explaining me. Yeah, making it relatable. I really do appreciate it. Thank you. Absolutely. Happy to do it. Thanks for having me. That's all for today here on CityCast Austin. You can find links to Eleanor's work in our show notes. And you know what? If you enjoyed this show, tell your friends, rate our show, leave us a review, subscribe to our Hey Austin Newsletter. And if you really love us and you dug this conversation as much as I did, support us. Become our neighbor today at membership.citycast.fm. And we'll be back tomorrow morning with more news from around the city. Bye y'all.